Ok I will play along... it doesnt if we win almost every big game moving forward and dont lose a few to the leagues bottom half. This stinker makes the margin for error much much smaller. After the performance of the last two games do you seriously see that happening?
2019 Opponent Thread
- Thread starter plydogg
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This is true, our path has just gotten a lot more narrow but it is still there. Also being a mid major hurts us a lot as teams like duke and kentucky have both lost to terrible teams but only dropped a few spots. This puts us at a disadvantage and we must go on a huge run to get an at large. having the a-10 be a lot better than last year will help as we can pick up more quality wins. All that said I don't see us making it unless we beat Dayton and go 2-3 against Rhode island and vcu and our only other loss being to a team like george mason or duquesne.
We dropped 15 in Kenpom I expect a bigger one in NET. Already down to 25 going into game. Our numbers were a bit of a mirage with our OOC strategery. We were more vulnerable than other teams if we took a mediocre to bad loss.
Bama is a must win. There’s still a path of course. Bubble is normally weak. Losses like this can happen to even good teams. Bama only chance to make up for it in OOC bc we decided not to give ourselves many make up for it games.
10-1 start. NCAA or bust. No excuses.
Bama is a must win. There’s still a path of course. Bubble is normally weak. Losses like this can happen to even good teams. Bama only chance to make up for it in OOC bc we decided not to give ourselves many make up for it games.
10-1 start. NCAA or bust. No excuses.
Mason and Duquesne have each lost one game and are below us. SLU has lost two and is below us.
With only one OOC game left, we have the second-best net in the A-10. Alabama has a NET of 77, and could easily end top 75 after SEC play. The A-10 has six teams in the top 75 and 8 in the top 100, so we will have a lot of opportunities for quality wins in conference play.
We are in great shape right now, and if Radford, who is currently 124 in the NET, ends up being our worst loss, that will look a lot better than other bubble team's worst losses.
With only one OOC game left, we have the second-best net in the A-10. Alabama has a NET of 77, and could easily end top 75 after SEC play. The A-10 has six teams in the top 75 and 8 in the top 100, so we will have a lot of opportunities for quality wins in conference play.
We are in great shape right now, and if Radford, who is currently 124 in the NET, ends up being our worst loss, that will look a lot better than other bubble team's worst losses.
If we end up with a NET in the 50s, the committee is going to look for quality wins both in conference and out of conference. Where are the quality non-conference wins on our resume? One quad 1/2 win in non-conference is not going to cut it. The committee will say we did not challenge ourselves in the non-conference schedule and they will be correct.
We need to win Alabama and some big games in the A-10. 14-5 the rest of the way. That doesn't seem like it's that much harder than 13-6, but in the A-10 it will be.
The Big South has 3 of the 14 worst teams in the country (by NET), and all but one other team is #221 or below. Even if Radford wins that conference, unfortunately their NET has only one direction to go - Big South.
The Big South has 3 of the 14 worst teams in the country (by NET), and all but one other team is #221 or below. Even if Radford wins that conference, unfortunately their NET has only one direction to go - Big South.
The committee looks at quad wins. They do not separate how many quad wins you got IC and OOC. They will also look at our schedule, and will see that we did test ourselves OOC with 5 games against P6 teams, including 2 neutral and a true road game. They will also see that, using current NET, we have played a top ten team, 2 top 50s, and counting Bama 3 top 77, 5 top 125, and 7 top 150 teams OOC with an 8th close behind. Bubble teams are filled with bad losses and cupcake wins. If you think a neutral loss to a current 124 team ruins an at large chance 12 games into a season, you have not been paying attention to past years. If we end on the bubble, and have some quality A-10 wins, we could very likely have a resume and schedule that looks pretty good compared to other bubble teams.
I can't figure out why anyone would blame our schedule for anything. If we beat Bama, we will be looking good again. 11-2 with 4 wins against power 6 teams and 2 possible quad 1 wins would be outstanding. We can thank the schedule for setting us up nicely. If we lose to Bama, how can we blame the schedule for that? Isn't that the type of team we want to play? Bottom line is even with the loss to Radford, our schedule has set us up nicely going into the Bama game, and our IC games. It is up to us now. We will have plenty of chances to get some more quality wins, and the good news is we are 10-2 trying to add more quality wins, not 7-5. We are still in great shape.
It will be all about who we beat. If we finish 13-6 and beat Bama and a few of the top A-10 teams, we will be looking real good at 23-8 with some good quad 1 and 2 wins. If we lose to Bama and only beat 1 of the top A-10 teams, but still win 13 more games, we won't be looking nearly as good at 23-8. That is why I am not as concerned about the Radford loss. Sure, we want to win as many as we can, but come on, we are not going to win every game, and we will have some losses, so if we lose 8 games this year, this would be one of the 8 I would want to lose. It will be a likely quad 3 loss on a neutral court. Not a terrible loss like a quad 4 loss at home would have been, and I would rather lose to Radford and beat Wisconsin than vice versa. We are still in good shape, but, as you said, let's beat Bama and some big A-10 games.
I'm not sure why you keep pushing this narrative, as we have demonstrated it not to be true multiple times. They most definitely separate the quad records into overall and non-conference. They look at both.
Bubble teams are not filled with bad losses and cupcake wins. You can look at the team sheets of the at-large teams over the past couple of years and you will find very few bad losses - even Q3 losses - and many more Q1 and Q2 games than we are likely to have. Davidson wasn't even on the bubble last year at 24 wins and no bad losses, and 2nd place in the A-10.
We will have our chances. It's not over yet, but our margin of error just got razor-thin.
So, for a start, we need a better looking sheet than this?
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/team-net-sheet?team=Davidson
And we will see how this evolves
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/team-net-sheet?team=Richmond
To answer your question, yes we need a better looking team sheet than 2019 Davidson who missed the tournament. Maybe if they didn't lose a Quad 3 game to Wake Forest and if they had more than 2 Quad 1/2 wins on their resume they would have made the tournament. At least they played 5 out of conference Quad 1/2 games.
A bad A - 10 hurt Davidson, in addition to some bad conference losses. Looks like the A-10 will have more chances for quality wins this year.
Don't think our margin of error is razor thin with the state of the A-10 this year and having a ton of Top 100 games. However, that sword cuts both ways, as we have a lot of good teams in the league this year, so winning those games will not be easy. Think we need to go at least 13-5 to put us in good shape.
A win at Alabama will help things considerably. Let's focus on that.
The A10 as a conference is better this year, but in my opinion the conference will get 3 bids max. UR has to finish in the top 3 to have any sort of chance.
An Alabama win is also a near requirement, so I agree that is a good short term goal.
An Alabama win is also a near requirement, so I agree that is a good short term goal.
Win the next game. It’s always the most important one.
Wisconsin (and UR, indirectly) caught a break with Lamonte Turner's college career-ending injury. It's also going to make VCU's loss to Tennessee look worse in the computer rankings. Of course, the humans on the committee can take these factors into account.
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We are most acutely aware of that. Still wondering how that dude made that fall away 3 from the 2nd row. That one hurt more than the Atkinson heave in the RTD many moons ago.
Not that it matters, but @Bryant and @Sacred Heart are STFU’s 2 predicted losses...
South Alabama, CofC and ODU win at least. Wisco on road at OSU tonight. That would be massive win for them (and us accordingly) but heavy dog and OSU coming off defeat. The A10 has really crapped the bed the last couple weeks in typical fashion so we need our weak OOC strategery to over perform.
Watched a bit of LSU-Tennessee yesterday. Tennessee is a completely different team without Turner. A .500 (or worse) SEC record is not out of the question. Plus, they still have a game against Kansas.
Gilyard, please stay healthy.
Gilyard, please stay healthy.
The parity in college basketball this year is really quite amazing. The Big10 is really inconsistent outside of Mich St, MD and Rutgers (that feels weird to type). The ACC is really down this year. The top of the SEC is ok but have you seen a worse 14-0 P5 team than Auburn? Credit to them that they have found ways to win but they could have several losses and their best win might be against us. The top 4 in the PAC12 look good but after that is mediocre to poor as usual.
We would hope this would lead to several more at large bids for teams outside the P5 but most likely it will create more at large bids for P5 teams that pick up a number of wins over the other mediocre teams in the 40 to 60 NET range.
Our OOC schedule is really going to hurt us if Vandy or BC makes their way into Quad 2 which looks very unlikely. I think if we want any shot at an at large we have to go at least 4-4 or 5-3 in our remaining Quad 1/2 games and not drop any of the Quad 3/4 games. One more Quad 1/2 win in OOC would have been huge, especially after we decided not to show up vs Radford.
We would hope this would lead to several more at large bids for teams outside the P5 but most likely it will create more at large bids for P5 teams that pick up a number of wins over the other mediocre teams in the 40 to 60 NET range.
Our OOC schedule is really going to hurt us if Vandy or BC makes their way into Quad 2 which looks very unlikely. I think if we want any shot at an at large we have to go at least 4-4 or 5-3 in our remaining Quad 1/2 games and not drop any of the Quad 3/4 games. One more Quad 1/2 win in OOC would have been huge, especially after we decided not to show up vs Radford.
Parity in the P6 probably makes it tougher on the mid-majors. I have no empirical evidence, it just seems logical that more P6 teams fighting for those 36 spots is not a good thing.
23-8 (or worse), we'll need some help.
24-7, our showing in Brooklyn will probably determine where we go next.
25-6 or better, we should be in.
23-8 (or worse), we'll need some help.
24-7, our showing in Brooklyn will probably determine where we go next.
25-6 or better, we should be in.
I agree with your parity comment, and you are probably right that they will find a way to get some majors at larges over mid majors. But, if you are saying Auburn is not great, and we needed one more quad 1/2 win OOC, how can you say our OOC schedule might hurt us when we played Auburn and Bama and lost to both? You can't blame our schedule for that. That is at least 3 quad 1/2 games and we only went 1-2 against them. So, who else exactly should we have scheduled, and why are you assuming we would have won against them? You said we could have 8 more quad 1/2 games left. Well, if we don't win enough of those, how can you blame our OOC schedule for that?
Most of us, including you, are talking about what we need to do IC to put us in good shape for a bid. As a mid major, if we are talking about that, then our OOC schedule served its purpose and was good for us, not bad.
This could be pretty accurate, but it will matter who we beat, and maybe who we lose to. If we go 23-8, with wins over VCU and Dayton, that is better than going 24-7 and losing to them. I think 23-8 with some quad 1/2 wins IC, no really bad 150+ losses, and at least a win in the A-10 tourney should put us in good shape at 24-9 overall if we lose in the semis. But, who knows? We have no idea what the bubble will look like, but I do think there is no question it matters who we beat and who we lose to. Going 0-3 against Dayton and VCU would make it tough for us.
No evidence needed. Mids have been screwed forever and will continue to get screwed. The committee after presented with all the evidence go into politican mode in deciding. It is what it is.
If we go 11-5 the rest of the way and beat VCU and Dayton, it's highly likely a couple of those 5 losses are stinkers.
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