This is the problem with using numbers as a tell-all. William and Mary and High Point had good years, but they were not top 100 teams. The awful RPI might have said they were because of who they played, but not who they beat.
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OOC Tracker - Lunardi Impact
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This is the problem with using numbers as a tell-all. William and Mary and High Point had good years, but they were not top 100 teams. The awful RPI might have said they were because of who they played, but not who they beat.
What do u mean by safer than my place of employment? And, you have no data to validate anything. If anything, data helps me here. You probably didn't know this, but a tier 4 home win goes from 161 - 353. So, the tournament committee seems to think those are all the same. But, fine, keep thinking 177 is a great schedule and so much better than 300 and something. That is your opinion. I can't prove otherwise, so I won't attack it.
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I may not completely agree with you, but I don't see the point in this discussion of past schedules other than as a benchmark.
If we were 7-6 against Kenpom 177 OOC, and 12-6 vs the A-10 and were first four out in 2014-2015, then
What OOC schedule would we need this season to have a reasonable chance at an At-large, if our results were 9-4 OOC, 12-6 A-10?
How many games we are going to win is a different debate. But I am wondering, either what rank OOC schedule or what results against the Tiers we would need?
(although I'm piggybacking off your post, I'd like to here the serious thoughts of anyone)
I think last year's top A10 teams (other than VCU) provide a useful benchmark. The NCAA has actually started dividing Quad 1 and Quad 2 into tiers just FYI.
Davidson was 8-4, 14-4. Their OOC was #97.
They had 2 upper tier Quad 1 games (top 12), 3 Quad 2, 2 Quad 3 and 4 Quad 4. So 2/3/2/4 OOC.
They went 2-1 in Quad 2.
They had a bad loss at Wake, which was Quad 3 (it was away). They had no Quad 4 losses.
They didn't come close to an at-large.
Dayton was 8-5, 13-5. Their OOC was #98.
4/2/1/6 OOC.
Best win was Quad 2 Butler; Worst Loss also Quad 2 Tulsa. Both neutral site games.
Two of their Quad 1 opponents went to the Final Four (Virginia & Auburn).
They didn't come close to an at-large
So, we need to be significantly better than that.
Davidson was missing Kellan Grady for the Wake, UNC, and Temple losses last yr.
This seems interesting if you compare it to those two in 2014-2015...
Oh and I had started seeing Tier 1 & 1-A.
I welcome this post. I'm sure everyone else is getting as tired as I am of debating past schedules. It's really hard to guess what we will need as far as wins are concerned. But, it would certainly help if most of our out of conference opponents do well, the A-10 does well, and, of course, we do well and get a decent amount of tier 1 and tier 2 wins. 9 - 4 OOC and 13 - 5 IC might be what we need to even have a chance. If we do less than that in one of those, we better do better in the other. But, it will come down to who we beat, and what other at-large teams did.
every year we worry way too much about this to me. we need to win a lot of games. a lot more than we have been.
They’re in a preseason top 25? Where?
I don’t see Bama that strong but hope so that would help.
Yeah I agree with Spidey. The personal attacks aren't necessary even if it is Ulla. Be better than that.
There are two moderators. Best way to sorry us if something needs to be attended is through the report function. There's a ton to read through every day but this will highlight things that need to be cleaned.
understood, but thought pointing it out was a better reminder for everyone than making it disappear.
I've mentioned South Alabama before b/c I was little surprised not on schedule so far since they owe us a game. Now there is precedent for delaying return game a year - see oral roberts. But if you wait until next year the game will be much weaker. Most of their good players are all seniors. No world beater but they are expected to be lot better. May end up with better numbers than teams like Charleston, ODU or Vandy. In the vicinity I'd think. If our boy Joey Bags is trying to game the scheduling this would seem like a game to take now not next year, especially if we're expected to be good again next season & the game becomes a drag on the numbers. But this year it is not. And we still have the NCAA team Bob Black promised to come.
South Alabama can get impact transfers from Cal, Bona and High Point but we can't? I guess they must have all had connections to coaches there, or maybe they all attended the same high schools as other kids on the team...
EL, you are on to something. I was reading a tweet about transfers Loyola Chicago got, Radford, Dayton, you name it. We got two in 14 years when we have had significant holes on the roster. I guess we need to hire some better connected coaches.
Or, 3 of them are guards, and the lone big guy (Ayeni) comes with a lot of baggage as he got suspended for multiple games in 2017-2018, and remained in the doghouse before transferring and sitting out last year. Not sure he would be the right guy for us after just going through that with Buck. We got a lot of grief on here for losing Buck. Wonder if you and others will feel the same toward St. Bona for losing Ayeni.
South Alabama and Cal state northridge are the new additions, correct? As a side note, if we added Bakersfield instead of northridge, we’d be going up against Buckingham’s squad.
You’re right, guess I didn’t pay close attention to the lower level games we already had scheduled
JOC's tweet should have said South Alabama per GKiller. Journalism 101. Tried to warn him a few times. Not sure how long it took Lunardi to figure out playing South Alabama this year instead of next year was a no brainer and had to be done.
South Alabama is a deceptively solid game. But it just falls in line with a number of others, I won't get carried away either. Hampton is a bad game. But we always play a lower level VA team so that game is no surprise either, except perhaps that it wasn't just a buy game. We did play down there during Wainwright game and got some tidewater home cooking. Better watch out. Of course they did smoke us by 20 last year.
These additions do not take us closer to being the toughest or even near the toughest A10 OOC schedule. Doubt we're in top third. At least we have 1 more. Tho not sure how many "neutral" games are out there if comment is even accurate, Florida's orange bowl classic game was filled as an example. The last one needs to be STRONG.
Hey we know it's a NCAA team right? Still haven't got that NCAA team Bob Black explicitly stated. But unfortunately Bob Black may be in on the whole bait & switch strategy pertaining to Richmond basketball via the AD and coach.
South Alabama is a deceptively solid game. But it just falls in line with a number of others, I won't get carried away either. Hampton is a bad game. But we always play a lower level VA team so that game is no surprise either, except perhaps that it wasn't just a buy game. We did play down there during Wainwright game and got some tidewater home cooking. Better watch out. Of course they did smoke us by 20 last year.
These additions do not take us closer to being the toughest or even near the toughest A10 OOC schedule. Doubt we're in top third. At least we have 1 more. Tho not sure how many "neutral" games are out there if comment is even accurate, Florida's orange bowl classic game was filled as an example. The last one needs to be STRONG.
Hey we know it's a NCAA team right? Still haven't got that NCAA team Bob Black explicitly stated. But unfortunately Bob Black may be in on the whole bait & switch strategy pertaining to Richmond basketball via the AD and coach.
GKiller you nailed it. And I would suspect given the timing and knowing the staff reads these boards, that they saw your post and said damn he's right and made some calls. The South Alabama game shall officially be known as the GKiller invitational. Looking forward to raising that banner
I like it...the GKiller invitational. I’m happy to sponsor this. And I will personally pay for the banner to be raised. Hopefully it won’t go in South Alabama’s gym. I will await David Walsh or Allison Vogler call. I have a feeling John Hardt will not be calling. In return my only request is courtside seats for the GKiller Invitational. Or a cut of Lunardi’s fee is also acceptable.
St Francis 11/8
This is almost certainly our home opener. Although you can start earlier this season. For instance VCU hosts St Francis in their home opener 11/5. Good opportunity for coaches to buy a ticket and scout.
Big game! We've been so bad in home openers, & even when we've won it hasn't been pretty.
I just don't see who else we could open with earlier on 11/5, many dates are set and no way it's a P5 Vandy or BC. Perhaps S. Alabama, but I expect we'll start on the 8th.
This is almost certainly our home opener. Although you can start earlier this season. For instance VCU hosts St Francis in their home opener 11/5. Good opportunity for coaches to buy a ticket and scout.
Big game! We've been so bad in home openers, & even when we've won it hasn't been pretty.
I just don't see who else we could open with earlier on 11/5, many dates are set and no way it's a P5 Vandy or BC. Perhaps S. Alabama, but I expect we'll start on the 8th.
Wish we were playing Cal-Bakersfield instead of Northridge. Now that would get fannys in the seats!
All a grain of a salt with Mooney talk for me. Best OOC ever, lol, not a concern. Just like last year 10-3/9-4 was my record that should have been obtained, when start of year comes will have in my mind the OOC final record. Like previous years it's a A10 tourney title or bust season.
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Florida schedule is complete. If they were expecting to get the neutral orange bowl classic vs them that is no longer possible.
Maybe Jacksonville St. then. I bet Lunardi has a connection he can help our crack scheduling staff to get this done.
For geographic clarity, I am requesting that when referenced on this board we refer to this school as "Jacksonville State of Alabama".
Thnx in advance for your consideration.
I am not sure why the program signed up for a home & home with Hampton. Should have been a buy game in my opinion.
I didn't realize this at first. LOL Thoughts in my head if Artis n Pembroke B III were there and D to play.
