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Bracketology update

Correct--NBC didn't get it right either. "Experts". If we can win tonight and then win at least another game in the A10 tourney getting us to the semifinals, I think we'd make a play-in game. Radford plays in semis today for their conference crown against the 5th seed Hampton. if they could win their conference tourney I think that would help our chances.
 
I think UR wins vs Duquesne and we are in. I wouldn't chance it by losing the first game of A10 tourney, but I think we will win that game as well and be in the field. Might be in the play-in game if we lose early in A10 tourney or might be able to avoid that game if we win an A10 tourney game.
 
Basically because our league can't get the S*** together when it comes to scheduling (and we bare some of the responsibility hiring a consultant to make ours probably worse) we are paying the price. It's the same price we paid as when we've gone to the NIT previously or Rhode Island or other teams in A10 paid when they just missed repeatedly. We just don't learn I guess. This year... anybody pay attention to the Big East SOS noncon and they way their teams skyrocketed in the metrics after conference play?

The Big East has long gamed the system all the way back when it was just Syracuse et al playing nobodies and upping their RPI with gaudy, empty W-L totals. Turns out it still works. You still beat the system by bringing everybody into conference play with great records just schedule teams a little worse to much worse than you traditionally and pile up wins. Then when you play each other your SOS skyrockets. A fellow spider shared those Big East numbers on a text with me. The jumps were insane. So, I guess you don't have to worry too much about Quad 1, Quad 2 wins because you can artificially create them in conference play?. Meanwhile the A10 has done the opposite. Why? Many of our teams with good noncon w-l like VCU (ugh), and Duquesne lost to teams with middling to bad non con records like the Bonnies and Davidson. And just the opposite results everybody goes down. The formula is easy (credit to Duquesne specifically who lived it for once and even got top 25 votes because of it) beat almost everybody noncon BUT it only works if everybody does it. Make schedules that everybody pummels. If Fordham and LaSalle can only play the MEAC so be it. I thought when they changed the criteria this CHEAT was supposed to go away but it appears no.

I'm of the opinion that on the court there is probably little that separates teams 25 to 75 (that's probably even wider this year). Objectively the committee has probably never gotten it absolutely right. If you are not a top 10 top 20 team the only thing that matters is gaming your resume. Some leagues have it figured out and others like the A10 seem to never get it right.
 
Strong post, Vault. I totally agree with you. Richmond has often entered conference play already on their heels due to bad non-conference losses. Heck, look at this year -- we barely made it past St. Frances and were fortunate to beat Vandy.

To get the entire A-10 to have a successful OOC record would be a win for the league but is obviously easier said than done.
 
Sometimes your team just sucks. Fordham actually played one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the country and still could only go 6-6.

But look at St. Joe's...played one of the toughest schedules and went 4-9 against it. They absolutely should have lightened it up. They're still pretty awful, so maybe they still would have been Fordham-bad against a super easy schedule, but maybe not.
 
I think UR wins vs Duquesne and we are in. I wouldn't chance it by losing the first game of A10 tourney, but I think we will win that game as well and be in the field. Might be in the play-in game if we lose early in A10 tourney or might be able to avoid that game if we win an A10 tourney game.
This sounds like it should be enough, but in reality, we also have to win at least that first A10 game, because we can't lose to the 7th or 10th seed in our own league. You know that will be used as a fatal flaw against us. And if we win that game but lose to Rhode Island, does that tilt things in their favor over us? I almost feel like we need to make it to the finals one way or another UNLESS Rhody loses its first game and we win ours. But in that case, we also need Dayton to win the tournament.
 
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According to this our only chance for a bid to the dance goes through Dayton .......
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28577356

Richmond Spiders

Chris Mooney's team has methodically worked its way through the entirety of February and, now, the early stages of March winning Quad 2 and, mostly, Quad 3 games and biding its time. The Spiders have won eight of their past nine, and if they can repeat that pattern one more time at Duquesne, they'll have a 24-7 record and, probably, a NET ranking in the 40s. Richmond is generally presumed to be perched just outside the field of 68, and, needless to say, the only game in town when it comes to improving profiles in the Atlantic 10 is a game against Dayton. If that materializes for UR before the A-10 tournament title game, the Spiders will have a tailor-made opportunity to earn an at-large bid. If it comes in the title game, well, an automatic bid's just as good as an at-large.
This is such bull shit. So, a team like Arkansas or Indiana can get in with 13-14 losses, just by beating a couple other mediocre teams with 13-14 losses. We on the other hand have to play our way in by beating a 1 seed in the tournament, despite having only 8 losses and playing in one of Top 10 leagues in the country, finishing second in the that league, one of the best road records in the country, and a win over the potential number 1 seed in the universally accepted best league in the country.
 
This sounds like it should be enough, but in reality, we also have to win at least that first A10 game, because we can't lose to the 7th or 10th seed in our own league. You know that will be used as a fatal flaw against us. And if we win that game but lose to Rhode Island, does that tilt things in their favor over us? I almost feel like we need to make it to the finals one way or another UNLESS Rhody loses its first game and we win ours. But in that case, we also need Dayton to win the tournament.
We can't lose the first game in the A-10 tournament and expect a bid. And I honestly think we are going to have win the semi final game (hopefully against Rhody) to solidify it.
 
ESPN needs to update. Wouldn't our only chance of meeting Dayton be in the finals?

Yep that stood out. "If that materializes for UR before the A-10 tournament title game"....LOL it's impossible to materialize. But I've been saying this for years...never trust ESPN website. Riddled with errors imo, and that's across most sports. You'd think the leader in the industry would be better.

Also this guy might work for Lunardi.
 
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Palm has us in the last 4 in along with Texas Tech, Texas, and Utah St. His last 4 out are Miss. St., Rutgers, Cincy, and Wichita St. He has our OOC SOS at 95, which is 3rd best out of these 8 teams.
 
And to add to what VT said, Palm moved us up a couple spots last night to the best of the Last 4 In.

However, I really question him having Rutgers as First 4 Out. Not saying I think they should be safe because they can't win a road game but I can't see the committee leaving them out with the amount of "quality" home wins they have.
 
From ESPN bubble watch following last night's game. To me this is where NET is a problem and hopefully the committee doesn't rely on it too much. This was a battle between two bubble teams and a win Wichita State really needed, and now that they lost it's just a "missed chance" and "isn't damaging" because the game was quad 1.
Legit. They are saying the same thing about Stanford's loss. I think it's more of a Quad problem than a NET problem - most ranking systems are going to say a middling P6 team is better than a middling non-P6 team (and they're not necessarily wrong), but wins have to be more important.
 
Yep that stood out. "If that materializes for UR before the A-10 tournament title game"....LOL it's impossible to materialize. But I've been saying this for years...never trust ESPN website. Riddled with errors imo, and that's across most sports. You'd think the leader in the industry would be better.

Also this guy might work for Lunardi.
They've had that same statement up for a while - we clinched the double-bye (away from Dayton) last weekend, did we not?
 
This is such bull shit. So, a team like Arkansas or Indiana can get in with 13-14 losses, just by beating a couple other mediocre teams with 13-14 losses. We on the other hand have to play our way in by beating a 1 seed in the tournament, despite having only 8 losses and playing in one of Top 10 leagues in the country, finishing second in the that league, one of the best road records in the country, and a win over the potential number 1 seed in the universally accepted best league in the country.
Exactly. I mean Dayton is ranked #3 in the country by beating all the same teams we have. Obvioulsy they have more wins, and yes they won some OOC games, but the majority of their wins are in the A10. So it's good enough for them but not for us? We also have a better win than Dayton has this season.
 
However, I really question him having Rutgers as First 4 Out. Not saying I think they should be safe because they can't win a road game but I can't see the committee leaving them out with the amount of "quality" home wins they have.

Rutgers would have been Up the Creek - (classic Tim Matheson flick) - without beating Maryland other day. RAC is a hard place to play I've been there but they have 1 road win all season. I think someone posted no team has made NCAA without at least 3 road wins. and that 1 road win came at Nebraska who may be only p6 team worse than Vandy.

Rutgers gets 1 more shot at Purdue, let's hope they lose, they'll be very sketchy imo.
 
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Rutgers would have been Up the Creek - (classic Tim Matheson flick) - without beating Maryland other day. RAC is a hard place to play I've been there but they have 1 road win all season. I think someone posted no team has made NCAA without at least 3 road wins. and that 1 road win came at Nebraska who may be only p6 team worse than Vandy.

Rutgers gets 1 more shot at Purdue, let's hope they lose, they'll be very sketchy imo.
Palm has been catching a lot of flack from Rutgers fans, and he has been citing that 3 road wins statistic in response. I think it might actually be 3 wins away from home, so he's been saying they'll need victories in the B1G tourney.
 
Palm has been catching a lot of flack from Rutgers fans, and he has been citing that 3 road wins statistic in response. I think it might actually be 3 wins away from home, so he's been saying they'll need victories in the B1G tourney.

I think I remember seeing it's for the past 25 years, not in NCAA history. But to only win 1 game away from home all year proves to me you aren't suited for the NCAA tournament, where all games are away from home.
 
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From article...

Editor's note: The NCAA tournament Bubble Watch has been updated through Thursday's games.

Great work ESPN
Yes, they have updated records and list of games completed, but neglect to mention...
"We only update our evaluations twice a week without telling our readers/viewers..."
 
Basically because our league can't get the S*** together when it comes to scheduling (and we bare some of the responsibility hiring a consultant to make ours probably worse) we are paying the price. It's the same price we paid as when we've gone to the NIT previously or Rhode Island or other teams in A10 paid when they just missed repeatedly. We just don't learn I guess. This year... anybody pay attention to the Big East SOS noncon and they way their teams skyrocketed in the metrics after conference play?

The Big East has long gamed the system all the way back when it was just Syracuse et al playing nobodies and upping their RPI with gaudy, empty W-L totals. Turns out it still works. You still beat the system by bringing everybody into conference play with great records just schedule teams a little worse to much worse than you traditionally and pile up wins. Then when you play each other your SOS skyrockets. A fellow spider shared those Big East numbers on a text with me. The jumps were insane. So, I guess you don't have to worry too much about Quad 1, Quad 2 wins because you can artificially create them in conference play?. Meanwhile the A10 has done the opposite. Why? Many of our teams with good noncon w-l like VCU (ugh), and Duquesne lost to teams with middling to bad non con records like the Bonnies and Davidson. And just the opposite results everybody goes down. The formula is easy (credit to Duquesne specifically who lived it for once and even got top 25 votes because of it) beat almost everybody noncon BUT it only works if everybody does it. Make schedules that everybody pummels. If Fordham and LaSalle can only play the MEAC so be it. I thought when they changed the criteria this CHEAT was supposed to go away but it appears no.

I'm of the opinion that on the court there is probably little that separates teams 25 to 75 (that's probably even wider this year). Objectively the committee has probably never gotten it absolutely right. If you are not a top 10 top 20 team the only thing that matters is gaming your resume. Some leagues have it figured out and others like the A10 seem to never get it right.

I don't think mid-majors have the luxury to schedule all weak teams, and then hope you fool the committee. Mid-majors are mid-majors. You already start at a disadvantage, and then you have to earn it. The committee will not reward our conference for playing a bunch of weak teams out of conference. They just won't.
 
I think I remember seeing it's for the past 25 years, not in NCAA history. But to only win 1 game away from home all year proves to me you aren't suited for the NCAA tournament, where all games are away from home.

Right now, Rutgers' one road win is a big negative. It has to be. The committee says it specifically looks at road record as one of their factors. They need a lot of positives to overcome that. It would be like having an OOC SOS over 300. You can maybe still get in, but you better have a lot of positives. Rutgers has some positives, but I'm not sure it's enough to overcome having only one road win. Let's hope they don't gain any more this weekend or in their tourney.
 
And, Providence had some terrible out of conference losses, but now is doing well in the Big East. That is very telling to me.
Agree completely on them too. Four really ugly or at least semi-ugly losses and then magically they get healthy against a bunch of "great" teams? Maybe they truly got that much better, but more likely the rest of their league is vastly overrated.
 
But, the other teams have a chance to recover and make up for their loss. Utah St. would not have had a chance to make up for a loss. It is ideal to have bubble teams we are competing with lose their opening tourney game, so I think they were the team we wanted to lose more than anyone. Let's get rid of as many bubble teams as possible, right?

I agree with you VT. Just the conditional I set up was one of these teams had to win out of the 4 bubble teams playing and I personally prefer Utah State helping their resume than any of the others. If we miss the tournament because of a crummy P6 team I will be irate but if we miss out to a mid Major I’ll be nowhere near as upset
 
Agree completely on them too. Four really ugly or at least semi-ugly losses and then magically they get healthy against a bunch of "great" teams? Maybe they truly got that much better, but more likely the rest of their league is vastly overrated.

Yes - same ridiculous dynamic of teams with losing in conference records projected to be in the dance. Providence is 11-6 in conference and 4th in Big East but projection has seven Big East teams projected in. So Providence "rack ups" in conference wins over other projected NCAA teams which "boosts" their ranking?
 
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i


Wichita State Shockers

Losing at Memphis 68-60 on Thursday represents a missed chance for a Wichita State team that entered the contest straddling the line between "in" and "out." A Quad 1 loss isn't damaging, naturally, it's just that the win would have pushed the Shockers that much closer to a safe spot. Instead, Gregg Marshall's team will live in suspense a little longer. Wichita State finishes the season at home against Tulsa, and a Quad 2 win there won't allow the Shockers any degree of confidence that their work is done. Their work will continue at the American tournament, where the only available Quad 1 wins will be games against Houston or possibly Cincinnati.


From ESPN bubble watch following last night's game. To me this is where NET is a problem and hopefully the committee doesn't rely on it too much. This was a battle between two bubble teams and a win Wichita State really needed, and now that they lost it's just a "missed chance" and "isn't damaging" because the game was quad 1.
Yea, never a bad loss.
 
According to this our only chance for a bid to the dance goes through Dayton .......
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28577356

Richmond Spiders

Chris Mooney's team has methodically worked its way through the entirety of February and, now, the early stages of March winning Quad 2 and, mostly, Quad 3 games and biding its time. The Spiders have won eight of their past nine, and if they can repeat that pattern one more time at Duquesne, they'll have a 24-7 record and, probably, a NET ranking in the 40s. Richmond is generally presumed to be perched just outside the field of 68, and, needless to say, the only game in town when it comes to improving profiles in the Atlantic 10 is a game against Dayton. If that materializes for UR before the A-10 tournament title game, the Spiders will have a tailor-made opportunity to earn an at-large bid. If it comes in the title game, well, an automatic bid's just as good as an at-large.
I dont even understand what they are saying.

Crazy, you can go 10-1 against Quad 2 and 3 teams (which is BS is itself) and not move up one spot. And a P6 team can win one Q1 game while losing 2 other games, and bang, their in the dance,
 
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Fatherspider-- back off you have no right to tell someone to leave the board. Plydogg brings much to the discussion, if you don't agree with him or don't want to read it put him on ignore.
Relax. It was a joke. Sorry Plydogg. Your input is appreciated.
 
I agree with you VT. Just the conditional I set up was one of these teams had to win out of the 4 bubble teams playing and I personally prefer Utah State helping their resume than any of the others. If we miss the tournament because of a crummy P6 team I will be irate but if we miss out to a mid Major I’ll be nowhere near as upset

And, the interesting thing is we don't know where the committee has Utah State right now. They might have them above the three teams that lost last night, meaning you would be correct earlier in wanting Utah State to be the team that wins. I doubt they would have them that high, but we just don't know.

Whether we agree or disagree on topics, what I do know is being 23-7 right now is a heck of a lot more fun for all of us than being 12-18, like we were at this time last year.
 
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