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2024–25 schedule

Revisiting my list of potential participants for the three remaining spots in the Gulf Coast Classic Showcase. Fairleigh Dickinson, Army, and Manhattan are in their own MTE, so that eliminates a bunch of really low level options. A few others like Columbia and Wagner have announced their schedules and are not participating in MTEs this year, so the list is shrinking.

In
73 Richmond (A-10)
99 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
116 Southern Illinois (MVC)
219 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN)
258 Ball State (MAC)

Candidates
95 Cornell (Ivy)
106 Morehead State (OVC)
140 Chattanooga (SoCon)
145 Tarleton State (WAC)
154 Weber State (Big Sky)
164 Bryant (AE)

188 Saint Peter’s (MAAC)
194 Marist (MAAC) - we presumably wouldn't face them since we're already playing
196 Cleveland State (Horizon)
198 Tulsa (AAC)
200 Harvard (Ivy)
222 Georgia State (Sun Belt)
249 Central Connecticut (NEC)
263 Citadel (SoCon)
267 Lehigh (Lehigh)
276 Oral Roberts (Summit)
282 Tennessee State (OVC)
305 Delaware State (MEAC)
330 NJIT (AE)
334 Dartmouth (Ivy)
341 Florida A&M (SWAC)
 
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You guys seem so gloomy. Don't you remember how the NET works and how the Big Ten exploits it. Just beat the shit out of all your opponents and you're fine. 😉 By my calculations, if we just beat them all by 50 or more, we'll be ranked in the top 10!
 
I’d think that the 2nd and 3rd MTE games would often be close to the best games on many teams’ schedules? So would seem a significant missing data point at this point and one which will likely widen the gap between UR and the teams listed above, as well as narrow it with those below. Our 2nd /3rd games won’t move the needle.
totally depends on the MTE. if you're in the Maui Invitational like Dayton, yes those 2 games will help your average.
 
Three more candidates off the MTE board, including two of the better options in Chattanooga and Bryant.

 
I've got a question on NET. is everything really just looked at in quadrants? i.e. if home games against #161 and #353 are both Q4 games, is it better to beat the #353 by 20 points than it is to beat the #161 by 18 points?
 
I've got a question on NET. is everything really just looked at in quadrants? i.e. if home games against #161 and #353 are both Q4 games, is it better to beat the #353 by 20 points than it is to beat the #161 by 18 points?
I would guess the formula and result is better beating the 161 ranked team BUT when it comes down to selection Sunday, and your resume is in front of a human being on the committee - they will be looking at the buckets.
 
Hell of a schedule.

Potentially 7 majors in the OOC (6 on road/neutral), as well as Richmond and Vermont. Duke, Houston, Purdue.
Plus some of the options for the 2 unknown games - UNC, UConn, Michigan ST, Memphis…

Now if we went 10-3 vs that schedule I think we would have a chance at an at large….
 
schedules aren't all complete, but I took what was available so far on D1docket ... excluding non-D1 games and excluding 2nd and 3rd games in MTEs if they're unknown. think they use Torvik rankings but they change from day to day for some reason. averaged the A10 ooc opponent's ranking.

1) Dayton 150
2) Duquesne 151
3) SLU 165
4) UMass 180
5) SJU 183
6) GMU 183
7) VCU 186
8) LaSalle 191
9) URI 195
10) UR 198
11) LUC 208
12) Fordham 210
13) Davidson 230
14) SBU 233
15) GW 270

surprisingly we're not far from the average A10 schedule.
Correct and the A-10 is gonna be in terrible shape as a result. We have very few chances for big statement wins which is the key to getting multiple teams in the tournament.
 
Weber State and Bowling Green are the final two teams in the Cactus Division of the Arizona Tip-Off. Weber would have been a decent option for our MTE, but Bowling Green wasn't a candidate because Ball State is already representing the MAC.

 
Weber State and Bowling Green are the final two teams in the Cactus Division of the Arizona Tip-Off. Weber would have been a decent option for our MTE, but Bowling Green wasn't a candidate because Ball State is already representing the MAC.

I can’t remember what we decided about more than one from a conference. Does Maui have 2 Big 12?

Or is that wrong because teams changing conferences? I wonder if they will make exceptions with so many changes?


I have so many questions…
 
I've got a question on NET. is everything really just looked at in quadrants? i.e. if home games against #161 and #353 are both Q4 games, is it better to beat the #353 by 20 points than it is to beat the #161 by 18 points?
The use of quadrants is my biggest gripe with the NET system. There should never be a significant difference in the calculation because a team is ranked one spot lower but happens to fall in a lower quadrant. Silliness. The sliding scale should be gradual.
 
Since we mentioned Memphis a few times, Penny just let go of his whole set of assistant coaches. Today. He is the only real coach left apparently.

Something is awry over there.

Can we do a schedule swap?
Are we picking up Rick Stansbury as an assistant?
 
I've got a question on NET. is everything really just looked at in quadrants? i.e. if home games against #161 and #353 are both Q4 games, is it better to beat the #353 by 20 points than it is to beat the #161 by 18 points?
Sorting into quadrants is just to make resumes easier for the committee to digest and compare, and isn’t directly used in NET calculations. Beating the #161 team by 18 points will have a much bigger impact on your net than beating the #353 team by 20.
 
Sorting into quadrants is just to make resumes easier for the committee to digest and compare, and isn’t directly used in NET calculations. Beating the #161 team by 18 points will have a much bigger impact on your net than beating the #353 team by 20.
Very true. Problem is human eyes will see a difference. Oh, Team A has one more quadrant 1 win than Team B. The reality could be that the difference between the team they beat could be as little as one position.

There is also a big difference between beating a team in the same quadrant that is 70 spots higher in the rank. Human eyes may not notice.
 
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One way to think about how margin of victory (MOV) impacts NET is that the NET has an assumption about what the MOV of a game SHOULD be based on the current NET ratings of the two teams involved and the location. NET expects the #161 team to be significantly better than the #353 team, and so the MOV should generally be smaller against #161 than #353. If you end up performing better than the expected MOV your NET will improve, if you perform worse your NET will go down. If you perform at expectations NET will pat itself on the back and say I have you ranked perfectly already!
 
I can’t remember what we decided about more than one from a conference. Does Maui have 2 Big 12?

Or is that wrong because teams changing conferences? I wonder if they will make exceptions with so many changes?


I have so many questions…
Yeah, it's technically still in effect, and it was one of the gripes the NCAA had with Players Era claiming it was two separate MTEs at the same location, allowing them to have two from the Big Ten.

But yeah, Colorado changing conferences is what allowed them to have two from the Big 12. They make exceptions for that.

Anyway, Tarleton is now off the board with the Baha Mar Nassau Championship field firming up. It's only 6 teams instead of 8, so I do wonder if our MTE may go the same route as options dwindle.

 
we're not going to lose 5 or 6 with this OOC schedule.
if we do then we were right to schedule softly, because we're not as good as we thought.
 
we're not going to lose 5 or 6 with this OOC schedule.
if we do then we were right to schedule softly, because we're not as good as we thought.
Well, that all feeds back to the mentality. We need to go with the mentality and schedule with the mentality that we are going to be good every year. Mooney and PQ have shown that they can compete and get players in the portal. No reason not to have expectations. Absolutely no reason to think about "schedule softly".
 
agreed, but I don't think it was this soft intentionally. need to do better.
but maybe analytics based on NET says this is the way to go. I don't know.
 
agreed, but I don't think it was this soft intentionally. need to do better.
but maybe analytics based on NET says this is the way to go. I don't know.
Highly doubt we are playing some 3 dimensional chess game with the NET here. Much more likely we just screwed the pooch on the schedule, didn't get into a quality MTE in time, had to settle for some garbage tournament at the last minute, a couple of our better games backed out and we didn't have any contigency plans for when that happened.

Poor planning and poor execution by those in charge of making the schedule. Let's just call a spade a spade.
 
Highly doubt we are playing some 3 dimensional chess game with the NET here. Much more likely we just screwed the pooch on the schedule, didn't get into a quality MTE in time, had to settle for some garbage tournament at the last minute, a couple of our better games backed out and we didn't have any contigency plans for when that happened.

Poor planning and poor execution by those in charge of making the schedule. Let's just call a spade a spade.
probably right. but it does seem like a lot of teams are avoiding playing teams in the 100s and even 200s. the math seems to tell teams to 1) play the top 100 types and 2) fill in the rest with sure wins from the 300 types.

we just skipped the 1st part.
 
Highly doubt we are playing some 3 dimensional chess game with the NET here. Much more likely we just screwed the pooch on the schedule, didn't get into a quality MTE in time, had to settle for some garbage tournament at the last minute, a couple of our better games backed out and we didn't have any contigency plans for when that happened.

Poor planning and poor execution by those in charge of making the schedule. Let's just call a spade a spade.
well thank goodness we were able to hold Auburn to their agreement, imagine this schedule replacing them with Middle Backwoods A&M Community College
 
Highly doubt we are playing some 3 dimensional chess game with the NET here. Much more likely we just screwed the pooch on the schedule, didn't get into a quality MTE in time, had to settle for some garbage tournament at the last minute, a couple of our better games backed out and we didn't have any contigency plans for when that happened.

Poor planning and poor execution by those in charge of making the schedule. Let's just call a spade a spade.

What piece was UR 's own Joe LUNARDI in our next dimensional chess game...Pawn?

imo that's all another reason to go after the real hard schedules. If you are only trying for minimal hard games (and we've never done two road buy games vs. majors in a season so unfortunately I don't think we're trying for those) when u fail too much u end up with bad schedules. If u consistently trying for hard, national schedule when u fail too much u end up with a least solid schedules imo. And again those years when it's too hard...so what...it's still good for the program visibility etc etc. We won't and don't get at large consideration with weak ooc schedules. The evidence is we get in or would have gotten in with hard schedules with lots of majors (wherever u get them). Majors can play chess, they have the league schedule to fall back on, at UR let's play checkers keep it simple u can't game the NET at A10 level the A10 isn't good enough. Cue the just win more strategy. I'm all for it. waiting 20 years and counting.

**I have this in cut & paste mode now and I just change up a few words here & there

really the intentional "schedule softly" u understand a bit for those coaches that are under pressure to win. doesn't apply to Mooney. he has the best job secrity in the country at one of the top basketball programs in the nation.
 

First off hope everyone here has had a wonderful summer so far!!! Of course popping in here seeing the schedule is first priority. o_O

Word that comes to mind is underwhelming. I feel present time it's probably more difficult anyway to get an at-large bid for mids so I usually go into season thinking win conference or more likely the A10 tourney. Funny watching a football game Sat., the announcer used the term power 4. So briefly researching if correct calling for a mid A10 finish in regular season play?

Turning positive I'm excited though with the potential of the roster Mooney and Co has put together for 24-25. Yes we lost King and three other key contributors. Though seeing roster page getting some added size with arguably Dartmouth's best player and good rebounder from AE in Beagle. Plus two good recruits from UConn and Mich dropping to mid-level play. Have no clue on starting 5 but appears Mooney has more total team depth at hand in choosing who top 8-9 rotation to play.

Main player for me expecting/hoping a big leap in play is Walz. Only one play but believe against maybe Joe's where making this turn-around 12 footer so effortlessly not in Quinn's resume. Like his added mobility around the basket and hopefully stays out of foul trouble. More Walz close to the rim and not outside playing as an assist big first. If anybody has seen him practicing this summer, please give me an update?

Okay forget the good, back to the bad and probably more appropriate the ugly. :(. Great get with Auburn but no other P4 opponents? Somebody research for me the last time a non-D1 school was on their OOC schedule? So which home game marking on the calendar for the diehards here is the must see home game. Belmont? FGC? :rolleyes:

Selfishly back to the good or really good. Being retired now in SWFLA, we couldn't be happier seeing below! Funny no set opponents but who cares. Can it be any worse than home OOC?
Nov. 25 vs TBD @ Gulf Coast Showcase (Fort Myers, Fla.)
Nov. 26 vs TBD @ Gulf Coast Showcase (Fort Myers, Fla.)
Nov. 27 vs TBD @ Gulf Coast Showcase (Fort Myers, Fla.)

A few years back I "questioned whether Mooney ever attends the Final Four gathering" feeling not often and was resounding told by posters he does every year. Well reason saying that thinking as many years as a coach why so difficult for Mooney to get many good OOC matchups from rubbing shoulders and hobknobbing while there? Example again 24-25 schedule? :confused:

Maybe get some good mids to show up for the GCS. Anyone when updates show what schools will be participating in Fort Myers, let us know? As least it will be upgraded to Hertz Arena. 👍

GO SPIDERS!












 
It appears Tulsa and Georgia State have joined the Jacksonville Classic (URI's MTE), so that takes two more of the better remaining options off the table for us. Central Connecticut also announced its OOC schedule today and is not participating in an MTE this season.

Oral Roberts announced a 28-game schedule last week, so they could theoretically add an MTE (though the press release gives no indication that's a possibility). They also have a home game against NAIA squad Haskell scheduled right in the middle of our event, so have to assume they are out of the picture.

So we're still looking for 1 or 3 more to join us in Estero, and the list of potential candidates is down to 5.

In
73 Richmond (A-10)
99 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
116 Southern Illinois (MVC)
219 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN)
258 Ball State (MAC)

Candidates
188 Saint Peter’s (MAAC)
263 Citadel (SoCon)
267 Lehigh (Lehigh)
305 Delaware State (MEAC)
334 Dartmouth (Ivy)

Edit: Cornell has a partial 6-game OOC schedule up on their site and they are scheduled to play at Iona on the first day of our MTE and at Syracuse on the last day, so they're likely out unless they can move those games, but I won't cross them off just yet.

Edit 2: Morehead State has an OOC schedule up on their site and they are in an MTE with NJIT and event host Cleveland State. Updating the above list to remove them.

Edit 3: Marist released their schedule a couple of weeks ago and say they're complete at 29 games with no MTE.

Edit 4: Harvard has a 27-game schedule up on their site, which is typical for them. No MTE listed and they host UMass on 11/27, so they're likely out as well, but I'll put them in the question mark category with Cornell. Harvard is definitely out, as 27 games is their max allowed schedule.

Edit 5: Florida A&M announced their schedule yesterday and do not appear to be participating in an MTE. Removing them from the list.
 
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It appears Tulsa and Georgia State have joined the Jacksonville Classic (URI's MTE), so that takes two more of the better remaining options off the table for us. Central Connecticut also announced its OOC schedule today and is not participating in an MTE this season.

Oral Roberts announced a 28-game schedule last week, so they could theoretically add an MTE (though the press release gives no indication that's a possibility). They also have a home game against NAIA squad Haskell scheduled right in the middle of our event, so have to assume they are out of the picture.

So we're still looking for 1 or 3 more to join us in Estero, and the list of potential candidates is down to at most 7 and probably only 5.

In
73 Richmond (A-10)
99 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
116 Southern Illinois (MVC)
219 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN)
258 Ball State (MAC)

Candidates
95 Cornell (Ivy) - out?
188 Saint Peter’s (MAAC)
200 Harvard (Ivy) - out?
263 Citadel (SoCon)
267 Lehigh (Lehigh)
305 Delaware State (MEAC)
334 Dartmouth (Ivy)

Edit: Cornell has a partial 6-game OOC schedule up on their site and they are scheduled to play at Iona on the first day of our MTE, so they're likely out unless they can move that game, but I won't cross them off just yet.

Edit 2: Morehead State has an OOC schedule up on their site and they are in an MTE with NJIT and event host Cleveland State. Updating the above list to remove them.

Edit 3: Marist released their schedule a couple of weeks ago and say they're complete at 29 games with no MTE.

Edit 4: Harvard has a 27-game schedule up on their site, which is typical for them. No MTE listed and they host UMass on 11/27, so they're likely out as well, but I'll put them in the question mark category with Cornell.

Edit 5: Florida A&M announced their schedule yesterday and do not appear to be participating in an MTE. Removing them from the list.
SF, I admire your commitment to finding out what 3 additional crappy team are going to play in our crappy MTE. You are a better man than I.
 
The Ivy League indeed has a lower limit of 27 games, with or without an MTE, so Harvard is definitely out. Given there is no extra-games benefit of being in an MTE for Ivy schools, many opt to skip participating. But sometimes they do, whether it's for ease of scheduling several games in one convenient location or for access to opponents, etc. For example, Brown is hosting a 3-game MTE with UNH, Holy Cross, and Sacred Heart.
 
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Did a little more digging...

All of this is assuming games listed on D1Docket's tracker are indeed happening.

Even though Cornell's official schedule only has 6 OOC games listed, D1Docket is tracking 26 games confirmed for them so far, so they're definitely not doing an MTE.

Saint Peter's has 25 games tracked, so they could still add an MTE. HOWEVER, they are currently scheduled to play at Fairleigh Dickinson on 11/26 in the middle of our MTE.

The Citadel has 25 games on D1Docket, and nothing currently listed as conflicting with our MTE.

Lehigh has 26 games on D1Docket, but are scheduled to play at Saint Francis on 11/26.

Delaware State has 27 games tracked and nothing between Mount St. Mary's on 11/23 and Texas on 11/29, so they're a possibility.

Dartmouth has 24 games tracked and nothing between Marist on 11/19 and BC on 11/29, though they have Le Moyne as a TBA.

So, it looks like the only true possibilities are The Citadel, Delaware State, and Dartmouth. Saint Peter's and Lehigh would need to move previously reported game dates to do it.
 
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