Good Wins/Bad Losses

[PhillySpider]

So we are going to need to get some good wins this year, especially non-conference ones, if we are to meet or come close to expectations. Last year we had not a single good non-conference win.

We already have a bad loss with JMU - - and those who argued this wasn't going to end up looking like a bad loss, please take note that JMU has lost to Oral Roberts and UT-Martin, both in Harrisonburg-- so that's going to be a bad loss!

That means we need multiple good wins to end up on the good side of the good win/bad loss weighting. Wake may end up a good win, but that will depend on how they do, especially within the ACC. For that to be a good win, they'll need to do well enough to be the conversation for a bid themselves. We don't get all that many shots non-conference - - although thankfully more than last year - - so we need to grab some when we can. That makes this next stretch vital - - we need some good wins and to take care of business in games like Northern Iowa and not let those things get away from us like JMU.

WVU is the best one to get as it likely gets us another game with a ranked opponent that will overall help the SOS etc. and gives us a chance to really make a statement. While certainly not a "must win," I think we need a WVU win!

 

[fan2011]

So we are going to need to get some good wins this year, especially non-conference ones, if we are to meet or come close to expectations. Last year we had not a single good non-conference win.

We already have a bad loss with JMU - - and those who argued this wasn't going to end up looking like a bad loss, please take note that JMU has lost to Oral Roberts and UT-Martin, both in Harrisonburg-- so that's going to be a bad loss!

That means we need multiple good wins to end up on the good side of the good win/bad loss weighting. Wake may end up a good win, but that will depend on how they do, especially within the ACC. For that to be a good win, they'll need to do well enough to be the conversation for a bid themselves. We don't get all that many shots non-conference - - although thankfully more than last year - - so we need to grab some when we can. That makes this next stretch vital - - we need some good wins and to take care of business in games like Northern Iowa and not let those things get away from us like JMU.

WVU is the best one to get as it likely gets us another game with a ranked opponent that will overall help the SOS etc. and gives us a chance to really make a statement. While certainly not a "must win," I think we need a WVU win!

A good win is against a top 100 rpi team, great wins are against top 50 rpi. Not all top 50 RPI teams make the NCAAs, many miss out, but top 50 wins are still the benchmark for a great win. Top 25 of course are the best wins, and those teams virtually always make the NCAAs. My point is Wake doesn't need to make the NCAAs to be a great win, they need a top 50 RPI. When they get their two best players back they will be better and hopefully will end up middle of the pack in a strong ACC. They have the potential to be a top 50 RPI team if their returning players significantly improve their team.

Cal/SDSU, WVU, Florida, UNI, ODU and Texas Tech are likely all going to be top 100 teams, so we have a lot of opportunities for good wins OOC. About half of those will end up in the top 50, and I am going to guess 2 or 3 will be in the NCAAs. If we get 2 wins against these teams our OOC will be ok but we will need to do serious work in conference. If we get 3 wins we will be on the bubble going into conference play as long as we don't have any other bad losses. 4 wins and we are in great shape. 5 wins and we are ranked.

 

[wr70beh]

You know Wake is 3 places ahead of us in KenPom, but like 50 ahead of us in RealtimeRPI. IN other words, don't put a lot of faith in the computer rankings so early in the system. One has VCU ranked 49, and another 214!

 

[fan2011]

You know Wake is 3 places ahead of us in KenPom, but 3 places behind us in RealtimeRPI. IN other words, don't put a lot of faith in the computer rankings so early in the system. One has VCU ranked 49, and another 214!

RPI is really bad at predicting which team will win and will fluctuate wildly in the first few months, but it is what the selection committee looks at soit is important. Kenpom has much less fluctuation, and is much better at predicting who will win games, but it still needs more data to be accurate.

 

[PhillySpider]

Fan - - Not sure that I'd agree that a Top 100 win is a good win - - at least not the kind the committee looks at and says "that's a good win there" and I definitely don't think Top 50 wins are "great" wins. As you noted, not all Top 50 teams will make the dance. Hard to say that beating a team that's on the bubble is a "great" win and beating a team ranked 91 on your home fllor isn't even going to register much less be a "good win" come selection day. I'd say I feel like Top 75 on the road or Top 50 at home is a good win. Great win needs to be Top 30 at home and maybe Top 40-50 on the road. These are needle movers and that's what I think we need!

 

[Eight Legger]

I think we're already in a better position than we were last year. JMU this year is likely to be better than JMU last year, even with their two other bad losses. Wake already has a better win than anyone we beat OOC last year. As noted, we had zero quality OOC wins last year and only the two wins against VCU as very good wins, and we still were among the last 4 teams out of the tournament.

We could lose both games in Vegas and win the ODU and UNI games and one of Texas Tech/Florida and be far ahead of last year's pace. We'll have a number of chances for top-100 wins in our league, too. We don't need to be perfect, we just need to get a few of these games and we'll be in very nice shape.

 

[TBSpyder]

We're over analyzing this. Just win the next game, and go forth.

 

[MrTbone]

Philly, I think you are being a bit literal with fan2011's comments. Everything he states there is interpretative of the rpi methodology. Technically, a rpi100 win is good, a rpi50 is very good, etc. above 100 is pretty much just about the losses.

I think the good wins outweigh the bad losses as long as you don't have multiple blemishes there.

 

[urmite]

This is the main "cheat sheet" that the committee gets when picking at large bids
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/nitty-clear
That is what they meant. I believe many call what you meant "signature wins". Ones that stand on their own.

Many of the same sources that said we were expected to beat JMU are the same ones that said they were expected to win their last two home games.

It will be difficult to get even a fuzzy view of the big picture until Christmas. Just concentrate on the next game, And everybody else's games each day.