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Bracketology update

ChoppinBroccoli said:
I tried to warn you last night. :) Even mention a name as part of a joke and they'll edit it out.

Their rules trump our sense of humor. It really berns me up but I'll just be biden my time until the mad season passes.
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Yeah. No fan of political talk here either but honestly never imagined it could be taken as such. Funny is funny. The best of twitter. It was a NIT post related to Spiders. Haven’t we all been talking how these garbage big state schools should be in NIT?

What’s ironic is coronavirus is one of the most hotly contested political topics right now and we have a whole thread about it with same ppl commenting on it that took issue a very casual tweet. Remove that thread now! It’s too dangerous.
 
VT4700 said:
Back to the brackets, what is crazy is we are seeing 10 big ten teams in brackets and one Atlantic 10 team. Yet, the second-place Atlantic 10 team beat the big ten's possible one seed Wisconsin. That at least has to make the committee take a second look at us if this is how their bracket might look.
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Agree & I think we r in better shape than we’re getting credit for. Work to do but beyond our weaker than it should have been OOC our metrics r good & we have lot going for us.
 
GKiller said:
Agree & I think we r in better shape than we’re getting credit for
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Just a quick look at KenPoms offensive and defensive ratings, we are very well balanced - #52 offense, #66 defense. A lot of the other bubble teams seem to be highly rated in one, but not the other (Stanford #119/#6, LSU #3/#192, Miss St #19/#133, Texas #148/#15, Wichita #120/#8). Hopefully the committee will reward us being a well rounded team.

That plus our great road/neutral record and second place finish in a respected conference are big positives.

Of course the only bracket that will end up mattering is the committee's and I think barring a bad finish down the stretch we have plenty of things working in our favor for them to look at.
 
I am not a Lunardi fan and think the idea of hiring him as a scheduling consultant was absurd. However, he has been a big proponent of having to finish .500 in conference to be eligible for an at-large bid. He has proposed including conference tournament games in that number (which can be good or bad). So as much as I don't like him, I think he is making his bracket projections on what he thinks the committee WILL do, not what they SHOULD do. I hope he is as bad at predicting the tournament this year as he was at helping Mooney & Co schedule this year.
 
gospidersgo said:
Just a quick look at KenPoms offensive and defensive ratings, we are very well balanced - #52 offense, #66 defense. A lot of the other bubble teams seem to be highly rated in one, but not the other (Stanford #119/#6, LSU #3/#192, Miss St #19/#133, Texas #148/#15, Wichita #120/#8). Hopefully the committee will reward us being a well rounded team.

That plus our great road/neutral record and second place finish in a respected conference are big positives.

Of course the only bracket that will end up mattering is the committee's and I think barring a bad finish down the stretch we have plenty of things working in our favor for them to look at.
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I get it that these are good numbers but the idea that the committee is looking at such things, if true, is absurd. And I will even go as far as to say any ranking system that uses such info to rank teams is plain stupid as well. Its about the 5 R's of selection sunday... Resume, Resume Resume, Resume and of course you can't forget... Resume. Why any stats play into this besides wins and losses is ridiculous.

Maybe we will get a bid because we have improved so much in free throw shooting, or because Gilly is the nation's leader in steals.
 
fatherspider said:
I get it that these are good numbers but the idea that the committee is looking at such things, if true, is absurd. And I will even go as far as to say any ranking system that uses such info to rank teams is plain stupid as well. Its about the 5 R's of selection sunday... Resume, Resume Resume, Resume and of course you can't forget... Resume. Why any stats play into this besides wins and losses is ridiculous.

Maybe we will get a bid because we have improved so much in free throw shooting, or because Gilly is the nation's leader in steals.
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But, they really do use kenpom and some other metrics. I'm not a big stat guy either, but if they use all these stats, we might as well be good at it a lot of them.
 
fatherspider said:
Why any stats play into this besides wins and losses is ridiculous.
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Then Liberty should be a 2 seed.

I know I'm a broken record, but ranking and selecting are two very different things. The rankings might even play more into the committee's second job (seeding) than it does their first.

If you are looking for a ranking system that is well-correlated to the NCAA field, you're going to be waiting forever. The closest thing to it would probably be a composite like Bracket Matrix.
 
URWilk110 said:
I am not a Lunardi fan and think the idea of hiring him as a scheduling consultant was absurd. However, he has been a big proponent of having to finish .500 in conference to be eligible for an at-large bid. He has proposed including conference tournament games in that number (which can be good or bad). So as much as I don't like him, I think he is making his bracket projections on what he thinks the committee WILL do, not what they SHOULD do. I hope he is as bad at predicting the tournament this year as he was at helping Mooney & Co schedule this year.
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Always been what WILL do same w Palm & I assume these others but can speak to the 2 main ones.

I like the .500 rule too it’s not like came up with that proposition but he has gotten behind it to his credit.

Good news is he’s not very good at the bracketology thing overall historically. Last year I think I’ve heard ranked 55th out of 90 or so and that includes people like Suzy’s Wordpress bracket. And that’s with him also getting a little birdie in his ear 10 mins before show to make a quick last minute change that remarkably is accurate.

But all good enough for our 15 year experienced coach and 20 year+ experienced AD to get on board with his scheduling prowess.

It’s ok Hardt I’ve heard has commented within the confines of Robins Center that “well at least he has Iowa in”. I presume jokingly. Leave the jokes to this board ok Mr. Meat & Potatoes.
 
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GKiller said:
wait a sec...my post last night was deleted?...and without explanation. Reposting since I believe had to be a mistake. I mean can we have a sense of humor. This was not a political post at all, just had a politician in it. It's a post mocking our competition...

View embedded media
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Even I, who hates all political commentary, found that non-political and hilarious.
 
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Wichita St (projected 11 seed) is losing by 5 to Memphis at half.

Oregon St leads Stanford (projected by most as 11 seed or just out) by 2 at half.

Arizona St (projected 9 seed) leads Washington by 4 at half.
 
And, Utah St.( last 4 in Palm, 1st 4 out Lunardi) is tied with New Mexico at the half. Since this is in their tourney, Utah St. could be done if they lose.
 
Didn't see the posts above mine. Looks like we all have our eye on that one.
 
gospidersgo said:
We are due for a night of helpful bubble results.
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Yep. After what seemed like about 2 weeks of bad result after bad result, we are 3-3 so far tonight, with a chance to go 4-4 if New Mex, up 7 inside of 7 minutes left, can beat Utah St.
 
fatherspider said:
F. Them
Are u kidding us????
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I'm not sure what else you want me to say here. Three bubble teams lost and one won. Of all four of those bubble teams only one truly is a good team and that team won. I said if one of those 4 teams had to win I'm glad Utah State was the one that won.

Utah State plays beautiful basketball, no reason for you to overreact in this way to a literal hypothetical that I raised and answered.
 
plydogg said:
Arizona State goes down!! 3 for 3!!! Put us in now Lunardi!!! I DARE YOU!!!
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Should have double dog dared him. We're the 2nd team out now.

BUT...

-Wichita State dropped from Last 4 in to 4th team out
-Utah State (keep in mind they won) dropped from Last 4 in to 1st team out (what???)
-Arizona State dropped from a 10 seed to last 4 in
-Stanford (keep in mind they lost) moved from Last 4 in to first 4 byes (again...what???)


EDIT: This bracket is available now (11:15pm pacific) and says 3/6/2020. So I'm not sure if Lunardi took into account today's games or already had it completed before them? The Wichita State and ASU games would indicate he did but the Utah State and Stanford changes go against their results and are truly mind-boggling. Hoping in the morning some of you have similar reactions....imagine us losing tomorrow and dropping to next 4 out...just happened to Utah State...
 
plydogg said:
I'm not sure what else you want me to say here. Three bubble teams lost and one won. Of all four of those bubble teams only one truly is a good team and that team won. I said if one of those 4 teams had to win I'm glad Utah State was the one that won.

Utah State plays beautiful basketball, no reason for you to overreact in this way to a literal hypothetical that I raised and answered.
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Give me a brake. Beautiful basketball???? We are challenging them for an at large and they have 9 losses but hey they play beautiful basketball so lets let them dance. Please go back into retirement Plydogg
 
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fatherspider said:
Give me a brake. Beautiful basketball???? We are challenging them for an at large and they have 9 losses but hey they play beautiful basketball so lets let them dance. Please go back into retirement Plydogg
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This is what you just did: “Which do you prefer A or B?” “Wow I cant believe you chose one of the options what is wrong with you?”

Edit: can you just stop making the situation something it’s not. You’re twisting my words to say something I clearly did not say and for no apparent reason.

And I’ve spent nearly 6 hours researching and writing two game previews this week. Saying I should leave because you misunderstood the hypothetical seems a bit dramatic
 
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Wichita State Shockers

Losing at Memphis 68-60 on Thursday represents a missed chance for a Wichita State team that entered the contest straddling the line between "in" and "out." A Quad 1 loss isn't damaging, naturally, it's just that the win would have pushed the Shockers that much closer to a safe spot. Instead, Gregg Marshall's team will live in suspense a little longer. Wichita State finishes the season at home against Tulsa, and a Quad 2 win there won't allow the Shockers any degree of confidence that their work is done. Their work will continue at the American tournament, where the only available Quad 1 wins will be games against Houston or possibly Cincinnati.


From ESPN bubble watch following last night's game. To me this is where NET is a problem and hopefully the committee doesn't rely on it too much. This was a battle between two bubble teams and a win Wichita State really needed, and now that they lost it's just a "missed chance" and "isn't damaging" because the game was quad 1.
 
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plydogg said:
I will say that of all these teams Utah State is the one I think is most deserving. If one of them had to win I’m glad it was them
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But, the other teams have a chance to recover and make up for their loss. Utah St. would not have had a chance to make up for a loss. It is ideal to have bubble teams we are competing with lose their opening tourney game, so I think they were the team we wanted to lose more than anyone. Let's get rid of as many bubble teams as possible, right?
 
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fatherspider said:
Give me a brake. Beautiful basketball???? We are challenging them for an at large and they have 9 losses but hey they play beautiful basketball so lets let them dance. Please go back into retirement Plydogg
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Fatherspider-- back off you have no right to tell someone to leave the board. Plydogg brings much to the discussion, if you don't agree with him or don't want to read it put him on ignore.
 
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plydogg said:
I'm not sure what else you want me to say here. Three bubble teams lost and one won. Of all four of those bubble teams only one truly is a good team and that team won. I said if one of those 4 teams had to win I'm glad Utah State was the one that won.

Utah State plays beautiful basketball, no reason for you to overreact in this way to a literal hypothetical that I raised and answered.
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I would rather see Utah State in than another mediocre Pac-12 team, too. From a "college basketball fan" perspective, that's better for the game.
But from the Spiders' perspective, a Utah State loss was by far the most desirable of the four. The other three losses were nice, but didn't knock any of them off the bubble, plus they each have at least two more games to make impressions.
Those impressions go both ways, too. Had Utah State lost and one of the other three won, 1) Utah State is eliminated and 2) the team that won could still get destroyed in their next two games.
 
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According to this our only chance for a bid to the dance goes through Dayton .......
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28577356

Richmond Spiders

Chris Mooney's team has methodically worked its way through the entirety of February and, now, the early stages of March winning Quad 2 and, mostly, Quad 3 games and biding its time. The Spiders have won eight of their past nine, and if they can repeat that pattern one more time at Duquesne, they'll have a 24-7 record and, probably, a NET ranking in the 40s. Richmond is generally presumed to be perched just outside the field of 68, and, needless to say, the only game in town when it comes to improving profiles in the Atlantic 10 is a game against Dayton. If that materializes for UR before the A-10 tournament title game, the Spiders will have a tailor-made opportunity to earn an at-large bid. If it comes in the title game, well, an automatic bid's just as good as an at-large.
 
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