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Stacking up against the rest of the A10

sdspider

sdspider

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Nov 19, 2003
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Our numbers so far in A10 play have been stellar. If we can keep it up, no reason to think a team with those numbers can't finish in the top 3 in the standings. We just need the confidence and will to finish out on the road. If there was a confidence meter, I'd think it be pretty high at the moment.

In conference-only stats, the Spiders rank third in scoring offense (71.4), fifth in scoring defense (62.0), second in scoring margin (+9.4), second in FG pct (48.6), first in FT pct (80.1), second in 3PT FG pct (39.1), third in assists (15.4), first in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.6), second in turnover margin (+2.25) and second in threes made (8.3).
 
It is amazing that some on this board think we are an average team. Top 4 would be a huge accomplishment for a team that can't play defense, rebound or shoot!
This post was edited on 2/5 1:38 PM by Spiderfan1980
 
We can play defense (and have), we choose not to rebound (which I hope is changing) Shooting is still a roller coaster. (too many players who aren't scoring threats)
 
I like stats more than anyone, but I get a little disappointed when I see those - because if I read those stats to you and didn't tell what place that team was in - you would probably think - maybe first...if not - top 3. And here we sit at 5-3 in a 3 way tie for 5th place with Davidson (split) and UMASS (play them on the road later in the year).

Not to be all doom and gloom, but its hard to get too excited when we only have 1 road win and its Feb. 4th. Hopefully we can build off that momemtum from the VCU win, but we will have to wait and see.

Every year - I think the team should have 3 goals.

1) Win the A10 (regular season or tourney)
2) Get an NCAA berth
3) Beat VCU

In reality - it looks tough for us to win the A10 regular season. And getting an NCAA berth is nice to think about, but we would need to go undefeated between now and the next VCU game for us to jump on that bubble. Beat VCU - we did that. Lets just hope its not the highlight of our season.
 
I love that we have been playing very well of late. However I'm baffled by how our strength of schedule ranking seems to be stacking up. It seemed so horrendous before the season even began. But now, depending on where you look, our SOS rank seems to be top 30 or so. I'm very happy about it, but I never thought it would be the case this year. If, and that's a big if, we can string together a bunch of wins I would think we would be sitting much prettier than I though possible 4 weeks ago. That is the key. Just keep winning.
 
Originally posted by SpiderTrap:
I like stats more than anyone, but I get a little disappointed when I see those - because if I read those stats to you and didn't tell what place that team was in - you would probably think - maybe first...if not - top 3. And here we sit at 5-3 in a 3 way tie for 5th place with Davidson (split) and UMASS (play them on the road later in the year).

Not to be all doom and gloom, but its hard to get too excited when we only have 1 road win and its Feb. 4th. Hopefully we can build off that momemtum from the VCU win, but we will have to wait and see.

Every year - I think the team should have 3 goals.

1) Win the A10 (regular season or tourney)
2) Get an NCAA berth
3) Beat VCU

In reality - it looks tough for us to win the A10 regular season. And getting an NCAA berth is nice to think about, but we would need to go undefeated between now and the next VCU game for us to jump on that bubble. Beat VCU - we did that. Lets just hope its not the highlight of our season.
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The reason we are 5-3 is because our A10 schedule has been ridiculously tough so far. We have played 5 games against the other top 4 teams, 4 of which were on the road. Nobody else in the A10 has had as tough of a beginning stretch as we have. We also have played 1 less game than most of the conference. If you look at the teams ahead of us you have URI (who has played 6 games against the bottom 7 teams), Dayton (6 games against the bottom 7 teams) and VCU (5 games against the bottom 7). We have only played 3 games against the bottom 7. When we start playing bottom feeders and URI and Dayton start playing tough opponents on the road we have a good chance of overtaking them.


This post was edited on 2/4 4:09 PM by fan2011
 
I am glad that the fate of the team is not in the hands of many on this board. If that was the case, we should have packed our uniforms a long time ago. I agree with mcspider, it seems as if our schedule has not been as bad as many thought before and during the early part of our schedule. I believe that the best is yet to come for this team. Faith in our team has to start somewhere (belief in what we cannot see). Surprise is on the way!!!!! GO SPIDERS
 
Totally agree fan2011. I would much rather be in our position at this point in time than some of the other top teams.
 
We've played the first, second, third, and fourth place teams as our first 4 conference road games. All of our remaining conference road games come against teams ranked below us in the conference standing currently. Granted we have to figure out a way to win those games on the road, but the schedule is set up nicely for us to make a run. We just have to do it now.
 
Fan 2011 great points I agree. If we can continue to play at the high level we have already demonstrated against the top of league, only good things can come of it with the schedule we have in front of us. The only caveat is we no room for error, an off game against a bottom dweller could do us in.
 
and it will probably happen at some point, and the sky will fall again.
 
Originally posted by SpiderTrap:

In reality - it looks tough for us to win the A10 regular season. And getting an NCAA berth is nice to think about, but we would need to go undefeated between now and the next VCU game for us to jump on that bubble.
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We all want to think positive but this is the reality of the situation. The early bracket experts show 2 or 3 A10 teams getting in. Below is one opinion on UR. I don't believe undefeated is necessary but up to RPI appears so. The history of the road results have to do a 180 turn and it starts tomorrow. And a slip up against RI or GW at home and you fall behind them in the pecking order with the conference tiebreaker.

Richmond Spiders (12-9)[/B]: Key wins over Davidson and VCU have put Kendall Anthony and company on the fringe of the tournament discussion, but they can't afford to lose another game during the regular season
 
Davidson loses at home to St. Bonaventure. One of our good wins is looking a little worse. Davidson without Gibbs is not a top tier A10 team. Hopefully VCU doesn't fall apart, we need that win to look good.
 
Dayton is the team to beat for the regular season title, IMO. Sucks that we didn't get that win. VCU struggled on the road against a terrible mason team tonight and Graham got hurt again. I really don't see them holding things together well enough to win the league. GW is not the same team it was last year either. Something is missing there.

Davidson is starting to get exposed a bit and is probably looking at a 4-6th place finish. Rhody has almost lost twice to Fordham and has gotten fat on bad teams so far. I think that's a good team, but nowhere near what its conference record indicates. We should win that game at home.

Predicting us to run the table is an assumption no one here would make, but I will say that if we keep playing this way, anything is possible. But I would expect us to lose probably two more road games at least. I think we win the rest of our home games though. Do that and we are probably #2 or #3 in the regular season.
 
If we can go 7-3 the rest of the way, we'd go into Brooklyn as a top 4 seed and a dangerous team capable of winning up there.

That's my goal the rest of the way. I think expecting anything more than that is probably setting yourself up for disappointment.

Fordham and SLU are the only gimme games. The rest will be a fight.
 
Originally posted by MolivaManiac:
If we can go 7-3 the rest of the way, we'd go into Brooklyn as a top 4 seed and a dangerous team capable of winning up there.

That's my goal the rest of the way. I think expecting anything more than that is probably setting yourself up for disappointment.

Fordham and SLU are the only gimme games. The rest will be a fight.
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I am hoping for a 12-6 conference record and a top 4 finish as well, but I have a sneaking suspicion that we will do better than that.
 
Watched the Mason-VCU game. VCU is not the same team without Weber (granted Graham sat most of the game as well). Only reason they won that game is because Mason is big pile of steaming crap. They cannot fire Hewitt fast enough.
 
I don't know about you all but I have confidence in our home games and 87% chance in winning our remaining away games.
 
Was proud of our effort tonight, regardless of the opponent. We were down 9 on the road and Graham gets hurt again. We could have hung our heads, but a bunch of underclassmen stepped up and got us a 12 point win.

5-0 on the road in the conference now. Youngsters are getting some valuable experience too, finished the game with one junior and the rest freshmen and sophomores on the floor......
 
what is Graham's injury, he seems to be dealing with this for awhile now.
 
Smart said Graham has a nagging high ankle sprain and said it didn't bother him in practice or playing.
 
He played 12 minutes last night, all in the first half. I'd be surprised if he plays in Olean this weekend.
 
Does no one else watch most of the A-10 games? I saw him go down in their URI game.

High ankle sprains can be lingering and nagging. Perfectly fine until you put weight on the foot at an angle, then shooting pain.
 
We have more important things to worry about than the health of players on teams we are better than.
 
One thing I like about the A10 scheduling and it's smart for ratings......

Spread the games Tuesday thru Friday to allow fans of others team watch as opposed to everyone playing on one night of the week.
 
Our NCAA chances are not dead - we just need to almost win out the rest of the regular season.

For us to be serious contenders for an NCAA berth - I think we need to run the table until the next VCU game.

That would mean winning the next 6 games and put us on an 8 game winning streak. THEN - I think even if we would lose to VCU at home, we would still have a shot.

Our SOS numbers have faired well because some teams from our OOC are doing well - ODU has been a surprise, W&M is doing well, Norther Iowa is a top 15 team - and we have played the tougher teams in the A10. It will drop some with the back end of our schedule, but we have lucked out this year with our OOC schedule. Which makes it even more hindsight because you look back and think - if we could have just won the ODU game, Wake, and NC State - we would be a lot closer to bubble status than we are now.

We can get onto the bubble, but right now we need to beat LaSalle.
 
At this point, we need good wins more, IMO. I don't think we can afford to lose any of our home games, and I don't think that we will. If we win all of our road games except for UMass, we are in the discussion. Not saying this is likely, but I think it's a path.
 
I like the A10 scheduling too. Many times I like to see other teams in the league for my personal scouting purposes.
 
One great win and all the sudden everything is cured around here and people are delusional again. Yes we are playing better in the second half of the season and have a shot to finish in the top 4 of the conference IF we can carry forward our ability to win a road game. However, IF that happens, anyone who thinks that we can still get an at large bid needs to share what they are drinking.

If we win out in the regular season(highly unlikely) and then make it to the A10 finals(slightly more likely but not close to a sure thing) we would end with a record of 24-10 which is very respectable. But since when would an A10 team, or any team for that matter, with that record and only two top 50 wins(both against VCU) and 3 BAD sub-100 losses make the tournament? In 2010-11 it is still debatable if we would have been left out of the tournament if we did not win the A10 Championship. That year we were 27-7 and we had only one bad loss(Georgia Tech) and I believe two top 50 wins(Purdue and VCU). When they look at our resume that says Quality Wins - VCU and Bad Losses - James Madison, Wake Forest, Northeastern we have no shot.

Again, I don't believe that one win changes everything but if we figure out that we can win close games away from home and continue to play they way we are now we do have a shot at making the A10 tournament finals and then anything is possible. But an at large bid is out of the question.
 
Originally posted by Eight Legger:
We have more important things to worry about than the health of players on teams we are better than.
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laugh.r191677.gif
 
I think if we win out and lose in the A-10 finals, we are in the tournament pretty easily as an at large. I think the chances of that actually happening are very minute.
 
URWilk110 while agree it is highly unlikely we win out or come close to it, I believe our RPI may end up in the 20 to low 30s if that were the case. We would also be on a major winning streak and finishing the season strong. The fact Lunardi has us in the next four out already says if the stars were to align, we have a shot.
 
As you can probably tell from my previous post, I am shocked by Lunardi's projection and don't really agree with it. But here's to hoping he is right and we can make the VCU win more worthwhile than just the satisfaction of beating them.
 
Originally posted by Eight Legger:
We have more important things to worry about than the health of players on teams we are better than.
Click to expand...
I don't know I like finding ways for teams above us in the standings to lose when they aren't playing us. I find it very satisfying.
 
Originally posted by SpiderTrap:
Our NCAA chances are not dead - we just need to almost win out the rest of the regular season.

For us to be serious contenders for an NCAA berth - I think we need to run the table until the next VCU game.

That would mean winning the next 6 games and put us on an 8 game winning streak. THEN - I think even if we would lose to VCU at home, we would still have a shot.

Our SOS numbers have faired well because some teams from our OOC are doing well - ODU has been a surprise, W&M is doing well, Norther Iowa is a top 15 team - and we have played the tougher teams in the A10. It will drop some with the back end of our schedule, but we have lucked out this year with our OOC schedule. Which makes it even more hindsight because you look back and think - if we could have just won the ODU game, Wake, and NC State - we would be a lot closer to bubble status than we are now.

We can get onto the bubble, but right now we need to beat LaSalle.
Click to expand...
I'm hoping to run the table until the next VCU game (at Costco).
 
Originally posted by 97spiderfan:

I think if we win out and lose in the A-10 finals, we are in the tournament pretty easily as an at large. I think the chances of that actually happening are very minute.
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Our RPI projects at #25 if we win out.

In the more likely scenario that i presented yesterday... suppose we go 7-3 the rest of the way, we go to Brooklyn with an RPI around #51. If we win 2 games and then lose to somebody good like RPI or Dayton in the final, we're probably sitting around #40 with a record of 21-13. It's probably not good enough to get us into the tourney (because of our poor OOC), but definitely good enough to have us squarely on the Bubble on Selection Sunday.

Beat Lasalle and this gets a lot more interesting.
 
I'm as optimistic as anyone but I'm certainly not projecting we win out. that's crazy talk.
this hasn't been an NCAA type year. our best hope is still winning the A10 tournament.
I love how we're playing right now, though. team has really got it going. fun to watch.
 
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