Lunardi impact
- Thread starter SpiderTrap
- Start date
Rothstein said something disturbing during our game yesterday - that if Dayton runs the table, no other Atlantic 10 team can feel safe on Selection Sunday. I think the idea that the A10 could be a one-bid league is absurd, but it's not impossible.
He was trying to make a related point that if you're an A10 team, and you're not playing Dayton, there's a lot more downside risk than upside reward.
He was trying to make a related point that if you're an A10 team, and you're not playing Dayton, there's a lot more downside risk than upside reward.
VCU may be cooked after this past week. It may come down to URI vs UR and the A10 semifnal a de facto play-in game. Lots of basketball left, and both teams have to get there first.
His point is valid - Bonnies, Davidson, SLU, Duquesne and others are all unlikely to make the tourney, but are all capable of bursting bubbles.
Bonnies is the game that would really hurt. They are 120s NET. All the others mentioned above are in the 70s I think, so not bad losses, and decent wins. Many of you had us out of contention for At-Large after the 1st VCU game. I’m just saying it’s a soft bubble, and lots of basketball left. I thought the A10 could get 4 before VCUs Mason loss, but feel very confident we will get 3. Best thing we having going for us is having only 1 bad loss. We need to keep it right there.
Duquesne is #85, but yep. I think his point was be careful - while they may not necessarily be a "bad loss," any loss is going to hurt you on the bubble. It was triggered by what GMU did to VCU and Davidson did to the Bonnies. Can't look past anyone.
WaPo did an article yesterday on the bubble teams and what they needed to do - VCU was one of the featured teams and all the author talked about was their upcoming game with Dayton - he didn't even mention the Spiders. Oops.
We need Dayton to beat Rhody again, obviously. If that happens and we end up second, there's no way we are left out.
Beating VCU puts us on the right side for now. But unfortunately since we don’t have a lot of big wins on the resume to fall back on we can’t afford losses at this point. I think realistically we could lose one more game on the road and survive. If we win out - we are in no matter what. Lose 1 game and we probably need a win in the A10 tourney. Lose 2 games and we need to make A10 finals.
If we win out reg season and lose in semis of A10 and are left out for some 7-9 17-12 Big 12 team we should boycott dance forever lol
Our bad Radford lose is at least looking better. I think they were 3-8 when we played them, now they're 17-9 and red hot. So it's still a bad loss, but maybe some of the sting is gone.
Lunardi still had us 6th out today. He does some tweeter updates. Now I like to wait until his formal espn.com update on Tues bc that way all the weekend games have been played. But for instance he had Indiana Minnesota & nc state all above us today. All lost so we’ll move up a little more. But MN who is now 6-8 in b10 & 12-12 had no business being ahead of us before today loss anyway. Lunardi has done it all year with us.
Point is expect nothing from him. He ran a total con on big hat no cattle Hardt. Thievery. We got 6 “lunardi” games that r hurting us overall way more than helping. And we are getting anti-PR. Literally the dumbest move by an AD this year in d1.
Point is expect nothing from him. He ran a total con on big hat no cattle Hardt. Thievery. We got 6 “lunardi” games that r hurting us overall way more than helping. And we are getting anti-PR. Literally the dumbest move by an AD this year in d1.
****Negative alert - stop reading if you are sensitive******
I recall that many on the Forum knew this was a sham from the start. Of course, Lunardi can't "favor" us because then his goose would be cooked. He already is "marginal" at best in terms of his predictions - he was just a "first mover" and has some name recognition. It was a desperate move to try to distract the fan base - period.
Hiring Joe might be a very stupid move for a team that hopes to be on the bubble most years. If its public knowledge we pay him, he will likely feel compelled to not give us favor for fear of conflict of interest. Just like a coach who’s son is on the team, poppa joe needs the spiders to earn it more than others to prove he isnt showing favoritism.
Sadly this is no joke because i think his thoughts mean a lot today.
Sadly this is no joke because i think his thoughts mean a lot today.
It was always worse the day it happened. I saw Radford in person and they passed the eye test despite the woeful record. Radford really doesn’t have any bad losses other than UNCA and been on fire of late as you mentioned. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them run the table and top 100 in net and RPI by end of season. The loss while it sucked and was bad hopefully loses anchor status.
The problem is they are only playing bad teams right now so the wins aren't giving them much of a boost in the rankings. Their NET has only risen about 20 spots during their seven-game win streak so I think their peak is probably more likely in the 130's or 140's.
Agree though that loss was not as terrible as it seemed at the time as they have turned out to be a decent team. They are our worst loss but most bubble teams will probably have a much worse loss than Radford.
Who cares if we are in his bracket or not? He is not part of the committee. And, Bracket Matrix has 93 brackets up today, and we are only in 14 of them, and we are their 5th team out. So, it is not like Lunardi is being different toward us than the other brackets. Why single him out like he is being unfair to us?
Dude, no. They only have 4 games left, all Quad 4, including two 300+ teams. They're not climbing 62 spots.
They were NET #124 immediately after beating us. I said the Big South was so bad, they could go 15-3 (or better) and their NET would still drop. Well, they're 12-2, and have already split their two games against the only decent team in that conference, and they fell 38 spots.
Maybe the RPI - I don't follow that any more and neither does the NCAA.
It's a bad loss. It's not a lethal loss. We don't need to put lipstick on it. This year, almost all the bubble teams have a similar blemish on their resume.
Rhode Island lost to Brown, which is like 50 spots worse in the NET than Radford. Which is another reason if we can end up tied with Rhody or ahead of them in the league, we stand a very good chance of making the field ahead of them. We'd have beaten them head to head, finished second in the league and they'd have a worse loss.
We may see Rhode Island again, right before selections.
Let's just keep winning. There are a few potential landmines between here and there.
The lists generally get more close to the actual results the nearer they are to Selection Sunday
Fair enough regarding net. Not so much putting lipstick on it other than noticing their trending up and the loss wouldn’t be as detrimental to our chances as originally thought should they keep going. If Radford continues to win out they’ll be what roughly 21-9 and in the NCAAs? And I know the NCaA doesn’t emphasize RPI like they used to but do they not at all? If so then they shouldn’t even bother releasing it.
I wouldn’t qualify that as a bad loss should they get there. Certainly not as bad as home loss to GMU at this juncture and certainly not as bad as it looked in dec when they were 3-9 when they beat us and everyone thoguht they were a 9 win team. I’m not celebrating it.
That's kinda like saying my projections for regular season record get more accurate when we reach the last weekend.
They have one Quad 1 win (us) and zero Quad 2 wins.
It's a bad loss. It's OK, there are very few bubble teams without one.
On to GMU.
The NCAA doesn't publish the RPI.
Wow RI is in 93 brackets. Is there resume that much better than ours? A 9 seed on average too.
They beat Alabama and we didn't, and they have one fewer loss in conference. That's about it. Not to mention a worse loss than us. That's why I think it's so critical for Dayton to beat them and us to win out. If we finish second, we absolutely can go head to head with them on overall resume and win.
When we're one of the first few out, it doesn't need to be THAT much better than ours to be in almost every bracket.
They definitely have a better resume and stronger schedule. 6 quality wins to our 4, 11 quality games to our 9.
My quick cheat sheet summary
Dayton : 3-2 in great wins, 6-0 in good wins, zero bad losses, 9-2 off their home court, #35 OOC SOS, #5 NET
URI : 1-4 in great wins, 5-1 in good wins, one bad loss, 7-5 off their home court, #29 OOC SOS, #32 NET
UR : 2-4 in great wins, 2-1 in good wins, one bad loss, 8-4 off their home court, #110 OOC SOS, #44 NET
VCU : 1-5 in great wins, 1-2 in good wins, one bad loss, 4-6 off their home court, #137 OOC SOS, #52 NET
SLU : 1-4 in great wins, 1-2 in good wins, one bad loss, 6-4 off their home court, #117 OOC SOS, #73 NET
Everyone else has too many bad losses (3 or more I think)
Bolded items are a plus
Speaking of Lunardi...
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
ON THE BUBBLE
Last Four Byes
Last Four In
First Four Out
Next Four Out
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
ON THE BUBBLE
Last Four Byes
Last Four In
First Four Out
Next Four Out
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