UMBC Retrievers

[MrTbone]

UMBC is coming into Saturday's game with a head of steam. 6-1 as of today with a big game against Messiah (who the heck is Messiah?) tonight.

Mostly low tier victories, although as noted, they did beat Duquesne. Their only loss is to Navy, and they've posted 90+ in three wins.

I can't believe I feel this way, but I guess this is a game we can't sleep on. I was hoping it would give us an opportunity to really get minutes to the young guys, Grant in particular. If we find ourselves in a dogfight, that will say a lot about the state of things within the RC.

 

[Eight Legger]

Prepare to be in a dogfight.

 

[fan2011]

Should be a double digit win for us.

 

[MrTbone]

Should be a double digit win for us.

The operative words being "should be"...

 

[97spiderfan]

I predict this game will come down to the last couple of possessions.

 

[fan2011]

I predict we take an early double digit lead and end up winning by ~20.

 

[MrTbone]

You guys remind me of two old codgers sitting on the porch who can't agree on anything. This is why there is more than one flavor of ice cream.

 

[spider23]

UMBC beat Duquesne 81-72
Duquesne beat Pitt 64-55
Pitt beat Maryland 73-59

By my math UMBC is 32 points better than Maryland.

 

[Eight Legger]

I predict we take an early double digit lead and end up winning by ~20.

I am working up some good ideas for your future avatar, after seeing Lasalle's play so far this year. Getting nervous?

 

[Eight Legger]

UMBC beat Duquesne 81-72
Duquesne beat Pitt 64-55
Pitt beat Maryland 73-59

By my math UMBC is 32 points better than Maryland.

Robert Morris screwed that whole thing up by losing to us, then beating Duquesne.

 

[fan2011]

I am working up some good ideas for your future avatar, after seeing Lasalle's play so far this year. Getting nervous?

Haha, not that nervous yet. I think it will end up being pretty close, both teams look like they are going to be 9-9 to me. La Salle's offense is looking good, boosted by their incredible 3pt shooting so far, but I am not sure how sustainable that will be. Their defense is really bad though.

 

[Ulla1]

Won't be close. Spiders fixin to go on a roll. OSC

 

[fan2011]

UMBC beat Duquesne 81-72
Duquesne beat Pitt 64-55
Pitt beat Maryland 73-59

By my math UMBC is 32 points better than Maryland.

Most people say the transitive property doesn't work in sports. They are all wrong of course. As Eight Legger pointed out, there is more than one path that connects Richmond to UMBC, in fact at this point in the season there are probably hundreds if not thousands.

For example, we beat Hampton by 10, who beat W+M by 10, who beat Presbyterian by 30, who beat Furman by 2, who beat Navy by 33, who beat UMBC by 12. So we are 97 points better than UMBC by this path.

By averaging the results of each individual path you get a very good estimate of the relative strength of the two teams. I have been using this method to rate teams and predict games for a few years now, and though it takes a month or so for enough data to be collected to be meaningful, towards the end of the season it preforms on par with the best of the computer models.

 

[regatw]

Not sure if this is the place for this question.

I signed my brother up for the Spiderlings Club today, anyone know how that works as far as getting the free ticket? The ticket office told me I can pick up the membership card and t-shirt behind sections 10 and 11 on Saturday, so will we have to buy his ticket the first time out so we can get in the building to get those things?

The ticket office is slow in replying, and the site is no help, so I figured I'd try here

 

[urmite]

May I suggest we not allow UMBC to shoot 19-33 from three?

 

[spiderpreacher]

Not sure if this is the place for this question.

I signed my brother up for the Spiderlings Club today, anyone know how that works as far as getting the free ticket? The ticket office told me I can pick up the membership card and t-shirt behind sections 10 and 11 on Saturday, so will we have to buy his ticket the first time out so we can get in the building to get those things?

The ticket office is slow in replying, and the site is no help, so I figured I'd try here

No just go to the ticket window and tell you have a child who is a member of the Spiderlings Club and they will print you a ticket.

 

[UR Fan 2]

If teams continue to play their special matchup zone defense against our free throw shooters while on the line we could continue to struggle.

 

[97spiderfan]

Not sure if this is the place for this question.

I signed my brother up for the Spiderlings Club today, anyone know how that works as far as getting the free ticket? The ticket office told me I can pick up the membership card and t-shirt behind sections 10 and 11 on Saturday, so will we have to buy his ticket the first time out so we can get in the building to get those things?

The ticket office is slow in replying, and the site is no help, so I figured I'd try here

I just call the ticket office and have them leave a ticket for my child at will call. They usually are able to get a seat in the same area as my season tickets. Ticket office never picks up when I call but they always call me back within an hour or two. You don't need to worry about the membership card.

 

[97spiderfan]

You guys remind me of two old codgers sitting on the porch who can't agree on anything. This is why there is more than one flavor of ice cream.

Grumpy old men Get off my lawn 2011, damn young whippersnapper.

 

[PASpider]

Why do we schedule teams like Bucknell that can beat us and hurt our RPI while we don't get much of a boost for beating them? Can we start scheduling some lower tier major conference schools instead?

 

[MrTbone]

Why do we schedule teams like Bucknell that can beat us and hurt our RPI while we don't get much of a boost for beating them? Can we start scheduling some lower tier major conference schools instead?

Mostly because it's difficult to get those games. They often don't want to play a home and home either which I suspect we are often looking for.

Your point is of course valid and it emphasizes how valuable making the tournament is and getting a share of the revenue. VCU is able to buy a ton of home games with decent competition but get the home game benefit.

 

[fan2011]

Why do we schedule teams like Bucknell that can beat us and hurt our RPI while we don't get much of a boost for beating them? Can we start scheduling some lower tier major conference schools instead?

Because scheduling all cupcakes really hurts our RPI. We need a mix 200+ RPI teams (we have way too many this year and it is going to tank our RPI, not that it matters) 100-200 teams and top 100 teams. Teams of ours that are good enough to make the NCAAs should win against teams like Bucknell 75% of the time, even on their home court.

Essentially, we need to play teams like Bucknell in order to have a decent RPI, and if we can't beat them our RPI doesn't matter because we aren't good enough to make the NCAAs.

 

[Eight Legger]

Because scheduling all cupcakes really hurts our RPI. We need a mix 200+ RPI teams (we have way too many this year and it is going to tank our RPI, not that it matters) 100-200 teams and top 100 teams. Teams of ours that are good enough to make the NCAAs should win against teams like Bucknell 75% of the time, even on their home court.

Essentially, we need to play teams like Bucknell in order to have a decent RPI, and if we can't beat them our RPI doesn't matter because we aren't good enough to make the NCAAs.

I agree with this.

Also, do you know who did beat Bucknell? Lasalle!

 

[97spiderfan]

Why do we schedule teams like Bucknell that can beat us and hurt our RPI while we don't get much of a boost for beating them? Can we start scheduling some lower tier major conference schools instead?

I don't know I would prefer to have a team and coach that had the ability to beat a mid level Patriot league squad.

We have a pretty watered down OOC schedule this year and are 4-4 thus far. As Charlie Sheen would say we are "Winning".

 

[97spiderfan]

On the positive side at least we aren't the only Richmond area A-10 squad losing to bottom rung ACC opponents at home.

Not mentioning any names specifically because we aren't supposed to talk about them in here.

 

[fan2011]

On the positive side at least we aren't the only Richmond area A-10 squad losing to bottom rung ACC opponents at home.

Not mentioning any names specifically because we aren't supposed to talk about them in here.

Wake and Georgia Tech are on completely different levels this year. Wake is a mid tier ACC team, GTech and BC are way down in the cellar. I am most impressed with GMU tonight, they destroyed Penn State.

 

[SouthJerseySpiderFan]

Kenpom predictions yes do show Spiders going 9-9 in conf play but if you look at each individual game as a W/L, their record would be 5-13.

Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning
each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.

I'm really looking for more than say 7-11, maybe kenny is thinking if CM stays the course then more losses are evident but he gives the 3 frosh more minutes, then probability rises for a 9-9 record? LOL!

 

[97spiderfan]

Wake and Georgia Tech are on completely different levels this year. Wake is a mid tier ACC team, GTech and BC are way down in the cellar. I am most impressed with GMU tonight, they destroyed Penn State.

Agreed, although I thought Wake was going to be better last year and then the ACC schedule happened and they weren't. Mason's win over Penn State is impressive. Some might scoff at Penn State but they have a mighty impressive freshman class and that program is on the rise. Did not expect Mason to dominate them like they did.

Georgia Tech could be a very bad loss on VCU's resume.

 

[fan2011]

Kenpom predictions yes do show Spiders going 9-9 in conf play but if you look at each individual game as a W/L, their record would be 5-13.

Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning
each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.

I'm really looking for more than say 7-11, maybe kenny is thinking if CM stays the course then more losses are evident but he gives the 3 frosh more minutes, then probability rises for a 9-9 record? LOL!

It really has nothing to do with anything but math, kenpom's site is all algorithmic and the win probabilities are based on nothing other than efficiency margin, no subjective speculation involved. The effect of individual players and playing time distribution are not considered. It is really basic statistics.

There are 262,144 ways our conference schedule could play out, each of which have a certain probability of happening. According to kenpom the single one of those 262,144 which is most likely to happen is us winning 5 games total against Fordham, GMU, Duquesne, GW and SLU, but this scenario only has a 0.003% of actually happening. However, all the other scenarios have an even lower probability of happening.

There are 18 scenarios where we win 1 game, if you add the probabilities of each of those scenarios happening individually together you get the total probability we win 1 game in conference play. There are 8568 scenarios where we only win 5 games, add the probabilities of all those scenarios together and you get the total chance we win 5 games. There are 48,620 scenarios where we win 9 games. Add the probability of each of those individual scenarios together and you have the total probability we win 9 games.

Even though the most likely individual scenario according to kenpom is that we win 5 games, the total probability of all scenarios where we win 5 games is less than the total probability of all scenarios where we win 9 games. Therefor we are more likely to win 9 games than 5 games.

Edit: Upon closer inspection it appears that kenpom does not calculate the probabilities for each scenario, but instead just sums up the win probabilities for each individual game to get a total expected number of wins. That comes out to 8.63 expected wins in conference play.

 

[Ulla1]

It really has nothing to do with anything but math, kenpom's site is all algorithmic and the win probabilities are based on nothing other than efficiency margin, no subjective speculation involved. The effect of individual players and playing time distribution are not considered. It is really basic statistics.

There are 262,144 ways our conference schedule could play out, each of which have a certain probability of happening. According to kenpom the single one of those 262,144 which is most likely to happen is us winning 5 games total against Fordham, GMU, Duquesne, GW and SLU, but this scenario only has a 0.003% of actually happening. However, all the other scenarios have an even lower probability of happening.

There are 18 scenarios where we win 1 game, if you add the probabilities of each of those scenarios happening individually together you get the total probability we win 1 game in conference play. There are 8568 scenarios where we only win 5 games, add the probabilities of all those scenarios together and you get the total chance we win 5 games. There are 48,620 scenarios where we win 9 games. Add the probability of each of those individual scenarios together and you have the total probability we win 9 games.

Even though the most likely individual scenario according to kenpom is that we win 5 games, the total probability of all scenarios where we win 5 games is less than the total probability of all scenarios where we win 9 games. Therefor we are more likely to win 9 games than 5 games.

Aw rite! OSC

 

[MrTbone]

5 wins seems unlikely if history is any indicator. Only in his first two years did CM manage that few wins in conference, it's regularly been at least 7 or more.

Of course, history isn't always a great predictor of the future...

 

[urmite]

It really has nothing to do with anything but math, kenpom's site is all algorithmic and the win probabilities are based on nothing other than efficiency margin, no subjective speculation involved. The effect of individual players and playing time distribution are not considered. It is really basic statistics.

There are 262,144 ways our conference schedule could play out, each of which have a certain probability of happening. According to kenpom the single one of those 262,144 which is most likely to happen is us winning 5 games total against Fordham, GMU, Duquesne, GW and SLU, but this scenario only has a 0.003% of actually happening. However, all the other scenarios have an even lower probability of happening.

There are 18 scenarios where we win 1 game, if you add the probabilities of each of those scenarios happening individually together you get the total probability we win 1 game in conference play. There are 8568 scenarios where we only win 5 games, add the probabilities of all those scenarios together and you get the total chance we win 5 games. There are 48,620 scenarios where we win 9 games. Add the probability of each of those individual scenarios together and you have the total probability we win 9 games.

Even though the most likely individual scenario according to kenpom is that we win 5 games, the total probability of all scenarios where we win 5 games is less than the total probability of all scenarios where we win 9 games. Therefor we are more likely to win 9 games than 5 games.

Edit: Upon closer inspection it appears that kenpom does not calculate the probabilities for each scenario, but instead just sums up the win probabilities for each individual game to get a total expected number of wins. That comes out to 8.63 expected wins in conference play.

You say "...no subjective speculation involved. The effect of individual players and playing time distribution are not considered."

Certainly not directly...but doesn't our peformance the last 8 games have an effect on his probabilty for future games? And doesn't who plays and how much they play have an effect on both our past and future performance?

He may not speculate on any changes, but isn't that a specuation that future performance will be similar to past performance? Or are you considering that an objective instead of subjective speculation?

 

[97spiderfan]

Of course, history isn't always a great predictor of the future...

Oh, I don't know. As I sat in watching the Wake game, I instinctively knew exactly how that game was going to turn out because I've seen countless other games play out that way over the past 5 years.

 

[urmite]

5 wins seems unlikely if history is any indicator. Only in his first two years did CM manage that few wins in conference, it's regularly been at least 7 or more.

Of course, history isn't always a great predictor of the future...

In basic arithmatic it is. In probability it is less so. In human performance and decision making, it is certainy no guarantee.

 

[SpiderTrap]

UMBC - I expect we fall behind early based on some hot shooting from UMBC. Then we battle back in the 2nd half to tie it up and take the lead. From there - it is anyone's guess. Sometimes we have a scoring drought of about 4-6 minutes and the other team takes the lead and wins. Or we are able to hold on by the skin of our teeth and eek out a victory. Either way - you get the same soundbites at the end of the game - like "We played hard, the guys never gave up"

 

[gospidersgo]

A few things I hope to see Saturday:

-Nick Sherod build off of his Wake performance. Truthfully he was pretty invisible in that game minus the little hot streak. It would be great to see him in double figures again.

-Us finally dominate a team. This is a team we SHOULD overwhelm. I'd love to see a performance where we get a big lead and step on their throats and pull away late instead of letting them back into it (remember these aren't things I expect or think will happen, just hoping...)

-75% free throws (again just a wish list)

-Mooney be intentional about getting Grant 15-20 minutes, for better or for worse. He has been getting minutes each game (about 8 min avg), but with our lack of big man depth I really feel like we need to be steadily ramping up his minutes to have him ready.

 

[fan2011]

You say "...no subjective speculation involved. The effect of individual players and playing time distribution are not considered."

Certainly not directly...but doesn't our peformance the last 8 games have an effect on his probabilty for future games? And doesn't who plays and how much they play have an effect on both our past and future performance?

He may not speculate on any changes, but isn't that a specuation that future performance will be similar to past performance? Or are you considering that an objective instead of subjective speculation?

Past performance is the only thing used in the rankings (not sure what else rankings could be based on), specifically the offensive and defensive efficiency as a team is considered. The team's performance is due to the collective performance of individual players, but individual performance isn't directly considered and there is certainly no speculation about future playing time distribution as suggested by a poster here.

 

[97spiderfan]

A few things I hope to see Saturday:

-Nick Sherod build off of his Wake performance. Truthfully he was pretty invisible in that game minus the little hot streak. It would be great to see him in double figures again.

-Us finally dominate a team. This is a team we SHOULD overwhelm. I'd love to see a performance where we get a big lead and step on their throats and pull away late instead of letting them back into it (remember these aren't things I expect or think will happen, just hoping...)

-75% free throws (again just a wish list)

-Mooney be intentional about getting Grant 15-20 minutes, for better or for worse. He has been getting minutes each game (about 8 min avg), but with our lack of big man depth I really feel like we need to be steadily ramping up his minutes to have him ready.

I hope for all of those things as well but am also realistic about their liklihood of actually occurring. As noted early, Mooney publically commented on the need to get Grant more time, which pretty much assures that Grant will be getting less time this game.

 

[SpiderK]

A few things I hope to see Saturday:

-Nick Sherod build off of his Wake performance. Truthfully he was pretty invisible in that game minus the little hot streak. It would be great to see him in double figures again.

-Us finally dominate a team. This is a team we SHOULD overwhelm. I'd love to see a performance where we get a big lead and step on their throats and pull away late instead of letting them back into it (remember these aren't things I expect or think will happen, just hoping...)

-75% free throws (again just a wish list)

-Mooney be intentional about getting Grant 15-20 minutes, for better or for worse. He has been getting minutes each game (about 8 min avg), but with our lack of big man depth I really feel like we need to be steadily ramping up his minutes to have him ready.

Agree with a lot of this. FT% especially. I thought Sherod played well for 21 minutes. 13 points on 5-9 shooting and 4 rebounds. Like to see Buck stick with the mid range jumpers and drives to basket to gain shooting confidence. No doubt Buck must make his 3's in practice or they wouldn't be setting him up for it so often. I can see Grant gaining confidence every game. He will be a nice passer too. JJ and Buck did not score against Wake, that cannot happen. We have been through enough of that crap the last 4 years. Good luck to the boys on Saturday.

 

[fan2011]

Agree with a lot of this. FT% especially. I thought Sherod played well for 21 minutes. 13 points on 5-9 shooting and 4 rebounds. Like to see Buck stick with the mid range jumpers and drives to basket to gain shooting confidence. No doubt Buck must make his 3's in practice or they wouldn't be setting him up for it so often. I can see Grant gaining confidence every game. He will be a nice passer too. JJ and Buck did not score against Wake, that cannot happen. We have been through enough of that crap the last 4 years. Good luck to the boys on Saturday.

So far this year the average mid range jumper FG% is 36.6%, the average 3FG% is 34.4%, the average at-rim FG% is 60%. When we look at the expected points earned for each shot we get:

at rim: 1.2
3 pointer: 1.0
mid range: 0.7

Most players should be focusing on mid-range shots, especially if it is to build confidence in their shot. They go in barely more than 3pt attempts.