"Well, actually...": Testing the "rally-killing time out" theory

[kneepadmckinney]

I hate the practice of calling the time-out right after we score late in close games (the "Mooney-Out"). Looks like I am not alone. But I did want to objectively test the theory on whether it is actually harmful or helpful.

Assumptions/Methodology:

• Applies only to timeouts: (1) taken after a made basket by Richmond; (2) under 6 minutes to go in the game but before the "under 4" timeout; and (3) in games that are "close" (i.e., within 8 points with 6 mins to go.
• I looked at this year only for the test sample, although this practice obviously goes back a ways just anecdotally

We have had 9 opportunities this season for a Mooney-Out: Charleston, Wichita, Syracuse, W&M, Mason, GW, Duquesne, Davidson, UMass.

The Mooney-Out was called on only 3 of those occasions: Charleston, W&M, and UMass. Here are the details:

Opponent	Date	Time of TO	Score (UR – Opp)	Opponent score next possession? (Y/N)	Final Score	Spread since TO (to end of regulation)
Charleston	11/14	4:58	70-72	Y	90-92 (OT)	11-9
W&M	12/3	5:36	52-48	Y	57-58	5-10
UMass	1/25	4:29	71-68	Y	76-85	5-17

Here are the scenarios for the other games: Wichita (losing by 2 at 6 mins to go -- lost), Syracuse (winning by 2 with 6 mins to go -- lost), Mason (losing by 5 with 6 mins to go -- lost), GW (winning by 7 with 6 mins to go -- won), Duquesne (winning by 5 with 6 mins to go -- won), Davidson (winning by 7 with 6 mins to go -- won).

My takeaways:

1. It would be inaccurate to suggest that Mooney ALWAYS calls the Mooney-Out. In fact, it's only 33% of the time this year.
2. It is not effective in preventing the other team from scoring on the next possession -- at all.
3. It hasn't resulted in good end-game performance in 2 of the 3 games in which the Mooney-Out was called.

Obviously, this can be picked apart as unscientific, or non-correlative, etc., but for me at least it confirmed what my eyes were subjectively telling me: the Mooney-Out is stupid and I still hate it.

 

[RichmondNative]

….the Mooney-Out is stupid and I still hate it.

Thanks for the effort. I legit laughed out loud at the conclusion. 5 stars!

 

[SpiderRick]

Thanks for all your thoughts, kneepad. Now can you do one on how deep Mooney goes in the opponents runs WITHOUT taking a time out? This may have happened once or twice in the past 18 years (wink)

I still think Mooney has a bonus clause in his contract for every unused timeout...

 

[GKiller]

"They've done studies, you know. Sixty percent of the time, it works every time."

- Brian Fantana

 

[SpiderK]

“but for me at least it confirmed what my eyes were subjectively telling me: the Mooney-Out is stupid and I still hate it.”

Your summation is perfect.

 

[VT4700]

Like with most time outs, calling one there is fine, and not calling one there is fine. I think it is no different than a media timeout where you get a break and then go back out and play. Nothing magic to it. Doesn't automatically start runs, doesn't automatically stop runs.

Let's look a little farther with your data:

Charleston: we were losing 72-70 at the timeout. 3+ minutes later, we were ahead 79-76. So, a 9-4 run for us after the timeout. Is it really accurate to say the timeout hurt us?

W&M: we were winning 52-48 at the time out. A minute later, we were winning 55-49. Is it really accurate to say the timeout hurt us?

UMASS: we were winning 71-68 at the timeout. About 90 seconds later, we were winning 76-73. Is it really accurate to say the timeout hurt us?

I don't know why some of you are so worried about timeouts. Well, maybe I do know. Just another something to get on our coach for. They are no different than media timeouts, which happen 4 times each half, and like team timeouts, do not just automatically affect what happens post timeout. When we were down to UMASS 8-0, we didn't call a timeout and went on a 28-15 run after that. So, the board won't bring this up, but if 8-0 becomes 16-4, probably even with a media timeout mixed in, we know what we would hear on here.

 

[SpiderK]

Like with most time outs, calling one there is fine, and not calling one there is fine. I think it is no different than a media timeout where you get a break and then go back out and play. Nothing magic to it. Doesn't automatically start runs, doesn't automatically stop runs.

Let's look a little farther with your data:

Charleston: we were losing 72-70 at the timeout. 3+ minutes later, we were ahead 79-76. So, a 9-4 run for us after the timeout. Is it really accurate to say the timeout hurt us?

W&M: we were winning 52-48 at the time out. A minute later, we were winning 55-49. Is it really accurate to say the timeout hurt us?

UMASS: we were winning 71-68 at the timeout. About 90 seconds later, we were winning 76-73. Is it really accurate to say the timeout hurt us?

I don't know why some of you are so worried about timeouts. Well, maybe I do know. Just another something to get on our coach for. They are no different than media timeouts, which happen 4 times each half, and like team timeouts, do not just automatically affect what happens post timeout. When we were down to UMASS 8-0, we didn't call a timeout and went on a 28-15 run after that. So, the board won't bring this up, but if 8-0 becomes 16-4, probably even with a media timeout mixed in, we know what we would hear on here.

I think our concern about Mooney’s timeouts are that we have all watched basketball for decades. We have seen thousands of games coached by real coaches and have a feel for when a timeout should be called. We feel it in our bones instantly when a real coach would stop the game. Mooney has very few years of reference for this. Other than his own time as a coach, he only has his 4 playing years and a few weddings to go by. Like Herb Brooks said about the USSR hockey coach being behind in a game “He doesn’t know what to do”. All A-10 coaches know this about Mooney.

 

[GKiller]

Kneepad is talking about the kill our own momentum timeout. From watching Moon 18 years I have no doubt it’s a thing. And he does it at a much higher frequency more than other coaches. Think we should look at how we were doing during those rallies prior to the TO & then after. Not just how we did after. I don’t think anyone is mad about a TO after a single made bucket, sometimes u want to sub D. It’s the TO’s after several made buckets where we’ve clearly been on a run that r frustrating. I would say the overwhelming majority of coaches prefer not to stop a run with their own TO.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

10-2 run for LaSalle so far after the Mooney-Out. Quintessential.

 

[spider23]

Unbelievable time out call, the announcers couldn't believe it.

 

[DTSpider]

This is why Mooney is probably the most popular coach in the A10. Every other fan base loves him. And he’s helped so many other coaches along the way to improve their record. Just a great guy.

 

[Eight Legger]

He's just a ****ing idiot.

 

[Section9.RowD]

Unbelievable time out call, the announcers couldn't believe it.

I have stomach flu because of it

 

[spider23]

Yep, we had some momentum, it was funny to hear the announcers baffled by the call, they thought Dunphy called it. Just classic.

 

[SpiderK]

I have stomach flu because of it

Covid 13-19

 

[MrTbone]

Yep, we had some momentum, it was funny to hear the announcers baffled by the call, they thought Dunphy called it. Just classic.

Honest question, was he trying to get someone injured out?

 

[urfan1]

Honest question, was he trying to get someone injured out?

Black & Beck were talking about how our guys needed a break.

 

[spider23]

Well it looked like la salle guys needed a break worse. Moon blinked first again.

 

[GKiller]

Black & Beck were talking about how our guys needed a break.

I think it was because Tony Dobbins broke his shoe.

 

[97spiderfan]

The vast majority of coaches take time outs to stem momentum when the other team has it. Mooney does the exact opposite so in essence, Mooney is saving the other coach his time outs by calling them as he does.

And you have to ask why Mooney is one of the only coach who does this with the frequency that he does. Either he is a genius that is ahead of the curve from 98% plus other coaches or he is outlier that clings to something that he thinks works.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

And you have to ask why Mooney is one of the only coach who does this with the frequency that he does.

Do we know this is true? Believe me, as the author of this thread you know where I stand. I just have no idea and have not researched whether he is an outlier or not.

I think all we have to go on is subjective observation, and we probably all come out the same place--that it isn't a common tactic with others. But, I do want to try and keep the underlying data set and premise objective since that was the point of the thread.

 

[97spiderfan]

Do we know this is true? Believe me, as the author of this thread you know where I stand. I just have no idea and have not researched whether he is an outlier or not.

I think all we have to go on is subjective observation, and we probably all come out the same place--that it isn't a common tactic with others. But, I do want to try and keep the underlying data set and premise objective since that was the point of the thread.

No. I watch a lot of college basketball and I can't think of another coach who uses this as a consistent tactic other than Mooney. Now, granted it is subjective, because I'm not tuned into as to when coaches are calling time outs.

 

[gospidersgo]

Even if every other coach does it every game (I realize they don't), I think it's clear at this point that it's not working FOR US. That's all I care about.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

Even if every other coach does it every game (I realize they don't), I think it's clear at this point that it's not working FOR US. That's all I care about.

Exactly--and that was my point in going back to actually stress test it using the game data.