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And of course UConn that year was an insane darkhorse national champion. An 8 seed, I think? They got hot for 6 games and shot really well.
 
fan2011 said:
Offensive rebounds are necessary but not sufficient for second chance points. You get points when you put the ball in the hoop, not when you pull down the rebound. Good defensive teams can prevent second chance points even while giving up offensive rebounds. This is what we did in the past, and what the national championship teams tended to do (have very good eFG% defense). This year we have horrible eFG% defense, so every offensive rebound pulled down by our opponent's is very likely to become second chance points. Please read my post above, I believe I explained it pretty well there.
Click to expand...

Honestly I don't get it but lots of stuff flies over my head. My post simply stated that not giving up an offensive rebound meant the defense wouldn't have to defend against another opportunity. Team can have the best defense in the world but the less shots to defend, the better.
 
SouthJerseySpiderFan said:
Let's put a team ranking next to each team for that particular year along with offensive rebounding ranking.

DR-OR
Duke 125-32
Kentucky 113-21
Richmond 271-329
UNC 121-21
Duke 149-7
UConn 244-209
Louisville 242-16
UConn 236-7

Funny how ranking wise UR is last in both stats. Sometimes comparing team stats in different years doesn't tell the whole story. UConn in 2014 is the only team close to UR. Some quality OR teams there making up for the DR woes. Something the Spiders can't hang their hat on.
Click to expand...

Good point, although I would argue there is essentially no difference between being ranked 236, 242, 244 or 271. We could use raw numbers to compare teams (which I did originally), their positional ranks (which you did), or something like a z-score which is probably the best way assuming that the distribution of defensive rebounding percentage is close to gaussian. I suspect that with a z-score we would be identical to the 236, 242 and 246 ranked teams.

Also, I wasn't making any sort of argument for rebounding on the offensive end, just that defensive rebounding is not as important as other aspects of defense. Not sure how offensive rebounding effects defense, though I suppose it may (Mooney's strategy forgoes offensive rebounding to prevent transition baskets, but my research shows that there is little correlation between offensive rebounding and transition basket rate). Anyway, it is easy to see that none of the teams listed were good at defensive rebounding, none were even in the top 100. 3 of the last 7 national champions were in the 200-300 range. It is obvious that defensive rebounding was not important to these teams' success which refutes the spirit of the hypothesis originally implied by Marley (good defensive rebounding is essential for winning national championships).
 
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Eight Legger said:
Stats are stats, but I think some people have trouble taking them seriously when you compare our lack of rebounding favorably with numerous national champions. Obviously we are far worse in many aspects of the game than even an average team, so I think you lose people by suggesting that stats show we are great in many ways. The bottom line is that we are not a good team, no matter what the stats suggest.
Click to expand...

X2

Let me start this by saying this is not aimed at the statman. Instead it is a general statement. I've worked with stats and done lots of analysis for many years. Someone can do regressions, chi square distributions, correlations, and any of a myriad of analytical techniques. I don't care what stats or metrics one uses, at some point in time what our eyes see & common sense kicks in.

I realize that coaches these days rely on more analytic data to get an edge, but no amount of stats will convince me in any category more than what I've seen from watching almost all of our games this year. We have deficiencies in "the system", and it's just not in one category. Our record in conference and overall speaks to what we visualize. Let's hope that the deficiencies get fixed moving forward...with or without the use of stats.
 
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fan2011 said:
It is obvious that defensive rebounding was not important to these teams success.
Click to expand...

I agree it might not be the crucial stat to them winning a championship but like SpiderGuy mentioned with UR's system deficiency, it becomes an important aspect for Spider success especially against the major conference teams.
 
SpiderGuy said:
X2

Let me start this by saying this is not aimed at the statman. Instead it is a general statement. I've worked with stats and done lots of analysis for many years. Someone can do regressions, chi square distributions, correlations, and any of a myriad of analytical techniques. I don't care what stats or metrics one uses, at some point in time what our eyes see & common sense kicks in.

I realize that coaches these days rely on more analytic data to get an edge, but no amount of stats will convince me in any category more than what I've seen from watching almost all of our games this year. We have deficiencies in "the system", and it's just not in one category. Our record in conference and overall speaks to what we visualize. Let's hope that the deficiencies get fixed moving forward...with or without the use of stats.
Click to expand...

No one is arguing that the system is working, I have been vocal since the first game of the season about deficiencies in our defense. Determining what to do to fix the defense is a very important question. The prevailing sentiment here is that we need to improve rebounding, and while I agree that more rebounds are better than less rebounds when all else remains constant, there are more glaring issues that need to be addressed and would have a greater impact on our defensive performance.
 
SpiderGuy said:
X2

Let me start this by saying this is not aimed at the statman. Instead it is a general statement. I've worked with stats and done lots of analysis for many years. Someone can do regressions, chi square distributions, correlations, and any of a myriad of analytical techniques. I don't care what stats or metrics one uses, at some point in time what our eyes see & common sense kicks in.

I realize that coaches these days rely on more analytic data to get an edge, but no amount of stats will convince me in any category more than what I've seen from watching almost all of our games this year. We have deficiencies in "the system", and it's just not in one category. Our record in conference and overall speaks to what we visualize. Let's hope that the deficiencies get fixed moving forward...with or without the use of stats.
Click to expand...
All these stats remind me of Billy Ball (A's). So does coaches apply this level of stat analysis to high school recruits? What I saw yesterday was a team emotionally empty with lot of bent heads. I was glad I could not watch the second half. There are no stats for mental state and attitude.
 
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Hey guys !! look up "blunted affect" and see if you see what I see.
Coaches have tremendous pressure on them all the time.
They are trying their best .
 
CarolinaSpider said:
All these stats remind me of Billy Ball (A's). So does coaches apply this level of stat analysis to high school recruits? What I saw yesterday was a team emotionally empty with lot of bent heads. I was glad I could not watch the second half. There are no stats for mental state and attitude.
Click to expand...
X2

You reinforce what I previously tried to say. I'm burned out on stats. I'm even more burned out on reading posts of excuses, seeing the same patterns repeat foreverrrrrrrrrrrrr, watching us fall to mediocrity, and defer to next year too many times.
 
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Lots of ways to skin a cat. Lots of ways to improve on defense. If we only allowed 5 or 6 offensive rebounds a game, i bet we'd win more. If we played better 3 point defense, i bet we'd win more. If we boxed out better, i bet we'd win more. We don't need to do all of those things to see imorovement, just one.
 
SpiderGuy said:
X2

You reinforce what I previously tried to say. I'm burned out on stats. I'm even more burned out on reading posts of excuses, seeing the same patterns repeat foreverrrrrrrrrrrrr, watching us fall to mediocrity, and defer to next year too many times.
Click to expand...

Stats certainly don't capture everything, but when you have a league of 351 teams and are trying to determine which teams do what well and how that helps them win or lose it gets extremely difficult when you don't quantify anything. Our team has severe problems on defense, how do we know what needs to be changed to make our team better? How do we know which changes will have the biggest effect? We can guess and make choices based on what feels right, or we can look at the hundreds of other teams and see what they did and how it worked out and then guess. I like to quantify things and have that inform my guesses. I am not advocating for using arcane metrics or ad hoc algorithms, I am trying to make informed conclusions/guesses based on very simple and straightforward stats.
 
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Eight Legger said:
Lots of ways to skin a cat. Lots of ways to improve on defense. If we only allowed 5 or 6 offensive rebounds a game, i bet we'd win more. If we played better 3 point defense, i bet we'd win more. If we boxed out better, i bet we'd win more. We don't need to do all of those things to see imorovement, just one.
Click to expand...

I agree, but some things may be more effective than others.
 
Upon further review, instead of hiring someone like Kevin Keatts of UNCW, I think we should just hire him. Two years, two league titles in the regular season. Former Louisville assistant. The dude is a winner.
 
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Eight Legger said:
Upon further review, instead of hiring someone like Kevin Keatts of UNCW, I think we should just hire him. Two years, two league titles in the regular season. Former Louisville assistant. The dude is a winner.
Click to expand...

DO you want to hire another UNCW coach? We didn't have very good success with the last one.
 
fan2011 said:
Marley, thanks for having me do this research. It is actually pretty interesting. On defense we have rebounded better this year than 5 of the last 7 D1 national champions did in their championship years. No national champion in the last 7 years has been a top 100 team in terms of defensive rebounding, which frankly surprised me. Many of these teams were in the 200-300 range in terms of defensive rebounding. This really drives home the point that there are much more important aspects to defense.

Code: 
Team    Defensive Rebounding %
Duke (2015)    69.8
Kentucky (2012)    69.2
Richmond (2016)    68.3
UNC (2009)    68.3
Duke (2010)    67.9
UConn (2014)    67.2
Louisville (2013)    66.7
UConn (2011)    66.5
Click to expand...
I wonder what the stats are for opponents second chance points? If you give up an offensive rebound it doesn't hurt you too badly if the opponents don't score. Plus you have to a comparable teams, you can build up a stat with alot of weak OOC teams.
 
32counter said:
He's been finishing behind Tommy Amaker at Harvard who recently hit a wall after his players were caught cheating on a take-home exam.

http://nypost.com/2012/09/12/two-harvard-basketball-players-implicated-in-scandal/
Click to expand...

32, not to derail this to Yale Basketball but the article in your first link included this

Yale won without its captain Jack Montague, who left the team last month. The school has declined to detail why he left. Montague's family didn't return messages left by The Associated Press, but his father told the New Haven Register on Friday that his son was expelled.

"It's not something we talk about," Yale coach James Jones said. "We coach basketball and play basketball, deal with guys that are in the room and do the best we can."

Are you saying his father is wrong, the article is wrong or K is wrong that he has been expelled?
 
I-M-UR said:
I wonder what the stats are for opponents second chance points? If you give up an offensive rebound it doesn't hurt you too badly if the opponents don't score.
Click to expand...

Did you read what I posted. That is what I have been saying the whole time.
 
Watch your back, Mooney.

#hireNancy

56dd739a7aeb1.image.jpg
 
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ThePhysician said:
Hey guys !! look up "blunted affect" and see if you see what I see.
Coaches have tremendous pressure on them all the time.
They are trying their best .
Click to expand...
If Ulla was the coach He would be trying his best too but He likely wouldnt win too many games. This is about performance, not effort. I would try really hard if they put me in as the running back for the Rams, but I dont think Id get to the line of scrimmage. Effort is not the measure of performance for a coach, wins are.
 
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fatherspider said:
If Ulla was the coach He would be trying his best too but He likely wouldnt win too many games. This is about performance, not effort. I would try really hard if they put me in as the running back for the Rams, but I dont think Id get to the line of scrimmage. Effort is not the measure of performance for a coach, wins are.
Click to expand...
Fatherspider,

Watch out, or you'll get slammed for making a good post.:)
 
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urmite said:
32, not to derail this to Yale Basketball but the article in your first link included this

Yale won without its captain Jack Montague, who left the team last month. The school has declined to detail why he left. Montague's family didn't return messages left by The Associated Press, but his father told the New Haven Register on Friday that his son was expelled.

"It's not something we talk about," Yale coach James Jones said. "We coach basketball and play basketball, deal with guys that are in the room and do the best we can."

Are you saying his father is wrong, the article is wrong or K is wrong that he has been expelled?
Click to expand...


K's statement-
about the Yale coach


"He just had his team captain expelled from school last week."That's an incorrect statement.

The father is correct.The kid was expelled but not by the coach.He was expelled by the Yale admin.

.
 
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32counter said:
K's statement-
about the Yale coach


"He just had his team captain expelled from school last week."That's an incorrect statement.

The father is correct.The kid was expelled not by the coach.

.
Click to expand...
Ah, I read that as "he just lost his team captain from expulsion" not "he decided to expel his team captain"

Back to the topic at hand...
 
urmite said:
Ah, I read that as "he just lost his team captain from expulsion" not "he decided to expel his team captain"

Back to the topic at hand...
Click to expand...
I meant he "had it happen" not that he had it done. I understand the confusion. My fault.
 
Watching Iona vs Monmouth. I hope Keith Gill is as well. Monmouth is a really fun team to watch.
 
If we make a change, my first choice would be Kevin Keatts of UNCW. Just look at his resume. 2nd choice would be Jerod Haase of UAB, if we could break the bank to hire him. Outside the box candidate would be Pat Miller of Wisconsin-Whitewater, or someone similar.http://uncwsports.com/coaches.aspx?rc=41
http://uncwsports.com/coaches.aspx?rc=41
http://www.uabsports.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/jerod_haase_798006.html
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/stat...-ryan-in-successes-b99443588z1-292143951.html
 
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