Predict our A-10 game results

[Eight Legger]

Predict how you think we will do in conference play, game by game. I’m showing the schedules with each team’s current NET (as of Jan. 2) in parentheses.

L – Jan. 6 vs St. Bonaventure (65) - Always tough, better coached, ahead of us right now
W – Jan. 9 at Loyola Chicago (158) - A game we should get
W – Jan. 13 vs George Mason (76) - Not sure what style Mason is playing this year, but it's a home game
L – Jan. 16 at Duquesne (80) - Dukes are better than us right now
L – Jan. 20 at Davidson (103) - We can't win at Davidson every single year, can we?
W – Jan. 24 vs George Washington (141) - Home game
L – Jan. 27 vs Dayton (25) - Dayton is a better team
W – Jan. 31 at Fordham (223) - This is always a house of horrors, even when we win
L – Feb. 3 at VCU (87) - Shocker
W – Feb. 10 vs. LaSalle (206) - The one team Mooney really owns
W – Feb. 14 vs. UMass (92) - UMass is overrated by NET right now
L – Feb. 17 at George Washington (141) - Road game
W – Feb. 21 at Rhode Island (235) - Rhody will be better by then, so here's hoping I'm "Always Wright" in my result predictions
W – Feb. 24 vs. Davidson (103) - Home game
L – Feb. 28 at St. Louis (221) - Road game in a place we rarely win
W – Mar. 2 vs. VCU (87) - Blind squirrel, nut
L – Mar. 6 vs. St. Joe's (54) - They're not 54 good, but they are good
L – Mar. 9 at George Mason (76) - Road game in a place we rarely win

 

[97spiderfan]

I can't argue with any of that. Think we will win most of our home games and lose almost all of our away games. It is the Mooney way. This team strikes me as a .500ish team in a 1-2 bid A-10 this year.

 

[MDspider8]

• 1/6 vs. St. Bonaventure (#78 Kenpom, #65 NET) - L. Mark Schmidt, more with less.
• 1/9 at Loyola Chicago (#128 Kenpom, #158 NET) - W. Should be able to win, even on the road.
• 1/13 vs. George Mason (#99 Kenpom, #76 NET) - L. I think Mason is going to be a darkhorse team in conference play this year.
• 1/16 at Duquesne (#92 Kenpom, #80 NET) - L. Haven't proven we can beat a team like this on the road yet.
• 1/20 at Davidson (#117 Kenpom, #103 NET) - W. Davidson seems to be Robins Center South.
• 1/24 vs. George Washington (#174 Kenpom, #141 NET) - W. Gotta beat GW at home.
• 1/27 vs. Dayton (#39 Kenpom, #25 NET) - L. Don't think we have an answer to Holmes.
• 1/31 at Fordham (#208 Kenpom, #223 NET) - W. Fordham is underachieving this year and think we should win this one.
• 2/3 at VCU (#88 Kenpom, #87 NET) - L. With Bamisile and Bairstow back, VCU is a much better team.
• 2/10 vs. La Salle (#212 Kenpom, #206 NET) - W. Don't see them as a threat.
• 2/14 vs. Massachusetts (#105 Kenpom, #92 NET) - W. This one has me scared, but I think being a home game saves us.
• 2/17 at George Washington - L. This is my bad loss of the year pick. GW seems to get hot when we play in Foggy Bottom.
• 2/21 at Rhode Island (#225 Kenpom, #235 NET) - W. Rhody is still rebuilding.
• 2/24 vs. Davidson - W. Gambling to say that we sweep Davidson this year, but they're way less talented than years past.
• 2/28 at Saint Louis (#197 Kenpom, #221 NET) - W. SLU is reeling this year and Ford is probably done barring a miracle A-10 run.
• 3/2 vs. VCU - L. We'll keep this close, but they're a better team right now.
• 3/6 vs. Saint Joseph's (#72 Kenpom, #54 NET) - L. Their guards will give us fits.
• 3/9 at George Mason - L. This is a brutal three game stretch to end the year.

Puts us at 9-9 like you have, but I'm a bit more confident in our road record and less confident in our home record due to how the schedule shakes out. Not sure exactly why, but I'll roll with it.

As I look at the schedule more, I didn't realize how much we lucked out with our games this year. We get 6 of the bottom 7 teams in NET on the road and only have to play the top 3 at home. If this team has it in them to overachieve, the schedule is there for it.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

9-9. 1-8 away, 8-1 at home. Not sure which of each we will flip.

 

[fan2011]

10-8

 

[kneepadmckinney]

Actually, I don't think we beat either St. Bonnys or VCU at home. And I think we beat Fordham and Rhody on the road. So 7-2 home, 2-7 away.

 

[gcarter52]

Actually, I don't think we beat either St. Bonnys or VCU at home. And I think we beat Fordham and Rhody on the road. So 7-2 home, 2-7 away.

I hope you eat your words!

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

9-9 would be 17-14 overall which is .548 win %.

While I would love to rehash the rounding up/rounding down convo, I’ll just say that I’m an up guy myself. So 55% on the season and we can all relax that the world is in balance.

 

[Eight Legger]

9-9 would be 17-14 overall which is .548 win %.

While I would love to rehash the rounding up/rounding down convo, I’ll just say that I’m an up guy myself. So 55% on the season and we can all relax that the world is in balance.

Then I guess you would also predict that we go 1-1 in the A-10 tourney? Which also sounds about right. We'll trash LaSalle in the opening round, then lose to Duquesne by 12 in the second round, despite competing hard.

 

[97spiderfan]

Then I guess you would also predict that we go 1-1 in the A-10 tourney? Which also sounds about right. We'll trash LaSalle in the opening round, then lose to Duquesne by 12 in the second round, despite competing hard.

After which, Hardt will announce it was a transitional year, Mooney has his full support and now that we have a fully functional NIL, he looks forward to competing next year.

 

[Spiders4ever]

6-12

 

[SpiderTrap]

• 1/6 vs. St. Bonaventure (#78 Kenpom, #65 NET) - L.
• 1/9 at Loyola Chicago (#128 Kenpom, #158 NET) - L
• 1/13 vs. George Mason (#99 Kenpom, #76 NET) - W
• 1/16 at Duquesne (#92 Kenpom, #80 NET) - W
• 1/20 at Davidson (#117 Kenpom, #103 NET) - L
• 1/24 vs. George Washington (#174 Kenpom, #141 NET) - W.
• 1/27 vs. Dayton (#39 Kenpom, #25 NET) - L
• 1/31 at Fordham (#208 Kenpom, #223 NET) - W
• 2/3 at VCU (#88 Kenpom, #87 NET) - L
• 2/10 vs. La Salle (#212 Kenpom, #206 NET) - W
• 2/14 vs. Massachusetts (#105 Kenpom, #92 NET) - L
• 2/17 at George Washington -W
• 2/21 at Rhode Island (#225 Kenpom, #235 NET) - L
• 2/24 vs. Davidson - W
• 2/28 at Saint Louis (#197 Kenpom, #221 NET) - L
• 3/2 vs. VCU - L
• 3/6 vs. Saint Joseph's (#72 Kenpom, #54 NET) - L
• 3/9 at George Mason - L

Good win - we surprise Mason early and get a win and we beat Davidson at home. Bad loss - lose to URI on the road and St. Louis.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

I hope you eat your words!

Me too!!!!

 

[Not-A-Homer]

9-9, a typical year. Wait, last year overall below .500, a transitional year. This year overall above .500 - tremendous improvement. "We are going in the right direction, just wait until next year!" - Chris Mooney

 

[PalmTreeSpidUR]

I suspect like most years, we will lose one or two that we shouldn't, and then we'll play a game here or there where we have flashes of greatness and we all think "wow, if we could just do this all the time." That usually leads to an unexpected W or two. I just hope at least one of those comes against VCU.

 

[SpiderTrap]

I suspect like most years, we will lose one or two that we shouldn't, and then we'll play a game here or there where we have flashes of greatness and we all think "wow, if we could just do this all the time." That usually leads to an unexpected W or two. I just hope at least one of those comes against VCU.

I agree with this - I have us picked at 7-11, but can easily see us pushing that to 9-9.

Right now in the league - I think VCU is the biggest mystery because they played much of their OOC without their two best players, but now have them back. So will be interesting to see how they fair in the league. I think Dayton and St. Joes have looked good early. Davidson has been good - but has played a great schedule. Looking to see how far GW falls - they are 11-2 but have played no one so far.

But right now - I am looking at VCU, Dayton, St. Joes, and Davidson up top. Mason and Davidson might be battling for that last spot in top 4.

 

[RichmondNative]

6-3 Home
5-4 Road

My prediction based on what I have watched this year. However I have zero confidence in the above and feel like many that 9-9 is a much more likely outcome, an “improvement” over last year, and probably the regular season high water mark.

I was pleasantly surprised up until the last 2 games. I think the talent is there to be a top 4 team in the A10 but the mental side pulls the team down another 4-6 spots. It is a culture problem and it begins with the AD and administration.

Oddly, I feel that because the A10 is so average that the Spiders could surprise on a neutral court in the A10 tournament depending on the matchups. A long shot, but a shot.

Regardless, I will be in the RC for all the home games cheering for victories and at home yelling at the TV for the road games. Go Spiders!

 

[UR80sfan]

Kenpom is pretty accurate in their game prediction. We are favored in 12 of 18 games and we are predicted to win 10 of those games. Unless we have some injuries we most likely will be 10-8 in A10 play.

 

[Eight Legger]

How can we be favored in two games and also expected to lose them?

 

[SFspidur]

Just based on percentages.

If you were a 51/49 favorite in all 18 games, you'd expect to win around 9 or 10 of them, not all 18.

 

[Eight Legger]

Where I come from, the team favored to win a game is also a expected to win it. I've never heard of a team favored by three points called the underdog.

 

[SFspidur]

Like in my example, you can be slightly favored in all of your games, but probability says you're very unlikely to actually win them all.

If you have a 75% chance of winning each game, you're pretty heavily favored and for each one you'd go in expecting to win. But in reality, you're only going trend toward winning only 75% of them as the sample size increases.

The difference between a 1-point favorite and a 1-point dog is almost nothing. It's essentially a toss-up and neither team should "expect" to win.

A 3-point favorite should actually lose around 40% of the time.

Edit: Here's a good one according to KenPom. Houston is 13–0 and KenPom has them favored in all of their remaining games. But with 18 games remaining, probability says they're unlikely to actually win all of them. KenPom says their most likely final record at this point is 28–3 and they only have a 1.8% chance of finishing the regular season undefeated.

To put it in Ken's words, "Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions."

 

[fan2011]

How can we be favored in two games and also expected to lose them?

Lets say you play 3 games with a 60% chance to win each game, so you are favored in every game. There are 8 possible outcomes, each with some probability of occurring:

WWW: 21.6% (.6*.6.*.6)
WWL: 14.4% (.6*.6*.4)
WLW: 14.4% (.6*.4*.6)
LWW: 14.4%
WLL: 9.6%
LWL: 9.6%
LLW: 9.6%
LLL: 6.4%

As you can see, the most likely scenario of these 8 is to win all the games. However, if we look at the most likely overall record, things look a bit different. There are 3 ways to go 2-1, and even though they are all individually less likely than going 3-0, together they are more likely.

3-0: 21.6%
2-1: 43.2% (14.4 + 14.4 + 14.4)
1-2: 28.8% (9.6 + 9.6 + 9.6)
0-3: 6.4%

Here, the most likely overall record is 2-1 even though you are favored in all games. The most likely specific scenario is still to win all 3.

 

[mr.spider]

12-6

Vs SBU - W
@ LoyolaChicago - W
Vs GMU - W
@ Duquesne - W
@ Davidson - L
Vs GWU - W
Vs Dayton - W
@ Fordham - L
@ vcu - W
Vs LaSalle - W
Vs UMass - L
@ GWU - L
@ URI - W
Vs Davidson - W
@ StLouis - L
Vs vcu - W
Vs St Joe's - W
@ GMU - L

 

[Eight Legger]

You guys are getting way too technical for me. I understand the percentages, but 80sFan seemed to be suggesting that the same site has us favored to win two games that it also "expects" us to lose. That's impossible. If it expects us to lose those games, then it must favor the other team to win! You can't be expected to lose a game that you are expected to win.

 

[SFspidur]

We are favored in 12 specific games taken individually but the probabilities suggest we should only be expected to win 10 of our 18.

It’s an aggregate thing over the course of 18 games, not specific games, so KenPom isn’t pointing to two particular games and saying those are two we’re favored in but expected to lose.

It’s not even saying how we get to that 10…it’s not necessarily winning 10 of our 12 favored games. We could easily only win 9 of them but then win one when we are a dog.

And again, when you are favored by only a point or two, the probabilities say you will lose almost as often as you win if you play the game numerous times. So to say you’re “expected” to win in a single trial when you’re a small favorite is a significant stretch.

KenPom predicts us as a 1-point winner over St. Joe’s with a 51% chance of victory. In no way should we “expect” to win that game. It’s a complete toss-up according to his prediction system at the moment.

 

[RichmondNative]

How can we be favored in two games and also expected to lose them?

“It’s why we play the games”.

The second answer is have you ever read this Forum? /s

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

Responders are missing the invisible ink /S of the posts.

I believe it goes back to 80s saying we had a great OOC and were underdogs in all our losses so those losses were expected (even if we were tiny underdogs.)

Thus, underdogs never can win.

 

[UR80sfan]

Responders are missing the invisible ink /S of the posts.

I believe it goes back to 80s saying we had a great OOC and were underdogs in all our losses so those losses were expected (even if we were tiny underdogs.)

Thus, underdogs never can win.

We were underdogs for all of our away games, but we did not lose them all. We beat UNLV. We also beat the spread on many of the away games. This helped us have a NET around a 100, which is not great, but pretty good.

 

[spiderman]

Lets say you play 3 games with a 60% chance to win each game, so you are favored in every game. There are 8 possible outcomes, each with some probability of occurring:

WWW: 21.6% (.6*.6.*.6)
WWL: 14.4% (.6*.6*.4)
WLW: 14.4% (.6*.4*.6)
LWW: 14.4%
WLL: 9.6%
LWL: 9.6%
LLW: 9.6%
LLL: 6.4%

As you can see, the most likely scenario of these 8 is to win all the games. However, if we look at the most likely overall record, things look a bit different. There are 3 ways to go 2-1, and even though they are all individually less likely than going 3-0, together they are more likely.

3-0: 21.6%
2-1: 43.2% (14.4 + 14.4 + 14.4)
1-2: 28.8% (9.6 + 9.6 + 9.6)
0-3: 6.4%

Here, the most likely overall record is 2-1 even though you are favored in all games. The most likely specific scenario is still to win all 3.

 

[ur2K]

We were underdogs for all of our away games, but we did not lose them all. We beat UNLV. We also beat the spread on many of the away games. This helped us have a NET around a 100, which is not great, but pretty good.

UNLV was a neutral site game.

 

[Eight Legger]

We are favored in 12 specific games taken individually but the probabilities suggest we should only be expected to win 10 of our 18.

It’s an aggregate thing over the course of 18 games, not specific games, so KenPom isn’t pointing to two particular games and saying those are two we’re favored in but expected to lose.

It’s not even saying how we get to that 10…it’s not necessarily winning 10 of our 12 favored games. We could easily only win 9 of them but then win one when we are a dog.

And again, when you are favored by only a point or two, the probabilities say you will lose almost as often as you win if you play the game numerous times. So to say you’re “expected” to win in a single trial when you’re a small favorite is a significant stretch.

KenPom predicts us as a 1-point winner over St. Joe’s with a 51% chance of victory. In no way should we “expect” to win that game. It’s a complete toss-up according to his prediction system at the moment.

Sure, I understand all that in the aggregate sense. Maybe that's what 80sFan meant, but reading his post made it seem like he meant the site was saying something like "Richmond is a 5-point favorite against UMass and the expected final score is UMass 80, Richmond 56," which of course would be illogical.

 

[8legs1dream]

L – Jan. 6 vs St. Bonaventure (65) -
W – Jan. 9 at Loyola Chicago (158) -
W – Jan. 13 vs George Mason (76) -
L – Jan. 16 at Duquesne (80) -
L – Jan. 20 at Davidson (103) -
W – Jan. 24 vs George Washington (141) -
L – Jan. 27 vs Dayton (25) -
W – Jan. 31 at Fordham (223) -
L – Feb. 3 at VCU (87) -
W – Feb. 10 vs. LaSalle (206) -
L – Feb. 14 vs. UMass (92) -
W – Feb. 17 at George Washington (141) -
W – Feb. 21 at Rhode Island (235) -
L – Feb. 24 vs. Davidson (103) -
L – Feb. 28 at St. Louis (221) -
L – Mar. 2 vs. VCU (87) -
L – Mar. 6 vs. St. Joe's (54) -
L – Mar. 9 at George Mason (76) -

 

[GKiller]

We were underdogs for all of our away games, but we did not lose them all. We beat UNLV. We also beat the spread on many of the away games. This helped us have a NET around a 100, which is not great, but pretty good.

No we didn't beat the spread in any of our away games.

 

[8legs1dream]

how many people here derive any real measure of satisfaction from a loss where we covered the spread anyway, seriously why even bring it up in the first place 80s?

 

[97spiderfan]

how many people here derive any real measure of satisfaction from a loss where we covered the spread anyway, seriously why even bring it up in the first place 80s?

When you are in the business of excuse making, you can come up with some creative ways to explain away losing. This is a new one though. A+ for creativity. Queally would be proud.

 

[SFspidur]

Sure, I understand all that in the aggregate sense. Maybe that's what 80sFan meant, but reading his post made it seem like he meant the site was saying something like "Richmond is a 5-point favorite against UMass and the expected final score is UMass 80, Richmond 56," which of course would be illogical.

Perhaps 80sfan could have worded it a bit more clearly, but I definitely did not interpret his post like that.

 

[UR80sfan]

how many people here derive any real measure of satisfaction from a loss where we covered the spread anyway, seriously why even bring it up in the first place 80s

I try to post facts, while many people post negative prejudistic opinions. How a team does in a game relative to the spread impacts their Computer raking, which is very important when it comes to post season play.

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

Yet the very basis of your argument/post was easily fact checked and proven wildly inaccurate by noted researcher GKiller.

 

[GKiller]

I try to post facts, while many people post negative prejudistic opinions. How a team does in a game relative to the spread impacts their Computer raking, which is very important when it comes to post season play.

Feel like I get a lot of great facts that come from this board. Many just don't reflect well on Mooney tenure. Of course there are opinions too. If u r freely logging onto a message board finding strong opionions should come as no surprise. Otherwise may have to log off internet altogether. TV and radio too. And probably don't even talk to anyone either.

I like your posts u r entitled to them all even the ones I find nonsensical.

Also are u referring to the betting market, the "spread"? I assume so but it's a little confusing bc u were referring to Kenpom earlier. How a team does relative to the spread has no impact on computer rankings. On other hand the betting market is completely influenced by the computer ranking like Kenpom, they rely on those heavily. In some situations it could be much different, usually due to injuries (Kenpom doesn't factor), or due to $ bet in the market.

Lastly u mentioned we beat the spread on many of the away games. I think u wrote that as a fact and not an opinion. What away games did we beat the spread?