Bubble Watch

[Eight Legger]

NET says that our second worst loss ALL SEASON was the home loss to UMass – a team that is currently 85 in the NET, a team that is going to finish fourth or fifth in our league (potentially RIGHT BEHIND DAYTON, that "mortal lock"). That is our only home loss all season and is a Q3 loss. Ridiculous. Losing to a team outside of the top 75 at home should not be a Q3 loss.

 

[KE Spider]

If we astute posters can recognize the anomalies and some outright weaknesses in NET, why do we believe the Selection Committee won't recognize them as well and take them into account when assemblying the field?

 

[Eight Legger]

I just looked at records vs. the top 100 for a bunch of teams (mostly bubble). Here they are:

Richmond 7-5
Dayton 9-6
Loyola 8-6
Drake 4-1
UVA 9-8
JMU 1-2
Providence 7-11
Pitt 7-9
Oklahoma 8-10
Wake 10-9
FAU 8-3
St Johns 9-10
Colorado 9-6
Grand Canyon 3-1
Princeton 4-3
Villanova 10-10

I realize this is not a be-all/end-all type of thing, but I think it provides some good context about what type of team you really are. We stack up nicely and so does the top of our league.

 

[GKiller]

Assuming we get the 1 seed - then its looking like we would need to beat VCU or UMASS to make the A10 finals. That doesn't really help us. I think the best path - which is not possible for an at-large bid would have been if Dayton fell to 4th and we got to play them before the finals - beating them might have given us another push we needed. BUT - I think if we make the A10 finals, we might get thrown into that "Next four out" category (not first four out).

U think if we win out & lose in A10 finals we “might” get next four out? Think I’d call it a mortal lock we r at least in first four out in that scenario. And especially if it’s a loss to Dayton. Ncaa loves to throw a bone to mid major for first four outs. But we’d have good case to be IN. I’m not saying we would be in bc I’m worried and idk. There r also bid stealers that could happen usually there’s 1 maybe 2. But we’d be close regardless imo. Of course there’s no solace in first four out anyway. I’m still hoping for a huge blowout win somewhere but that’s not our team and shouldn’t be the factor it is.

 

[urmite]

U think if we win out & lose in A10 finals we “might” get next four out? Think I’d call it a mortal lock we r at least in first four out in that scenario. And especially if it’s a loss to Dayton. Ncaa loves to throw a bone to mid major for first four outs. But we’d have good case to be IN. I’m not saying we would be in bc I’m worried and idk. There r also bid stealers that could happen usually there’s 1 maybe 2. But we’d be close regardless imo. Of course there’s no solace in first four out anyway. I’m still hoping for a huge blowout win somewhere but that’s not our team and shouldn’t be the factor it is.

I am not expecting it, but I am preparing to revolt if…

We end up 26-8, with Brooklyn wins over GMU & UMass, and a loss to Dayton.
A final NET of 60, and 10th team out…

It would mean the committee has been replaced by AI robots who only look At analytics…

 

[SpiderTrap]

U think if we win out & lose in A10 finals we “might” get next four out? Think I’d call it a mortal lock we r at least in first four out in that scenario. And especially if it’s a loss to Dayton. Ncaa loves to throw a bone to mid major for first four outs. But we’d have good case to be IN. I’m not saying we would be in bc I’m worried and idk. There r also bid stealers that could happen usually there’s 1 maybe 2. But we’d be close regardless imo. Of course there’s no solace in first four out anyway. I’m still hoping for a huge blowout win somewhere but that’s not our team and shouldn’t be the factor it is.

I just don't know how much better our NET gets over the last week and A10 tourney. The key will be other bid stealers and how the committee looks at teams like

James Madison - NET 53 and 27-3
Princeton - NET 51 and 21-3.
Indiana St - NET 30 and 25-5
Drake - NET 48 and 24-6
Mcneese St - NET 58 - 23-3

Richmond - NET 70 and 22-7.

So your really looking at those NET teams between 50-70 (where UR is) and how do we fit against them. And in that group you have teams like
Seton Hall - NET 67 and 18-11.
Grand Canyon - NET 56 and 25-4
Iowa - NET 57 and 18-12.

I just see a lot of teams in there that would get thrown ahead of UR and its because the committee will USE the NET as an excuse for picking teams.

 

[Eight Legger]

It will just depend how deeply they actually dive into the true resumes of all these teams. If they look very closely at things, I like our odds (assuming we finish strong, win the league and don't lose in the first round of the A10 of course). We've played a lot of games against top-100 teams and Q1/2 teams in general (more than many of the other bubble teams), have a winning record against them in both cases, and would be the champion of a conference that is better than those of every team you listed.

 

[mr.spider]

It will just depend how deeply they actually dive into the true resumes of all these teams. If they look very closely at things, I like our odds (assuming we finish strong, win the league and don't lose in the first round of the A10 of course). We've played a lot of games against top-100 teams and Q1/2 teams in general (more than many of the other bubble teams), have a winning record against them in both cases, and would be the champion of a conference that is better than those of every team you listed.

Absolutely! We are in much better shape than it looks like by a quick glance at the NET rank, which is not horrible. Should be high enough along with a league championship from a solid league to take a deeper look. Keep winning and we got this! This team is special! A deep run in the NCAAs is very possible! What a story it will be for a coach recovering from heart surgery! GO SPIDERS!

 

[MooreHall73]

Swammy says, "This team is in the middle of it's second 11 game win streak of the season. They win the A-10, win their first round NCAA tournament game. The media loves the King, Siena walk on to first team A-10 story. And there is no more talk on this board of firing Mooney until October."
Sit back and enjoy the ride.

 

[GKiller]

I just don't know how much better our NET gets over the last week and A10 tourney. The key will be other bid stealers and how the committee looks at teams like

James Madison - NET 53 and 27-3
Princeton - NET 51 and 21-3.
Indiana St - NET 30 and 25-5
Drake - NET 48 and 24-6
Mcneese St - NET 58 - 23-3

Richmond - NET 70 and 22-7.

So your really looking at those NET teams between 50-70 (where UR is) and how do we fit against them. And in that group you have teams like
Seton Hall - NET 67 and 18-11.
Grand Canyon - NET 56 and 25-4
Iowa - NET 57 and 18-12.

I just see a lot of teams in there that would get thrown ahead of UR and its because the committee will USE the NET as an excuse for picking teams.

Well I'm glad you're off ESPN's BPI and onto NET finally regarding the committee.

True our NET won't be great. But there are always a couple with inflated NETs on bubble, that could be us.

But remember the whole premise was us winning out to A10 final. Our resume (and at least our Net a little) would improve. Other bubble teams aren't going to win 4 in a row. As of today, there is more comp, come Selection Sunday there would be less. U will have some of the non major teams win their auto bid. Ideally all. But if they don't they'll likely be taking a horrible loss that Richmond would not have. Many of the non majors will lose games while we're winning under the premise, tho some will improve. But if u have to project where we'd be at 26-8 which is a lot better. I honestly dont see a lot that would be thrown above us. Today yes. In another 10 days no, not if we win out. Again I'm not guaranteeing anything but we'd be stronger than Next Four Out imo.

 

[fatherspider]

If we astute posters can recognize the anomalies and some outright weaknesses in NET, why do we believe the Selection Committee won't recognize them as well and take them into account when assemblying the field?

Because its THEIR system... they won't admit their is something wrong with it at this point, imo. They will go with it this year, do what the pundits expect them to do, then maybe tweak it in the offseason. Do you really think they will give bids to teams in the 70's and 80's in NE over teams in the 30's and 40's and then have to admit the system was broken? I don't see that happening.

 

[fatherspider]

I wanted Cinci to win that game. Cinci still out if won. But Oklahoma would have been ultimate test case. A loss made them 7-10 in b12 w road game to end season. At 7-9 going in they were a 9 & 10 seeds in palm & Lunardi. 7-10 should not be in. 7-11 no chance. But got lucky & won. I still think they should be out if lose to TX then drop 1st game in b12. Overvalued like others. But that win hurt us (8-9 vs 7-10 swing in b12 standings) or other bubbles bc a team solidly in all of a sudden goes out imo with work to do.

I hope we win A10 tourney to guarantee bid and potentially best seed. But there is still small path to at large. & UNLV is tied for 2nd in MWC. They r not taking all those Mwc teams over us if we do what’s needed. I’d love to prove Mitch’s brother, Jon Cumstein, wrong.

If they are projected 9 or 10 they are solidly in. Just saying

 

[KE Spider]

Because its THEIR system... they won't admit their is something wrong with it at this point, imo. They will go with it this year, do what the pundits expect them to do, then maybe tweak it in the offseason. Do you really think they will give bids to teams in the 70's and 80's in NE over teams in the 30's and 40's and then have to admit the system was broken? I don't see that happening.

They have occasionally selected teams in the 60s over teams in the 30s and 40s in the past. See no reason this year should be different. This is documented in posts here somewhere. Plus they have repeatedly stated that NET is a primary tool, but not the sole metric considered.

Keep winning. I remain hopeful.

 

[SFspidur]

Thinking Bonne will end up getting the 4 seed over Mass - they have 2 pretty seemingly easy games left and have the tiebreakers I believe over VCU/Mass ..

Bonnies about to fall to GW..

 

[Dr. Spidey]

How bad are the Bonnies

 

[SFspidur]

This was pre-game, but I'm sure tonight's result didn't change his opinion...nobody but Dayton with a shot at an at-large. Keep grinding, guys!

 

[Eight Legger]

He's just flat wrong at this point. He thinks the A10 is a really good league but also thinks it only deserves one team? Shut the hell up. WTF logic is that? We're 18 and goddamned 2 in our last 20 games in the eighth-ranked league in the country. What more do we need to do?

 

[SpiderDad75]

This was pre-game, but I'm sure tonight's result didn't change his opinion...nobody but Dayton with a shot at an at-large. Keep grinding, guys!

View embedded media

He’s about as lame as he is tall…all these guys are the same. Dayton meat riders 🤦🏼‍♂️

 

[urmite]

Bonnies about to fall to GW..

Ending 12 game losing streak by GW…

 

[PalmTreeSpidUR]

I like to think we also have (our own) history on our side. As an earlier poster alluded to, the media (and sometimes the committee) love a good story. We ARE the original giant-killers and continue that reputation though some of us think we've outgrown it. I would like to think if it comes down to us and a school that doesn't have a prior history of "spinning" upsets, that tilts the scale in our favor.

 

[CarolinaSpider]

Spiders, men and women, have been consistent this year from a standpoint of strong
win streaks and losses spaced out. There is a lot of parity in the A10 where anyone
on any given night can win. An injury or two can change the whole season unless your
bench comes through. Mooney has enough depth that he has been able to play situational
basketball extremely well this year and come out on the positive side.

 

[SpiderFan]

I think Joe is unfortunately spot on with his comments. He's not the only one who sees it either. Almost no site or analyst has us even on the bubble currently. That doesn't mean its not been a great season but the conference just isn't a "strong" conference as in other years. Here's an interesting note from The Athletic regarding the A10 from a "bracket busters" standpoint, we all knew our team is not great at rebounding, but this puts it in stark perspective:

Atlantic 10 is a jumble​

UMass Minutemen (Underdog Rating: 15.7)

St. Bonaventure Bonnies (UR: 14.9)

Saint Joseph’s Hawks (UR: 12.7)

Dayton has played well enough this season that the Flyers have probably nailed down a No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They’re 23-6, with one loss to Houston and five to other opponents by a combined 21 points. It’s Richmond, however, that leads the A-10 by a game over the Flyers and Loyola Chicago, and stands to earn the conference’s automatic bid. Problem is, Richmond ranks 362nd in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing only 17.1 percent of its own missed shots. That’s 362nd out of 362 D-I programs.

Look, there are plenty of ways to compete without emphasizing the offensive boards, and Chris Mooney has won more games at Richmond than any other coach. But there’s just no record of a longshot with anything like those numbers pulling off an upset in the NCAA Tournament. To overcome a superior opponent’s shooting, an underdog needs to build possessions — and take some chances doing so. If you walk the ball up the court deliberately, protect it exceptionally well, pass accurately inside and hit threes that open up, you can beat VMI and Siena and Queens University of Charlotte and William & Mary and Buffalo and Lafayette. And, well, that’s most of Richmond’s non-conference wins. But that style won’t work against Auburn or Marquette. Slingshot estimates Richmond would underperform against an NCAA Tournament favorite by a whopping 8.7 points per 100 possessions and assigns the Spiders an Underdog Rating of just 4.7.

Loyola (4.1) fares even worse: The Ramblers also forgo offensive rebounding (ranking 291st) and turn the ball over on 18.8 percent of possessions, a rate far worse than Richmond (ranking 289th). They’re a top-100 team in shooting from inside and outside but barely a top-200 offense overall.

So give us literally almost anyone else from the A-10. UMass (15.7), now coached by Frank Martin, hits the offensive glass and forces turnovers. St. Bonaventure (14.9) keeps things slow and has three players shooting 39 percent or better from behind the arc. Saint Joseph’s (12.7) ranks 11th in the nation in 3-point shots as a percentage of field-goal attempts. The main building on the campus at Fordham (5.4) is named Keating Hall. Slingshot says there are nine teams in the A-10 whose basic power rating is between 7 and 12 points per 100 possessions better than average, which should make for an entertaining tournament. Hopefully one of them will rescue the conference from squandering its second bid on an experiment in risk aversion.

That being said I'm just going to enjoy the season and hope for an A10 championship!

 

[GKiller]

slingshot wtf is slingshot. Oh no slingshot says we'd perform poorly. We are one of the best all time in NCAA to do it as underdog and this year would be no different if we got in.

 

[Eight Legger]

The league is the eighth-best conference in the country. There are 32 conferences. A team that goes 15-3 or 16-2 and wins that league deserves to be in, end of story.

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

Aren't we top 10 nationally in turnover rate/lack of turnovers?

Also, as per the broadcast last night, we are 12th nationally in opponent FG%.

They also conveniently leave out an OOC neutral-site 30 point win over 2nd place MWC team UNLV since it does not fit the narrative.

also, and mainly, since when is a team's body of work for evaluation of inclusion into the tournament - ITS FREAKING RESULTS - graded on a predictive metric of what will happen in a hypothetical game, based upon one statistic????

Why play the tournament at all? Just plug your metric of choice and say "Well, no way Villanova could overcome Patrick Ewing and Georgetown, the stats show me it's impossible, they'd have to shoot better than 65% and no chance that is happening."

EDIT - I thought the above article was Lunardi's thoughts, but it is the Athletic's writer being quoted. My bad. But whatever, get us in there. Replaced my references to Lunardi in this post.

 

[GKiller]

Did JOC ask Joey Brackets if he was still on our payroll? Maybe this is his fault with the shitty ooc scheduling.

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

Iowa's 4 B10 tourney games in 2022
112 points
84 points
80 points
75 points

NCAA game vs Richmond
63 points

But clearly that game didn't happen, because offensive rebounding numbers say you can't do such things against P6 schools - they destroy you just by showing up.

 

[spiderman]

Did JOC ask Joey Brackets if he was still on our payroll? Maybe this is his fault with the shitty ooc scheduling.

it's not the schedule, it's the losses. one more win in the OOC and we're on the bubble. two more and we're locks. we lost some winnable games. DLo being out hurt. plus it's tough to be at your best early in the season with so many new faces.

 

[8legs1dream]

Being 362nd out of 362 at offensive rebounding is horrific, sure. But this writer seems to only care about that one stat lol

 

[gospidersgo]

Yeah I'm definitely one who has advocated for us to crash the offensive boards more, but that article is kooky.

 

[GKiller]

it's not the schedule, it's the losses. one more win in the OOC and we're on the bubble. two more and we're locks. we lost some winnable games. DLo being out hurt. plus it's tough to be at your best early in the season with so many new faces.

relax sman, just let me take a shot at that munchkin Lunardi.

Yes of course we had to win more, but the 6 dogshit home games did hurt. We've talked about that on here a bunch, u can't have that many 300+ games. Not when you're in the A10.

 

[spiderman]

relax sman, just let me take a shot at that munchkin Lunardi.

Yes of course we had to win more, but the 6 dogshit home games did hurt. We've talked about that on here a bunch, u can't have that many 300+ games. Not when you're in the A10.

I think with the NET, as long as you beat those teams convincingly it doesn't really hurt. and we did for the most part.

to me, losing the road games which we THOUGHT were good games (Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Boston College) is what's hurting us.

 

[Eight Legger]

I think we all agreed then that we needed to win 2 of those 3 games and should have. BUT... doesn't going 16-2 (potentially) in a top-8 league with 9 top-100 teams make up for not doing that? Our worst loss is to Wichita State (NET 150). I haven't checked, but I can't imagine there are NO bubble teams with worse losses than that. UNI is NET 108 - thankfully, they really turned it on after beating us.

The absurd thing here is that it feels like we are being held to a standard that is impossible for almost any team to maintain. What if we had gone 18-0 in the A-10? Still not good enough for the pundits, or would we magically be in had we beaten vcu on the road?

Here's how many teams in the country have gone undefeated in their conference this year: Zero.

Here's how many have 1 or 2 losses, like we do: Vermont (15-1), USF (16-1), UConn (17-2), Princeton (11-2), Colgate (16-2), McNeese State (17-1), St Mary’s (15-1). That's it. That's the whole damn list. And only UConn is in a better league than we are.

 

[Captain Anderson]

it's not the schedule, it's the losses. one more win in the OOC and we're on the bubble. two more and we're locks. we lost some winnable games. DLo being out hurt. plus it's tough to be at your best early in the season with so many new faces.

That's it. The margin is that small for a Mid Major. If you don't get a win (or two or three) in the OOC against teams that are NCAA bound then you have zero equity in the bank when the committee starts comparing your resume to other bubble teams this time of year. This spider squad is a very good team who has exceeded expectations and has done everything you could ask for in A-10 play. The players and coaches deserve all the praise and adulation in the world....but we only have one win over a tournament bound team (Dayton) and even when you look at Dayton's resume I'm not sure THEY have a win over a NCAA bound team.

 

[RichmondNative]

Almost no site or analyst has us even on the bubble currently. That doesn't mean its not been a great season but the conference just isn't a "strong" conference as in other years.

That being said I'm just going to enjoy the season and hope for an A10 championship!

As far as the A10 goes, it isn’t just this year. It is a trend. One or two bid league unless there are major changes and I just don’t see that happening. The A10 is a good fit for Richmond, but it isn’t the same conference competition wise that it joined. There will be competitive games in conference and the league is looking pretty good from top to bottom. However, it is a long way from 8th best league to 6th.

it's not the schedule, it's the losses……it's tough to be at your best early in the season with so many new faces.

From the schedule side, UR always seems to temper its schedule based on the strength of the team it has. This year they went with the conservative schedule that equates to a 2nd tier A10 finish. However, the team exceeded those expectations because all the portal adds were close to perfect fits.

Then there is the reason that it is going to be harder than it ever was to get an at large bid to the tournament. First, UR has to schedule enough quality games. Mooney has always said this was difficult and now with the P5 leagues getting bigger there are even less opportunities for OOC games. Plus, the current NET favors the blowout so more teams may follow the Big 12 blueprint from this year. Last as @spiderman points out, the team has to be playing its best basketball at the beginning of the year and now with the portal pressure it is going to be extra hard to have the required team chemistry. Lots of stars that are going to have to be in perfect alignment.

This is why my standard mantra is going to be hope for the A10 championship. It simply is the most likely scenario.

The “most likely” is exactly what the Athletic article was pointing out too. It simply was saying that the teams most likely to create chaos in the Big Dance are not the teams at the top of the A10 standings. Everyone knows that a one and done tournament is all about the matchups and we all know what type of team they like to put in the 12 seed spots. If upsets are what are what you want, you put the most likely teams to produce one there.

All that being said, keep on winning Spiders and keep the upset tradition alive and well!

 

[8legs1dream]

That's it. The margin is that small for a Mid Major. If you don't get a win (or two or three) in the OOC against teams that are NCAA bound then you have zero equity in the bank when the committee starts comparing your resume to other bubble teams this time of year. This spider squad is a very good team who has exceeded expectations and has done everything you could ask for in A-10 play. The players and coaches deserve all the praise and adulation in the world....but we only have one win over a tournament bound team (Dayton) and even when you look at Dayton's resume I'm not sure THEY have a win over a NCAA bound team.

Dayton is a lock for a 5 or 6 seed for months somehow. The great mystery.

 

[RichmondNative]

Dayton is a lock for a 5 or 6 seed for months somehow. The great mystery.

The worst part is that Dayton will be in a prime spot for an upset. Then it will be “see the A10 is not a good conference”.

At the start of the season, I thought Dayton was the best team in the A10. But then they lost Smith again and I haven’t watched a single conference game of theirs when I thought to myself “That is the best team in the conference” like I did in 2020.

 

[Captain Anderson]

Dayton is a lock for a 5 or 6 seed for months somehow. The great mystery.

The metrics love the Flyers. It feels strange writing this but I completely agree with everyone on this board who is saying that the A-10 is a much better league than it is being credited for and us winning the regular season should be given huge respect by the committee....BUT the unfortunate fact remains that nobody in the A-10 has a signature OOC win this year including the mighty Flyers which hurts all of us A-10 schools. At last check I think Dayton owned all the A-10's Quad 1 wins this year outside of our win over them. But again i'm not sure how many of the Flyer's Quad 1 wins were even over NCAA bound teams.

 

[8legs1dream]

The worst part is that Dayton will be in a prime spot for an upset. Then it will be “see the A10 is not a good conference”.

At the start of the season, I thought Dayton was the best team in the A10. But then they lost Smith again and I haven’t watched a single conference game of theirs when I thought to myself “That is the best team in the conference” like I did in 2020.

You nailed it, they will be the trendy upset special pick we will hear about it all week leading up to the games I guarantee it!

 

[8legs1dream]

The metrics love the Flyers. It feels strange writing this but I completely agree with everyone on this board who is saying that the A-10 is a much better league than it is being credited for and us winning the regular season should be given huge respect by the committee....BUT the unfortunate fact remains that nobody in the A-10 has a signature OOC win this year including the mighty Flyers which hurts all of us A-10 schools. At last check I think Dayton owned all the A-10's Quad 1 wins this year outside of our win over them. But again i'm not sure how many of the Flyer's Quad 1 wins were even over NCAA bound teams.

all A10 Q1 wins:

Dayton == neutral over St Johns, away over SMU, neutral over Cincinnati
Richmond == home over Dayton
vcu == home over Dayton
Mason == home over Dayton
Loyola == home over Dayton (noticing a pattern?? 🤣 )
UMass == away over Richmond
Duq == away over SBU (this is just barely a Q1 as of today)
St Joes == neutral over Villanova

So I guess Dayton has at least provided a nice cache of Q1 wins for the conference if nothing else lol