Actually if we go 1-4 or 2-4 in the next FOUR games, I am raising my predicted number of wins.
I assume you meant 1-3 or 2-2. But it was still funny...I have a strange sense of humor.
Forecast on rest of season
- Thread starter UR80sfan
- Start date
I assume you meant 1-3 or 2-2. But it was still funny...I have a strange sense of humor.
Over the last 5 games we have played like a boarder line top 25 team. Very impressive 13 point win against Wisconsin and than complete domination of Boston college. I am changing my prediction to 21 to 25 wins and 50% chance of NCAA if no major injuries. Anyone else changing their win forecast?
Nope, still see us as about a 20 win, NIT caliber program. While we have looked really good, so has a lot of the A-10. Conference is gonna be a much different beast this year.
You can be like our boy Lunardi. Just change your predictions at very last minute when you get inside info from the committee. No longer a prediction at a certain point but hey who cares.
NCAA or bust
I think an NIT bid is very realistic at this point, but an NCAA bid is still a bit of a stretch. Our only chances for "quad 1" wins from here on out are maybe @Alabama, @VCU, maybe VCU at home, Dayton at home, and maybe @Duquesne. With only 3 to 5 more chances, we probably need to win at least 2 of those, and not drop any quad 3 or 4 games. It will be very tough.
I'm upgrading mine. I think we crack the 20 win barrier for the first time since 2011. (Regular Season)
I projected us 7-1 at this point, but didn't realistically expect it given Mooney's track record in non-conference games as a favorite.
Some of our upcoming opponents are having down years (Charleston, ODU) - nothing we can do about that but go out and win, but this helps the projection.
20 wins against this schedule won't be enough for a bid. 25 wins (including A-10 tourney games) is probably the threshold.
I projected us 7-1 at this point, but didn't realistically expect it given Mooney's track record in non-conference games as a favorite.
Some of our upcoming opponents are having down years (Charleston, ODU) - nothing we can do about that but go out and win, but this helps the projection.
20 wins against this schedule won't be enough for a bid. 25 wins (including A-10 tourney games) is probably the threshold.
Yes, I am still expecting us to stub our toe somewhere along the way. On the other hand, I'm not sure there is a game left that I would bet $10k against us.
Assuming 3 games in Brooklyn, Selection Sunday seems to be:
22-12 No At-large
23-11 SOS likely to keep us out
24-10 SOS makes it slightly more out than in
25-9 SOS makes it more in than out
26-8 I would be surprised to be out
27-7
We would almost have to be perfect against this schedule in order to get an at large bid based on it's lack of top tier opponents. I think some folks may be surprised at the end of the year when we have 19-22 wins and are still mid to bottom of the NCAA bubble list. Maybe Wisconsin, Vandy, BC, and Alabama will end up being better than expected but those teams "sound" better than they are because they are power 5 schools. We are off to a great start and I certainly don't want to diminish that. It's great to be beating teams that we should be by 15-20 points and the defense seems to have really improved since the first few games. We've started out so bad the last few years that this start seems like utopia...I get it and I say enjoy it...but there's a lot of work left to do to even sniff an NCAA bid with this schedule.
there's a lot of work to do to make the dance with any schedule. you have to win.
I personally don't get as caught up in March Madness in November and December as some of you do. I'm enjoying winning. If we're on the bubble close to the end, then I'll look at it more. but I'm not concerned all season long about how everyone on our schedule is doing. the schedule is set. all we can do now is try to win every game it. and enjoy the ride.
I personally don't get as caught up in March Madness in November and December as some of you do. I'm enjoying winning. If we're on the bubble close to the end, then I'll look at it more. but I'm not concerned all season long about how everyone on our schedule is doing. the schedule is set. all we can do now is try to win every game it. and enjoy the ride.
This is a forecast thread. I changed my forecast based on:
Actually winning the 7 games we were supposed to.
How our scheduled opponents are doing. I think that's very relevant for a "forecast."
Perhaps the MM discussion should be in a different thread. However, the OP recently updated his forecast to "21 to 25 wins and 50% chance of NCAA."
So, what's your prediction?
Think we finish OOC at 10-3.
Then 10-8 in the A10. Gets us to 20-11 before A10 tourney, where I think we win 2 games and get to 22-12 with an NIT invite waiting, no mention of NCAA this year.
Then 10-8 in the A10. Gets us to 20-11 before A10 tourney, where I think we win 2 games and get to 22-12 with an NIT invite waiting, no mention of NCAA this year.
If you look at Kenpom and some of the other forecasting sights we are now expected to win 22 games this season. I am now beginning to think that with a healthy Grant and Cayo we could do better than what they predict. I now predict we go 12-1 out of conference. We should be able to beat Alabama. I also think we will go 12-6 in conference for a total of 24 regular season wins.
BTW, Kenpom has a favored to win 24, but only winning 22 games
BTW, Kenpom has a favored to win 24, but only winning 22 games
Well, we are almost perfect against this schedule. I think if we got 12-1 or 11-2, we are well positioned to get out of our OOC as a team mentioned by everyone as a bubble team. We already are mentioned in that regards, so if we win 3 or 4 more, folks are going to be talking a lot more about us.
Since they expanded to 68 teams the bubble is way softer than it used to be. Look at VCU, they are listed as a team easily in right now and you can make a pretty good argument that our schedule/results are better than there's at present. They have a home win over LSU on their record, but 2 losses to our 1 loss and our 1 loss is to a better team.
Agreed, we've had a great start to the season. Team and coaching staff should be commended. It will be interesting to see how we play once true A-10 road play begins...those games haven't been Mooney's strong point over the recent past. If we can win our share of those conference road games we could definitely put ourselves in the at large/bubble discussion. I'm very impressed with this team so far (not that my opinion carries any weight, lol). I do think the awful starts of the past few seasons have altered the perceptions of some folks now that we are winning games that we should but you just want to put yourself in position to play meaningful games in March and this team is on track to do that.
It will be interesting to see how high expectations get on this board when and if we finish the OOC at 11-2 or even 10-3. Does that record raise expectations and what happens if we finish the A10 slate at 10-8 and finish in 5th or 6th place. Even though we will end up with 20-21 wins overall (probably more with A10 tourney) and a great improvement from prior year - does the good start in OOC raise the bar for A10 schedule?
Frankly, if we finish OOC at 10-3 (meaning 2-2 in the next four), that would lower my expectations. I've already raised them based on us winning all of the games we should win.
Going 2-2 would bring us back to earth a little bit, but I think the Alabama game will be tough - since this will be a true road game, and a little bit tougher because its the first game after Christmas break (but this could also help as I doubt there will be many students at the game for Alabama). ODU will be tougher than most people think and Radford is a game we should win - but they are an NCAA team, have a good coach, and their 3 best players are on the perimeter and guards as well - so should be a good matchup for our three headed monster of Sherod, Francis, and Gilyard. I expect 3-1 with loss to Alabama, but I think 2-2 is a possibility.
Kenpom has us beating Charleston by 10, OD by 5, Radford by 6 and losing to Alabama by 2. But their computer program does not factor in that the Alabama game will have few students. Anything could happen, but the computer says 3-1 and my big optimistic brain say 4-0.
FYI, Kenpom is pretty optimistic on our program. It only has us losing one game by more than 3 points (VCU away) the rest of the season.
FYI, Kenpom is pretty optimistic on our program. It only has us losing one game by more than 3 points (VCU away) the rest of the season.
Radford is not an NCAA team (no matter what Bob Black says), they did not make it last year they went in 17-18'. They are decent team but not as strong as past couple years. Should do pretty well in Big South, but only way to NCAA is auto bid so that is only around 30-40% chance.
4-0 this is our year. These are all super winnable games for this group.
Ha, I like Bob's propaganda for HighlanderNation. Trap got fooled, and in turn fooled me.
Ha, I like Bob's propaganda for HighlanderNation. Trap got fooled, and in turn fooled me.
Interestingly enough, per kenpom, they were #170 the year they went to the NCAA, but #122 last year.
Which says something more about the Big South than about Radford.
So far this season they are #129.
This would improve if they go 3-0 in their next three games...
Never thought in my wildest dreams that we could go 12-1 in ooc, but this is actually doable!
I don't think we could have asked for a better schedule this year. We are tied for the best start to a season over the past 50 years and more importantly currently rank 22 in the NET ranking.
Because the A10 has done so well out of conference the rest of the schedule looks like we are in a power 5 basketball conference. Over our remaining 20 games we have 11 quad 1 or 2 games (4 quad 1 and 7 quad 2). This link urmite posted is outstanding to see were we are.
https://www.bracketologists.com/team/richmond-spiders
We should be able to lose 5 or 6 games and still make the NCAA tournament without having to win the A1O Tournament .
Because the A10 has done so well out of conference the rest of the schedule looks like we are in a power 5 basketball conference. Over our remaining 20 games we have 11 quad 1 or 2 games (4 quad 1 and 7 quad 2). This link urmite posted is outstanding to see were we are.
https://www.bracketologists.com/team/richmond-spiders
We should be able to lose 5 or 6 games and still make the NCAA tournament without having to win the A1O Tournament .
My fear is we go:
11-2 OOC
12-6 A-10
1-1 Brooklyn
24-9 and first 4 out
My hope is we go:
12-1 OOC
13-5 A-10
2-0 Brooklyn (with a game left)
27-6 and more relaxed on Sunday
11-2 OOC
12-6 A-10
1-1 Brooklyn
24-9 and first 4 out
My hope is we go:
12-1 OOC
13-5 A-10
2-0 Brooklyn (with a game left)
27-6 and more relaxed on Sunday
Would really love for this to be true at the end of the season.
https://www.bracketologists.com/bracket/
3 Seed Dayton
5 Seed Duquesne
6 Seed UR
And someone (close by) 7th out
https://www.bracketologists.com/bracket/
3 Seed Dayton
5 Seed Duquesne
6 Seed UR
And someone (close by) 7th out
