Rhode Island

[spider23]

This is shaping up as an early season litmus test. Can we defend home court. Can we beat a big athletic team, that is not very well organized or coached?

Keys:
Guard Sheppard at the three point line. He is shooting 40% from range, and the games I have seen has played really well overall. As much hype as Dowtin got, this guy is an improvement.
Fatts - let this sucker shoot, egg him to shoot. Shooting 19 % from 3, and 32% overall. This should be taking candy from a baby easy for our DPOY candidate. Every game I have seen him play this year he just looks awful, yet he is always mentioned as a POY candidate in the A10. I really can't figure out this philly softie. On the flip side, he is due for one good game. Don't foul him, he is a very good FT shooter, and hit 3 huge FT's vs St Joes.
INterior: Last year my main concern going into the game was URI's big/athletic interior. They lost one, but picked up more pieces. Notably, the Mitchell twins from MD. Games I have watched, these two will goon you up, and use ~ 19 fouls between the two (depending on how quickly the refs can actually blow their whistles ). Same concern this year. Last year's game Golden and particularly Cayo dominated. Need a similar effort. Golden needs to play tough, and not get goaded into Goon Fest with Mitchell's, etc.

Gilyard and Francis shut down URI's touted back court - I think Fatts missed something like his first 10 shots. We need Rhody to go with the Fatts vs the world offense. When they do that, they are very average. When they move the ball and Sheppard gets looks, they get pretty decent.

Prediction: Spiders win by 7.

 

[SFspidur]

Makhi Mitchell has been out with season-ending knee injury since mid-December.

Agree about Fatts. Hopefully yesterday was his good game for a while...didn’t shoot it well, but did everything else. Got his points at the line, rebounded, distributed, got some steals, etc.

 

[spider23]

Well, that is several less fouls for Rhody to lay on Grant. He was the superior foul shooter of the two. Makhel shooting 41% from FT line. He missed a ton down the stretch in the games I have seen. Might be worth it to employ Hack a Shack vs this guy in close game.

 

[spider fan]

Yes - where is Gary Rich when you really need him? Might still hold record for fastest time fouling out of a game in the Robins Center. Big man who could take up space and send the message that you are not taking that to the hoop without contact.

 

[Spider B]

They will use the Bonnie formula. Thrown up shots and go grab the rebound. URI is not a very good team, but this strategy works well against CM.

 

[SpiderTrap]

Fatts is a good player and very capable. So not sure I would dare him to shoot. Last thing you want to give a good player who is struggling is confidence.
But I do agree they will likely take the Bonnies strategy. Crash the boards - try to drive the hoop and if lucky, they will draw some fouls. They get Burton or Grant into foul trouble - it will be trouble for us.

 

[SFspidur]

Fatts is a good player and very capable. So not sure I would dare him to shoot. Last thing you want to give a good player who is struggling is confidence.

The dude is shooting sub 36% for his entire college career. Sure, he could have a good shooting game, but he's got 100 games' worth of data suggesting it's unlikely. If he gets his points, it's almost always through volume or at the line.

 

[97spiderfan]

The dude is shooting sub 36% for his entire college career. Sure, he could have a good shooting game, but he's got 100 games' worth of data suggesting it's unlikely. If he gets his points, it's almost always through volume or at the line.

In other words a more inefficient version of Blake Francis.

 

[SpiderTrap]

He is a volume shooter - no doubt about that. But that is exactly my point. I would not dare him to shoot because he will continue to shoot and if he gets confidence rolling - he is the type of player that can score 25-30 and carry his team to victory if you let him.
I don't think you need to focus on him and extensively shut him down. Just put a good defender on him and play him straight up and when he shoots, cause he will - rebound. That is how the other guys get involved.

 

[SFspidur]

He doesn't lack confidence whether he's making shots or not, so I'd rather have the 35% guy jacking up shots. I'd happily dare him to shoot and focus on taking away the other things he does.

 

[SpiderGuy]

They will use the Bonnie formula. Thrown up shots and go grab the rebound. URI is not a very good team, but this strategy works well against CM.

Until we make adjustments, that strategy works well. It's a blueprint, and I suspect all kinds of mention of this on scouting reports. We have to recognize this and make CHANGES needed.

 

[64Spider]

What is CHANGES?

 

[spider fan]

A 7 letter word that is usually meaningless to our program, otherwise known as ADJUSTMENTS. If something is not working the option of trying something DIFFERENT should be utilized....................you think?

 

[SpiderTrap]

The only things Fatts does is shoot and score. He is not really all that good at anything else. I just don't like the idea of letting a guy who is capable of scoring 30+ to shoot at will. Just play him straight up - he is going to get his shots and points, but make it tough. Make him shoot 15 times to score 15 points. Not shoot 20 times and let him get 30+ points. That only works if you say we will shut down the rest - which I don't have confidence in because of our lack of rebounding and depth.
URI is going to attach the basket and look for fouls and attack the glass to clean up misses. So we must stay out of foul trouble and limit (not win) their offensive rebounding. We do that - this should be an 8-10 point win for the Spiders.

 

[plydogg]

The only things Fatts does is shoot and score. He is not really all that good at anything else. I just don't like the idea of letting a guy who is capable of scoring 30+ to shoot at will. Just play him straight up - he is going to get his shots and points, but make it tough. Make him shoot 15 times to score 15 points. Not shoot 20 times and let him get 30+ points. That only works if you say we will shut down the rest - which I don't have confidence in because of our lack of rebounding and depth.
URI is going to attach the basket and look for fouls and attack the glass to clean up misses. So we must stay out of foul trouble and limit (not win) their offensive rebounding. We do that - this should be an 8-10 point win for the Spiders.

But the logic here is flawed man. Your words, “make him shoot 15 times to score 15 points”. Then you said not shoot 20 times to get 30+ points.

If he has 15 points on 15 shots how is he going to get 15+ points, guaranteed, on his next 5 shots? If he’s playing badly and shooting poorly why would we not encourage him to take more bad shots? He’s an inefficient scorer who usually needs 3 shots to make one.

 

[urmite]

But the logic here is flawed man. Your words, “make him shoot 15 times to score 15 points”. Then you said not shoot 20 times to get 30+ points.

If he has 15 points on 15 shots how is he going to get 15+ points, guaranteed, on his next 5 shots? If he’s playing badly and shooting poorly why would we not encourage him to take more bad shots? He’s an inefficient scorer who usually needs 3 shots to make one.

I think what he is saying is, if he needs 3 shots to make one and misses the first two, don't let him shoot the third one.

 

[urmite]

Personally I think Blake defends Fatts well. Loose enough so he thinks he can make them, but tight enough so he doesn't...

 

[SpiderTrap]

I am just saying he is not the type of player I would dare to shoot. Cayo is the type of player I would dare to shoot on UR. I would stand in the paint anytime he touches the ball and let him shoot for two reasons - 1) He can't shoot 2) Any shot he takes is 1 less for Gilyard, Francis, and Burton.
I might even dare Golden to shoot. Simply because I don't think he can make enough from the outside to beat me AS long as I keep the other guys in check.
With Fatts - daring and letting him shoot. That works if he shoots his normal low percentage. But letting him shoot means your giving up open looks and letting him shoot and I assume he will shoot better in that scenario. Next thing you know - he feels good after knocking down some shots and his confidence and the team confidence goes up. I just don't like daring a guy like that because IF he gets it going, and then you decide - okay, lets guard him now - it might be too late. I think he is good enough to keep his team in the game.
I would say let Francis or Gilyard play him straight up. No daring, no slacking off. Just play him normal. But the other guys - the focus needs to be limit rebounds as best as possible and when Fatts drives - if he does pass it out - don't rush out and get out of position, maybe give up those shots - because I think that is where we get into foul trouble with rotations and teams driving on us.

 

[plydogg]

I understand that, but personally I’d rather let the worst player on the floor take shots. And in my opinion the worst player on the floor is Fatts.

Also Nathan Cayo has developed quite the jumper this year. Hasn’t used it often but it has gone in nearly every time he’s attempted it.

 

[urmite]

I understand that, but personally I’d rather let the worst player on the floor take shots. And in my opinion the worst player on the floor is Fatts.

Also Nathan Cayo has developed quite the jumper this year. Hasn’t used it often but it has gone in nearly every time he’s attempted it.

The question is does Fatts make 36% from three when someone is 1 foot from him but 72% from three if someone is 4 feet from him?

 

[KE Spider]

Personally I think Blake defends Fatts well. Loose enough so he thinks he can make them, but tight enough so he doesn't...

Both like to shoot. Maybe reduce the game to a game of HORSE.

 

[plydogg]

The question is does Fatts make 36% from three when someone is 1 foot from him but 72% from three if someone is 4 feet from him?

He's shooting 19.6% from 3 for the entire season, so him shooting 36% from three with someone right on him would be almost double what he's currently shooting.

He is 9-46 from deep this season. They've played 10 games. Grant Golden is 7-13 from deep this season. Fatts has only made 2 more triples than Golden.

He's attempting 4.6 threes per game and not even averaging one make per game. Also in the past 5 games he is 1-19 from deep. So even in a stretch where he is shooting literally 5.3% he is still averaging 4 attempts per game.

I understand that we don't want to let good players beat us, but Fatts Russell is not a good player. If we let him, he will singlehandedly make sure we win this game.

This season Fatts has made 40 shots on 125 attempts. Nathan Cayo has made 47 shots on 69 attempts.

Even with as much as I get on Francis for taking bad shots, he's made 59 shots on 141 attempts. That's a full 9 percentage points better than Fatts this season.

Also just looked, and Rhode Island is 278th in the nation in 3 point percentage. If you remove Fatts from Rhode Island, they shoot tip to 174th. That seems pretty significant to me.

Sorry I really went down a rabbit hole here.

 

[spiderman]

Cayo is the type of player I would dare to shoot on UR. I would stand in the paint anytime he touches the ball and let him shoot for two reasons - 1) He can't shoot 2) Any shot he takes is 1 less for Gilyard, Francis, and Burton.

huh? Cayo's pretty automatic from the mid range. dude's shooting 68% from the floor and it's not all layups. you have to cover him out to 16'.

 

[spider23]

I love Cayo, but automatic in mid range??? He maybe made a few the entire last season. I have seen him hit a few this season, but automatic, some one give me the numbers on Cayo from 15 feet please.

 

[SFspidur]

All I know is that Cayo is perfect from three on the year.

 

[spider23]

So he hasn't shot one since first minutes vs Kentucky?

Would love to see Cayo get more aggressive with opportunities from 10 feet and in.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

I have every expectation that Fatts goes 6-10 from downtown now. Especially given our proclivity to have some guy on the other team go crazy in the second half on threes.

mind you, I don’t disagree with the strategy. I just also believe that putting it out in the world on this thread increased the likelihood of the strategy exploding in our face.

 

[KE Spider]

If RI is relying on our message board for tactical keys to victory, God help them.

 

[spider23]

Lol, agree KE, Fatts is going to get so mad at our board he is going to raise his pathetic shooting for this game. More likely the law of averages will catch up and he makes 3 against us.

 

[spiderman]

I love Cayo, but automatic in mid range??? He maybe made a few the entire last season. I have seen him hit a few this season, but automatic, some one give me the numbers on Cayo from 15 feet please.

I don't know those numbers or where to find them, but I hope someone can. my memory isn't a strength, but I believe he's shot extremely well.

 

[SFspidur]

I don't know those numbers or where to find them, but I hope someone can. my memory isn't a strength, but I believe he's shot extremely well.

Yeah, he's shooting 68% on the year, but they don't really keep shot charts in NCAA, so don't know numbers specifically for mid-range. He's definitely improved on them last year and this year just based on what I remember seeing.

 

[spider23]

Well, I can see he is only shooting 63% from 15 ft unguarded this season, But no idea in Live action, but definitely seems marginally better than last year. Hope he has a monster game against Rhody again.

 

[spiderman]

lol. yeah, I know his FTs are down. just seems his jumper has been consistent in his range, and he stays within that range.

 

[SFspidur]

Yeah, he always looks a little flat-footed on those unguarded 15-footers.

 

[I-M-UR]

Yeah, he always looks a little flat-footed on those unguarded 15-footers.

that and a quicker release

 

[SFspidur]

Goose is going to be a game-time decision again.

 

[SpiderTrap]

I hate saying "must win" but given we have home losses to Hofstra and now Bonnies, does this game become a must win simply because I find it hard to have 3 home losses so early in the year and make an NCAA bid (of course we could go undefeated the rest of the season). But do those 2 home losses make this a must win for the Spiders to keep hopes alive?

 

[MrTbone]

In a normal season no, I don’t think it’s a do or die this early in the year. But this isn’t a normal season and I think the guys have to treat each game as a precious commodity. It’s not inconceivable that games get cancelled and never rescheduled, so you better be winning now and not hoping to make it up later.

 

[97spiderfan]

Fatts is off to a bad start but he is still the stick that stirs the coffee for Rhody. I would think we would want to do everything we can to make sure Fatts has another off night. This would mean denying him dribble drive and forcing him to take contested 3's. Fatts is going to take his shots, that is what he does. Let's make him take bad ones.

It will be interesting to see who guards him, is it Gilly or Blake. Gilly really tied him up last year in our win, so I would vote for Gilly.

 

[spider23]

97, my memory must be bad, I was thinking that Blake covered him mostly last year - but I am probably wrong. I just recall Dowtin (6'3 guard) coming out first possession and getting an easy 8 foot post up against one of our guards, then URI did not go to that again, instead taking dumb shots.