Mooney will be back - its all in the money

[SpiderTrap]

Based on the events in the past week with the billboard and response, and lack of response from the AD or anyone in the athletic department - I now think more than ever that Mooney will be back. And the main reason is money. Our basketball program - both on the men's and women's sides are at all time lows right now. Given that UR has never really fired a coach, and based on numerous actions in the past few years - does not like to spend the money necessary it would take to make these big changes. Mooney will be owed 3 years if fired after this year - that is roughly $3 million dollars the school has to pay him not to coach. And if they were to fire Shafer, who I have no idea how much is left on his deal and how much, but lets assume a low amount of 3 years and 300K per year - then maybe he comes in right around 900K. Not to mention - the school needs to pay the new coach, which on the men's side will likely be 700K or more. I can see the billboard raising this price as some coaches may want more money now because of it and the headaches they will say come with it if they start losing games. So just on the men's side - we will need to invest $1.7 million or MORE for the next 3 years.
OR
AD Hardt fires Shafer, makes it appear he is sending a message that Mooney could be next (but really is just taking the cheaper of the two options). And this decision will also buy them time. Because if everyone returns and with the addition of Francis and Sherod back from injury, there is no reason to think we should not win 18-20 games next season. Not an NCAA year, maybe NIT - but again, very hard to fire someone after that type of year, and with the team returning again - you will have to bring Mooney back one more year for the NCAA or bust year.

Also - I fear the billboard will have the opposite effect, and the AD and school will keep Mooney despite it because they want to show everyone they make the decisions that are best for the school and not some small donors who pool their money together. If this billboard had some big names tied to it like Robins, Quealy, or Ukrop - might be a different story, But coming from a small group of anonymous donors I think will only push them to keep Mooney to show Athletics is not important to UR and that winning is not essential.

And all this will be forgotten when UR makes the dance again in 20-21.

 

[Eight Legger]

Shafer's contract allegedly expires this year anyway. And we don't really need to buy Mooney out -- we're paying him for the next few years whether he's here or not. We just need to come up with the money for a new coach. Five years at $750k a year, let's say.

We are down about 15,000 tickets sold this year. Figure on the low end $10 a ticket on average (between freebies and $5 weekday ones, averaged in with the higher end ones) and another few bucks in lost concession revenue and you're looking at maybe $200k in lost revenue. Maybe a new coach helps make some or most of that back.

Can we find $500,000 a year for the first two years to hire a new guy and then hopefully benefit from some NCAA unit money to help find the rest? I believe so. It's not that difficult a path.

 

[SpideRVA]

Based on the events in the past week with the billboard and response, and lack of response from the AD or anyone in the athletic department - I now think more than ever that Mooney will be back. And the main reason is money. Our basketball program - both on the men's and women's sides are at all time lows right now. Given that UR has never really fired a coach, and based on numerous actions in the past few years - does not like to spend the money necessary it would take to make these big changes. Mooney will be owed 3 years if fired after this year - that is roughly $3 million dollars the school has to pay him not to coach. And if they were to fire Shafer, who I have no idea how much is left on his deal and how much, but lets assume a low amount of 3 years and 300K per year - then maybe he comes in right around 900K. Not to mention - the school needs to pay the new coach, which on the men's side will likely be 700K or more. I can see the billboard raising this price as some coaches may want more money now because of it and the headaches they will say come with it if they start losing games. So just on the men's side - we will need to invest $1.7 million or MORE for the next 3 years.
OR
AD Hardt fires Shafer, makes it appear he is sending a message that Mooney could be next (but really is just taking the cheaper of the two options). And this decision will also buy them time. Because if everyone returns and with the addition of Francis and Sherod back from injury, there is no reason to think we should not win 18-20 games next season. Not an NCAA year, maybe NIT - but again, very hard to fire someone after that type of year, and with the team returning again - you will have to bring Mooney back one more year for the NCAA or bust year.

Also - I fear the billboard will have the opposite effect, and the AD and school will keep Mooney despite it because they want to show everyone they make the decisions that are best for the school and not some small donors who pool their money together. If this billboard had some big names tied to it like Robins, Quealy, or Ukrop - might be a different story, But coming from a small group of anonymous donors I think will only push them to keep Mooney to show Athletics is not important to UR and that winning is not essential.

And all this will be forgotten when UR makes the dance again in 20-21.

I totally agree with this. This is called logic, pragmatism and a viewpoint of someone who understands fiscal responsibility. I said something similar on another thread earlier this week, but it was lost in one of the endless threads that changed (topics) more than a high school girl getting ready for her first school dance.

I appreciate all of the posts this week about "running a business" and "not accepting mediocrity", but its really easy for all of us to play back seat QB when it's not our money. Hardt, the BOT, the AD and the university all manage a P&L...while we may not always like their decisions, we must trust they have full information/perspective and they're doing their best to balance winning while maintaining their fiduciary duty to the university and its constituents.

 

[KWeaver]

They should've done that when they signed off on a 10 year contract, though. Compounding an error is not a good example of fiduciary responsibility.

 

[SpideRVA]

They should've done that when they signed off on a 10 year contract, though. Compounding an error is not a good example of fiduciary responsibility.

IMO, the compounding would be buying him out and paying a double salary for a new coach and him for the next three years. Sometimes you inherit crappy deals...

 

[urfan1]

Trap -- I'm confused you seem to say one reason, but then you state it's the money, it's the AD wants to prove he makes the decisions, and the University doesn't care about winning? Which one is it.

 

[spider23]

Everyone is way over thinking this. Does Queally want him back? That is the pertinent question.

 

[64Spider]

And all this will be forgotten when UR makes the dance again in 20-21

And that's the scary part!

 

[I-M-UR]

Trap -- I'm confused you seem to say one reason, but then you state it's the money, it's the AD wants to prove he makes the decisions, and the University doesn't care about winning? Which one is it.

Both. If Mooney's contract was up he'd be gone. But Mooney's contract cost and a less that aggressive desire to win means no real action.

I seem to recall when Chuck Boone was in this dilemma, he flat out said UR does not buy out contracts.....Of course UR had never offered a 10 contract to anybody. My guess is Hardt throws in band aids, consultants here new assistants there. Like what UVA tried with London.

 

[spider23]

I-M, it does all add up to your scenario. Leunarty hire was prong one. See, we are going to give Moan all the tools to win, if he does not by the end of his contract, we will not renew.

 

[97spiderfan]

Shafer's contract allegedly expires this year anyway. And we don't really need to buy Mooney out -- we're paying him for the next few years whether he's here or not. We just need to come up with the money for a new coach. Five years at $750k a year, let's say.

We are down about 15,000 tickets sold this year. Figure on the low end $10 a ticket on average (between freebies and $5 weekday ones, averaged in with the higher end ones) and another few bucks in lost concession revenue and you're looking at maybe $200k in lost revenue. Maybe a new coach helps make some or most of that back.

Can we find $500,000 a year for the first two years to hire a new guy and then hopefully benefit from some NCAA unit money to help find the rest? I believe so. It's not that difficult a path.

I have no idea how many tickets we are giving away or the omnipresent $5 special, just to get 5,000 people in the seats. But let's just say they get an extra 1000 people a night either at $5 or free (with the school giveaways/kids club).

Now lets say, we get a new coach and some fresh air is breathed back into the program and instead of 5000 people per night we average 6,000 people per night and we can actually charge our fair value ticket price which is $12 for priority, $22 for premium.

Just using the low end ticket price of $12 for priority, we could be looking at extra revenue of $25,000 per game. Over a 15 game season that is around an extra $350,000 annually, just in ticket revenue. This does not include concessions, increased Spider Club donations and other donations from lord knows how many people who aren't giving anymore because they are fed up.

You already have half your new coaches annually salary paid for just in lost ticket revenue.

So, the money argument doesn't hold water. As Eight pointed out the money is already sunk and possibly we have some reduced buyout based upon the extension he signed a couple years ago.

This decision has to be made on whether they think Mooney can lead us back to where ever the powers that be think our program should be. I say "where-ever" because no one knows what the expectations are for our basketball program because they have never been defined for us.

 

[keefusb]

Concession revenue might actually approach ticket revenue. I know when I take the family to the RC for a game, I pretty much plan to spend at least $25-30 if not more on food and drinks. So fewer butts in RC seats is not just impacting the ticket moneys.

At the end of the day, it's better to sack Mooney sooner rather than later. He's damaged goods, and there is not another school in the country right now who will come along and buy out his contract, so that money is committed no matter what.

The University f***ed up royally by giving CM a 10-year iron-clad contract, and someone (Gill?) must have been smoking crack to have given him the extension.

With CM's level of recruiting and bench coaching, even with the talent we have returning, we are a one-and-done NIT team at best next year, and ticket sales will not pick back up unless we have an outstanding OOC performance.

Successful business enterprises know when they have made a mistake that at some point it's better to stem the losses, and move forward with a new endeavor that promises better performance and increased revenues. Microsoft got out of the phone business; Google killed off Google+; GM realized there was no future for Saturn, Oldsmobile, and Pontiac.

We are much better off moving on, generating some interest and excitement with a great new coaching hire, and getting on with the business of re-building the program. A new coach will boost RC revenues, and will help make up for the financial losses that resulted from the boneheaded 10 year contract debacle.

The billboard may not have had the intended short-term effect, but it brought national attention to the issue, and puts some degree of pressure on the AD to do something decisive. If Hardt decisively cans CM, I will resume my season ticket purchases, and my financial support of UR athletics. If Hardt decides to keep Mooney for another three years, then I can plan to have three years worth of available evenings and weekends during the season and some more money in my pocket for house projects, or perhaps some extra popcorn at the R-MC men's basketball games.

#NoMoreMooneyTruthing

 

[I-M-UR]

I-M, it does all add up to your scenario. Leunarty hire was prong one. See, we are going to give Moan all the tools to win, if he does not by the end of his contract, we will not renew.

If so we'll soon be hearing " how can you expect me to recruit when I can't guarantee the players I'll be here for 4 years"

 

[keefusb]

"how can you expect me to recruit when I can't guarantee the players I'll be here for 4 years"

If there is no intention of renewing after three years, it doesn't matter. He will have to live with the "impediment" of not being able to guarantee recruits that he will be here for four more years. That impediment might help seal his fate anyway.

Most college coaches are operating on a 5 year contact which would mean that only the first two years of recruits would be guaranteed that the coach will still be there for all four years. Most players understand that if the coach doesn't perform, they can always transfer if they don't get playing time or the team ends up being terrible. Nothing guaranteed in life or basketball except CM's contract.

#NoMoreMooneyTruthing

 

[ur2K]

If the AD's decisions were only based on $, we wouldn't play DI athletics b/c I assume that our athletic department is not operating in the black.

 

[spider23]

Keef, great post a couple above.
The $ do not make sense to keep bringing him back, and we are not even looking at the cost benefit of publicity of making the NCAA, or even winning a few games. Just look at VCU and Loyola.
As much as we can look at the returning (hopefully all key pieces) talent next year, it just does not make sense to think Mooney can make into an NCAA team.

Maybe if Mooney can ever land that elusive 6'7 to 6'9 grad transfer that is long, athletic, and can actually play you have a roster that can compete against the best OOC ever. If not, we will score, but have some of the same shortcomings. Rebounding, interior defense, defense overall.

 

[whampas]

If the Administration (I would like to know who that really is) wanted Mooney to go, he would go. The contract lenghth at this point in its life is pointless. If you hire a new coach tomorrow, you would in all likelihood give him/her a 5 year contract and then a series of 1 year extensions if you buy the argument it helps recruiting and keeps you competitive. You're always going to be holding the bag for 3 or 4 years if things don't work out. So Richmond needs to put its big boy pants on and act like a player in D1 sports or get the hell out. Quit pretending and quit treating the fanbase like it's stupid. Do that and I'll buy tickets again and return to contributing.

 

[Eight Legger]

Richmond needs to put its big boy pants on and act like a player in D1 sports or get the hell out. Quit pretending and quit treating the fanbase like it's stupid.

I might make this my signature on here. This, in essence, is the root issue at UR.

 

[97spiderfan]

If the Administration (I would like to know who that really is) wanted Mooney to go, he would go. The contract lenghth at this point in its life is pointless. If you hire a new coach tomorrow, you would in all likelihood give him/her a 5 year contract and then a series of 1 year extensions if you buy the argument it helps recruiting and keeps you competitive. You're always going to be holding the bag for 3 or 4 years if things don't work out. So Richmond needs to put its big boy pants on and act like a player in D1 sports or get the hell out. Quit pretending and quit treating the fanbase like it's stupid. Do that and I'll buy tickets again and return to contributing.

Well said. Another reason money is not the factor people make it out to be. Head coaches are always going to have years and money left on their contracts. If everyone acted like us, no coach would ever get fired because of the money owed on the contract.

 

[MrTbone]

If the AD's decisions were only based on $, we wouldn't play DI athletics b/c I assume that our athletic department is not operating in the black.

I believe that very few schools athletics run profitably, most are paying out more than they’re generating.

 

[SpiderTrap]

You are all talking revenue like our hoops program makes money. I would guess it barely breaks even when you factor in all the overhead for each game, then throw in the salaries of the entire coaching staff, chartered flights, travel, etc. We are charging $5 to $10 a seat most nights. Look down the street - they charge $40-50 a night everygame!
The money SHOULD not be a factor, because UR has the money. But past decisions and I believe this one included will signal that they do not wish to spend this type of money to buyout a contract. Especially if Shafer is on his last year as suggested on here (if he is - then he deserves a pat on the back for getting any girl to commit to UR) - they can replace him at no cost. Then keep Mooney, the team will improve next year and they will TRY to make themselves look like the smart ones.
Not to mention - I have a feeling UR will take the stance that a billboard does not dictate their actions. So why I applaud the passion of the billboard, I think it will have the reverse effect.

 

[MrTbone]

Trap, not sure anyone is suggesting we are printing cash, I highly doubt we are. I think they’re just calculating means by which an increase in ticket revenue might offset cost of a buyout, at least against current attendance figures.

Seems like a fair argument, certainly no less reasonable than the hypothesis that we don’t have the money for a buyout at all which I personally think is patently absurd.

Agree completely that the billboard is likely to backfire, I think it creates sympathy for CM for many fans and hardens the AD to not be influenced.

 

[GKiller]

Mooney will be back because we have a Fake AD. Just look at the fake hiring process, it was a setup.

 

[MrTbone]

Mooney will be back because we have a Fake AD. Just look at the fake hiring process, it was a setup.

The hiring process was a farce by reasonable standards. I think the guy is qualified so I guess he’s not Fake AD.

If the only change we see with MBB is the addition of LoonHardee’s consulting services then I will sign on to the Fake AD moniker.

 

[97spiderfan]

Trap, not sure anyone is suggesting we are printing cash, I highly doubt we are. I think they’re just calculating means by which an increase in ticket revenue might offset cost of a buyout, at least against current attendance figures.

Seems like a fair argument, certainly no less reasonable than the hypothesis that we don’t have the money for a buyout at all which I personally think is patently absurd.

Agree completely that the billboard is likely to backfire, I think it creates sympathy for CM for many fans and hardens the AD to not be influenced.

The AD should be influenced by what is happening on the court, nothing else. If he is being influenced by other factors, billboards, Queally, remaining contract, or whatever, than we can clearly see that winning is not our number 1 priority with our Men's Basketball program.

 

[fatherspider]

And that's the scary part!

Not a chance this will happen. The moondog has had far better, more hungry teams over the last eight years and did not get it done. He is a one trick pony and all of the other coaches have learned new tricks. Mooney never learns.

 

[MrTbone]

The AD should be influenced by what is happening on the court, nothing else. If he is being influenced by other factors, billboards, Queally, remaining contract, or whatever, than we can clearly see that winning is not our number 1 priority with our Men's Basketball program.

While I get your point, “should” may be a bit myopic. I doubt that’s our number one priority so he’s unlikely to base his decision on that criteria alone. Otherwise we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

But I do agree that staying the course is a strong indication that competing at the top tier isn’t our main driver. The counterpoint is that the AD thinks we get to an adequate performance point faster by maintaining the status quo.

 

[wr70beh]

But I do agree that staying the course is a strong indication that competing at the top tier isn’t our main driver. The counterpoint is that the AD thinks we get to an adequate performance point faster by maintaining the status quo.

We could accomplish this by hiring an assistant coach at a D1 school at $300K a year. We don't need to be paying someone 4 times that amount of money. That will leave more money for Queally to spend on turning Robins Stadium into a Lacrosse paradise.

 

[MrTbone]

We could accomplish this by hiring an assistant coach at a D1 school at $300K a year. We don't need to be paying someone 4 times that amount of money. That will leave more money for Queally to spend on turning Robins Stadium into a Lacrosse paradise.

Agreed on this point. If we aren’t going to try to actually compete at the top level, let CMs contract run out and go hire someone for a third of the cost.

Obviously I pray that this is not our strategy. If it is, I expect it would result in a pretty significant hit to alumni giving.

 

[Eight Legger]

If we weren't paying so much money to Mooney, we would be able to follow Will Wade's lead and pay more to our players.

 

[keefusb]

We could accomplish this by hiring an assistant coach at a D1 school at $300K a year.

I would much rather we tell Mooney to go away right now, continue to pay him at the same rate we currently pay him until his contract is met, and hire someone like Beilein Jr. or Williford from UVA. Pay them $300k on a 5-year term starting next season. Give them some strong performance incentives like a $25k bonus for each win over VCU, $10k for every top 100 recruit we land, and/or a $50k bonus for making the NCAA's.

I think the uptick in ticket, concession, and donation revenues more than covers the new coach's compensation.

#NoMoreMooneyTruthing

 

[urfan1]

T I like your new avatar

 

[KE Spider]

T I like your new avatar

Me too. I hear he is streaming Bufffet at 10 tonight..

 

[MrTbone]

T I like your new avatar

Thanks bruv. Trying to spread some serenity. So far, not working.

 

[urmite]

Thanks bruv. Trying to spread some serenity. So far, not working.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

I would much rather we tell Mooney to go away right now, continue to pay him at the same rate we currently pay him until his contract is met, and hire someone like Beilein Jr. or Williford from UVA. Pay them $300k on a 5-year term starting next season. Give them some strong performance incentives like a $25k bonus for each win over VCU, $10k for every top 100 recruit we land, and/or a $50k bonus for making the NCAA's.

I think the uptick in ticket, concession, and donation revenues more than covers the new coach's compensation.

#NoMoreMooneyTruthing

I love the idea of an incentive-laden contract. #nomorecomplacency

 

[SpiderTrap]

I would much rather we tell Mooney to go away right now, continue to pay him at the same rate we currently pay him until his contract is met, and hire someone like Beilein Jr. or Williford from UVA. Pay them $300k on a 5-year term starting next season. Give them some strong performance incentives like a $25k bonus for each win over VCU, $10k for every top 100 recruit we land, and/or a $50k bonus for making the NCAA's.

I think the uptick in ticket, concession, and donation revenues more than covers the new coach's compensation.

#NoMoreMooneyTruthing

Williford probably makes 500K+as an assistant at UVA. You don't stick around with Bennett for less than 300K and most top assistants these days at top 25 programs make low level Head Coach salaries because they are so important (recruiting!) to the success of the program.
The incentive contract sounds good in theory, but that is not how the business works anymore. Maybe back in the 1990's when UR was in the CAA, you could get away with this - but your not going to get any good coach with a proven record for 300K and a bunch of incentives. Beilein JR keeps getting mentioned - but honestly, I think UR and being in the A10 in general puts us past hiring him at this point. He needs a stop somewhere else before UR can consider him.
Look at Rhoades at VCU. He coached 10 years at Randolph Macon and was very successful there, and his jump to this level was an assistant at VCU, then head coach at Rice, before he got back to VCU as head coach.
Even Nathan Davis at Bucknell - he did got from Randolph Macon to Bucknell - but he was a D1 assistant for 10 years prior to that as well.

We either need to pay up for a new experienced coach, with D1 success - either as a head coach or P5 assistant. Or we just stick with Mooney. If we go this "cheap" route - then I think the message is clear - UR doesn't care about athletics.

 

[keefusb]

Williford probably makes 500K+as an assistant at UVA.

I would be shocked to learn that Williford makes over $500k.

EDIT: As of 2017 he was making $236k according to the R-TD.

#NoMoreMooneyTruthing

 

[nathanw19]

I love the idea of an incentive-laden contract. #nomorecomplacency

I love this idea too, but contracts are a 2 way street. I would imagine it’ll be difficult to get someone to accept a contract that is heavily incentive laden if the incentives aren’t readily reachable.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Earl Grant is outperforming Mooney, and his incentive for making the NCAAs last year was less than Mooney's game check.