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Bubble Watch

I think Joe is unfortunately spot on with his comments. He's not the only one who sees it either. Almost no site or analyst has us even on the bubble currently. That doesn't mean its not been a great season but the conference just isn't a "strong" conference as in other years. Here's an interesting note from The Athletic regarding the A10 from a "bracket busters" standpoint, we all knew our team is not great at rebounding, but this puts it in stark perspective:

Atlantic 10 is a jumble

UMass Minutemen (Underdog Rating: 15.7)

St. Bonaventure Bonnies (UR: 14.9)

Saint Joseph’s Hawks (UR: 12.7)

Dayton has played well enough this season that the Flyers have probably nailed down a No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They’re 23-6, with one loss to Houston and five to other opponents by a combined 21 points. It’s Richmond, however, that leads the A-10 by a game over the Flyers and Loyola Chicago, and stands to earn the conference’s automatic bid. Problem is, Richmond ranks 362nd in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing only 17.1 percent of its own missed shots. That’s 362nd out of 362 D-I programs.

Look, there are plenty of ways to compete without emphasizing the offensive boards, and Chris Mooney has won more games at Richmond than any other coach. But there’s just no record of a longshot with anything like those numbers pulling off an upset in the NCAA Tournament. To overcome a superior opponent’s shooting, an underdog needs to build possessions — and take some chances doing so. If you walk the ball up the court deliberately, protect it exceptionally well, pass accurately inside and hit threes that open up, you can beat VMI and Siena and Queens University of Charlotte and William & Mary and Buffalo and Lafayette. And, well, that’s most of Richmond’s non-conference wins. But that style won’t work against Auburn or Marquette. Slingshot estimates Richmond would underperform against an NCAA Tournament favorite by a whopping 8.7 points per 100 possessions and assigns the Spiders an Underdog Rating of just 4.7.

Loyola (4.1) fares even worse: The Ramblers also forgo offensive rebounding (ranking 291st) and turn the ball over on 18.8 percent of possessions, a rate far worse than Richmond (ranking 289th). They’re a top-100 team in shooting from inside and outside but barely a top-200 offense overall.

So give us literally almost anyone else from the A-10. UMass (15.7), now coached by Frank Martin, hits the offensive glass and forces turnovers. St. Bonaventure (14.9) keeps things slow and has three players shooting 39 percent or better from behind the arc. Saint Joseph’s (12.7) ranks 11th in the nation in 3-point shots as a percentage of field-goal attempts. The main building on the campus at Fordham (5.4) is named Keating Hall. Slingshot says there are nine teams in the A-10 whose basic power rating is between 7 and 12 points per 100 possessions better than average, which should make for an entertaining tournament. Hopefully one of them will rescue the conference from squandering its second bid on an experiment in risk aversion.


That being said I'm just going to enjoy the season and hope for an A10 championship!
this article made no sense. Spider fan all I’ve learned from this is there are some really dumb people out there who get to write this stuff. His points don’t make any sense, almost seems like an intentional hit piece. This isn’t a serious person
 
this article made no sense. Spider fan all I’ve learned from this is there are some really dumb people out there who get to write this stuff. His points don’t make any sense, almost seems like an intentional hit piece. This isn’t a serious person
Agree. I think joe and the rest know who the committee wants in the tourney, and professes that regardless of the actual outcome of the games. I
 
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It feels like this stuff is a self-fulfilling prophecy. One or two people say the A10 is a one-bid league if Dayton wins it and then the rest of mankind regurgitates that endlessly as if it's the gospel. On the game last night, the announcers said the same thing, as if they had any idea.

"It's been a great league, but Richmond and Loyola have to cut down the nets or else they're not going to the tournament."

BS! Stop saying that crap when you have no freaking idea. If anything, those are the guys who ought to be changing the narrative! They've called all these games all year! They know it's a good league -- say so! Just total garbage the way everyone falls in line.
 
the NET isn't subjective. it's just math. doesn't mean the committe won't look past the NET, but I don't blame a talking head for not including Richmond in a bracket when our net is 70. the NET says we didn't do well enough ooc.
 
I stand by the Drake example. Played zero P6 teams this season. Two good wins on the year, one loss to a losing team. Didn't win their league, lost 4 games in it. Lost 5 games to middling teams overall.

I guess if we had played Nevada instead of UNLV we'd have a NET in the 40s too?
 
the NET isn't subjective. it's just math. doesn't mean the committe won't look past the NET, but I don't blame a talking head for not including Richmond in a bracket when our net is 70. the NET says we didn't do well enough ooc.
I get the sentiment, but I'm sorry, but until earlier this week STB was ranked ahead of us in the NET which makes it hard to take that thing serious. 6th/7th place St. Bonaventure. I don't care what math they use, there is no justification for a ranking system like this to be considered the main metric of selecting teams. Im convinced the NET was created by a bunch of nerds who don't understand basketball, so created math formulas to show how smart they are when discussing the topic.

TBH we have some bad losses, graned DLO was out for many of them so I hope that counts for something. I can live with not being considered on the bubble and would rather just win the whole damn thing.

What blows my mind is how Dayton is being treated. Until last night, had 0 marquee A10 wins, looked pedestrian compared to what they were hyped up in the non conference. And only have one win against a team that will likely be in the NCAA. Yet they are a certifiable lock because these nerds gesture at these numbers. Its obvious the national pundits don't watch A10 hoops. Im not saying they aren't deserving or even a bad team, but to suggest they're class above the A10 when the results show differently is absurd.

10 years ago this team is likely on the good side of the bubble with a resume like this. Now can't even get in the bubble discussion.
 
the NET isn't subjective. it's just math. doesn't mean the committe won't look past the NET, but I don't blame a talking head for not including Richmond in a bracket when our net is 70. the NET says we didn't do well enough ooc.
I’m not sure I agree. Wouldn’t surprise me if each team is assigned an initial score before a game is even played. It’s the way the P6 always gets assigned low scores and when they play each other as the season progresses their NET always will end up better.
 
the NET isn't subjective. it's just math. doesn't mean the committe won't look past the NET, but I don't blame a talking head for not including Richmond in a bracket when our net is 70. the NET says we didn't do well enough ooc.
Of course the actual math isn't subjective, but the subjectivity is built into the formula. In order to create it, people had to decide what was important and what wasn't. The thing about math is that it takes humans to actually do it and humans are, by nature, subjective. That's why the NET should only be one source of information about what makes a team tourney-worthy. I am not overly optimistic that the committee will include us if we don't win the A-10 tournament, but they might, especially since it seems there is a lot of recognition that something isn't quite right with the NET.
 
the NET isn't subjective. it's just math. doesn't mean the committe won't look past the NET, but I don't blame a talking head for not including Richmond in a bracket when our net is 70. the NET says we didn't do well enough ooc.
They should be saying "Here's why the NET can't and shouldn't be the only factor -- because this team is good." That's my point. If the NET is the only factor, then just take the highest rated 30 teams or whatever who don't get an at-large bid. But we all know that's not actually how they do it, which brand that NET IS not the only factor. So they need to stop saying "Well, their NET is 69, so they're toast."
 
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Committee loves to have a non P6 as first team out to prop themselves up. Happened to us about 8-9 years ago out of nowhere, could see them doing it again.
 
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Committee loves to have a non P6 as first team out to prop themselves up. Happened to us about 8-9 years ago out of nowhere, could see them doing it again.
Right the loss probably moved us up to just on the wrong side of the bubble. Someone will leak to Lunardi that we were in until the bad loss at GMU.
 
Already seen a report Maryland would not accept a NIT bid. Too many expected to miss from portaling. who knows but I mentioned b4 I'd be surprised if no NIT opt outs. Now MD stinks, but they are 9th in NET in B10. If b10 gets 7 ncaa bids they would be in line. If they get less than 7, MD would not get invited. But auto bid if things break a certain way in B10 with bids.

Based on b10 performance in last few NCAAs they should get no more than 5 imo. BS to help their bubble teams out again. That was another thing in our favor if we had beaten the Goo Moos. The committee was less likely to reward the B10 this year. They still might, but less likely than normal. No bid stealers out there so far, bubble keeps getting weaker. Look at some of those last in/first out teams. We'd have stacked up fine minus the NET number.
 
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That is a big question mark for the NIT I bet. Could see teams accepting NIT bids, and then players dropping into the portal. Could be a lot of last minute changes in the NIT I bet.

Again, at this point zero interest in considering the NIT option. Hopefully a moot point.
Good point. I wonder if the NIT is going to suffer the same fate of most of the bowl games now, with multitude of players opting out to get their names in the portal quicker.
 
Good point. I wonder if the NIT is going to suffer the same fate of most of the bowl games now, with multitude of players opting out to get their names in the portal quicker.

Yes and that's why we have those new NIT rules. I've been saying since announced, it's not to increase p6 teams, it's to save the p6 teams and incentivize from opting out & get the p6 to advance.
 
Good point. I wonder if the NIT is going to suffer the same fate of most of the bowl games now, with multitude of players opting out to get their names in the portal quicker.
does entering the portal mean you can't play for your current team any more? or that a coach wouldn't play that kid? not sure how coaches handle that.
 
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Again, I've given up on trying to understand portal rules. It's not supposed to open until 7 days after Selection Sunday. There are exceptions for coaching changes and the window doesn't apply to grad transfers, but I'm seeing tweets about guys in the portal for whom those don't apply.

Anyway, there's no policy reason why you couldn't play if you're in the portal. You're still on your current team and not even required to transfer. But if would be up to the coach how they feel about that.
 
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Oklahoma w loss today goes to 8-11 overall in b12. They are 4-12 in quad 1s. That's worse than Mooney's winning percentage vs. VCU.

Yet b4 today doofus Lunardi and Palm for that matter had as 9 seeds. honestly they should be out. They'll get in I'm sure b/c the standard for power teams is weak. But had we beaten the Goo Moos those are the type of teams we could have been competing against.
 
Oklahoma w loss today goes to 8-11 overall in b12. They are 4-12 in quad 1s. That's worse than Mooney's winning percentage vs. VCU.

Yet b4 today doofus Lunardi and Palm for that matter had as 9 seeds. honestly they should be out. They'll get in I'm sure b/c the standard for power teams is weak. But had we beaten the Goo Moos those are the type of teams we could have been competing against.
Goo moo blowout was a disaster. It validated all who said UR werent deserving. Win that one and make finals and committee would have had a very tough decision.
 
Cincinnati just obliterated a depleted Kansas.

And BC destroyed Clemson while NC State popped Syracuse’s faint bubble hopes.
 
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Cincinnati just obliterated a depleted Kansas.

And BC destroyed Clemson while NC State popped Syracuse’s faint bubble hopes.
BC playing really well. They will give Hoos all they want. Post stays out of foul trouble, watch out.
 
I look forward to seeing Nova beat Marquette (sans Kolek) today, salting their spot in the tourney... one day after basically pooping the bed against DEPAWFUL and proving that they have no business being anywhere near the tournament.
 
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I don't know what the committee will or won't do, but if we are going to be kept out of the tournament because we lost one road game as part of a 15-3 regular season in the eighth-ranked league in the nation, that's on the committee and not us.
 
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