2019 Opponent Thread
- Thread starter plydogg
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Were they paraphrasing Lincoln? Or someone else?
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/12/11/cannot-fool/
You are correct urmite, I changed it to suite this thread...Thanks for correction. We are telling our age, lol.
when I say just win, I'm not saying I feel scheduling doesn't matter. I'm saying scheduling for this season is in the past. there's no point harping on it. all we can do is take care or what we can control. win a lot of games.
we'll never know if a tougher schedule would have helped or hurt. can't assume we'd win the tougher games and can't assume we wouldn't. it's easy to sit at 10-1 and say we could have scheduled harder, but very few people here were predicting 20 wins for this season a month ago.
plus, I think you're missing something based on what the NET is currently showing. NET math has us at 22 with this schedule. if you're stuck on Mooney's comment about the toughest schedule ... sure. he was wrong. but if NET matters, it appears the schedule was more brilliant than tough. none of us could have hoped for a 22 NET at this point.
we'll never know if a tougher schedule would have helped or hurt. can't assume we'd win the tougher games and can't assume we wouldn't. it's easy to sit at 10-1 and say we could have scheduled harder, but very few people here were predicting 20 wins for this season a month ago.
plus, I think you're missing something based on what the NET is currently showing. NET math has us at 22 with this schedule. if you're stuck on Mooney's comment about the toughest schedule ... sure. he was wrong. but if NET matters, it appears the schedule was more brilliant than tough. none of us could have hoped for a 22 NET at this point.
Mooney should have never made that statement about the toughest OOC, it was something he could never deliver upon. That said, I think we put together just about the perfect OOC schedule for this team and our record certainly validates that.
Except when we start to lose games (which will happen in conference), our NET falls, and we have maybe 1 decent OOC win on our resume to fall back on if we are lucky enough to be on the bubble on selection Sunday. Then the schedule won't look so great.
Our NET will likely fall dramatically only if we lose to bad teams in conference, just like anyone's would whether they played a super tough out of conference schedule or not. Just like it would be lower right now had we lost to bad teams out of conference. If we lose to bad teams in conference, you can't blame our out of conference schedule on that, can you?
Our schedule has put us in a great position right now. I don't know how anyone could ask for more than 10-1 with a NET of 23 right now. And, even better is the fact that other A-10 teams have some good NETs also. Add it all up, and we should be in real good shape if we do well IC and beat enough of the top 5 or 6 teams. If we don't do that, that is our own fault, not our OOC schedule's fault.
Our schedule has put us in a great position right now. I don't know how anyone could ask for more than 10-1 with a NET of 23 right now. And, even better is the fact that other A-10 teams have some good NETs also. Add it all up, and we should be in real good shape if we do well IC and beat enough of the top 5 or 6 teams. If we don't do that, that is our own fault, not our OOC schedule's fault.
But a few nice wins would give you some room to have a hiccup or two in conference. Look at the Big10 for example. There have been 14 conference games so far and 13 have been won by the home team. That includes upsets by Penn State over Maryland, Rutgers over Wisconsin, Minnesota over OSU, and Illinois over Michigan. Point being, even really good teams lose games on the road in conference. Hell, Mooney has been telling us for years how hard it is to win a road game. So, inevitably it will happen and our NET will fall. We will then have a bad loss or two or three on our resume. And we will have one marginal OOC win on the resume along with a bunch of cupcakes. For those of you that are convinced this is a great team, if you are right the OOC schedule will most likely hurt us on selection Sunday. NET is important, but so are the teams you beat.
Dude you have over 13000 posts on here, maybe more than anyone, I think you've done some harping. Past informs the future. If we didn't talk about the past 90% of the board is gone.
Very few may not have been predicting, but I was never one of those people. so I guess it's ok for me to sit here & say those things! That's why I cared so much about the schedule back in the summer. But I guess all these posters who had no idea we'd be so good have all the right insight now. Makes sense.
We all want the same thing, again if we get back to NCAA like we should I'll be glad to say I was wrong re: schedule. But Wilk brings up concerns I've had. We also have 2 important OOC games to go. VT4700, u act like once the OOC is over it no longer affects anything. Like there is some huge break between OOC and IC. OOC is a season long endeavor. How our OOC teams do affects our numbers all season long. They work together all year long. Our NET is affected by OOC along with IC results even once OOC is over. I know u must realize that but u wrote it like it was purely an IC factor going forward. They work together always have. I like this team, I like where we're at, long way still to go.
GK, do you feel we'd have a better NET if we played a tougher schedule?
i.e. do you feel we're underrated at 23 because we've played too weak a schedule?
I see our SOS at 148 which is a little better than middle of the road. I'm sure we expected some of our OOC teams to do a little better than they have but with a NET of 23, the schedule isn't hurting us. if we lose too many games going forward, that will hurt us. not what we did in these first 11 games.
i.e. do you feel we're underrated at 23 because we've played too weak a schedule?
I see our SOS at 148 which is a little better than middle of the road. I'm sure we expected some of our OOC teams to do a little better than they have but with a NET of 23, the schedule isn't hurting us. if we lose too many games going forward, that will hurt us. not what we did in these first 11 games.
I would have liked one more really good BCS team on our OOC schedule. But those games only really help you if you win them.
I think we are in enviable position with the NET. I'd much rather be at 22 and have the luxury of falling into the 40's or 50's when we have an inevitable bad loss, than a net in the 70's and have to crawl our way up to the 40's and 50's.
Ultimately yes. I don't know the algorithm used with NET and won't pretend to be an expert so after 11 games I can't answer that. At 23 NET now it seems doubtful. But again there is a ton to play out, and SOS will be part of that, how our OOC continues to perform will be part of that. But to answer your question over a 30+ game schedule yes I do.
Bama is a must win imo. I hope we bring our A game. A win there takes a lot of pressure off of conference play. At large is very doable if we win at Bama.
Apparently you don't know how Quads work. They are not dependent on Kenpom, they are dependent on NET. So Kenpom rankings don't really mean anything when it comes to selection Sunday and that should really be the only goal of this team - to make the tournament - or Mooney should be fired. Alabama is currently 94 in NET which determines the quads. And if we beat them they will drop further. Sure if they go on a run in the SEC maybe they will get in the top 75, buy check your math please.
I know exactly how quads work, and my reply was in response to your saying we would end up with one marginal OOC win and cupcakes. I simply pointed out how very wrong you were, unless you think top 50 wins are marginal and top 100 wins are cupcakes. I mentioned Bama was top 100 in NET, and 74 in Kenpom, meaning they do have a chance to be quad 1. And, do more homework before criticizing others: in addition to the NET, the committee absolutely uses Kenpom along with a couple other metrics.
Also, Bama went 8-10 in the SEC and 18-16 overall and finished with a NET of 59 last year, so I doubt they need to go on a major run in the SEC to get to top 75. A .500 record would likely get them there. Not your finest post.
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Not a must win because it looks like we will have some chances in the A-10 for some quality wins, but I agree that winning there would be huge and would go a long way toward helping us if we are on the bubble.
My second favorite team is SDSU. Aztec Nation. NET #1. Between Spiders 22 and Aztecs start, not what I expected but great to see. One loss between them. Great game Dayton vs Colorado right now.
Oh man was pulling for the Flyers. Dagger from Colorado with .5 seconds in OT. Dayton is a load. Great that we have them in Richmond this year
IIRC, Kenpom is one of four ratings that are factors in determining the Net. Others include the ESPN BPI and Sagarin, and KPI.
http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections
Your memory is failing you. No other ranking systems factor into the NET. It is a completely independent ranking system using its own methodology.
Looking over the rankings I believe more in Kenny's than NET. I guess Kenny looks more ahead of what will happen? I don't see both UR and the Dukes making it. Stanford? UNI better win their conference tourney. Comparing the top 50 see more maybes with NET. Just hope 2020 UR doesn't finish as 2016 St Bonny.
Understand what your saying, but what about the same name recognition that assists these type teams getting to Dance over deserving mid-majors.
I would rather have real good A - 10 wins and finish top three or four in the conference. Those games will be a lot more important than this one today.
This is such bs. We need both. This loss hurt!
This is a bad trend, stinkers against mediocre teams back to back. Need to beat bama, and take 3 out of 4 vs VCU, dayton and Rhody.
Why as if a team that loses badly to Radford has even the slightest chance to win 3 games in 3 days beating the likes of Top 10 Dayton. Keep dreaming. This lose basically kills our chance to make the dance. Praying for a miracle streak in A10 isnt much hope imo.
Really 4700. After this unexpected loss no brainer there more important! And three or four in the A10 won't get them in the Dance.
