Mooney is not going to be fired at Richmond. The administrators and/or trustees have made that abundantly clear.
Unless the NCAA makes changes soon to the portal & NIL, I feel strongly that these two pieces will ultimately be the undoing of Mooney. Adapting to rapid change is not a Mooney strongpoint, and he is not very good at player combinations or playing time management. The fluidity of largely remaking a team annually, and the struggle with deciding which players are best together (& for how long) makes it likely that multiple mediocre seasons are coming to a team near you. I do not see 5/6-year, senior laden veteran teams on the horizon.
We know that Mooney will decide when enough is enough, but consistent annual struggles (add that some of his best players could be enticed by $$$ to leave the program) could eventually convince the all-time winningest coach at Richmond that the announcers circuit is a pretty good way to stay connected to the sport. Being an announcer would allow him to follow his son's career more closely. I would guess that Mooney could be pretty good at an analyst job.
I can't say how many years it will be before Mooney reaches this conclusion. How many mediocre years will it take to bruise his ego or cause him to worry about damaging his reputation? This year is likely to be two in a row, time will tell how many more. I am willing to bet Ulla's farm that this is how (and when) Mooney's departure occurs.