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Offseason Player Analysis - Jason Roche

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May 31, 2002
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Pros/Strengths -

Obviously he has the ability to light it up from 3.
Quick Release, repeatable form.
I also like what I have seen in the midrange - is able to use the quick release to get shots off, From 15 feet in does not seem to need to have his feet set to maintain accuracy.
High Effort Defender - really good awareness and effort on the ball and away from the ball

Areas of Improvement

Using the dribble to create shots for himself. He scores mostly off of catch and shoot now. As noted above I have seen ability to make difficult shots look easy from 10 feet, but does not use it very often.
Scoring at rim. Again, I have seen ability to make layups, 5 footers, but not really beat defenders off the dribble
Defense - while I am in the group that thinks he is a solid defender overall, I have seen teams take effort to isolate him when guarding larger, more physical/athletic players - and have some trouble keeping them from getting to the basket.
I have a critique of his shot. I like the fact that he gets it off so quick, and repeatable. I think it would be better with more arc. When he is off - it seems that it is line drive off the front of the rim. Reminds me a bit of Kendall Anthony. He was a line drive shooter too. You don't want to mess with results, but I wonder if he added arc it would be even better, and would help a little with getting the shot off in a tighter space?
Shooting % dropped off in A10 play, which I know has been debated on here. While we can discuss scheme/plays/coaching, this is an are for improvement for next season. By diversifying his game and putting the ball down and making a shot in the midrange, I think can help him improve his ability to keep the defender off him a little. I think the defenses go the extreme to close out on him. If he can make them pay by putting the ball down and making a play, that will help his three point percentage and effectiveness in conference play.

Next Season

Build on last season. Similar to Randolph, he is a bit piegon holed into a shooter role. I think he can gain more minutes by improving the areas above - make plays off the dribble, whether for himself in the midrange or moving the defense and finding the open teammate. Potential to be a starter minute guy. I think a lot could depend on whether we bring in a do everything guard in the portal. Could see him playing beside King or Dji very easily. My hope is that we find a way in A10 to get him better looks, he is a bit more comfortable, and more diverse in his game this season. I think he has star potential, but just a little bit limited by athleticism.
 
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Roche is a shooter and I think he has the potential to be a high percentage shooter. The issue is I don't think we run any plays for him to get a shot, and therefore - he needs help by others through drive and kicks or post-up and kick outs to get his shot going. If he can shoot 37% or better next year from deep and average 2.5 threes pointers a night - thats a good sign. This year he averaged 1.5 threes a game and shot at 38% but dipped in A10 play. Need him to average double digits next year - right around 10-12 a night.
 
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Another solid write up by 23. I agree with almost all of it, with the only disagreement being his arc. I don't think he should change a thing. With his rhythm and quick release, his arc seems find to me.

I would like to see him start, and play a lot of minutes, even if we add another key guard who will start. For example, no reason why King, Roche, and Langford could not all start together.

Teams will crowd him and not allow open 3s, so no question doing more dribble and shoot from mid range will open things up for him and others. I could also see adding a side step dribble followed by a 3 when a guy comes rushing at him. I am looking forward to seeing him alongside King. Should be a big difference offensively from the Nelson/Goose pairing.
 
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spider23 said:
Pros/Strengths -

Obviously he has the ability to light it up from 3.
Quick Release, repeatable form.
I also like what I have seen in the midrange - is able to use the quick release to get shots off, From 15 feet in does not seem to need to have his feet set to maintain accuracy.
High Effort Defender - really good awareness and effort on the ball and away from the ball

Areas of Improvement

Using the dribble to create shots for himself. He scores mostly off of catch and shoot now. As noted above I have seen ability to make difficult shots look easy from 10 feet, but does not use it very often.
Scoring at rim. Again, I have seen ability to make layups, 5 footers, but not really beat defenders off the dribble
Defense - while I am in the group that thinks he is a solid defender overall, I have seen teams take effort to isolate him when guarding larger, more physical/athletic players - and have some trouble keeping them from getting to the basket.
I have a critique of his shot. I like the fact that he gets it off so quick, and repeatable. I think it would be better with more arc. When he is off - it seems that it is line drive off the front of the rim. Reminds me a bit of Kendall Anthony. He was a line drive shooter too. You don't want to mess with results, but I wonder if he added arc it would be even better, and would help a little with getting the shot off in a tighter space?
Shooting % dropped off in A10 play, which I know has been debated on here. While we can discuss scheme/plays/coaching, this is an are for improvement for next season. By diversifying his game and putting the ball down and making a shot in the midrange, I think can help him improve his ability to keep the defender off him a little. I think the defenses go the extreme to close out on him. If he can make them pay by putting the ball down and making a play, that will help his three point percentage and effectiveness in conference play.

Next Season

Build on last season. Similar to Randolph, he is a bit piegon holed into a shooter role. I think he can gain more minutes by improving the areas above - make plays off the dribble, whether for himself in the midrange or moving the defense and finding the open teammate. Potential to be a starter minute guy. I think a lot could depend on whether we bring in a do everything guard in the portal. Could see him playing beside King or Dji very easily. My hope is that we find a way in A10 to get him better looks, he is a bit more comfortable, and more diverse in his game this season. I think he has star potential, but just a little bit limited by athleticism.
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I just can’t agree with the idea that he’s a solid defender. I do believe he tries, but I don’t think he has the athleticism to stay out there for extended minutes without getting picked on. For the Mooney backers who agree with 23’s post, please explain why Mooney didn’t play him more minutes. If he’s a great shooter and good defender as you argue, is that a major failure by Mooney to not have played him more? Certainly he would have deserved the minutes Goose got who was a below average shooter and above average defender at best. Did Mooney cost us games due to his stubborn refusal to play such a talented all around player?
 
spider23 said:
I called him solid. He plays with effort, doesn't get beat by being out of position, good position when off the ball. I did see him get picked on in isolation a bit.
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But he gets beat due to his lack of athleticism. Yes, he may be technically sound, but if he can’t keep up athletically then you can’t call him solid. I think Mooney protected him greatly by playing him limited minutes. Either that or Mooney and I are wrong.
 
I didn't see any huge glaring deficiencies on D for him, worked hard, got in position well, was way more fundamentally sound than some others on the team and not many flying dutchmen.

I think his biggest issue (especially if Burton doesn't come back - b/c Burton handled the ball a lot for us) is his lack of ball handling - we pretty much can't play him without two other guards or a really good other ballhandler which I'm not sure we'll have on the roster.
 
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Agree 2k, that is why I have said he and Randolph were very similar. Neither of those guys have really been able to make plays off the dribble. With Roche, I agree with you and sman - I came in thinking he would be a liability keeping guys in front of him, but was pleasantly surprised. But I do feel like he got isolated/bullied on the block a little - that is where I have seen him get beat.
 
Roche is the designated shooter on the team, I am not worried about his defense. Every team has a weak defender, he will be ours and we should be able to hide him or use other methods to limit these deficiencies. With that being said - he still needs to make shots and score to make up for that defense liability. If we can get him knocking down 2-3 threes a game and getting us 10-12 points a night, then I have no problem with him out there 28-30 minutes. But if he is only giving us 6-8 points, then it might be harder to justify long minutes for him.
 
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ur2K said:
I didn't see any huge glaring deficiencies on D for him, worked hard, got in position well, was way more fundamentally sound than some others on the team and not many flying dutchmen.

I think his biggest issue (especially if Burton doesn't come back - b/c Burton handled the ball a lot for us) is his lack of ball handling - we pretty much can't play him without two other guards or a really good other ballhandler which I'm not sure we'll have on the roster.
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Which is why I would really like to see a lineup of King, Roche, and Langford.
 
VT4700 said:
Which is why I would really like to see a lineup of King, Roche, and Langford.
Click to expand...
I will join the group who thinks he is a liability defensively - - despite great effort which I agree he displays. I don't think he can stay in front of guys all that well (and coming off the bench he saw more of other bench players which at times made his deficiencies less exploitable) and he definitely is not physical enough to avoid being posted etc.

Also question the notion that he would be a better offensive player if we ran more stuff specifically for him. First, that would be a large change to our offense for a guy I just don't think warrants changing our offense to accommodate. Haven't seen a lot to say he is a Steph kinda guy who is going to run around and come off multiple screens and catch going one way and then square and shoot etc. (and that's what it means to run some plays for a shooter - - you can't be successful with a simple one screen and he catches already squared up etc. because that will be shut down very easily). Its very hard to run stuff for a shooter as opposed to a scorer and I see Roche as a shooter.

And as someone said, if he is such a good shooter and capable of being more offensively and is a solid defender - - why doesn't Moon play him more?

Love 23's analysis in general, but I think he's giving a bit too much credit here. Especially defensively.
 
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PASpider said:
So the only reason Mooney didn’t play him was due to dribbling?
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He did play him. He averaged 18 minutes a game, 7th on the team. I wanted him to play more, but I don't expect to just agree 100% of the time with everything Mooney does. I am thinking if he were as bad defensively as some of you say, he would rarely see the floor.

And, not sure if you were trying to be funny or not, but "dribbling" could be one of the reasons why he didn't get more minutes. Guards who get big minutes will likely be able to handle the ball and help bring it up. That is not his game. So, if not a guard, he was stuck behind Tyler a lot. Also, in the transfer thread, PhillySpider asked why didn't Mooney play him more if he were that good, but then he maybe answered his own question by saying Roche would do better playing with a drive and dish guy. Nelson never became that last year, so maybe Roche not getting more minutes was as simple as not fitting with who we had out there. This year could be much different for Roche with better PG play.
 
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spiderman said:
Coach preferred Goose. it's not like Roche didn't play at all. he played 18 mpg.
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And Goose stinks. So again, is he worse than Goose or did Mooney play the wrong guys? If he isn’t better than Goose, why are we optimistic about him next season when we were horrible with Goose and with Roche getting 18 minutes this past season?
 
PASpider said:
And Goose stinks. So again, is he worse than Goose or did Mooney play the wrong guys? If he isn’t better than Goose, why are we optimistic about him next season when we were horrible with Goose and with Roche getting 18 minutes this past season?
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There was a reason…and it wasn’t on coach.
 
My preseason prediction for Roche last year was that he wouldn't take enough shots when he was on the court. Things played out pretty much exactly as expected. For him to provide the most value he needs to figure out how to get more attempts up, he needs to shoot 50% more often when he is on the court.

Next Year Roster

LOL. The "should have called timeouts" stuff comes out again. Here are the first half timeouts: 15:48 TV timeout 10-4 Providence. 13:19 Richmond timeout 18-8 Providence. 8-4 Providence run between timeouts. 10:42 TV timeout 24-11 Providence. 6-3 Providence run between timeouts. 7:40 TV...
richmond.forums.rivals.com richmond.forums.rivals.com
 
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Lets not forget though - he did fade out in A10 play. 2nd year in row, from Citadel - where he played more minutes, he faded there as well.

In A10 play, he shot 32% from 3 - which is not terrible by any means - but not good for a guy who really can't do much else in terms of scoring than shoot 3's - we need him near 40% if that is going to be his skill he brings to the table. We all agree he is not a great defender, he is not going to get us rebounds, and he is not an assist guy because quite frankly - we would all prefer he shoot rather than pass. Just for reference - he took 309 shots at the Citadel his frosh season - 277 of them were 3 pointers. That is 90% of his shots came from beyond the arc. He is shooter!!!! And trust me - I think every team needs a shooter like him. But lets not think he is more than that. He is a guy who should be taking a minimum of 6 three pointers a game. That is a minimum. Should they draw plays for him, run screens for him - that depends. If we had a PG like Gilyard who could drive and kick, or big man who was a threat to score down low all the time and force doubles to kick out - then NO. But since we don't have that right now - we might need sets for him to get these shots.
 
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But, should you compare Roche to Brothers and Francis, 2 of our best off guards ever? I wouldn't say a guy has to be as good as they were to get a lot of minutes.

Brothers and Francis had both a solid 2 point game and 3 point game. Roche actually had more 3 attempts per 40 minutes than both Brothers and Francis, and had more overall shots per 40 minutes than Brothers did in Brothers' 2nd year. 23 and I have both pointed out Roche did add a little mid range to his game last year, and adding just a little more would certainly make him that much more of a weapon.

3s per 40 minutes by season:

Roche: 9.9, 9.4
Blake: 7.1, 9.7, 8.9, 8.1
Brothers: 2.7, 6.1, 7.5, 7.9

2s per 40 minutes by season:

Roche: 1.1, 1.8
Blake: 3.4, 6.5, 9.0, 8.4
Brothers: 9.2, 4.8, 6.8, 6.1

So, Roche shot 11.2 times per 40 minutes last year. Increasing that by 50% as you asked would put him at 16.8 a game, slightly less than Blake, but more than Brothers. I don't think we need Roche to shoot as much as Blake because I don't think we need 17.7 and 16.1 points a game from him. He averaged 13.2 a game at The Citadel on only 10 shots a game. I would certainly take that here. Overall, I would say Roche just needs more minutes, not more shots per minute.
 
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VT4700 said:
But, should you compare Roche to Brothers and Francis, 2 of our best off guards ever? I wouldn't say a guy has to be as good as they were to get a lot of minutes.

Brothers and Francis had both a solid 2 point game and 3 point game. Roche actually had more 3 attempts per 40 minutes than both Brothers and Francis, and had more overall shots per 40 minutes than Brothers did in Brothers' 2nd year. 23 and I have both pointed out Roche did add a little mid range to his game last year, and adding just a little more would certainly make him that much more of a weapon.

3s per 40 minutes by season:

Roche: 9.9, 9.4
Blake: 7.1, 9.7, 8.9, 8.1
Brothers: 2.7, 6.1, 7.5, 7.9

2s per 40 minutes by season:

Roche: 1.1, 1.8
Blake: 3.4, 6.5, 9.0, 8.4
Brothers: 9.2, 4.8, 6.8, 6.1

So, Roche shot 11.2 times per 40 minutes last year. Increasing that by 50% as you asked would put him at 16.8 a game, slightly less than Blake, but more than Brothers. I don't think we need Roche to shoot as much as Blake because I don't think we need 17.7 and 16.1 points a game from him. He averaged 13.2 a game at The Citadel on only 10 shots a game. I would certainly take that here. Overall, I would say Roche just needs more minutes, not more shots per minute.
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In that preseason thread the expectations for Roche were sky high. People were saying he needs to play every minute of every game. Pretty much everyone agreed he should be a starter. Expectations seemed to generally be that he would be at the level of Brothers or Francis which is why I brought the comparison up and saw I didn't think he would be there.

Brothers as a senior took 28% of our shots when he was on the court, Roche last year took 21%. So I guess that is a 33% increase not a 50% increase, but I don't think the exact % increase is the point. the point is he needs to take a lot more shot attempts to be the type of player people were expecting.

Why do I think Riche needs to take more shots? He is on the court for his scoring, that is it. If he isn't shooting and scoring why is he on the court? if Roche is on the court for 36 minutes like at Citadel he needs to be scoring a lot more than 13 points.
 
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Roche should get more minutes because 1) He is our best shooter, and we will be very limited on offense and need a shooter like him on the floor to help score. 2) There is no one really behind him challenging for minutes. Randolph gone. Nelson gone. Goose Gone. Burton probably gone. Crabtree Gone. He is going to play cause we need his shooting and no one else is out there take his minutes. Maybe DJI? But I think he is more PG or maybe could play on the wing if we thing King is our PG. I expect Roche to get about 28 minutes, maybe more.
 
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I suspect that Roche didn't play more because he wasn't that effective. With that said I want to be clear that I want Roche to shoot when he is open. As discussed by others, he does need to get better at creating his own shot, being effective with the ball, ballhandling, and defense.

Roche can be highly successful when he has a good look. However, what I saw last season was a lot of quick, hurried, fling it toward the goal type shots. While he made a few of these, he missed a lot of them also. It appeared to me that he (and likely the coaching staff) knew that they needed him to be a shooter. But, preventing him from getting good looks was a focus for many opponents. As a result, the quality of Roche's shot was often not optimal.

More minutes will likely result in more shots, but, I don't want him to just shoot more. I want Roche to get and take more quality shots. To me this is the challenge for the player and the coaches. The better quality shot he gets, the higher his percentage of makes will be.

The most obvious example of this was his game winner. Roche was open, squared up to basket, got a good pass, and he confidently drilled it for the win.
 
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yeah, I can't remember a time where I thought Roche passed up on a shot he should have taken.

if he takes more shots this year, it's be because King or others find him when he's open more. we don't run plays for perimeter shots. we run an offense. as far as I can tell the only set plays I see us run are to get the ball inside.
 
I agree SpiderMan - and I didn't see much film of Roche at Citadel, but I gotta believe they either tried to get out in transition and get him shots before defense can setup or run him off screens to get him a look - neither of which is something at UR we do very well
 
SpiderTrap said:
I agree SpiderMan - and I didn't see much film of Roche at Citadel, but I gotta believe they either tried to get out in transition and get him shots before defense can setup or run him off screens to get him a look - neither of which is something at UR we do very well
Click to expand...
He ran off a lot of screens at The Citadel. As noted, not really what we do here. But he clearly can be effective under that model.
 
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MrTbone said:
He ran off a lot of screens at The Citadel. As noted, not really what we do here. But he clearly can be effective under that model.
Click to expand...
yes, but his numbers per 40 minutes are remarkably similar at the Citadel as compare to here. running off screens got him 9.9 3 point attempts per 40 vs 9.4 here. he took more 2 pointers here.
 
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Is Roche hurt/recovering? Pretty sure spiderdad or others alluded to that on here but have not seen any confirmation. Roche has also been absent from any offseason workout pics.
 
He missed one game in late January with a bad knee, but that was all. I guess it could be a nagging thing he played through at the end of the season, but I'm just speculating.

 
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