State of Program - 18 games into season

[SpiderTrap]

I was going to post this on the Bonnies thread, but thought it would be better to get off that one as I think everyone needs to calm down and take a deep breathe. We lost to the Bonnies on their home floor - its not the end of the world. In terms of some fans being sick of this type of result and seeing it for years and years, unfortunately - when Mooney made the dance last year and the school gave him the extension through 2026-2027, you have to reset your clock. You can't keep bringing up the 10 years of no NCAA appearances - that has been forgotten and replaced by the recent memory of the dance and A10 title. And unfortunately - based on the last few years, expect Mooney to be around for better or worse until at least the 25-26 season as the administration has shown, they will not fire him and pay him not to coach. But on to this season. Here is my breakdown of what we have so far.

Burton - first team all A10 player, and potential A10 POY of candidate with NBA hopes. He is the focal point of our team, will play 40 minutes most nights, and we need him to score 20+ a night to win most nights. It is asking a lot, but its the only formula that seems to be working. He has been cold the last 2 games, but I expect him to bounce back quickly.

Grace - Been up and down, and I think the injury hurt his progression. But he is still one of our best shooters on the team and we need a big man who can shoot in this offense to stretch the floor. In order for this team to make a run, we need Grace to play like MFG all the time and help Burton offensively and get 10+ points a night while playing 30 minutes.

Quinn - I expected Quinn to start slow, and thought it would take him some time to acclimate to our offense and competition, but he is more of a disappearing act right now than anything. And I think even Mooney is voicing that frustration a little bit as well. If we have a 7 footer in this offense who can't shoot, but is a decent passer and rebounder, then we need him to score around the rim. Getting 6-7 points, and 3 assists and 4 rebounds is fine when Burton scores 20+ and someone like Nelson or Grace or Roche scores as well, but we need Quinn to be a threat and I feel right now he is just a solid role player who other teams will play 1 v 1 down low because they know he won't take more than 5 shots on a given night. We need aggressive Quinn, especially when shots are not falling from the rest of the team.

Goose - He brings good defense and a lot of intangibles. But I for one, thought he would take a step forward on offense and give us something. On a team like last year, Goose is the perfect complimentary piece. But on a team like this year, we need him to do more, and I am just not sure he is capable of that.

Nelson - up and down. But this was my expectation. I expected him to play like a frosh. Some games he will be great, others he will be just okay, and some you will be left scratching your head. Point is - I think Nelson will be good down the road, the question is down the road next year or will be in the A10 tourney this year.

Bigelow - At times I wonder if he should start instead of Quinn. One game he looks great and the next, he lays an egg. I like Bigelow, I like his intensity, and I think he is a capable shooter. I think he should drive to the hoop more and sometimes settles for outside shots, and for that reason - I think he continues off the bench. If he looks like he is having a hot hand - you ride him. If not, you sit him back down. Probably our best rebounder as well, which will be needed against some A10 teams.

Roche - Shooter, shooter, shooter. He is a very good shooter off the bench. He plays his role perfectly. I think the issue is we are hoping he will go 4-6 every night and give us 12-15 points off the bench and that is just not realistic. Going forward - the question will be, can Roche fit into a bigger role (probably next year) or will he always be that shooter off the bench. I think if Nelson progresses, that will help Roche as he needs a guy who can drive and kick to him and that would be Nelson going forward.

Randolph - provides some spark and energy when needed off the bench. I just wonder how much he plays as the season progresses because I am expecting more Nelson and more Roche and that limits time for Randolph. Have not seen enough of him in long stretches, but I like what I see so far. HIs time might be next year when Goose leaves.

Bailey/Crabtree - I don't see anytime left for them, and I think the injury really hurt Bailey. We may need them, especially Bailey if another injury occurs to anyone above, but otherwise - I don't think their time is now.

Right now - our formula to win. Get 20+ from Burton, and then hope someone else like Roche, Nelson, and Grace provide enough support to keep the game close for UR to pull out a victory. This means we really need to limit turnovers, and shoot well most nights as our margin for error is very slim.

 

[Eight Legger]

The state of the program is pretty much exactly what it always is during the regular season: we have not won any games that we expected to lose, but we have lost several games that we expected to win. It would be nice to reverse that trend more frequently than during a two-week stretch in March every 11 years.

 

[97spiderfan]

We are 10-8, which means hold on for this, we are at 55%. For anyone who hasn't slept under a rock for the past 18 years, this probably comes us not a surprise at all. If I'm going to play this out, 13 games left, we probably go either 7-6 or maybe 8-5. Which would make our end of season record 17-14 or 18-13, again around 55%. That probably is not even close enough for NIT consideration. Rinse and repeat Spider friends, were in for another 5-6 years at least of the same ole Mooney mediocracy.

 

[urmite]

We are 10-8, which means hold on for this, we are at 55%. For anyone who hasn't slept under a rock for the past 18 years, this probably comes us not a surprise at all. If I'm going to play this out, 13 games left, we probably go either 7-6 or maybe 8-5. Which would make our end of season record 17-14 or 18-13, again around 55%. That probably is not even close enough for NIT consideration. Rinse and repeat Spider friends, were in for another 5-6 years at least of the same ole Mooney mediocracy.

Everyone complains about 55%.
I am perfectly fine with 55%...
of the points...
every game...

 

[SpiderTrap]

We are 10-8, which means hold on for this, we are at 55%. For anyone who hasn't slept under a rock for the past 18 years, this probably comes us not a surprise at all. If I'm going to play this out, 13 games left, we probably go either 7-6 or maybe 8-5. Which would make our end of season record 17-14 or 18-13, again around 55%. That probably is not even close enough for NIT consideration. Rinse and repeat Spider friends, were in for another 5-6 years at least of the same ole Mooney mediocracy.

I agree with this - and unfortunately, this would have been a good year - given the downward state of the A10, to take advantage and maybe rise to the top of the A10 regular season.

In terms of same ole Mooney. If that is the case - then we are likely looking at next year or the year after as the only real NCAA shot. Next year for sure if Burton returns, but I don't see him doing that. But a lot of that hope relies on Nelson, Roche, Quinn, and Bigelow all improving between now and next season.

 

[SpiderGuy]

We are 10-8, which means hold on for this, we are at 55%. For anyone who hasn't slept under a rock for the past 18 years, this probably comes us not a surprise at all. If I'm going to play this out, 13 games left, we probably go either 7-6 or maybe 8-5. Which would make our end of season record 17-14 or 18-13, again around 55%. That probably is not even close enough for NIT consideration. Rinse and repeat Spider friends, were in for another 5-6 years at least of the same ole Mooney mediocracy.

Hey - the 55 pct is our comfort zone, and we stay true to that. Good enough for enablers and acceptance of long term status quo.

 

[97spiderfan]

I agree with this - and unfortunately, this would have been a good year - given the downward state of the A10, to take advantage and maybe rise to the top of the A10 regular season.

In terms of same ole Mooney. If that is the case - then we are likely looking at next year or the year after as the only real NCAA shot. Next year for sure if Burton returns, but I don't see him doing that. But a lot of that hope relies on Nelson, Roche, Quinn, and Bigelow all improving between now and next season.

Correct. I don't see Burton staying, but who knows. But if he leaves, not sure how we look at next season being better than this year. We don't another Burton level player in the pipeline that is for sure.

 

[spider23]

I agree with this - and unfortunately, this would have been a good year - given the downward state of the A10, to take advantage and maybe rise to the top of the A10 regular season.

In terms of same ole Mooney. If that is the case - then we are likely looking at next year or the year after as the only real NCAA shot. Next year for sure if Burton returns, but I don't see him doing that. But a lot of that hope relies on Nelson, Roche, Quinn, and Bigelow all improving between now and next season.

I think our NCAA window is 2024-25 and 2025-26 as long as Nelson progresses as expected, and I think he will. IN 2024-25 you will have a Nelson as a junior, and Trevor Smith as a sophomore. Will have a senior Randolph and Roche. Will need Noyes and Walz to progress. And hopefully we have filled in with some new transfers and big men that can contribute. I was thinking Dji was a sophomore in eligibility? Anyway, that is my expectation now. I think we should have the talent this year to contest for an NCAA spot, but it is not happening, so it is hard to see how that happens with Burton gone next year. Will need a huge step forward from Quinn or Walz, and would need Noyes to play like the potential NBA player.

 

[SpiderTrap]

Agree - we don't have anyone to replace Burton, but if Moneyball type fashion - would we get enough improvement from Nelson, Roche, Quinn, and Bigelow next season to make up for Burton. I would hope so, but even that just gets us back to even with this year - which like you said - is not shaping up to be an NCAA year. BUT - if Burton were to stay and those guys continue to develop and improve, its a different story.

In terms of improvement - I feel confident Nelson will progress the most. My biggest concern is Roche and Quinn. We need them to take steps forward. If we are sitting here next year saying we hope Quinn is more aggressive or why can't Roche get more shots - then the future is not looking good.

 

[KE Spider]

Roche can't score from the bench. Play the man more.

 

[VT4700]

I was going to post this on the Bonnies thread, but thought it would be better to get off that one as I think everyone needs to calm down and take a deep breathe. We lost to the Bonnies on their home floor - its not the end of the world. In terms of some fans being sick of this type of result and seeing it for years and years, unfortunately - when Mooney made the dance last year and the school gave him the extension through 2026-2027, you have to reset your clock. You can't keep bringing up the 10 years of no NCAA appearances - that has been forgotten and replaced by the recent memory of the dance and A10 title. And unfortunately - based on the last few years, expect Mooney to be around for better or worse until at least the 25-26 season as the administration has shown, they will not fire him and pay him not to coach. But on to this season. Here is my breakdown of what we have so far.

Burton - first team all A10 player, and potential A10 POY of candidate with NBA hopes. He is the focal point of our team, will play 40 minutes most nights, and we need him to score 20+ a night to win most nights. It is asking a lot, but its the only formula that seems to be working. He has been cold the last 2 games, but I expect him to bounce back quickly.

Grace - Been up and down, and I think the injury hurt his progression. But he is still one of our best shooters on the team and we need a big man who can shoot in this offense to stretch the floor. In order for this team to make a run, we need Grace to play like MFG all the time and help Burton offensively and get 10+ points a night while playing 30 minutes.

Quinn - I expected Quinn to start slow, and thought it would take him some time to acclimate to our offense and competition, but he is more of a disappearing act right now than anything. And I think even Mooney is voicing that frustration a little bit as well. If we have a 7 footer in this offense who can't shoot, but is a decent passer and rebounder, then we need him to score around the rim. Getting 6-7 points, and 3 assists and 4 rebounds is fine when Burton scores 20+ and someone like Nelson or Grace or Roche scores as well, but we need Quinn to be a threat and I feel right now he is just a solid role player who other teams will play 1 v 1 down low because they know he won't take more than 5 shots on a given night. We need aggressive Quinn, especially when shots are not falling from the rest of the team.

Goose - He brings good defense and a lot of intangibles. But I for one, thought he would take a step forward on offense and give us something. On a team like last year, Goose is the perfect complimentary piece. But on a team like this year, we need him to do more, and I am just not sure he is capable of that.

Nelson - up and down. But this was my expectation. I expected him to play like a frosh. Some games he will be great, others he will be just okay, and some you will be left scratching your head. Point is - I think Nelson will be good down the road, the question is down the road next year or will be in the A10 tourney this year.

Bigelow - At times I wonder if he should start instead of Quinn. One game he looks great and the next, he lays an egg. I like Bigelow, I like his intensity, and I think he is a capable shooter. I think he should drive to the hoop more and sometimes settles for outside shots, and for that reason - I think he continues off the bench. If he looks like he is having a hot hand - you ride him. If not, you sit him back down. Probably our best rebounder as well, which will be needed against some A10 teams.

Roche - Shooter, shooter, shooter. He is a very good shooter off the bench. He plays his role perfectly. I think the issue is we are hoping he will go 4-6 every night and give us 12-15 points off the bench and that is just not realistic. Going forward - the question will be, can Roche fit into a bigger role (probably next year) or will he always be that shooter off the bench. I think if Nelson progresses, that will help Roche as he needs a guy who can drive and kick to him and that would be Nelson going forward.

Randolph - provides some spark and energy when needed off the bench. I just wonder how much he plays as the season progresses because I am expecting more Nelson and more Roche and that limits time for Randolph. Have not seen enough of him in long stretches, but I like what I see so far. HIs time might be next year when Goose leaves.

Bailey/Crabtree - I don't see anytime left for them, and I think the injury really hurt Bailey. We may need them, especially Bailey if another injury occurs to anyone above, but otherwise - I don't think their time is now.

Right now - our formula to win. Get 20+ from Burton, and then hope someone else like Roche, Nelson, and Grace provide enough support to keep the game close for UR to pull out a victory. This means we really need to limit turnovers, and shoot well most nights as our margin for error is very slim.

This was a great post. I agree with pretty much all of it. I was reading what you said about each player, and said "yep" after each one.

 

[97spiderfan]

Roche can't score from the bench. Play the man more.

Right and at some point, you have to say we are a .500 ball club this year, Goose is a senior, we are going to need Roche to be a big piece next year, so maybe we make an adjustment in playing time.

And I like Goose, he brings a lot of value to the team, but we need guys on the floor who can make shots right now and put pressure on the defense. That would be helpful in the long term development of Nelson as well., if he has a backcourt mate who can allow him to fully run our offense as designed.

 

[97spiderfan]

I think our NCAA window is 2024-25 and 2025-26 as long as Nelson progresses as expected, and I think he will. IN 2024-25 you will have a Nelson as a junior, and Trevor Smith as a sophomore. Will have a senior Randolph and Roche. Will need Noyes and Walz to progress. And hopefully we have filled in with some new transfers and big men that can contribute. I was thinking Dji was a sophomore in eligibility? Anyway, that is my expectation now. I think we should have the talent this year to contest for an NCAA spot, but it is not happening, so it is hard to see how that happens with Burton gone next year. Will need a huge step forward from Quinn or Walz, and would need Noyes to play like the potential NBA player.

Agreed. If we lose Burton, we are not an NCAA team next year. Period end of story, unless Mooney goes out and gets a true stud in the portal.

 

[Eight Legger]

Agreed. If we lose Burton, we are not an NCAA team next year. Period end of story, unless Mooney goes out and gets a true stud in the portal.

I recommend looking at Morgan State and Hartford to find the kind of true studs that will vault us immediately into the top 25.

 

[urmite]

Agreed. If we lose Burton, we are not an NCAA team next year. Period end of story, unless Mooney goes out and gets a true stud in the portal.

I still think Smith replaces Goose, Tanner replaces Crab.
We are waiting for replacement for Grace & Burton...

 

[spiderman]

I think we should have the talent this year to contest for an NCAA spot, but it is not happening ...

curious why you think we have the talent this year.

I think our bench is better this year. Burton is marginally better. Goose is the same guy.
but we're substantially less talented at the starting 5, 4 and 1 spots. I'm always hopeful. I thought we'd be better defensively and we are. I hoped we'd win. but I can't say I expected this team to dance. we finished 6th in the A10 last year and we have less talent now.

I'm still bullish. we're going to get substantially better at the PG spot with Nelson and hopefully Bailey developing, and Smith coming in. Roche will be forced into a bigger role ... which should have happened this year. same with Bigelow. Quinn will get a little better. we'll just have to see who's ready to be the 3 ... probably out of Randolph, Noyes or Tanner.

I kind of think Noyes goes from never playing to a pretty big contributor.

 

[VT4700]

I agree with this - and unfortunately, this would have been a good year - given the downward state of the A10, to take advantage and maybe rise to the top of the A10 regular season.

In terms of same ole Mooney. If that is the case - then we are likely looking at next year or the year after as the only real NCAA shot. Next year for sure if Burton returns, but I don't see him doing that. But a lot of that hope relies on Nelson, Roche, Quinn, and Bigelow all improving between now and next season.

I think next year might depend on who we add in the portal this spring. We look good at G with Nelson, Smith, Randolph, and Roche, so the rotation there will be similar except for Smith replacing Goose. But, we really only have Noyes replacing Burton and Grace at forward right now. Tanner might get some time if he can score, and Walz could get some time, but that is just in place of Quinn, so we will be a lot better if we can add a scoring forward. That will give us a pretty solid 8 man rotation again.

 

[SpiderDad75]

I think our NCAA window is 2024-25 and 2025-26 as long as Nelson progresses as expected, and I think he will. IN 2024-25 you will have a Nelson as a junior, and Trevor Smith as a sophomore. Will have a senior Randolph and Roche. Will need Noyes and Walz to progress. And hopefully we have filled in with some new transfers and big men that can contribute. I was thinking Dji was a sophomore in eligibility? Anyway, that is my expectation now. I think we should have the talent this year to contest for an NCAA spot, but it is not happening, so it is hard to see how that happens with Burton gone next year. Will need a huge step forward from Quinn or Walz, and would need Noyes to play like the potential NBA player.

"I was thinking Dji was a sophomore in eligibility?"
He is and is the last one of guys that came in during covid so he still has that covid year.

 

[Eight Legger]

curious why you think we have the talent this year.

I think our bench is better this year. Burton is marginally better. Goose is the same guy.
but we're substantially less talented at the starting 5, 4 and 1 spots. I'm always hopeful. I thought we'd be better defensively and we are. I hoped we'd win. but I can't say I expected this team to dance. we finished 6th in the A10 last year and we have less talent now.

I'm still bullish. we're going to get substantially better at the PG spot with Nelson and hopefully Bailey developing, and Smith coming in. Roche will be forced into a bigger role ... which should have happened this year. same with Bigelow. Quinn will get a little better. we'll just have to see who's ready to be the 3 ... probably out of Randolph, Noyes or Tanner.

I kind of think Noyes goes from never playing to a pretty big contributor.

This is why Mooney will always be our coach, because there are enough people conditioned to think this way. "We had a bunch of veteran guys who scored a lot of points for 5-6 years, so it's impossible for any new guys to be that good or better."

We did lose some very good players, that's true. But they were not worldbeaters, as evidenced by their full regular season bodies of work the past two years. They finished 8th and 6th. Do we have the talent needed to do better than that this year? Of course we do. But if the assumption is, "Oh well, there's definitely no way we can do any better," then we won't.

Sports teams often do better when their best players leave. The Nats won the World Series the year after Bryce Harper left. The Braves won the World Series in the year when Ronald Acuna was hurt for the season. Basketball is a team game -- if you get the right mix of players with good skills that complement each other, sometimes the sum is greater than the parts. Honestly, at several points in the past few seasons it seemed that the parts were greater than the sum.

 

[VT4700]

I kind of think Noyes goes from never playing to a pretty big contributor.

I do too. We are going to need him. I think we have our 8 guys now, and there just isn't playing time for him, especially with Tyler playing his 40 every night, but just because he isn't playing now doesn't mean he doesn't have talent and won't be a huge factor next year for us.

 

[VT4700]

Sports teams often do better when their best players leave. The Nats won the World Series the year after Bryce Harper left. The Braves won the World Series in the year when Ronald Acuna was hurt for the season.

LOL. Yes, because college basketball is so similar to MLB, especially when you look at the non power teams, right? Good thing we can make mid season trades and spend millions and millions on other players when our good players leave, right?

 

[spider23]

"I was thinking Dji was a sophomore in eligibility?"
He is and is the last one of guys that came in during covid so he still has that covid year.

Thanks, that was my thinking too. Just looking at website it says junior. Good to hear! Hoping he can string together two injury free years , think that will allow him to shine.

 

[spider23]

curious why you think we have the talent this year.

Well, for one, Quinn looks really good in flashes. He has two years D1 experience. Based on the pre-season build up, was expecting more consistency. Bigelow looks like a stud to me, but again with the consistency. Roche is performing up to expectations, but it seems the consensus (might I add EVEN 4700 has been on record saying he would like to get him more shots (or minutes I forget?)) is that he is not quite being utilized correctly. Burton is back, as one of top 2 or 3 talents in the league. Randolph out performing my expectations. Goose is an all A10 level defender, who - I agree with GK here, is very athletic, and can get to the hoop, and shoots a high % from the corner 3 - but coaches can't seem to get him engaged on offense. This is where you see a JB or DT type could unlock the hell out of the potential of this team. I don't think it is the talent, I was on record (and look it up - many many seasons I said we had serious holes on the roster) with saying we did have the talent to be in the running for a bid, it was up to the coach. I just see us performing game by game, either A) as expected vs the comp or B) under performing vs the comp.

 

[spider23]

I'll give you 1, vs Drake - exceeded expectations.
2 awful, pitiful performances - William and Mary and Clemson. Lot of expected to below expectation performances.

Like what Boyden has brought on the defensive end, seems to have a strong voice.

It seems the big failure this year is on the offensive end. Not sure Gipe or Thomas have the voice or know how to help fix things.

I think Nelson is very good and the future. I do thing Mooney is just throwing him out there to get seasoning on the fly, letting him sink or swim, which worked with KA in the past, and will help in future years. I do think he could have helped him more this year in games where he was struggling and turned it over to Goose or Burton more.

 

[SpiderDad75]

Thanks, that was my thinking too. Just looking at website it says junior. Good to hear! Hoping he can string together two injury free years , think that will allow him to shine.

That makes two of us...Regardless of what the old married couple up here says...I think he has some value left this season if he can only be allowed to play past his mistakes as some others are.

 

[VT4700]

Roche is performing up to expectations, but it seems the consensus (might I add EVEN 4700 has been on record saying he would like to get him more shots (or minutes I forget?)) is that he is not quite being utilized correctly.

When on the court, I think he is being used just fine. He is getting some looks when out there. Look at how similar his numbers are per 40 minutes at The Citadel and with us:

The Citadel: 3.9-9.9 from 3 per 40 minutes.
Richmond: 4.1-9.5 from 3 per 40 minutes.

But, I do think he needs more minutes. I think just looking at our 2 IC losses and seeing Goose with 0 points in 36 minutes against Mason and 0 points in 32 minutes against St Bona, while Roche only got 13 and 19 minutes, screams give Roche more minutes. It would be different if we had nice leads in those games while Goose is doing his thing defensively, but we scored 58 against Mason and 63 against St Bona. No question Roche needed more minutes those games.

 

[spiderman]

This is why Mooney will always be our coach, because there are enough people conditioned to think this way.

no, it's not my fault we aren't winning or my fault Mooney is still our coach. lol

you can't compare losing 1 guy on a baseball team to losing 60% of a starting basketball lineup.

teams certainly can do better despite losing good players. we replaced as well as could be expected, but the 3 new starters aren't playing anywhere near the level of the 3 we lost.

if you thought Golden to Quinn was a wash ... or Cayo for Grace was a wash ... or Gilyard for this year's Nelson was a wash ... I don't know what to tell you. use your eyeballs.

and for the record ... I'm not giving Mooney a pass. it's his job to build a team and develop players. it starts and ends with him. but I certainly didn't go into the season thinking "we have the talent to get an at-large so if we don't do it must be bad coaching". I've said from the start that Goose was a perfect fit in last year's lineup and a bad fit this year. we need scoring at the 2 becasue we lost a ton of scoring at other spots. and I'd also be starting Bigelow. so I don't blindly agree with everything the coach does.

 

[VT4700]

That makes two of us...Regardless of what the old married couple up here says...I think he has some value left this season if he can only be allowed to play past his mistakes as some others are.

But, you are asking for at best a 9th guy in the rotation to be able to play past his mistakes. This is what I don't get. Many teams have 7 or 8 man rotations. Their 9th guys play none. When guys that far back in the rotation do play, they don't get a lot of minutes anyway, even if they get out there and play great. Randolph came in against Davidson and hit a 3 and scored another bucket his first 3 or 4 minutes. He scored 5 points and made an impact right away for us, but only played 12 total minutes that game. So, how could you expect a 9th guy in the rotation to still be out there for good minutes a few mistakes later? This makes no sense.

 

[spider23]

That makes two of us...Regardless of what the old married couple up here says...I think he has some value left this season if he can only be allowed to play past his mistakes as some others are.

I would like to see him get some opportunity this season too. At this point, we are playing to be in top performance / optimized line ups for the A10 tourney.
I am actually less worried about Mooney pulling Dji for turnovers, and would rather see him get extended time when he is playing well and making an impact. Like Syracuse game. Obviously we cam back in that one without him, but he made some key plays early to get us on the board and in the right direction.

Will be interested to see if Mooney gives him so opportunities coming up.

 

[VT4700]

Back to Roche, for the next 7 games, play him 20+ minutes every game, giving Goose less minutes, and see how things work out. Then for the final 6 games heading into the A-10 tourney, we should have a better idea if we are better with Roche getting more minutes. If we struggle more defensively and the offense isn't good enough to make up for it, fine, go back to giving Goose 30+ minutes and try to win that way. But, maybe our defense is still okay and we find some much needed offense with more Roche minutes. Give Roche 20+ minutes a game and let's find out. He played 24, 23, 26, 23, and 20 minutes the final 5 OOC games, but only 13, 18, 16, 15, and 19 minutes in the 5 IC games. Maybe it's because Mooney knows the A-10 guys better and knows which scorers to shut down, but let's get back to the 20+ for Roche. I will add that I can understand it is not a slam dunk easy decision here. Defense matters, and every coach loves having a guy who can shut a scorer down. It's hard to get away from that sometime, but I think the time is right to change a little here.

 

[urmite]

I'll give you 1, vs Drake - exceeded expectations.
2 awful, pitiful performances - William and Mary and Clemson. Lot of expected to below expectation performances.

Like what Boyden has brought on the defensive end, seems to have a strong voice.

It seems the big failure this year is on the offensive end. Not sure Gipe or Thomas have the voice or know how to help fix things.

I think Nelson is very good and the future. I do thing Mooney is just throwing him out there to get seasoning on the fly, letting him sink or swim, which worked with KA in the past, and will help in future years. I do think he could have helped him more this year in games where he was struggling and turned it over to Goose or Burton more.

I like this site with ATS.

Richmond Spiders Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

Looks like Wichita and W&M were expected wins, Temple, Drake, And Davidson were expected losses.

 

[MDspider8]

I think almost all of us can say we didn't expect a NCAA bid from an at-large berth this season. I think the OOC results were prettyunderwhelming, but I always had my sights on the chance of winning the A10, so my current outlook is heavily weighed on conference play.

Going into conference play, my prediction was an 11-7 conference record, with losses @GMU, @Bona, vs. VCU, @UMass, @Dayton, @VCU, and home vs. GMU. That would probably put us somewhere around the 5/6/7 seed heading into the tournament. Given we lost so much from last year and are relying on multiple brand new faces for production, I'd be pretty happy to finish out 4 games above .500 in conference.

It will be absolutely critical that we take advantage of the 5 game stretch vs. Bonnies, vs. Fordham, @GW, vs. Loyola, @La Salle to start off Feb. If we can keep our head above water through the end of January and show that we can take care of business against the lower level teams in the conference, I'll feel pretty good about things going into the conference tournament.

As others above said, we clearly have the talent to play at a high level, but lack the ability to consistently perform on a game to game basis. I'm hoping that with additional time in conference we can continue to improve and show to be a contender in the conference tournament come March, but keeping expectations low for now. Still a long way to go...

 

[urmite]

We will see how we handle the 2nd half of A10 after Dayton...

 

[VT4700]

I think almost all of us can say we didn't expect a NCAA bid from an at-large berth this season. I think the OOC results were prettyunderwhelming, but I always had my sights on the chance of winning the A10, so my current outlook is heavily weighed on conference play.

Going into conference play, my prediction was an 11-7 conference record, with losses @GMU, @Bona, vs. VCU, @UMass, @Dayton, @VCU, and home vs. GMU. That would probably put us somewhere around the 5/6/7 seed heading into the tournament. Given we lost so much from last year and are relying on multiple brand new faces for production, I'd be pretty happy to finish out 4 games above .500 in conference.

It will be absolutely critical that we take advantage of the 5 game stretch vs. Bonnies, vs. Fordham, @GW, vs. Loyola, @La Salle to start off Feb. If we can keep our head above water through the end of January and show that we can take care of business against the lower level teams in the conference, I'll feel pretty good about things going into the conference tournament.

As others above said, we clearly have the talent to play at a high level, but lack the ability to consistently perform on a game to game basis. I'm hoping that with additional time in conference we can continue to improve and show to be a contender in the conference tournament come March, but keeping expectations low for now. Still a long way to go...

Looking at your 11-7 prediction, I don't see us getting swept by VCU and Mason. Let's get 2 of those and turn your 11-7 into 13-5, or maybe 12-6 if we have another loss elsewhere. This should give us an important top 4 finish heading into what will be a winnable A-10 tourney.

 

[SpiderTrap]

I think almost all of us can say we didn't expect a NCAA bid from an at-large berth this season. I think the OOC results were prettyunderwhelming, but I always had my sights on the chance of winning the A10, so my current outlook is heavily weighed on conference play.

Going into conference play, my prediction was an 11-7 conference record, with losses @GMU, @Bona, vs. VCU, @UMass, @Dayton, @VCU, and home vs. GMU. That would probably put us somewhere around the 5/6/7 seed heading into the tournament. Given we lost so much from last year and are relying on multiple brand new faces for production, I'd be pretty happy to finish out 4 games above .500 in conference.

It will be absolutely critical that we take advantage of the 5 game stretch vs. Bonnies, vs. Fordham, @GW, vs. Loyola, @La Salle to start off Feb. If we can keep our head above water through the end of January and show that we can take care of business against the lower level teams in the conference, I'll feel pretty good about things going into the conference tournament.

As others above said, we clearly have the talent to play at a high level, but lack the ability to consistently perform on a game to game basis. I'm hoping that with additional time in conference we can continue to improve and show to be a contender in the conference tournament come March, but keeping expectations low for now. Still a long way to go...

I didn't expect NCAA bid this year - I thought we had too many new pieces. I did think we should have a solid NIT team, which I think is still possible, but will take a top tier finish (12+ wins) in the A10 and probably semifinals or better in A10 tourney. These are still possible, and given the new pieces, maybe they hit a hot streak similar to last year.

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

Just want to point out for those clamoring for more Bigs. Bigelow is shooting .353/.267 on his 2s/3s splits. He's a great rebounder, a versatile defender and a very good FT shooter, but those are awful FG shooting numbers. At the moment any shot he takes is a net negative unless he gets fouled. He's getting 8.7 ppg on 7.6 shots per game. For efficiency perspective, on exactly half those shots per game - 3.8 - Goose averages 4.6 points per game (extends to half a point better than Bigs if he took same number of shots.) It's not just Goose who needs to be better on offense. Goose doesn't get to the line, while Bigelow should really try to live there. He should not shoot any 3s.

Agree on Roche, Randolph and even Dji - cut Goose a few minutes each game. Cut Nelson's minutes in those games if he's not playing well and disperse them to others for opportunity.

As for the state of the team, 10--8. Expected. Feels a lot like the Ced/Brothers/Garrett/Martel team following the S16. Discussing the holes in various guys' games, inconsistency issues, chemistry fits and what was left in the cupboard following a big departed class of longtime starters. The balance of multiple star players throughout each of the classes has long been a shortcoming.

 

[spiderman]

Just want to point out for those clamoring for more Bigs. Bigelow is shooting .353/.267 on his 2s/3s splits.

he's shooting 46% on 2's, which is not great but ok.
3's have certainly been a problem.

 

[urmite]

he's shooting 46% on 2's, which is not great but ok.
3's have certainly been a problem.

.353 is 48 of 136 - 2+3 combined. Just like ESPN box score during the game, lol.

 

[spiderman]

.353 is 48 of 136 - 2+3 combined. Just like ESPN box score during the game, lol.

understood.

brooklyn said ".353/.267 on his 2s/3s splits". I'm correcting that. he's .353 overall.
he's .459/.267 on his 2s/3s splits.
his eFG% is .426

 

[VT4700]

I don't mind some Bigs 3 attempts, but he needs to find his spots and be more selective. A 3 late in the clock or an open 3 is fine, and we need him to take those and make enough of them, but he shoots too many early in the clock that look like tough 3s, either guarded or not good looks. With him only at 26.7% from 3, this number is probably well below 20% when guarded closely. Just be a little more patient out there.