ADVERTISEMENT

Forecast on rest of season

UR80sfan

UR80sfan

Star
Jan 28, 2018
1,378
2,326
113
We have only played 3 games, but as the season goes on people's perception of how we are going to do evolves, along with computer rankings. Kenpom now has us winning 19 games, up one from the beginning of the year. They also have us favored in 21 games. Below is an updated forecast from A10 Talk that projects we will 20 games and make the NIT. https://www.a10talk.com/chris-mooney-how-his-spiders-are-doing/

I am not saying these win totals are good or bad. Some members of this board forecaster 14 wins and I wondering if they have changed their opinion?

We have a very difficult week next week against 3 top 100 teams. A lot could change.
 
Last edited:
UR80sfan said:
We have only played 3 games, but as the season goes on people's perception of how we are going to do evolves, along with computer rankings. Kenpom now has us winning 19 games, up one from the beginning of the year. They also have us favored in 21 games. Below is an updated forecast from A10 Talk that projects we will 20 games and make the NIT. https://www.a10talk.com/chris-mooney-how-his-spiders-are-doing/

I am not saying these win totals are good or bad. Some members of this board forecaster 14 wins and I wondering if they have changed their opinion?

We have a very difficult week next week against 3 top 100 teams. A lot could change.
Click to expand...
A10 Talk's prediction is shorting us a game. We play 31 this season. They have us at 9-3 in non-conference - if that is our record going into the Alabama game, we're doing pretty good.

I don't know, the models I follow projected between 13 and 16 wins this season, and most of them included a 4-0 start.
I'm encouraged by what I've seen so far, but we were supposed to win all three games, so that doesn't move the needle much.

I suspect the rise in Kenpom and others is influenced by the margin of victory against CSUN.

Reportedly, the NET formula puts a cap on the scoring margin at 10 points, and OT wins count as 1 point wins.
 
UR80sfan said:
We have only played 3 games, but as the season goes on people's perception of how we are going to do evolves, along with computer rankings. Kenpom now has us winning 19 games, up one from the beginning of the year. They also have us favored in 21 games. Below is an updated forecast from A10 Talk that projects we will 20 games and make the NIT. https://www.a10talk.com/chris-mooney-how-his-spiders-are-doing/

I am not saying these win totals are good or bad. Some members of this board forecaster 14 wins and I wondering if they have changed their opinion?

We have a very difficult week next week against 3 top 100 teams. A lot could change.
Click to expand...

NCAA or bust.

We are in the midst of our easiest 4 game stretch of the season by far. I have not changed my prediction & expectation of NCAA. Have you?
 
ChoppinBroccoli said:
A10 Talk's prediction is shorting us a game. We play 31 this season. They have us at 9-3 in non-conference - if that is our record going into the Alabama game, we're doing pretty good.

I don't know, the models I follow projected between 13 and 16 wins this season, and most of them included a 4-0 start.
I'm encouraged by what I've seen so far, but we were supposed to win all three games, so that doesn't move the needle much.

I suspect the rise in Kenpom and others is influenced by the margin of victory against CSUN.

Reportedly, the NET formula puts a cap on the scoring margin at 10 points, and OT wins count as 1 point wins.
Click to expand...
We will soon see whose models are more accurate. In Kenpom the first 3 games make a difference because our probability of winning goes to 100% for the 1st 3 games. As mentioned, they have us favored to win 21, but only expects us to win 19. The difference is the probability of winning each game.

FYI, my forecast on the season has not changed. I don't think we will make the NCAA unless we win the tournament. I am looking at 19/20 wins and NIT. This could change is we do better than expected next weeks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Captain Anderson and ChoppinBroccoli
ChoppinBroccoli said:
A10 Talk's prediction is shorting us a game. We play 31 this season. They have us at 9-3 in non-conference - if that is our record going into the Alabama game, we're doing pretty good.

I don't know, the models I follow projected between 13 and 16 wins this season, and most of them included a 4-0 start.
I'm encouraged by what I've seen so far, but we were supposed to win all three games, so that doesn't move the needle much.

I suspect the rise in Kenpom and others is influenced by the margin of victory against CSUN.

Reportedly, the NET formula puts a cap on the scoring margin at 10 points, and OT wins count as 1 point wins.
Click to expand...
The Auburn/New Mexico game doesn't count, because we don't have an opponent yet...;)
 
So...

If we lead Wisconsin 43-10 after 14 minutes, would that affect anyone's predictions?o_O
 
  • Like
Reactions: Spider93
The Wisconsin game is our biggest OOC game, not only because Wisconsin should be good, but also because if we win, we most likely get Auburn the next night. Auburn is ranked in the Top 25. Win or lose, that Auburn game, just playing them in going to help our NET and resume immensly.

So, if there is one OOC game, I really want to win. It is Wisconsin.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Captain Anderson, Spider93 and gospidersgo
UR80sfan said:
We have only played 3 games, but as the season goes on people's perception of how we are going to do evolves, along with computer rankings. Kenpom now has us winning 19 games, up one from the beginning of the year. They also have us favored in 21 games. Below is an updated forecast from A10 Talk that projects we will 20 games and make the NIT. https://www.a10talk.com/chris-mooney-how-his-spiders-are-doing/

I am not saying these win totals are good or bad. Some members of this board forecaster 14 wins and I wondering if they have changed their opinion?

We have a very difficult week next week against 3 top 100 teams. A lot could change.
Click to expand...
And no, nothing has changed for me. The first 4 teams on our schedule, were all must wins from my perspective and it looks like we are going to do just that.

Our play thus far has also reinforced what I thought initially, which is good enough to beat anyone, but our defense is going to cost us a number of games we should win. Still an NIT team in my opinion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: keefusb
97spiderfan said:
Win or lose, that Auburn game, just playing them in going to help our NET and resume immensly.
Click to expand...
if this statement is accurate, then that's a terrible flaw in the formula. losing to a team shouldn't help our net or resume at all.
 
spiderman said:
if this statement is accurate, then that's a terrible flaw in the formula. losing to a team shouldn't help our net or resume at all.
Click to expand...
Not entirely sure about NET. But I believe there were times when losing to a 25-5 team would be better than beating a 5-25 team in RPI...

Now overall resume is a different story...
 
spiderman said:
if this statement is accurate, then that's a terrible flaw in the formula. losing to a team shouldn't help our net or resume at all.
Click to expand...
Losing doesn't help our NET ranking, but our SOS will benefit.
As far as the resume, or "team sheet" - the committee definitely wants to see more games, win or lose, in Quad 1 or 2. They want teams to schedule strong opponents. Unfortunately, we didn't schedule any sure Quad 1 games. Wisconsin will be one; hopefully, Auburn makes two.
Maybe Alabama and ODU finish in the top 75 as well.
 
But does losing to Auburn improve our resume more than beating New Mexico?
 
I remain confident that we will make it to the national championship while we continue to average 90+ ppg. There, we will meet those bastards from Central Michigan and lock them down on D, holding them to 89 points in a 91-89 win.
 
  • Like
Reactions: wr70beh
UR80sfan said:
We have only played 3 games, but as the season goes on people's perception of how we are going to do evolves, along with computer rankings. Kenpom now has us winning 19 games, up one from the beginning of the year. They also have us favored in 21 games. Below is an updated forecast from A10 Talk that projects we will 20 games and make the NIT. https://www.a10talk.com/chris-mooney-how-his-spiders-are-doing/

I am not saying these win totals are good or bad. Some members of this board forecaster 14 wins and I wondering if they have changed their opinion?

We have a very difficult week next week against 3 top 100 teams. A lot could change.
Click to expand...
I still think we are probably an 18 win team. 3-0 start is right where they should be. I still have significant concerns about our defense and that to me is the difference between being on the right side of .500, or far over .500. Very encouraging though that we’ve won games we should win.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nathanw19
3-0 is nice but just as easily could be 1-2. Lets see how we do against real teams. Offense is awesome, defense not so much. Hoping Mooney proves himself to all the haters (including me). Willing to eat crow if we continue to win. Is Ulla ever coming back?
 
  • Like
Reactions: wr70beh
Will be very interesting to see how defense progresses. Mooney talked this up as a point of emphasis in the offseason, and so far results not very good. So far, season going just about as predicted by most fans on this board. The team has a big opportunity to set the tone for the season when visit Barclays.
 
Marley13 said:
3-0 is nice but just as easily could be 1-2. Lets see how we do against real teams. Offense is awesome, defense not so much. Hoping Mooney proves himself to all the haters (including me). Willing to eat crow if we continue to win. Is Ulla ever coming back?
Click to expand...
But we are 3-0, this is the current record that counts. Defensive effort is relative to the teams we play and at the time we play them. There is so much parity among teams in 19-20 season, whereas any team played is a real team. We are never satisfied, when it is cold..we want heat and when it is hot weather...we want cold weather....Go Spiders!!!
 
spider23 said:
Will be very interesting to see how defense progresses. Mooney talked this up as a point of emphasis in the offseason, and so far results not very good. So far, season going just about as predicted by most fans on this board. The team has a big opportunity to set the tone for the season when visit Barclays.
Click to expand...
I would much rather have a bend but not break defense until we begin to mesh together as a unit. Go Spiders!!!
 
I still think we are looking at an 18-20 win season. We've had such brutal starts (and losses) to begin the last few seasons that 3-0 feels like a massive improvement. Unfortunately that 18-20 win range puts us squarely in the "The team showed great improvement...all eggs in the 20-21 season basket". I'm happy for the players that we have won some close games early this season and we surely seem to be headed to a "winning" campaign after two straight miserable 20 loss seasons but I'm still not sure where that leaves our program long term. 20-21 will have massive pressure and implications for Mooney...at that point you are looking squarely at a decade of no NCAA berths and the team losses a ton of experience after that year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Not-A-Homer
Yep, seeing the strategy of "getting old" in college basketball as a method of success more and more. Basically, when you have holes in your lineup, you really need to supplement with good grad transfers. Mooney cannot do this. I know my cohorts in truthernation.com are going to say, blah blah blah this is p6 conferences doing it, blah blah blah. BUT, it can be done by mid majors IF you have recent NCAA success and IF you have a dynamic coach and IF you have a coach who can show them a picture of how they will fit in and push you over the top.

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/2...en-texas-tech-an-advantage-in-the-tournament/
 
spider23 said:
Yep, seeing the strategy of "getting old" in college basketball as a method of success more and more. Basically, when you have holes in your lineup, you really need to supplement with good grad transfers. Mooney cannot do this. I know my cohorts in truthernation.com are going to say, blah blah blah this is p6 conferences doing it, blah blah blah. BUT, it can be done by mid majors IF you have recent NCAA success and IF you have a dynamic coach and IF you have a coach who can show them a picture of how they will fit in and push you over the top.

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/2...en-texas-tech-an-advantage-in-the-tournament/
Click to expand...
Just a random player, don’t know if he was eligible for grad transfer, and we didn’t have a spot anyway but...

Tyler Hagedorn of South Dakota. Played 3 years there, sat out last season back this season as 5th year senior. 6’10” 235 lb and 16-19 from three this season...
 
We should be able to capitalize on P5 kids looking to transfer for more playing time. Whether it be a grad transfer or not. But I have a feeling our admissions doesn't like transfers coming in for 1 year to play sports.
 
SpiderTrap said:
We should be able to capitalize on P5 kids looking to transfer for more playing time. Whether it be a grad transfer or not. But I have a feeling our admissions doesn't like transfers coming in for 1 year to play sports.
Click to expand...

Mite - we did have open spot this year.

We probably won't ever go overboard with grad transfers but we've taken 3 in basketball and football has a handful.
 
  • Like
Reactions: urfan1
Why are we even playing McNeese? Looks like some of you have already given us the win. My I remind you that 2 of the teams that Kenpom had us winning 100%, we barely won in overtime....at home. So let's not get too ahead of ourselves.

Mooney has a decent record in neutral court games, so IF we beat Cowboys, then we will get a better idea against top 100 competitors.
 
SpiderRick said:
Why are we even playing McNeese? Looks like some of you have already given us the win. My I remind you that 2 of the teams that Kenpom had us winning 100%, we barely won in overtime....at home. So let's not get too ahead of ourselves.

Mooney has a decent record in neutral court games, so IF we beat Cowboys, then we will get a better idea against top 100 competitors.
Click to expand...
rick, they are part of the 8 teams that are part of the tournament we are playing in. The "other" four I believe are mcnesse, CSUN, Colgate and Wisconsin Green Bay
 
  • Like
Reactions: plydogg
SpiderTrap said:
We should be able to capitalize on P5 kids looking to transfer for more playing time. Whether it be a grad transfer or not. But I have a feeling our admissions doesn't like transfers coming in for 1 year to play sports.
Click to expand...


Admissions-ie Undergrad Admissions--has nothing to do w/ Grad Transfers. However, any "typical" transfer must be here for 2 years, which is the requirement for getting an undergrad degree. So someone w/ one year of eligiblity left and doesn't have his undergrad, would have to stay 2 to play 1.

We are scheduled to have the entire team coming back next year. A grad transfer usually leaves in search of more PT.
 
Here is how my forecast for the team will change based on what we do over the next 4 games. FYI, I don't think Friday's game is going to be as easy as most of you think.

If we go (corrected from 1st post):
0-4 I would lower my win total to 16 to 17
1-3 I would lower my win total to 17 to 18
2-2 slightly lower to 19
3-1 raise to 20 to 21
4-0 raise to 22 to 24

This is potentially and 8 win difference and assumes we don't have any major injuries. I assume the next for games will have an impact on other peoples views depending how we do.
 
Last edited:
UR80sfan said:
Here is how my forecast for the team will change based on what we do over the next 4 games. FYI, I don't think Friday's game is going to be as easy as most of you think.

If we go:
0-4 I would lower my win total to 16 to 17
1-4 I would lower my win total to 17 to 18
2-4 slightly lower to 19
3-1 raise to 20 to 21
4-0 raise to 22 to 24

This assumes we don't have any major injuries. I assume the next for games will have an impact on other peoples views depending how we do.
Click to expand...

So if we win a bunch of games the next couple weeks you think we will win more this season.

And if we lose a bunch of games the next couple weeks you think we will win less games this season.

Hard to argue with that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Spider93, MrTbone and GKiller
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

SFspidur

Davidson women cancel remainder of their season

Replies
30
Views
2K
UR Basketball Board
spider23
spider23
7

Expect to win

Replies
14
Views
949
UR Basketball Board
gcarter52
gcarter52
S

Spiders in 2010 - 7 seed, at large

Replies
33
Views
1K
UR Basketball Board
urmite
urmite
spider23

Jordan Rules

Replies
24
Views
1K
UR Basketball Board
urmite
urmite
B

Pace of play

Replies
2
Views
440
UR Basketball Board
SpiderRick
SpiderRick
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back