Where to, Ododa?

[SpiderK]

I can't agree more with part 3 above. The shot block is very overrated. Other than changing a shot every now and then it is usually just another turnover instead of a rebound or more likely a foul in the college game. These kids want to block the ball up into the stands instead of to a teammate. A defender just going straight up changes the trajectory of a shot, no foul is called and you maintain body control and position for the box out and rebound. Yes, I said BOX OUT. Big Foot has more sightings than a UR box out.

 

[Eight Legger]

I would be curious to know how many blocked shots typically result in a change of possession. If Ododa blocked 3 shots a game and all of them gave us the ball, that's great. If he blocked 3 shots a game and all resulted in wide-open threes for the opponent, not so great. I don't know if there is a way to find this kind of stats.

In general, I would prefer to have a shot-blocker on my team than not have one, but I don't think a lack of one means we are going to be worse on defense. It might, or it might not. Lots of variables at play.

 

[97spiderfan]

ANO had the most defensive rebounds per rebounding opportunity on our team. He was 115th best in the country (top ~2%) in terms of defensive rebounds per defensive rebounding opportunity. If being a shot blocker worsened his ability to get defensive rebounds any significant amount than that means he probably would be close to the best rebounder in the country if he didn't try to block (he was 74th best, top ~1% in terms of blocking).

I have no idea what a "defensive rebounding opportunity" is and have to come realize that there a bunch of completely worthless and meaningless stats that some sites now track.

Perhaps, when a shot blocker goes for a shot block, he then no longer qualifies for a defensive rebounding opportunity because he is not in position, because that is what happens when you miss a shot block.

If ANO was so awesome, top 2% in the country, than you would think he would certainly be among the A-10 leaders in his rebounding, except he isn't and that as a big man with those stats, that we would be a really good rebounding team, but we aren't.

 

[SpiderK]

I would be curious to know how many blocked shots typically result in a change of possession. If Ododa blocked 3 shots a game and all of them gave us the ball, that's great. If he blocked 3 shots a game and all resulted in wide-open threes for the opponent, not so great. I don't know if there is a way to find this kind of stats.

In general, I would prefer to have a shot-blocker on my team than not have one, but I don't think a lack of one means we are going to be worse on defense. It might, or it might not. Lots of variables at play.

Ralph Sampson used to go up and catch shots and hand them to Ricky Stokes. . Don't see that any more!!

 

[fan2011]

I would be curious to know how many blocked shots typically result in a change of possession. If Ododa blocked 3 shots a game and all of them gave us the ball, that's great. If he blocked 3 shots a game and all resulted in wide-open threes for the opponent, not so great. I don't know if there is a way to find this kind of stats.

In general, I would prefer to have a shot-blocker on my team than not have one, but I don't think a lack of one means we are going to be worse on defense. It might, or it might not. Lots of variables at play.

According to hoop-math the offensive team gets the ball back 49% of the time after ANO blocked it this past season.

 

[fan2011]

I have no idea what a "defensive rebounding opportunity" is and have to come realize that there a bunch of completely worthless and meaningless stats that some sites now track.

Perhaps, when a shot blocker goes for a shot block, he then no longer qualifies for a defensive rebounding opportunity because he is not in position, because that is what happens when you miss a shot block.

If ANO was so awesome, top 2% in the country, than you would think he would certainly be among the A-10 leaders in his rebounding, except he isn't and that as a big man with those stats, that we would be a really good rebounding team, but we aren't.

A defensive rebounding opportunity is when you are on the court and an opponent misses a shot, thus there is an opportunity for a defensive rebound. You can't get a rebound if the opponent doesn't miss. There are only so many potential rebounds a player can pull down due to the pace of the game, the opponent's shooting percentage, how many minutes they play, etc. If you look at number of rebounds pulled down compared to number of rebounds it was physically possible to pull down you get a better idea of how good a rebounder someone was than just by looking at raw rebounds.

I don't think the stat is difficult to understand, complicated, worthless or meaningless at all. I think it is much more telling than raw rebounding totals. ANO was 7th in the A10 in terms of defensive rebounding percentage, he was much lower in total defensive rebounds because he played fewer minutes on a slower team than some other A10 players, leading to artificially low raw rebounds.

ANO was 26th in the A10 in raw rebounds per game, but every player in the top 30 played more minutes per game than him. Every player above him played on a faster team (or the same team). Both these things mean ANO will have artificially low rebounding numbers compared to others on the list, even if he actually pulls down more rebounds when given the opportunity to do so.

 

[spiderman]

I don't have accesst all of these advanced stats. 2011's stats make a lot of sense to me though.
and I "know", without stats, that a shotblocker makes a difference on defense. not just by blocking shots, as he may only block 3 per game and we may only get the possession half the time. but people miss more shots when a shot blocker is on the floor. post guys miss inside baskets. guys driving miss drives. it gets in a players head. you're looking for the shot blocker instead of focusing on the basket.

I agree the shot blocker that leaves his man to over-help can lead to easy baskets. I think Garrett did that too much. ANO was a pretty good defender, though, and a very good rim protecting threat.

 

[SpiderK]

ANO should have dominated the A-10 the past two years and didn't. Lazy

 

[Eight Legger]

According to hoop-math the offensive team gets the ball back 49% of the time after ANO blocked it this past season.

Thanks for finding that. So it was basically 50-50, which I think is probably about the average for most blocks. He had 45 blocks, so that means that 23 of those resulted in us getting the possession immediately.

Our opponents shot 42% this year, so in theory, I suppose you could argue that we had a better chance of getting the ball by just letting the opponent shoot than by having Ododa block it. Of course, that assumes we were a good rebounding team, which obviously we were not.

I would also give Ododa credit for changing a fair number of shots, or forcing teams into taking worse shots, which may have partially contributed to the 42% shooting percentage by our opponents.

 

[Stork3]

Eight Legger: I saw Ralph Sampson dominate a game against Clemson at old University Hall years ago. Larry Nance for Clemson hit nothing but the backboard on two outside shots from about 20 feet. Ralph covered so much space that Nance was totally screwed up. When I watched my recording of the game the next day, Al McGuire was telling Jim Thacker and Billy Packer that a stat should be kept for "altered shots." In other words, what difference does it make if Ralph blocks a shot or alters its path through intimidation? Alonzo did alter plenty of shots over the years. Since he is history now, others will step up and block, or alter, shots for us. This should be a really good year.

 

[SpiderTrap]

Lets not go crazy over analyzing this.

ANO probably left for 2 reasons.
1) Playing time - his time dipped from over the past 2 seasons with the addition of Cline from 27 minutes to 23 minutes. And with Cline returning, and not to mention the addition of Wood, and also Friendshuh is eligible this year - he probably saw the same type of minutes if not less in the upcoming season. This might also lead to his relationship Mooney. I have no idea if they did not get along or not, but most of the time - as a player, you can put up with a coach if you know your going to play good minutes on a regular basis. Not that he can expect to play significant more at PITT, as we he will probably come off the bench - which leads me to #2.

2) NCAA tourney - He has not played in an NCAA tourney while at UR and last year came very close. We lose our best player Anthony, and 2 other players transfer out. PITT was an NIT team as well last year - but was very young. So all signs point to them being a possible NCAA team similar to ourselves. Only difference being - they play in the ACC and we play in the A10. So the chances for a bid are much greater out of the ACC and not to mention - if ANO thinks he can play and make a difference, then it might help his future pro career - of course overseas.

Does the loss of ANO hurt our team - of course it does. Its not a huge blow by any means, but it hurts our depth and defense a little bit. Can we overcome it - absolutely, but some players will just have to step up. No different than if ANO had never redshirted and was graduating - I would not call his loss a huge loss, but something that UR would need to account for. I think we got the players to make up for his leaving. ANO was nothing more than a solid role player for us, and there is nothing to point to him having a breakout season this year - so yes, its a loss - but just a minor loss at that.

 

[97spiderfan]

If ANO thinks he has appreciably better odds of going to the NCAA at Pitt than he does here, I think that is some flawed thinking. Not that Pitt is a flawed team, but think we were loaded for bear this year as well and odds of both teams are pretty similar.

I would not call ANO loss "minor" but also don't consider it a "major" loss as well. He had a valuable role on this team, but at the end of the day, he is not one of our stars either.

Good teams and good coaching staff overcome the loss of players like this, so hopefully this does not go on our d'jour of excuses that some of us like to go to if we don't meet expectations. Expectations for this year should continue to be, NCAA bid or bust.

 

[SpiderTrap]

Agree 100% 97 - the loss of ANO should not be added as an excuse, like I said earlier - what if ANO had simply just graduated and was not eligible next year. I am with you - next year would still be considered an NCAA or bust year for this team, with what we have returning and the addition of Wood, not to mention the schedule this season appears on paper to be upgraded from last year.

This is still an NCAA team for UR. I think PITT is very similar. The only difference being - there league, the ACC. Our NCAA chances are probably pretty similar, but with them playing in the ACC, they have more opportunities that we do in the A10 to make the tourney. But I think the chances of both teams making the NCAA next year are very similar, maybe slightly better for PITT, but if so - just barely.

 

[Eight Legger]

I saw that Ododa is the THIRD grad transfer Pitt has signed this year. The others are from Brown and Siena, if I recall correctly. Or a program on par with Siena, at least. Seems like desperation for Dixon, and not that it can't work, but if I were a Pitt fan I don't know that I'd be overly optimistic about things.

 

[URPike]

If he doesn't want to be here then see ya later. I want guys who are driven and welcome the challenge to succeed at a school like Richmond. He often played like he didn't care. I'd rather have him than not but realistically I don't think this changes the course of our season. All of this teams goals are still right in front of them.

 

[Ulla1]

I saw that Ododa is the THIRD grad transfer Pitt has signed this year. The others are from Brown and Siena, if I recall correctly. Or a program on par with Siena, at least. Seems like desperation for Dixon, and not that it can't work, but if I were a Pitt fan I don't know that I'd be overly optimistic about things.

Looking over Pitt's roster, they should be very good. They were a young team a year ago that returns most starters and have now added some strong and tall transfers as well as two talented freshmen. Thus, Pitt is likely an NCAA team and in Alonzo's case, he will get to play against teams like Duke, Louisville, and North Carolina. If he has a stellar game or even play against one of those teams on national TV, it could help him immensely in obtaining a pro contract. Moreover, Zo will likely take courses toward an MBA at Katz Graduate School of Business ranked #23 in the nation.

 

[UR Fan 2]

Ododa will always be a Spider and I wish him success with whatever comes his way. I will not root for him in any game where they are playing an A 10 however.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

I would like for some of you to be right, but, my instincts tell me that the NCAA or bust talk is overly optimistic. Possible, yes, but I think that the odds are less than they were last year. I hesitate to classify this team as loaded for bear.

The 14-15 team did not make the NCAA field, and the 15-16 team has all the same players minus Kendal Anthony and Alonzo Nelson-Ododa. The returnees may improve a bit, but realistically, there is little reason to expect that those players will make the tourney in 15-16 unless they benefit from SIGNIFICANT contributions from the newcomers.

Agree that the A-10 road schedule looks very favorable which could add some wins, but the out of conference schedule appears to be tougher. As we know, schedule cuts both ways.

The newcomers will have to make up for the personnel losses, AND add substantial value in order to propel the team into the tournament. Again, possible, but it is much less likely rather than more likely.

 

[spider fan]

I have no control whatsoever on setting the transfer rules but do get to throw in my "two cents" on a message board. For years and years and years undergraduates played on varsity teams and graduates were not eligible to play. Still makes sense to me. With the rules the way they are redshirting can be pointless unless the player in question agrees he will stay to play 4 years if he receives a redshirt. And yes of course people can say one thing and do another but hopefully the players we recruit would not be of that mindset.

 

[urmite]

UR vs Pitt in the 8/9 NCAA game for 2015-2016?

 

[97spiderfan]

Homer those are good valid points, but the roster has turnover every year and good players coming in and leaving. Why I am optimistic is several reasons that 15-16 will be better than 14-15.

1. This is a senior loaded team. Deion, Trey, and Terry have all been multi-year starters.
2. Terry Allen has finally emerged as a dominant player. I think that happened around mid year last year, where the switch finally happened and he began demanding the ball and asserting himself. We have not had a dominant big man since Harp and Geriot left.
3. And while Terry Allen might be the best player on the team, there is not a huge drop off from our next 2 best players, TJ and SDJ. Both of these guys were largely unknown quantities last year and developed into not just starters but high level starters.

I think that is why we started so slow and finished so strong. The above talent took some time to evolve. Last year we entered the season with one stud player and I think we enter the season with 3 studs this year and 2 other players who have been 3 year starters. Having 3 really good players means that if one player has an off night there is enough talent surrounding them to make up for it. Which makes the chances of home losses to teams like Wake and Northeastern much more unlikely or a road loss to JMU.

I think we have more proven team talent returning than we've had since the KA/Harp team that went to the Sweet 16 and we finished last year as an NCAA caliber team.

Maybe, loaded for bear, was a bit over the top, but I think this is the year Mooney has been building to for 4 years now of non-NCAA and if there ever was a year to make it happen, it would be this year.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

Homer those are good valid points, but the roster has turnover every year and good players coming in and leaving. Why I am optimistic is several reasons that 15-16 will be better than 14-15.

1. This is a senior loaded team. Deion, Trey, and Terry have all been multi-year starters.
2. Terry Allen has finally emerged as a dominant player. I think that happened around mid year last year, where the switch finally happened and he began demanding the ball and asserting himself. We have not had a dominant big man since Harp and Geriot left.
3. And while Terry Allen might be the best player on the team, there is not a huge drop off from our next 2 best players, TJ and SDJ. Both of these guys were largely unknown quantities last year and developed into not just starters but high level starters.

I think that is why we started so slow and finished so strong. The above talent took some time to evolve. Last year we entered the season with one stud player and I think we enter the season with 3 studs this year and 2 other players who have been 3 year starters. Having 3 really good players means that if one player has an off night there is enough talent surrounding them to make up for it. Which makes the chances of home losses to teams like Wake and Northeastern much more unlikely or a road loss to JMU.

I think we have more proven team talent returning than we've had since the KA/Harp team that went to the Sweet 16 and we finished last year as an NCAA caliber team.

Maybe, loaded for bear, was a bit over the top, but I think this is the year Mooney has been building to for 4 years now of non-NCAA and if there ever was a year to make it happen, it would be this year.

I agree that Terry Allen & T.J. Cline are terrific, as good, if not the best 2-man interior combo that UR has had. I look for them to be VERY tough to defend. As to the other points, I hope to be pleasantly surprised if you are right.

 

[97spiderfan]

Homer, your not sold on SDJ? I know some people aren't. I really like him playing what I feel is his more natural position, PG, this year.

 

[spider23]

I am sold on SDJ - I think he will be more consistent and add strength and will continue an upward trajectory. I am worried about a back court compliment that can score the ball. Lot of options, but who will step up? I do think Fore can play some at 1 alongside SDJ, and that should be a very good duo.

 

[SpiderK]

We have been used to having Tough PG's the past few years. SDJ may be a bit more of a "finesse" player, but he can score. He will do just fine. We have no idea what the other guards can do.

 

[SpiderTrap]

In terms of SDJ, I think the biggest question mark next season might be the transition to Cline/Allen as our best offensive players and maybe not SDJ. Ever since KA was at UR, our offense has centered around the guard position - either Anderson, then Lindsay, and then Anthony. But next year - our best option on offense might very well be Cline and Allen. Something we have not seen (our best offensive weapon being a forward) in many years under Mooney, dating back to maybe Harper, who even so played with Anderson.

How will the offense adapt or change to make sure these guys get the ball and their touches in the right position to score. Its not like working with the guards, where you set a ball screen and you let them make a play. Big guys need more help in terms of play design to get the ball in a place they can operate. That will be of interest since I think Cline and Allen will be our main weapons on offense. SDJ will be as well - but I think he would be better off as the 3rd option behind those 2.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

Most NCAA teams have exceptionally good to great guards. My suspicion is that SDJ & whomever else will fall short of that barometer in 15-16.

That is not a knock on SDJ. I think that he is a good guard who will be improved next year. He is a streaky shooter and I like his bold confidence. Question marks include uncertainty regarding his handle, consistency, durability, decision-making, playmaking, and defense.

If he is playing the point, SDJ will need to be the playmaker, a scorer, and "the man" in the backcourt. That is a heavy load for a guy who really has just 1-year experience (he rarely played his freshman year until Lindsey got hurt 6-8 games from the end). Time will tell.

I would rather see SDJ as the shooting guard, but then the point would fall to either Trey Davis or a freshman. If I were coaching, I would pick a freshman who could feed the post and play defense, put him at the point, and make him grow up quick. That would be high risk, but I think it also carries the potential of high reward.

Use Trey Davis to relieve 4 spots (large minutes). I would be very surprised if the risk averse Mooney took this risk.

 

[spiderman]

are you guys forgetting that we run an offense? we don't do a lot of the pick and roll, isolation, feed the post stuff like the NBA with a traditional PG dominating the ball. we move the ball. everyone touches it. we run the offense and an opportunity presents itself. if not, we may feed the post and let TA or TJ operate. but having a traditional PG isn't important.

 

[fan2011]

are you guys forgetting that we run an offense? we don't do a lot of the pick and roll, isolation, feed the post stuff like the NBA with a traditional PG dominating the ball. we move the ball. everyone touches it. we run the offense and an opportunity presents itself. if not, we may feed the post and let TA or TJ operate. but having a traditional PG isn't important.

"The best way to run the offense is my way. If Mooney did what I think he should do we would win a lot more games. I know better than Mooney about our players, opponents, and basketball in general. His constant mismanagement of our team would easily be fixed if I had the reins."

- Most of the people on this board (including me sometimes)

 

[Stork3]

Fan2011 - great post!

 

[Eight Legger]

Ha, some truth to that post. But at the same time, four years without an NCAA berth will cause lots of questions. The time for Mooney to answer them is this coming season by taking us back there, finally.

 

[SpiderK]

Fan 2011, great post and that being said, I believe everyone of us as coach could have equalled our NCAA tournament record the past 4 years.

 

[Eight Legger]

In fairness, I would have gotten ejected from a lot more games than Mooney during those four years.

 

[SpiderK]

Me too, Eight.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

Fan 2011, great post and that being said, I believe everyone of us as coach could have equalled our NCAA tournament record the past 4 years.

There are a lot of coaches (some may be on this board) who would have taken the 14-15 UR team to the NCAA tournament.

 

[SpiderTrap]

are you guys forgetting that we run an offense? we don't do a lot of the pick and roll, isolation, feed the post stuff like the NBA with a traditional PG dominating the ball. we move the ball. everyone touches it. we run the offense and an opportunity presents itself. if not, we may feed the post and let TA or TJ operate. but having a traditional PG isn't important.

We do run an offense Spiderman, but it tends to focus on the guard position the last few years, dating back to Anderson. We rely on the guard position to make plays, usually for himself, since he has been (Anderson, Lindsay, Anthony) our best offensive player for about the last 4-5 years. Your crazy if you think we don't do a lot of pick and roll. We set a high screen for our guards on almost every single half court set. Do we pass the ball around the perimeter - YES. But the majority of the time - it ends with either the guard breaking down his man, or getting a screen to play off of and make a play. This has not been a bad thing, since our best players have been in this position - but next year, that might not be the case. Our best players might be the guys setting the screen - Cline and Wood.

In the traditional PO offense - which was used when Mooney first arrived, there was little to no ball screens. Everything was perimeter passing, cutting, and the occasional post up. But when Anthony began to progress into the player he was - we used his talent - ability to get into the lane, hit pull ups, create, etc. by setting high ball screens for him (usually Geriot or Harper). That then continued with Lindsay and with Anthony. Although last year we did try more to run Anthony off screens off the ball to get him open looks, but was not always successful. Many times - Anthony created on his own, a testament to his ability. I just don't know if we have that player next year in SDJ. He is good. But like homer said - not sure if he reaches that level next season.

 

[97spiderfan]

We relied too much on 1 player at times last year (especially early in the season). We have 3 guys now that are bonafied scorers, two of which SDJ and TJ, are excellent passers. The issue is after those 3 guys, there is a huge drop off on other proven scoring options.

I'm and still concerned that of our Top 5 players, two of them basically can't score. I hate to rely on new/unproven talent, but have to hope that one or two of the combo of Josh Jones, two frosh, Fore, or Marshall Wood can show an ability to consistently put the ball in the basket. We will need that 4th scoring option.

 

[keefusb]

Offensively next year, I would say that TA and TJC would be our first scoring options, in that order. SDJ will be the chief guy responsible for getting them the ball in positions where they can operate.

I'm optimistic that Wood and J Jones will step up and we will have 4 or 5 legitimate scoring threats on the floor at the same time, and that CM is sensitive to having DT and TD on the floor at the same time for large blocks of time. We may see a continuation of the offense/defense substitution pattern next year in an effort to keep those two guys off the floor when we have the ball. Just because ANO is gone doesn't mean we have seen the end of that rotation strategy.

 

[ur2K]

I think Josh can give us 6 points or so a game. He's going to need to be the guy that can get to the rim from the wing, which we haven't had, he showed major improvement when he got time late in the season, hopefully he can make that leap into a more reliable option.

I think SDJ will be just fine, he was really good with his overall offensive game towards the end of last year. It's his team to run now and he doesn't seem to lack confidence.

Defense will be good as this group has played a lot of minutes together. We'll also be gaining a bit of size no matter who plays on D with K0 not logging 36 minutes a game.

 

[97spiderfan]

We may see a continuation of the offense/defense substitution pattern next year in an effort to keep those two guys off the floor when we have the ball. Just because ANO is gone doesn't mean we have seen the end of that rotation strategy.

Keef, good post. My problem with the offense-defense substitution in the last minutes of the game is that you can not control the game, unless you call time out after each possession. Given CM's propensity to call time outs after made offensive buckets, this weighs the playing time to having our defensive line-up on the floor, because unless we foul on defense, there is not a normal game stoppage that would allow for an offensive substitutions.

The problem with Trey and Deion is not only are they bad offensive players, but they are terrible FT's shooters. In my opinion, this really puts us at an offensive disadvantage in end of game situations and contributed heavily in our problems with scoring late in games.

I honestly don't mind the strategy of offense-defense, I just don't think we have the players to execute it effectively