The fact that we have 3 potential good wins on our resume (and the opportunity for a 4th) really helps diversify our risks of one of those wins not looking as good as it does now.
If we beat Texas Tech, we are now effectively controlling our own destiny entering into conference. As long as we don't crap the bed and lose several bad games in conference, we should be OK. If we lose to Texas Tech, I think we would need to probably go 11-5 in conference to feel comfortable. I think we are a firm bubble team in that situation. And to put that into perspective, we really didn't even work our way onto the bubble until the very end of the season last year. So, win or lose against Texas Tech, we are in much much better situation than we were last year at this time.