You can expect some "stinker" losses, but they must be on the road. Right now if we lost to Davidson, LaSalle, or GW - those would qualify probably, but when they are on the road - you can survive them as long as you take care of business at home.
2019 Opponent Thread
- Thread starter plydogg
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We could lose one to VCU, lose to Duquesne, and have three more top 150 losses. Then, we would have no losses outside the top 150. I think earlier you or someone said Davidson had no bad losses last year, but they had four outside the top 150, including one above 200.
We could have scheduled a Q2 game or two. Right now our OOC Q2 record is 0-0, and it may well stay there. Sure, some of that is just unlucky - but I believe many of us were predicting triple-digit rankings for the majority of our OOC. Generally speaking, those Q2 teams will be the teams you're competing for at-large spots with. Yes, you still need to win those games.
Kind of like Belmont sweeping a home and home with Lipscomb last year. Gave them a Q1 and Q2 which may have been the difference between NCAA and NIT.
Just Win Baby! That is the message the rest of the way. Especially vs VCU, VCU and Dayton. Two our of three would be great!
at this moment at NET 45 u can say that. but our OOC still has half or more of their seasons left. that is why we continue to monitor how our OOC is doing. because it affects how many losses u can take IC. If we win at a really high clip rest of way I'm not worried but if we get too many losses I'm definitely worried about our non conf SOS. OOC and IC r connected & will continue to be.
yes we're definitely in the discussion. We should be. I don't put on IC rest of way, but if u want to fine. In some ways I guess that is easiest. Time to deliver Mooney. 15 year coach, 8 straight w no NCAA, great team in 9th, net 22 after 11 games, all u gotta do is win enough in A10, it would be a huge letdown if we don't make it.
I don't disagree, it just depends on how well in any given year you expect to do in the conference or want to have to achieve in the conference to get a bid. Given our OOC schedule and results - I would say we need to win at least 12-13 games in the A10 regular season to be in the mix. That gives us a real shot heading into A10 tourney time. I think if we win 10-11 games, we might not need to win the A10 tourney - but may need to make the finals and some help from other bubble teams.
If we had a tougher OOC schedule and won more BIG games (if they were on the schedule) maybe we could win 11-12 games in the league and feel good.
And I do think we can win 12+ games in the league this year. Not sure we will, but this team is certainly capable of it.
I think we better get to 13-5 IC and beat some of the top teams. If we lose a game in the conference tourney, having 9 losses would look so much better than 10, and 24-9 or 25-9, if we lose in the finals, is a heck of a lot better than 23-10 or 24-10, even though it is only a one game difference.
Trap said if we won 10-11 conference games, we might not even need to win the A10 tourney. I was saying - clumsily - that if we finished 10-8 A10, 20-11 overall, we have no shot at the NCAA at large. I don't think we're even in the mix at 11-7, 21-10.
I didn't say Davidson would be good - they have already blown that chance with the terrible OOC results. But I do think they will be more competitive and better in the A10. And yes - if we lost to them on next Tuesday, that would be a bad loss because at that time I would expect Davidson to only be 7-8, 1-2 in the league as I expect them to beat St. Joes on Saturday. But looking at their next 5 games - I could see them going 4-1 over that span. I agree they have not looked good - 4 of next 5 at home with road game at terrible Fordham. I think we can beat them as our guards can match up with Grady - but they get St. Louis and Mason at home. We need Davidson to be good for our NCAA resume to possibly get into Quad 2 territory. SO we should be rooting for them to go 4-1 coming up. It only helps us.
St. Joes - W
UR - L
@ Fordham - W
St. Louis - W
Mason - W
I said if we won 10-11 games, we might have a shot, but would likely need to make the A10 finals AND need some help from other bubble teams to perform poorly. In my mind - if we win 10-11, we are on outside looking in and safest bet would to entry would be with the A10 tourney.
Win 12-13 games in the A10 - we may still need to make the A10 finals, just might depend on who are losses are to and did we beat VCU and Dayton to bolster our resume.
No, I know what you were saying, I'm saying I think he had a typo. He had initially suggested 12-13 wins in conference gets it done, then said 10-11 gets it done. I think he meant 10-11 "won't" get it done.
Speculating...
And I thought you were saying Broc’s “no shot” had a typo. One that would mean obvious...
Per NET:
Vanderbilt is dead last in SEC
Boston College is dead last in ACC
Radford is off to a great 3-0 start in the Big South and have climbed all the way to....oh, wait, never mind, they are falling.
Alabama is #8 in the SEC
Our tourney opponents are #1 in the SEC and #4 in the Big Ten.
Vanderbilt is dead last in SEC
Boston College is dead last in ACC
Radford is off to a great 3-0 start in the Big South and have climbed all the way to....oh, wait, never mind, they are falling.
Alabama is #8 in the SEC
Our tourney opponents are #1 in the SEC and #4 in the Big Ten.
I think, Radford has climbed three times in 2020.
1/2, 1/6, 1/10 - Days they didn't actually play...
NET/Team/Quad1&2-Wins/Quad1&2-Losses/Quad3&4-Losses
8/Dayton/3/2/0
43/VCU/2/4/0
47/Duquesne/2/0/2
48/SLU/3/3/0
63/UR/2/3/1
67/URI/2/4/1
112/Davidson/1/6/2
127/UMass/0/8/1
140/GMU/0/3/1
141/SBU/1/0/5
179/LaSalle/0/3/3
221/SJU/1/8/5
244/GW/0/4/3
8/Dayton/3/2/0
43/VCU/2/4/0
47/Duquesne/2/0/2
48/SLU/3/3/0
63/UR/2/3/1
67/URI/2/4/1
112/Davidson/1/6/2
127/UMass/0/8/1
140/GMU/0/3/1
141/SBU/1/0/5
179/LaSalle/0/3/3
221/SJU/1/8/5
244/GW/0/4/3
Nesmith is out for Vandy likely rest of year. Over/under on SEC wins I'd say is 2.5. Anything over zero is an improvement.
Nothing to see here. Vandy and Boston College are name P5 schools....we good.
Since Jan 1 there have been 18 upsets with unranked teams beating ranked teams. The mediocre P6 teams have opportunities to beat ranked teams every night, which is the case every year. However, this year there seem to be many more upsets. When we only have one ranked team to beat we are at a big disadvantage in building a tournament resume. As was mentioned on another thread BC and Vandy are starting their collapse as expected. Our OOC schedule will hurt us if somehow we end up on the bubble.
Assuming we would have had the same record by playing better competition. I think as a mid major, you can only afford so many losses, no matter what kind of schedule you play. I think our Wisconsin win could end up being a better win than a lot of bubble teams end with. How good would an Alabama win look now? A win against them, and I doubt anyone is questioning our schedule. We played 3 quad 1s OOC, and beat 1. I don't think we wanted any more. We played a lot of home games, so unless you wanted more road games, getting some quad 1 and 2 home games is hard for a mid major. More road games, you might say? Well, if you do that, you need to beat them (see Alabama). The schedule was fine, and has put us in a very good position. If we win enough IC, we will likely get a bid. If we don't, we can blame our IC games, not out OOC games.
The one thing that in hind sight would look better (and no idea if it could have been changed) is @ W&M instead of @ Hampton...assuming a win.
I'm pretty happy with the schedule, even though it was nowhere close to what was hyped by Mooney and Bob Black. I don't think we needed any more Quad 1 games, especially since we got Auburn instead of New Mexico in Brooklyn.
However, there is a big hole in our Quad 2. Those are the types of teams (Top 75 Home, Top 135 Away) a bid-worthy team should be willing to play and able to beat. After all, those are the teams you're competing with for bids! Just a small upgrade over literally the worst teams in the ACC and SEC. Maybe a top SoCon team instead of two Big South teams, including one of the worst teams in the nation (maybe we just wanted revenge).
It's a minor quibble. Just win.
However, there is a big hole in our Quad 2. Those are the types of teams (Top 75 Home, Top 135 Away) a bid-worthy team should be willing to play and able to beat. After all, those are the teams you're competing with for bids! Just a small upgrade over literally the worst teams in the ACC and SEC. Maybe a top SoCon team instead of two Big South teams, including one of the worst teams in the nation (maybe we just wanted revenge).
It's a minor quibble. Just win.
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