Don't sleep on Roche
- Thread starter MountainSpider
- Start date
Roche is a better shooter which is important no doubt but I canāt say heās a better player. What else is he better at? Could be hope so but without seeing him besides watching game highlights thatās a leap imo. I expect a big role for Roche we do need that designated 3 pt specialist & if he shoots like at Citadel heāll get plenty of time. I donāt expect the same volume here this season. So I could see him at 20 mins or low 20s & more if lights out.
I donāt think itās goose vs. Roche at SG anyway. Sure to some extent they compete as do other players but those 2 not as much directly as made out on this board imo.
if goose is at 30 mins as example I can see him at 10/10/10 for positions 1-3 if u want to label those spots. Bc he has that versatility. Think him & Roche will play decent amount together.
I like Roche but don't think he's going to demand starter minutes early on a la TJC when he transferred in until later on in his first season. I could see him by the end of the season playing 20+ MPG though. Think he needs to bulk up that lower body to keep those legs strong in the more physical A10.
I'm hopeful with Roche because I fear the lineups I continue to see posted here will struggle to score. and I doubt they're so good defensively to overcome that.
Goose is ideal when surrounded by the offensive likes of Golden, Gilyard, Burton and Cayo.
Goose is ideal when surrounded by the offensive likes of Golden, Gilyard, Burton and Cayo.
I hope it will be a pleasant surprise. Like Bailey or Crabtree fully healthy and outplaying the guys ahead of them into the starting lineup.
I guess an unpleasant surprise for me would be only 1 incoming transfer starting.
if it means a returning guy is better, I'm all for it.
best players play.
Of course. But if our best lineup is what SpiderTrap posted, I'm going to be disappointed and so are you because it probably means the incoming guys are not what we hoped.
There were 29 guys last year in NCAA who made more than 94 three pointers for the season. Let me throw some names out at you -
Darius McGhee - Liberty
Kamdyn Curfman - VMI
Dru Kuxhausen - Northern Colorado
Adrian Delph - App State
George Papas - Monmouth
Chase Johnston - Stetson
Point being - just because you made a lot of 3's doesn't mean your the better overall player. Roche made 110 on 277 attempts. Goose made 16 on 52 attempts. At that rate - if Goose got 277 attempts, he would have made about 85 3's. So 25 behind Roche. A good number behind, but again - we have to look at whole package. And trust me - I like Roche. Our bench last season was terrible for most of the season. We would have games where they provided no scoring and had little to no effect on the game. So even if Roche comes off the bench - I think he plays a key role in that we need that guy who can come off the bench and scare teams that he could get hot and go off for like 15 points in a hurry. We have not had that and we may need that this year with all the scoring we lost.
Only 3 players in college basketball made as many 3s as Roche made and shot a better percentage than him. 3. And one of those was Gillespie from Villanova. But, I want and expect Goose to start and play a lot, and see no reason why Goose and Roche can't play together out there. If Roche is hitting 3s again this year, he will see plenty of time. And, if Goose is taking the opponent's best scorer out of the game like he did numerous times last year, he will see plenty of time also.
Roche hit the portal and got offers from Missouri, K State and Pitt. that's a huge get for us. he hit 40% of 3's on heavy volume. I don't know why it's hard to believe he's probably our best SG.
I agree best players need to play, but I see Mountain's point, especially with Quinn. We know what Grace brings, and I like his game a lot, always have, but if Quinn doesn't start, it would make me wonder about his game a little. If a 7 footer like Quinn has the talent I I think and hope he does, I would expect him to start.
Because we have a guy in Goose that numerous times took the other team's top scorer out of the game last year. That matters. Also, he has a good handle and helped bring the ball up at times. That matters also. I want my guards being able to handle the ball and help with bringing it up the court, especially if we get pressed, or the defense keeps the ball away from our PG, or if we just get full court defense played against us. I haven't seen Roche enough to know he would be fine bringing it up if he is the only option besides our PG. Maybe he would be fine with that, and that is great if he has that part of his game also. But, it doesn't have to be one or the other. No reason why both Goose and Roche can't play together.
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Roche would have to be egregiously awful on defense to surrender more points than he appears likely to score (or to have a worse plus/minus than whoever might play instead of him). I havenāt seen him play defense, but it would seem that heās going to be a net positive when heās in the game.
I am very excited about Roche, how could I not be as important as I think the 3 ball is, but how many PPG do you think he is likely to score? To me it's not about Roche not playing defense, it's that we have one of the best defenders we have had here in Goose. But, yes, Roche needs plenty of minutes, which is why I keep asking why wouldn't we want out best defender and best 3 point shooter out there together at times?
put PG and C aside for a minute. we have the follwing main options for the other 3 starting spots.
1) Goose, Burton, Grace
2) Goose, Burton, Bigelow
3) Roche, Goose, Burton
4) Roche, Burton, Bigelow
5) Roche, Burton, Grace
and that's not even contemplating Crabtree, nor Bailey possibly playing off the point.
a lot comes down to Bigelow to me. I don't love Grace at forward. I don't see what we gain there. he's not a plus defender and to date hasn't been a plus shooter or ball handler on the perimeter. I like him backing up Quinn.
as I want Roche's shooting out there, my preferences are options #3 and #4.
My question would be why do we have to call him a SG, meaning a "2" and a "2" only? Why be so worried about old school 1-5 positions that it limits your options?
I like 2 - I think Bigelow and Burton on the wings give us some good athleticism and we keep good defense, which we need with Goose out there.
I agree with putting PG and our big aside. Those are important positions that we always need out there. And, I like all 5 of those lineups you put out there, and see no reason why they all would not work at times. I thought you had been saying Roche over Goose, but not both together. Sorry if I misread the together part from you.
Would Goose have gotten similar offers if he had transferred? I'm asking, I don't know, but I doubt it.
There are so many unknowns on here. For instance, we question Roche who has already shown us what he can do on a college court, but Nelson, a guy who has never played in a D-1 game we are penciling in for starting from day 1 and playing probably 30 minutes.
I know Mooney has intimated that is the plan for Nelson, I hope it is, because it means he is the stud, we think he is, but he has yet to step foot on a college court.
I think if we had Roche last year, looking back on so many games where we struggled from 3, we would have had him in there for Nate a lot, and seen a Jacob, Goose, Roche, Tyler, and Grant lineup out there. Don't get me wrong, I loved Nate, but when we needed better shooting, this would have been a solid lineup. Which I why I think we could see a Nelson, Goose, Roche, Tyler, Quinn lineup a lot, maybe even starting? Having a versatile guy like Bigelow off the bench could be key as well.
if I'm starting Roche it's either for Goose at SG or next to him sliding Burton to the bigger forward spot ... meaning I've got Bigelow and Grace on the bench.
as coach I'd be watching Bigelow closely all offseason. if he's a guy I decide I want on the floor 25-30 mpg, then I start with that and work backwards.
That is the lineup I favor as well, and the debate on it has only hardened my position. Everything points to Quinn as center -- Mooney's comments, SpiderDad's comments, his past performance, etc. Burton has to start. Mooney likes Goose, he is a returning starter on a team that lost 3 starters, and is the best defensive player we have. Maybe a healthy Bailey surprises us and becomes the PG, but for now I'll stick with Nelson there. What is this lineup missing? A healthy Nick Sherod or Jason Roche is the PERFECT fit for that last spot. The lineup just doesn't work as well without that sharpshooter in it.
At times Nate was our only inside presence and usually with his quickness and driving ability created matchup issues
for the opposing team. Agreed between foul shooting and outside 4 feet, he was not a good option. But hope someone like Bigelow will be a dual threat, inside and out.
Agreed. I like this line-up. I don't see Roche playing the 3, but certainly I could see Goose sliding over to play the 3. Offensively, his game is very similar to many of Mooney's past 3's (FCM, Butler, Deion), which are guys that aren't great shooters, can slash, and give you great defense and intangibles. Goose has the size/length to play the 3, albeit a bit undersized.
I also think if Goose moves to the 3, Tyler moves to the 4, which I think is a better fit for him as well (Tyler is not a very good perimeter defender, but excellent rebounder) and he will get a bit less perimeter defense and a bit more rebounding position. Bigelow gets bench minutes for Tyler but also some for Goose, Grace does the same for Quinn and Burton.
Lastly, Goose at the 3, helps loosen up our log jam of players at the 2.
So, I don't know about you all but I think we just solved this problem for Mooney.
If he plays 25-30 minutes a game, I think he averages 10-12 ppg.
Sorry, but I have already slotted him in for only 9 minutes per game.
During which time over 31 games, he will be 217 of 279 from three.
(Taking 1 per minute, making 77.7778%)
So that should help with the scoring...
If we need a shooter - are we sleeping on Bigelow. Before his ACL injury - he shot 38% from 3. After the knee injury he dipped to 30% - but I think the capability is there for him to be a good shooter. Pair that with Burton - who shot 36% from deep and Grace I think is just as good as Golden right around 30% maybe better.
The biggest unknown right now with Roche is that if we all agree he is our best shooter, and he probably his - we have no idea what else he brings to the table. Its hard to gauge his defense at this point, and we don't know how well he can handle the ball or pass the ball. At the Citadel - he only had 21 assists all season, but is that because he just shoots when he gets it or he is not a good passer? We also don't know - as has been outlined here, what Roche do we get. Did he hit Frosh wall last season and that hurt his shooting? Or did teams focus on him and then he became a 30% shooter. Yes he had good games vs. Pitt and Chattanooga, but he also was 2-7, 2-6, 2-9, 1-6, 3-7, 2-8 vs teams like Chattanooga, Furman, Mercer, Samford, etc. And I think we all agree - we expect the competition to be better in the A10, especially from the guard position.
The biggest unknown right now with Roche is that if we all agree he is our best shooter, and he probably his - we have no idea what else he brings to the table. Its hard to gauge his defense at this point, and we don't know how well he can handle the ball or pass the ball. At the Citadel - he only had 21 assists all season, but is that because he just shoots when he gets it or he is not a good passer? We also don't know - as has been outlined here, what Roche do we get. Did he hit Frosh wall last season and that hurt his shooting? Or did teams focus on him and then he became a 30% shooter. Yes he had good games vs. Pitt and Chattanooga, but he also was 2-7, 2-6, 2-9, 1-6, 3-7, 2-8 vs teams like Chattanooga, Furman, Mercer, Samford, etc. And I think we all agree - we expect the competition to be better in the A10, especially from the guard position.
Goose and Roche aren't assists guys. Goose only had 31 himself. Goose will drive more. Roche rarely drives or shoots from 2. he made 14 2's all year playing 36 mpg in 31 games. neither rebounds particularly well.
interestingly, Bigelow had more assists than either Roche or Goose with 42 in minutes comparable to Goose's. obvioulsly he's a substantially better rebounder. like Roche, maybe Bigelow hit a late season wall too. he only hit 4 of his last 22 from 3.
interestingly, Bigelow had more assists than either Roche or Goose with 42 in minutes comparable to Goose's. obvioulsly he's a substantially better rebounder. like Roche, maybe Bigelow hit a late season wall too. he only hit 4 of his last 22 from 3.
All shooters will have bad games. The bottom line is that Roche shot a ton of threes and made a ton of them ā and a very high percentage of them.
As for Bigelow, I think at his best he could give us something like the best of Cayo and Sherod ā a guy who can play inside and score there but who can also step out and drain threes.
As for Bigelow, I think at his best he could give us something like the best of Cayo and Sherod ā a guy who can play inside and score there but who can also step out and drain threes.
What else is there besides volume and percentage. How else would you define "best"?
Based on the film we have seen - Bigelow looks like a guy who can shoot, but also provide that score inside and he seems to bring an intensity to the floor. Not to mention - I have to imagine he is hungry. Coming off injury and now looking to play big minutes and get to the NCAA - I expect him to be a guy fighting for rebounds, diving for loose balls, and just giving full effort all the time.
I would personally like to revive this thread, as it does, indeed, seem like Mooney is sleeping on Roche. Let's throw out some stats:
Roche leads our lineup in Total Shooting Percentage at 65.7%, this takes into account 2 PT, 3 PT, and FT shooting. Next best is Quinn (65.1%), then Randolph (59.2%).
Roche has the 3rd highest Player Efficiency rating at 15.8, behind Burton (23.6) and Quinn (21.9)
Roche was 4th on our team in RPIM per Game for OOC (Grace just eclipsed him after last night)
Roche has the 2nd highest Effective Field Goal percentage at 63.2%, behind only Quinn (66%). This takes into account 3's being worth more than 2's
Roche is 3rd on the team in Win Shares, including both offense and defense, at 1.2, behind only Burton (2.4) and Quinn (1.5)
Roche is 2nd on the team in Offensive +/- at 3.9, behind only Burton (5.2). Even with his Defensive +/- being -0.3, he's still T-3 on the team.
Oh and don't forget the fact that Roche is 92.3% from the line, by far the highest on our team.
Meanwhile, Roche has the 3rd lowest Usage Percentage at 15.6%, ahead of only Randolph (13.5%) and the Goose (10.8%)
In my mind, it's clear this season that Mooney has a mentality of lock up on defense and hope the shots will fall offensively. He's said it multiple times in interviews that some games will go well offensively and some won't (potentially to protect himself). So far, it seems far too many have gone far more poorly than our defense can make up for.
Say what you want about Roche's lackluster defensive ability and his inability to rebound, but ultimately, our team needs a jumpstart, and I'd be willing to give up some more points if that means more for our offense.
Inserting Roche into the starting lineup will add an element A-10 teams would have to account for, and they would have minimal info to go off of this season if he starts. This could give Burton a bit more space to work with and perform at an even higher level if Roche performs well. Right now, Burton is our only threat. Roche's efficiency offensively is well needed, and it shows in his limited minutes so far this season.
Roche leads our lineup in Total Shooting Percentage at 65.7%, this takes into account 2 PT, 3 PT, and FT shooting. Next best is Quinn (65.1%), then Randolph (59.2%).
Roche has the 3rd highest Player Efficiency rating at 15.8, behind Burton (23.6) and Quinn (21.9)
Roche was 4th on our team in RPIM per Game for OOC (Grace just eclipsed him after last night)
Roche has the 2nd highest Effective Field Goal percentage at 63.2%, behind only Quinn (66%). This takes into account 3's being worth more than 2's
Roche is 3rd on the team in Win Shares, including both offense and defense, at 1.2, behind only Burton (2.4) and Quinn (1.5)
Roche is 2nd on the team in Offensive +/- at 3.9, behind only Burton (5.2). Even with his Defensive +/- being -0.3, he's still T-3 on the team.
Oh and don't forget the fact that Roche is 92.3% from the line, by far the highest on our team.
Meanwhile, Roche has the 3rd lowest Usage Percentage at 15.6%, ahead of only Randolph (13.5%) and the Goose (10.8%)
In my mind, it's clear this season that Mooney has a mentality of lock up on defense and hope the shots will fall offensively. He's said it multiple times in interviews that some games will go well offensively and some won't (potentially to protect himself). So far, it seems far too many have gone far more poorly than our defense can make up for.
Say what you want about Roche's lackluster defensive ability and his inability to rebound, but ultimately, our team needs a jumpstart, and I'd be willing to give up some more points if that means more for our offense.
Inserting Roche into the starting lineup will add an element A-10 teams would have to account for, and they would have minimal info to go off of this season if he starts. This could give Burton a bit more space to work with and perform at an even higher level if Roche performs well. Right now, Burton is our only threat. Roche's efficiency offensively is well needed, and it shows in his limited minutes so far this season.
8legs1dream
Graduate Assistant
be careful! you aren't allowed to say that Mooney does anything wrong or his fan club will come after you with the pitchforks out
I think Roche is an excellent shooter. And I think he can shoot a high percentage. BUT - it is clear our offense is not going to design plays to get him shots. He must get them in the normal flow of the offense. Which - can happen when Burton is driving and option 1, and Nelson is able to create off the dribble. When those two guys are clicking and the ball is moving, not only off the dribble, but with quick passes and back door cuts - Roche will get shots.
BUT - also remember, scouting reports will be more difficult in the A10. Coaches and teams are used to our offense, they are used to our motion, and the instruction will be to fly at Roche and make him shoot a 2 instead of 3. So I think shots will be tougher to come by in the A10, especially since we don't design plays for him specifically. I think he will continue to have games where he is on fire and goes 4-6 from deep and gives us a boost, and then others like Mason where he goes 0-3 and gives us nothing.
Would more minutes provide more opportunity for Roche to shoot? Probably. But then your asking Roche to play than Goose, and I don't see Mooney doing that. Look at the Mason game - Nelson was in foul trouble early. Who comes in - Randolph. Why not Roche? Let Goose handle the ball with Burton to help. With no Nelson the entire first half, Roche plays about 7 minutes. That would have been an ideal time to play him more.
BUT - also remember, scouting reports will be more difficult in the A10. Coaches and teams are used to our offense, they are used to our motion, and the instruction will be to fly at Roche and make him shoot a 2 instead of 3. So I think shots will be tougher to come by in the A10, especially since we don't design plays for him specifically. I think he will continue to have games where he is on fire and goes 4-6 from deep and gives us a boost, and then others like Mason where he goes 0-3 and gives us nothing.
Would more minutes provide more opportunity for Roche to shoot? Probably. But then your asking Roche to play than Goose, and I don't see Mooney doing that. Look at the Mason game - Nelson was in foul trouble early. Who comes in - Randolph. Why not Roche? Let Goose handle the ball with Burton to help. With no Nelson the entire first half, Roche plays about 7 minutes. That would have been an ideal time to play him more.
I disagree. Roche is not a ballhandler and you can't leave Goose or Randolph out there by themselves because while they both can bring the ball up the court, neither have the ballhandling abilities of Nelson. Teams would press and trap us extensively if we had a backcourt of Goose/Roche or Randolph/Roche.
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