I also think ours is better. But, so many things can come into play. They could get to their final and play San Diego State close. We could lose before that, or get to our final and get routed by Dayton. I would like to think getting to the finals puts us in regardless, but if a couple teams steal bids down the stretch, and it comes down to us and Utah State, something like this could come into play. I still think our resume would be better, but we just don't know what the committee thinks. So, I'm not quite ready to say if Utah State is in we are. Plus, that is two mid majors. And, we know there's only so much room for them.
Bracketology update
- Thread starter Gospiders06
- Start date
I also think ours is better. But, so many things can come into play. They could get to their final and play San Diego State close. We could lose before that, or get to our final and get routed by Dayton. I would like to think getting to the finals puts us in regardless, but if a couple teams steal bids down the stretch, and it comes down to us and Utah State, something like this could come into play. I still think our resume would be better, but we just don't know what the committee thinks. So, I'm not quite ready to say if Utah State is in we are. Plus, that is two mid majors. And, we know there's only so much room for them.
Our resumes are remarkably similar. They have two Q3 losses to our win, but they have two Q1 wins (LSU and Florida) on par with our Wisconsin win. We have a much better road record. Four of their losses are to the best-of-the-best Q1a (two of them being SDSU).
But beyond that, it's almost spooky how close they are. Non-conference SOS is basically identical, overall Q1 and Q2 records are identical. Average NETs of wins and losses are very close.
But beyond that, it's almost spooky how close they are. Non-conference SOS is basically identical, overall Q1 and Q2 records are identical. Average NETs of wins and losses are very close.
Yeah, I just meant that as of today, anyone who has them in also should have us in because we have a better resume today.
They haven't beaten anyone on the road. That's the big difference. Their best road win was against #107. We have two road wins significantly better than that (Rhody and Davidson).
They've been excellent on neutral courts, however, and that's where tourney games are played. The committee will like that.
I'd also argue playing Florida in Sunrise isn't exactly a neutral game. Yes, it's quite a ways from Gainesville, but I'm sure the vast majority of the 8927 folks there were Gator fans.
A bit off topic, but any idea why Wake Forest vs Davidson at the Charlotte Spectrum is a Davidson home game instead of Neutral?
Can read over the criteria starting on page 11 here:
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/ForSIDs/Policies.pdf
I assume it's as simple as Davidson is in the Charlotte metro area while Wake is not.
Thanks!
I always look at the fifth bullet point. So I thought it was neutral. Apparently 3rd bullet point applies (and maybe 2nd).
I guess I won't get the NCAA to recalculate Davidson NET with a Neutral loss...
Ding Ding Ding. Your first graph is spot on. It is maddening that we paid a consultant to help us improve our resume, and that same consultant is essentially now saying "resume not good enough" when we have 23 wins.
I don't think we can just schedule terrible OOC that "everybody pummels" though. George Mason had a tremendous OOC record against a terrible SOS, and beating them twice ain't doing jack for us. The common refrain in the articles about our bubble status is: Other than Dayton, VCU/LSU and UR/Wisconsin, the A10 really didn't do anything to distinguish themselves as a conference. And that's the truth. You need quantity of wins AND quality wins. We will never be able to count on our conference-mates for that. So, knowing that, we need to schedule like the A10 is Jobu in Major League. "**** *** Jobu, I do it myself."
I know it's really irritating when B1G teams get a "quality win" or a "not bad loss" over Minnesota. We're not going to get that benefit, and we know it. That ship has sailed. We need to adjust for that. Their position is that Minnesota is better than most of the teams in our conference - that they would have a much better record in the A10, and our teams would be losers in the B1G. It's not fair - but it's (probably) not wrong.
Don't worry Choppin, next year when we have 5 6th year senior 1500 point scorers Mooney, PQ, Jabba, 4700, Loonardi and crew will schedule us up.
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I was looking more into some.of these teams. Let's not forget, Rhode Island beat Providence. And that was not one of their 4 bad OOC losses I was talking about. Not even close. St. Bona. beat Rutgers and we beat Wisky, yet the Big Ten might get 10 bids and A-10 one??? Also, we have a struggling A-10 team in VCU that beat LSU and, of course, Dayton. The more I look at it, the more I just don't understand why the A-10 is not getting more love this year. Not asking for anything close to what the power conferences get, but we might see 10 teams for one conference and 7 for a few others, while we might get one? It just doesn't add up.
Providence is playing excellent basketball right now. Scary good. There are teams in the Big East that could make a deep run in the tourney, and Providence is beating them.
I have no idea what happened to them earlier this season. The committee should not ignore that, though. It's the whole body of work.
But they are humans, and they like to see a strong finish.
Yeah, the A-10 went a perfectly respectable 3-4 against the Big 10 this year. And it wasn't like it was all our top teams against their bottom-tier teams. And none of the games were at home for the A-10 teams.
Richmond over Wisconsin (neutral)
Bona over Rutgers (neutral)
Mason over Nebraska (neutral)
Purdue over VCU (neutral) - VCU had shot to tie it at the buzzer
Maryland over Mason (away)
Maryland over URI (away)
Rutgers over UMass (away)
Exactly our league can't game the system like the big boys. They can more easily get buy games etc. too. It's different outside the P6. That's why this talk of a "perfect" schedule was so nonsensical. We had NCAA expectations. Why did we even hire any scheduling consultant, forget Lunardi for a sec. You don't need it anyway but u certainly don't do it when you're in a down or average year. The schedule is most important in years when good. And yet we still screwed it up. I talk to plenty of Spider fans offline that aren't on this board but do care and to a man they also think the Lunardi hire was idiotic and hurt us.
UCLA's profile is crazy. They are 6-6 in quad 1, but with all 6 wins coming in conference. Their OOC schedule strength is over 200. And they have a loss to #260 Cal St Fullerton.
They play USC tomorrow who we've been rooting against on the bubble for a while but I think we should probably pull for USC in that one.
I'm hoping USC over UCLA and Oregon over Stanford (which gives Oregon the PAC 12 title outright) prevents UCLA from having a "special" bonus...
I agree, Lunardi did nothing to help us, we did everything to line his pockets..Let's schedule our own games in the future again!
Good lord, nice follow up Burton.
Maybe try "Joe, if their resume doesn't quite convey how good they are, what could they have done differently? Could they have hired a scheduling consultant perhaps?"
Spiders finished 2nd in the 8th rated conference with 7 top 100 teams. The 1st place team is ranked 3 in the country. We have 9 true road wins and the best win of any bubble team (Wisc on neutral floor). All quad 1 wins are away from the Robins Center. We should be firmly in the NCAA Tournament.
Crazy!!! Just because no one beat Dsyton. IMO Dayton is the favorite to win it all.
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Also Tourney Ineligible:
All Big 12 teams that did not beat Kansas
All MWC teams that did not beat SDSU
All WCC teams that did not beat Gonzaga
All Big 12 teams that did not beat Kansas
All MWC teams that did not beat SDSU
All WCC teams that did not beat Gonzaga
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Davidson up 16 with about 5 minutes to go. Let's see if they make it back into the top 75. Byebye VCU...
Everyone is really coming around on Lunardi I like it. Hardt meanwhile is eating Pringles and scratching his head.
Ok I’m on my phone & can’t listen to that. What did he say? Guessing your quote in other thread is from this.
And he got softball questions from our local media like normal right? I mean yeah burton step up and ask him the obvious.
This hire was so damn rotten.
ESPN has updated their bubble watch and they have nothing good to say about us.
Richmond Spiders
With Richmond having locked down the No. 2 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament, the question is whether the Spiders can still earn an at-large bid. That answer might turn out to be no. Chris Mooney's group is projected as perhaps the third team outside the field by the mock brackets, and winning games on the way to the A-10 final against potential opponents like Davidson and Rhode Island is unlikely to change that state of affairs. Plus, as the No. 2 seed, UR gets no shot at Dayton until the title game. By then, of course, a win against the league's best team will deliver an automatic bid. An at-large berth looks unlikely, and Richmond's fondest hope is it won't need one.
Richmond Spiders
With Richmond having locked down the No. 2 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament, the question is whether the Spiders can still earn an at-large bid. That answer might turn out to be no. Chris Mooney's group is projected as perhaps the third team outside the field by the mock brackets, and winning games on the way to the A-10 final against potential opponents like Davidson and Rhode Island is unlikely to change that state of affairs. Plus, as the No. 2 seed, UR gets no shot at Dayton until the title game. By then, of course, a win against the league's best team will deliver an automatic bid. An at-large berth looks unlikely, and Richmond's fondest hope is it won't need one.
I'm know I'm biased, but there's no doubt to me watching us this season (and especially recently) that we are one of the best teams in the country and deserving of an at large bid. We are fun to watch, experienced, have great storylines all over the roster, balanced on offense and defense and most importantly we have proven we are are winners, the main purpose of sports. Do the right thing NCAA tournament committee!
Two other gems from Lunardi:
- "They're gonna have to....I think...beat Dayton" Well, duh. If we beat Dayton....we'll get a bid......I think. Since the question was "How does Richmond get in?" instead of his stammering, long-winded answer, he should have just said "win the A-10 tournament." Beating Dayton is irrelevant. The Bubble Watch article gospidersgo posted above properly addresses that.
- He said UNI is 25-6. They may well be, but as far as the committee is concerned they are 23-6. ESPN's article also uses 25-6.
ESPN has updated their bubble watch and they have nothing good to say about us.
Richmond Spiders
With Richmond having locked down the No. 2 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament, the question is whether the Spiders can still earn an at-large bid. That answer might turn out to be no. Chris Mooney's group is projected as perhaps the third team outside the field by the mock brackets, and winning games on the way to the A-10 final against potential opponents like Davidson and Rhode Island is unlikely to change that state of affairs. Plus, as the No. 2 seed, UR gets no shot at Dayton until the title game. By then, of course, a win against the league's best team will deliver an automatic bid. An at-large berth looks unlikely, and Richmond's fondest hope is it won't need one.
Ignore this. It's ESPN, Lunardi's network. This is so poorly described it has little basis in reality. At least someone told them we can't play Dayton to the finals. Which they didn't know a day ago so not sure what that says about their credibility. I mean sure it's possible we don't make it but to basically say we have to win the auto, give me a break. They are not looking close enough at our resume and other variables.
Using 25-6 aggravates me. Again ESPN. And for Lunardi to use it too speaking. So bad at his jobs. And he's going to come on Richmond radio too w that. Get lost Lunardi and take your sugar daddy Hardt with you.
Palm bracket...
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
We are last team in. Like others Tulsa is taking a spot right now so essentially 2nd to last in.
Smoothie King! That's how it is done. I'm just so proud of that SK gift card purchase, but had to try to make up for the overwhelming ineptitude in our AD dept.
By the way Palm does not have UNI in top 8 out, they r essentially off his bubble. Lunardi has them IN. But I've noticed something, Lunardi makes some changes after he sees Palm updates. Palm ain't perfect but he's been ahead of things over Lunardi and then Lunardi plays catch up. Seen it with number of teams status/seeds. Think he gets it with Rutgers too.
Arizona St/Xavier at 8/9 I don't like. Those teams should be farther back but hopefully just means there is much larger bubble than normal in play which I believe is true.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
We are last team in. Like others Tulsa is taking a spot right now so essentially 2nd to last in.
Smoothie King! That's how it is done. I'm just so proud of that SK gift card purchase, but had to try to make up for the overwhelming ineptitude in our AD dept.
By the way Palm does not have UNI in top 8 out, they r essentially off his bubble. Lunardi has them IN. But I've noticed something, Lunardi makes some changes after he sees Palm updates. Palm ain't perfect but he's been ahead of things over Lunardi and then Lunardi plays catch up. Seen it with number of teams status/seeds. Think he gets it with Rutgers too.
Arizona St/Xavier at 8/9 I don't like. Those teams should be farther back but hopefully just means there is much larger bubble than normal in play which I believe is true.
I would not be shocked if unofficially the committee counts them as a negative. They should. You can't tell me Utah St. and UNI can't get games. They were willing to play but decided not to run risk of losing to a D1 or taking a bad number on the schedule. That is what it should tell the committee.
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