I think now is best for my hiatus to come to an end. This season has been incredibly fun to watch and not having fellow Spiders to enjoy it with has just made it nowhere near as fun as it should have been. Next up we have the Davidson Wildcats!
Davidson Wildcats (15-13, 9-7 A10)
Who have they played?
Here are a list of Davidson's non-conference losses (with current team record):
Auburn (24-5)
Wake Forest (13-15)
Marquette (18-10)
Temple (14-15)
Vanderbilt (9-20)
Charlotte (15-12)
I know what you must be thinking. Five of these losses are to power conference teams and the only other one in Charlotte is at least over .500 (although Charlotte also beat Wake Forest this year). When you look at it you realize that Davidson went 0-5 against teams in big conferences.
To contrast here were Davidson's non-conference wins:
UNC Wilmington (10-21)
Nevada (19-11)
Fairfield (11-18)
Northeastern (15-15)
Coppin State (10-20)
Loyola Chicago (21-10)
Now two of those wins aren't bad in Nevada and Loyola Chicago as they have net ratings of 86 and 98 respectively, but only one of the other 4 wins was against a team with a net rating better than 280.
Now the conference schedule has been a bitter better for Davidson as they sit 9-7 with quality wins over Saint Louis, Rhode Island, and Saint Bonaventure. The problem is that they also have lost to Saint Joseph's (The Hawks are 2-14 in A10 play) and George Washington. That also can be a bit of a problem because of their 7 conference losses those are the only bad ones. Their other 5 are to Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, VCU, and Dayton (you could argue the VCU loss is bad but we lost at VCU by more). They have beaten almost all the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to almost all the teams they were supposed to lose to.
Key Players?
I'm not going to get cute with it. Kellen Grady. He is averaging 17 points per game to go with 4.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists. Those sound nice though but this has been arguably the worst season of his career and he has seen minimal progress from his sophomore season (which was good but he should have seen a much bigger improvement - and arguably his sophomore season was worse than his freshman season). Grady is the leader of this team but I actually don't think he will be the most important player in this game.
That honor goes to...John Axel Gudmundsson. Gudmundsson is a threat and is average 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. He is averaging 2.7 fewer points than Grady per game but has attempted 78 fewer shots on the season. He leads the team in rebounding and assists and only averages 0.2 turnovers more per game than Grady. He leads the team with 54 made 3's but he only shoots them at a 33.5% clip.
The other two players averaging double digit points are Luka Brajkovic with 10.4, 5 rebounds, and 1.6 assists and Carter Collins with 10.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists.
Key Stats and Matchups?
The first thing I noticed about Davidson is that their assists are very spread out with the non ball dominant guard Gudmundsson leading the way with 4.5 and then Grady following with 2.5. After this though it is interesting as they have seven players who average between 0.8 and 1.6 assists per game. And this is not taking into account bench players who barely play. They may not have one guy dishing out assist after assist but they can all get the job done and move the ball around well. Don't forget that Gudmundsson had 7 assists vs us the first time around. Everyone on this team can pass the ball but this high of an assist total tells me one thing, and that is that this team can hit the 3 and is not scared to take the 3. Stopping them from 3 will be absolutely key in this one.
Davidson has attempted 700 threes this season compared to 646 for Richmond and is shooting at a better percentage (36.9 vs 36.2). Davidson's 3 point percentage is 30th in the nation while Richmond's is 49th. Certainly both good numbers. Davidson has made the 44th most 3's and Richmond has made the 108th most. This will tell you where Davidson's priorities lie as they will shoot the 3 ball and are not afraid to average 25 attempts from beyond the arc per game. A key stat here is that while Davidson is 44th in made 3's they are only 92nd in 3's attempted. That shows you how efficient and deadly they are behind the arc! The Spiders are 108th in made 3's and 165th in attempts which I don't believe is anywhere near as impressive. Stopping Davidson from 3 will be key.
All 7 of Davidson's players that average 15+ minutes shoot the 3 ball with at least 33.3% efficiency and two of those players are 40% and above. At the end of the day though, Gudmundsson, Grady, Collins, and Hyungjung Lee have combined for 498 of their 700 threes (71%) but none of those guys shoot at better than 37.4%. They take a lot and they are not afraid to miss. 3's can be an absolute rally killer and we need to get the home crowd behind us and keep Davidson from hitting that 3 that kills our momentum and quiets the crowd. I believe we have the edge in 3 point percentage by our "key" guys as Gilyard hits 3's at 37.8%, Francis at 36.5%, and Sherod at 42.4%. Wojcik has noticeably been down this season but is still at least hitting the 3 at 36.7% in his limited chances. We don't want to play their game and jack up a ton of 3's but if we are smart with our shots we can be successful. That means no 3's from Grant or Andre. I love them both but they are left open behind the arc for a reason. Grant is 4 for 18 on the year but Andre is 5 for 36 (13.9%) while shooting 41 for 68 (60.3%) on all other shots!
Andre's incredible percentage from 2 is a perfect transition into the next key stat which is 2 point %. Richmond is at 55th in the nation (interestingly enough tied with Stanford and Utah State - two fellow bubble teams, and Auburn and South Alabama - teams we played) at 53.1% while Davidson is 87th (tied with Alabama) at 52.2%. Davidson's point per shot (on all shots) is 49th at 1.30 which is actually above Richmond who is 62nd at 1.29. That goes to show you how important the 3 is for them and that they are able to overcome their non-elite shooting percentages with volume.
So this all seems kind of bleak and like Davidson is a bad matchup due to their ability to score. In OOC play when Davidson shot under 36% from 3 they were 0-5 (including an 0-15 night against Marquette) and 6-1 when shooting better. That split right there is alarming and shows you that this team in out of conference play was the exact definition of streaky and living and dying by the 3. And in the one game they lost when shooting above that they shot 45.2% from 3. How did they lose? They went 38% from two (10 for 26) and had a one to one turnover ratio.
But what about conference play? Did that number hold up? So far in conference play they are 3-4 when shooting under 36% and 6-3 when shooting better. Also a reminder that Davidson went 8 for 33 (24.2%) against us in the first matchup. In their two games they won shooting under 36% from 3 in one they went 26 of 32 from the free throw line (fouls were 25-12 in their favor) and the other 22-29 (both games were at home and officiating was very questionable). As you can see this doesn't hold up as well in conference play but it definitely shows that keeping Davidson to a low shooting percentage from 3 will assist in winning the game.
Now on to something encouraging. Savidson is 312th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game with 7.9 which will help in limiting their second chance points. The unfortunate thing to this is that in our first meeting Davidson grabbed 13 offensive rebounds to our 26 defensive rebounds. So 1 out of every 3 missed shots they were able to get and attempt another shot. With their points per shot we need to limit those rebounds. Davidson is 164th in the nation in defensive rebounds per game (25.6) which is something we could take advantage of and could be a scenario where Tyler Burton is a spark off the bench. Despite playing 57% as many minutes as either Cayo or Golden he has 87% of the offensive rebounds either of them do. Even defensively his "rebounds per minute" (is that a stat?) is much higher than Cayo's.
Now for what we are best at! Richmond is 14th in the nation in free throw percentage at 77.4%. Davidson though is 29th at 76%. This team seems to be right with us in nearly every statistic and this feels like a game that we could win easily if they are cold from 3 or that they could run away with if they have a night where they shoot 50% or better like they have done on more than one occasion this season. Davidson attempts nearly one more free throw than us per game so not fouling their shooters on 3's is going to be key.
Richmond is 26th in the nation in assists (15.3) and 18th in limiting turnovers (10.8) for a turnover ratio of 1.41/1 which is 7th in D1. Keeping track of the ball will be paramount in this game and could be where we truly make a difference. Davidson is 89th in assists (14.2) and 25th in limiting turnovers for a ratio of 1.27/1 which while not quite on par with us is still good for 31st in the country. Even the things we are elite at Davidson is also good at. This team seems to be much better than the record shows and as I've mentioned a million times I believe that to be due to the 3 point volume.
One thing we may be able to take advantage of is our ability to force turnovers. Even though Davidson is not turnover prone we do have Jacob Gilyard and his 3.2 steals per game (second to Juvaris Hayes of Merrimack who has an incredible 20 steals his past 4 games!) We are 31st in the nation in steals per game at 8.14 and we are actually 4th in the nation in steals to turnover ratio at 0.75 (ironically tied with VCU). Davidson is 148th at 0.50.
(Post was too long to post and was over character limit so final paragraph in post below)
Davidson Wildcats (15-13, 9-7 A10)
Who have they played?
Here are a list of Davidson's non-conference losses (with current team record):
Auburn (24-5)
Wake Forest (13-15)
Marquette (18-10)
Temple (14-15)
Vanderbilt (9-20)
Charlotte (15-12)
I know what you must be thinking. Five of these losses are to power conference teams and the only other one in Charlotte is at least over .500 (although Charlotte also beat Wake Forest this year). When you look at it you realize that Davidson went 0-5 against teams in big conferences.
To contrast here were Davidson's non-conference wins:
UNC Wilmington (10-21)
Nevada (19-11)
Fairfield (11-18)
Northeastern (15-15)
Coppin State (10-20)
Loyola Chicago (21-10)
Now two of those wins aren't bad in Nevada and Loyola Chicago as they have net ratings of 86 and 98 respectively, but only one of the other 4 wins was against a team with a net rating better than 280.
Now the conference schedule has been a bitter better for Davidson as they sit 9-7 with quality wins over Saint Louis, Rhode Island, and Saint Bonaventure. The problem is that they also have lost to Saint Joseph's (The Hawks are 2-14 in A10 play) and George Washington. That also can be a bit of a problem because of their 7 conference losses those are the only bad ones. Their other 5 are to Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, VCU, and Dayton (you could argue the VCU loss is bad but we lost at VCU by more). They have beaten almost all the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to almost all the teams they were supposed to lose to.
Key Players?
I'm not going to get cute with it. Kellen Grady. He is averaging 17 points per game to go with 4.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists. Those sound nice though but this has been arguably the worst season of his career and he has seen minimal progress from his sophomore season (which was good but he should have seen a much bigger improvement - and arguably his sophomore season was worse than his freshman season). Grady is the leader of this team but I actually don't think he will be the most important player in this game.
That honor goes to...John Axel Gudmundsson. Gudmundsson is a threat and is average 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. He is averaging 2.7 fewer points than Grady per game but has attempted 78 fewer shots on the season. He leads the team in rebounding and assists and only averages 0.2 turnovers more per game than Grady. He leads the team with 54 made 3's but he only shoots them at a 33.5% clip.
The other two players averaging double digit points are Luka Brajkovic with 10.4, 5 rebounds, and 1.6 assists and Carter Collins with 10.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.5 assists.
Key Stats and Matchups?
The first thing I noticed about Davidson is that their assists are very spread out with the non ball dominant guard Gudmundsson leading the way with 4.5 and then Grady following with 2.5. After this though it is interesting as they have seven players who average between 0.8 and 1.6 assists per game. And this is not taking into account bench players who barely play. They may not have one guy dishing out assist after assist but they can all get the job done and move the ball around well. Don't forget that Gudmundsson had 7 assists vs us the first time around. Everyone on this team can pass the ball but this high of an assist total tells me one thing, and that is that this team can hit the 3 and is not scared to take the 3. Stopping them from 3 will be absolutely key in this one.
Davidson has attempted 700 threes this season compared to 646 for Richmond and is shooting at a better percentage (36.9 vs 36.2). Davidson's 3 point percentage is 30th in the nation while Richmond's is 49th. Certainly both good numbers. Davidson has made the 44th most 3's and Richmond has made the 108th most. This will tell you where Davidson's priorities lie as they will shoot the 3 ball and are not afraid to average 25 attempts from beyond the arc per game. A key stat here is that while Davidson is 44th in made 3's they are only 92nd in 3's attempted. That shows you how efficient and deadly they are behind the arc! The Spiders are 108th in made 3's and 165th in attempts which I don't believe is anywhere near as impressive. Stopping Davidson from 3 will be key.
All 7 of Davidson's players that average 15+ minutes shoot the 3 ball with at least 33.3% efficiency and two of those players are 40% and above. At the end of the day though, Gudmundsson, Grady, Collins, and Hyungjung Lee have combined for 498 of their 700 threes (71%) but none of those guys shoot at better than 37.4%. They take a lot and they are not afraid to miss. 3's can be an absolute rally killer and we need to get the home crowd behind us and keep Davidson from hitting that 3 that kills our momentum and quiets the crowd. I believe we have the edge in 3 point percentage by our "key" guys as Gilyard hits 3's at 37.8%, Francis at 36.5%, and Sherod at 42.4%. Wojcik has noticeably been down this season but is still at least hitting the 3 at 36.7% in his limited chances. We don't want to play their game and jack up a ton of 3's but if we are smart with our shots we can be successful. That means no 3's from Grant or Andre. I love them both but they are left open behind the arc for a reason. Grant is 4 for 18 on the year but Andre is 5 for 36 (13.9%) while shooting 41 for 68 (60.3%) on all other shots!
Andre's incredible percentage from 2 is a perfect transition into the next key stat which is 2 point %. Richmond is at 55th in the nation (interestingly enough tied with Stanford and Utah State - two fellow bubble teams, and Auburn and South Alabama - teams we played) at 53.1% while Davidson is 87th (tied with Alabama) at 52.2%. Davidson's point per shot (on all shots) is 49th at 1.30 which is actually above Richmond who is 62nd at 1.29. That goes to show you how important the 3 is for them and that they are able to overcome their non-elite shooting percentages with volume.
So this all seems kind of bleak and like Davidson is a bad matchup due to their ability to score. In OOC play when Davidson shot under 36% from 3 they were 0-5 (including an 0-15 night against Marquette) and 6-1 when shooting better. That split right there is alarming and shows you that this team in out of conference play was the exact definition of streaky and living and dying by the 3. And in the one game they lost when shooting above that they shot 45.2% from 3. How did they lose? They went 38% from two (10 for 26) and had a one to one turnover ratio.
But what about conference play? Did that number hold up? So far in conference play they are 3-4 when shooting under 36% and 6-3 when shooting better. Also a reminder that Davidson went 8 for 33 (24.2%) against us in the first matchup. In their two games they won shooting under 36% from 3 in one they went 26 of 32 from the free throw line (fouls were 25-12 in their favor) and the other 22-29 (both games were at home and officiating was very questionable). As you can see this doesn't hold up as well in conference play but it definitely shows that keeping Davidson to a low shooting percentage from 3 will assist in winning the game.
Now on to something encouraging. Savidson is 312th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game with 7.9 which will help in limiting their second chance points. The unfortunate thing to this is that in our first meeting Davidson grabbed 13 offensive rebounds to our 26 defensive rebounds. So 1 out of every 3 missed shots they were able to get and attempt another shot. With their points per shot we need to limit those rebounds. Davidson is 164th in the nation in defensive rebounds per game (25.6) which is something we could take advantage of and could be a scenario where Tyler Burton is a spark off the bench. Despite playing 57% as many minutes as either Cayo or Golden he has 87% of the offensive rebounds either of them do. Even defensively his "rebounds per minute" (is that a stat?) is much higher than Cayo's.
Now for what we are best at! Richmond is 14th in the nation in free throw percentage at 77.4%. Davidson though is 29th at 76%. This team seems to be right with us in nearly every statistic and this feels like a game that we could win easily if they are cold from 3 or that they could run away with if they have a night where they shoot 50% or better like they have done on more than one occasion this season. Davidson attempts nearly one more free throw than us per game so not fouling their shooters on 3's is going to be key.
Richmond is 26th in the nation in assists (15.3) and 18th in limiting turnovers (10.8) for a turnover ratio of 1.41/1 which is 7th in D1. Keeping track of the ball will be paramount in this game and could be where we truly make a difference. Davidson is 89th in assists (14.2) and 25th in limiting turnovers for a ratio of 1.27/1 which while not quite on par with us is still good for 31st in the country. Even the things we are elite at Davidson is also good at. This team seems to be much better than the record shows and as I've mentioned a million times I believe that to be due to the 3 point volume.
One thing we may be able to take advantage of is our ability to force turnovers. Even though Davidson is not turnover prone we do have Jacob Gilyard and his 3.2 steals per game (second to Juvaris Hayes of Merrimack who has an incredible 20 steals his past 4 games!) We are 31st in the nation in steals per game at 8.14 and we are actually 4th in the nation in steals to turnover ratio at 0.75 (ironically tied with VCU). Davidson is 148th at 0.50.
(Post was too long to post and was over character limit so final paragraph in post below)
