Now that OOC play is virtually done

[I-M-UR]

With only Texas Tech left. Does anyone know the correlation between RPI at the end of OOC play and the end of the season over the years. In other words how much of our bed is made before St. Joe.

 

[sdspider]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Richmond.html


Final Record Expected RPI Probability
26-4 11.8 0.08%
25-5 16.0 0.42%
24-6 20.3 1.50%
23-7 25.1 4.29%
22-8 32.1 9.97%
21-9 40.5 15.78%
20-10 50.8 19.91%
19-11 62.6 18.79%
18-12 76.3 14.55%
17-13 91.8 8.58%
16-14 108.4 4.38%
15-15 125.6 1.14%
14-16 141.9 0.43%
13-17 159.5 0.15%
12-18 166.0 0.02%

 

[I-M-UR]

Hmmm right at 50/50 (assuming 50.8 we're in, a stretch, 62.6 we're out) Team Ranking has us at 46% to make the field of 64 or 32% as an at large. (I'm assuming they are using 2015/16 data the tables don't specify.)

I was wondering more broadly how much a OOC record has on chances of getting in the NCAA.

thanks

 

[97spiderfan]

The fact that we have 3 potential good wins on our resume (and the opportunity for a 4th) really helps diversify our risks of one of those wins not looking as good as it does now.

If we beat Texas Tech, we are now effectively controlling our own destiny entering into conference. As long as we don't crap the bed and lose several bad games in conference, we should be OK. If we lose to Texas Tech, I think we would need to probably go 11-5 in conference to feel comfortable. I think we are a firm bubble team in that situation. And to put that into perspective, we really didn't even work our way onto the bubble until the very end of the season last year. So, win or lose against Texas Tech, we are in much much better situation than we were last year at this time.

 

[urmite]

The nine games from now to the end of January look like an interesting stretch...