ADVERTISEMENT

How many non-conference wins this season?

'18-'19 non-conference predictions

  • 6 wins or less (under .500)

    Votes: 14 31.8%
  • 7-9 wins (over .500)

    Votes: 23 52.3%
  • 10+ wins

    Votes: 7 15.9%

  • Total voters
    44
  • Poll closed .
I have heard a lot of talk on here about how bad our OOC schedule is and how Mooney is only trying to get wins and not worried about the NCAA. I have said that this schedule is not that different from past schedules and our conference games and how good our conference is will end up being the key anyway and are way more important than OOC games.

Let's compare this year's schedule to a few years ago when we ended up being the 1st team left out of the dance. This year will be in order on the left, and I will put the one from a few years ago beside it on the right. This one will be out of order so we can match up the games and see what the difference looks like:

11/9 - Longwood --- Radford
11/14 - St. Francis (NY) --- Howard
11/16 - IUPUI --- IUPUI
11/19 - Loyola Chicago* --- Northern Iowa
11/21 - Boston College/Wyoming* --- NC State
11/25 - Hampton --- Northeastern
11/28 - at Georgetown --- Pepperdine
12/1 - Wake Forest --- Wake
12/5 - Coppin State --- W&M
12/15 - Oral Roberts --- JMU
12/19 - Old Dominion --- ODU
12/22 - High point** --- High Point
12/29 - at South Alabama --- South Alabama

These schedules are very similar. We went 7-6 OOC and 12-6 in the A-10 with the schedule on the right and were the first team left out of the dance. Playing this type of schedule had nothing to do with us not dancing. We had good wins from our A-10 schedule which got us close, and we just needed another win or two. Even at 7-6 OOC with no good OOC wins, just winning our 1st A-10 tourney game might have been enough to get us in. So, the talk about how we need to go 11-2 OOC to even give us a chance for a bid is simply not accurate. We just need to win enough games OOC with this schedule (maybe at least 8?), and then do very well in the A-10, hope our conference has a good year, and get enough quality wins in conference to be in consideration.

Look at it this way: It is more important to go 8-5 OOC and 13-5 IC with a top 4 finish, than 11-2 OOC and 10-8 IC. 10-8 likely puts us behind too many other A-10 teams to even be considered, no matter what we do OOC.
 
  • Like
Reactions: spiderman
Fair enough. Something to think about. Next to each other yeah seem somewhat similar. But remember UNI was great that year, NC State was very good, W&M and Northeastern both had exceptional years relative to historical performance. That 2014-15 OOC schedule was still harder than this year's. I guess something crazy could happen but very unlikely this year isn't weaker.

But biggest difference is league play. A10 was #7 conference that year. The last two years A10 farther down, and last year way down I think #11. You could schedule weaker that year, even though it's still stronger than this years. U had more opportunity for bigger wins in A10. This year tbd but the expectation is it will not be as strong again. So with a weaker A10 you need to schedule stronger OOC to make up for it. Clearly we didn't do that.

Combine those 2 factors and not as similar as you think, but again fair to check out.
 
Who knows what actual SOS will be? But here is KenPom thoughts on last 5 years
2014 16 A-10/15 OOC 169 OOC/ 87 combined
2015 18/13 177/90
2016 18/12 98/83
2017 18/12 214/90
2018 18/12 34/95
 
That’s an interesting comparison. As I recall, people were pretty unimpressed with that OOC that year too. Obviously it outperformed expectation quite a bit and a10 was good that year.

I still don’t think an at large is even in the picture with this year’s team so I’m not hung up on the OOC other than it kind of looks like we mailed it in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: spider23
I'm going to say 11 wins. Loyola Chicago is tough. BC/Georgetown/Wake are teetering and big in conference affiliation only. Everyone else on this schedule is trash. With three likely All A10 performers in Gilly, Golden, and Nick, we just need to find about 5 guys to play defense, make open shots, and not lose games. I am on board with VT4700's thinking on this. I think we win 23 games overall. Pretty pumped. I am now embracing this weak, POS schedule. Let's go out and stomp these teams. Since we off boarded Buck and Fore I am excited to see the chemistry form. Little worried about defense, but think our new staff additions will help straighten this out.
Worst prediction ever.
 
Honestly, I hate rooting against the team. But I hope it’s zero so our administration is forced to finally address our sh!tty situation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hanca
Worst prediction ever.
You got me bro. I had to drive 5.5 hours to Philly area last night for a 3.5 hour meeting this morning, and 6.5 hours back in the rain. And you are right on. WORST ever. I tried to be good poster and believe truther nation that we upgraded talent getting rid of Buck and Fore. But not sure now. Please sir, may I have another?
 
11/9 - Longwood - L
11/14 - St. Francis (NY) - W
11/16 - IUPUI - W
11/19 - Loyola Chicago* - L
11/21 - Boston College/Wyoming* - L
11/25 - Hampton - W
11/28 - at Georgetown - L
12/1 - Wake Forest - L
12/5 - Coppin State - W
12/15 - Oral Roberts - W
12/19 - Old Dominion - L
12/22 - High point** - W
12/29 - at South Alabama - L



* Fort Myers, Floria
** Game is played in Washington, DC

I think we finish with a 6-7 record. I may have been a little on the lower side with wins, but I predict a 6-8 win OOC record

Called it.
 
Honestly, I hate rooting against the team. But I hope it’s zero so our administration is forced to finally address our sh!tty situation.

It's a dangerous thing to do. You start rooting against them, and you don't know when to stop. It's like an addiction. Done that with a few teams.
 
11/9 - Longwood - L
11/14 - St. Francis (NY) - W
11/16 - IUPUI - W
11/19 - Loyola Chicago* - L
11/21 - Boston College/Wyoming* - L
11/25 - Hampton - W
11/28 - at Georgetown - L
12/1 - Wake Forest - L
12/5 - Coppin State - W
12/15 - Oral Roberts - W
12/19 - Old Dominion - L
12/22 - High point** - W
12/29 - at South Alabama - L



* Fort Myers, Floria
** Game is played in Washington, DC

I think we finish with a 6-7 record. I may have been a little on the lower side with wins, but I predict a 6-8 win OOC record

I’d like to point out I’m 4 for 4 with my predictions. Not because I’m Nostradamus over here, but because I’ve been watching Richmond basketball for 6 years now and already know how the book will be written with Mooney.
 
I’d like to point out I’m 4 for 4 with my predictions. Not because I’m Nostradamus over here, but because I’ve been watching Richmond basketball for 6 years now and already know how the book will be written with Mooney.

If you really want to impress us, skip ahead to the chapter of the book that begins with "Chris, Mr. Hardt would like to see you in his office."
 
LOL, thanks for the bump. I was in the 15.9% optimist group. Against this pillow-soft OOC, that should have been easy.
 
Didn't vote but will state where 8-0 MUST be the record for Mooney's team. Brief history summary below for those 8 opponents (7 home and 1 away in S Ala).

11/9 - Longwood L
11/14 - St. Francis (NY) W
11/16 - IUPUI W
11/25 - Hampton L
12/5 - Coppin State W
12/15 - Oral Roberts L
12/22 - High point W
12/29 - at South Alabama W

On the surface 5-3 appears good, but reality is so underachieving. Losing at home to kenpom teams ranked #226, 258, and 298. :rolleyes:
 
Updated Team Sheet for End of OOC:

Q1: (H:1 - 30) (N:1 - 50) (A:1 - 75)
No games played

Q2: (H:31 - 75) (N:51 - 100) (A:76 - 135)
0-2

Q3: (H:76 - 160) (N:101 - 200) (A:136 - 240)
0-1

Q4: (H:161 +) (N:201 +) (A:241 +)
6-4
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT