Building off my theory that the outcomes of our out of conference road games are entirely too predictable, I decided to look at every OOC road game we have ever played under Mooney. Here is what I found:
• We are 25-48 in these games.
• Of our 25 wins, only 5 were against teams who had winning records in those seasons (JMU in 2012 and 2016, W&M in 2013, Wofford and UNI in 2021).
• The combined records of the 25 teams we beat in the seasons we beat them was 312-462.
• Our “best” OOC road win in his career was probably the Kentucky win, but maybe not, since they ended up 9-16 that year. Other than that? The others that I named, plus wins over Arizona State when they went 12-19, Wake a couple times when they were 13-18 and 13-19, and Seton Hall when they were 13-18.
From this, I think it's fair to conclude that we almost never beat any decent or good OOC teams on the road. I'm not sure what our expectations should be, but mine are higher than this. UNI appears to be a bad team, so I will give us a 60-40 shot of winning that game.
• We are 25-48 in these games.
• Of our 25 wins, only 5 were against teams who had winning records in those seasons (JMU in 2012 and 2016, W&M in 2013, Wofford and UNI in 2021).
• The combined records of the 25 teams we beat in the seasons we beat them was 312-462.
• Our “best” OOC road win in his career was probably the Kentucky win, but maybe not, since they ended up 9-16 that year. Other than that? The others that I named, plus wins over Arizona State when they went 12-19, Wake a couple times when they were 13-18 and 13-19, and Seton Hall when they were 13-18.
From this, I think it's fair to conclude that we almost never beat any decent or good OOC teams on the road. I'm not sure what our expectations should be, but mine are higher than this. UNI appears to be a bad team, so I will give us a 60-40 shot of winning that game.
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