Our final regular season game of the season! We all know how badly we need a win and as I go through this we will see how good (or bad) our chances are. I have to say that my preview for Davidson ended up causing me to watch the game a bit differently and when they started out hot from 3 I was incredibly worried but we ended up holding them under that "key percentage" from deep and ended up winning comfortably in the end. This preview will be a bit longer than the Davidson one because of how incredibly important this game is for us.
Duquesne Dukes (21-8, 11-6 A10)
The Dukes are having an incredible year and the 21 wins are their most since 2008 when they also had 21 (they went 21-14 that year and made the NIT). If the Dukes are able to win one more game this season the 22 wins would be their most in a season since 1961. They would have to reach 24 to set a program record (lets hope we don't contribute towards that number). Also looking through their program history, a fun fact about the Dukes is that they made the Final Four in 1940 (the next year they DECLINED an invitation to the NCAA tournament). Oh yeah and in 1940 they beat Western Kentucky 30-29 to get to the final four.
Who have they played?
Here is a list of Duquesne's nonconference lossesat home:
......
That's right. Duquesne did not lose a nonconference home game this season. They lost two games at neutral locations (they played an astounding 7 games at neutral locations) and here are those two losses:
UAB (17-13)
Marshall (15-15)
Something about Conference USA I guess? These were also the final 2 nonconference games as Duquesne went 10-0 but did not play a true road game until January 8th at Saint Joseph's!
Here is who Duquesne beat out of conference. W-L and net rating in parentheses:
Princeton (12-12, 153)
Lamar (13-14, 260)
Lipscomb (13-15, 263)
Indiana State (17-11, 99)
Air Force (11-19, 217)
Loyola Marymount (9-20, 206)
VMI (5-23, 295)
Columbia (5-22, 312)
Radford (18-10, 177)
Austin Peay (18-11, 158)
As you can see they played a lot of mediocrity. BUT the important thing to note is that they won. In the past Duquesne would play awful teams and would lose. A lot. But people forget last season their OOC losses were higher but they only had one bad loss (NJIT) compared to two this time around. This year things are different and they wiped the floor with these opponents, until the final two games (UAB's net is 213 and Marshall's is 179). They also wiped the floor with Radford (22 point win).
Conference play predictably did not yield the same win percentage but the Dukes have gone 11-6 and boast wins over Davidson, St. Bonaventure, VCU, and a sweep of Saint Louis (both by 14 points). The downside is they also have featured losses to UMass and George Washington. The bad part for UR is that their other 4 losses are completely justifiable. Twice to Dayton, once to the Bonnies, and once to Rhode Island. We may be two games better in the standings but if we played Dayton and Saint Louis twice we could conceivably have the exact same conference record as they do. This Duquesne team has won 3 straight but they have included two overtime victories and a total winning margin of 10 points. These were the 3 game scores: 81-77, 81-78, 80-77. This team can really score and has been doing it a lot lately. This could favor us as we look to keep the pace up.
Key Players?
Duquesne's leading scorer is F Marcus Weathers who averages 14.4 points in only 29.3 minutes. He is also the leading rebounder with 7.9 boards per game. 38% of his boards are offensive rebounds so we need to do whatever we can to keep Duquesne from getting second chance opportunities. The biggest downside to Weathers game is that he is currently shooting 16.1% from 3. We need to absolutely leave him open whenever he has the ball outside the arc. Similar to what teams do to Grant when he puts up a 3 he shouldn't be taking. Let Weathers take the 3. If he makes it then more power to him but if we can get him to take even 2-3 shots from behind the arc it will essentially be the same as forcing 3 turnovers. Weathers shoots 61% on two point shots so we definitely want to keep him taking inefficient shots.
Their second leading scorer is G Sincere Carry. He averages 12.4 points per game but is most effective when passing as he boasts 5.3 assists per game. Carry shoots a putrid 41.9% from the field and seems to take a lot of shots and doesn't care whether or not they are falling. He also averages 2.8 turnovers per game so his assist to turnover ratio is only 1.89 (still a nice number but not elite and not as good as Gilyard's 2.95).
The final "key" player I want to preview is G Tavian Dunn-Martin. Dunn-Martin has 10.0 points per game and 2.5 assists but is averaging 1.3 steals. His point total is just barely at double digits but in order to reach that point he has to shoot a lot. If you thought Carry's shooting percentage was bad wait until you hear his. Dunn-Martin is shooting 34.4% from the field. He is actually better behind the arc where he shoots 34.9%. He is a very good free throw shooter though at 84.2% but he only averages slightly over 2 free throw attempts per game.
The fourth Duquesne player to average double digit scoring is C Michael Hughes who averages 10.3 points (on 57.3% shooting) with 6.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 2.8 blocks.
Keys to victory?
Scoring will be an obvious key to victory but I want to note just how different Richmond and Duquesne are as far as scoring goes. Richmond is 66th in the country with 75.4 PPG. Duquesne is 151st in the nation with 71.9 PPG. I know that number is only 3.5 points a game but shows how big of a gap that is for all of college basketball. But I know what you are thinking. Volume matters and those numbers may not tell the full story if the efficiency isn't there. Well, Richmond averages 58.4 shots per game. Duquesne? 56.9. So a difference of 1.5 shots per game. We'll dive deeper into the efficiency behind these totals below.
Richmond is 33rd in the nation shooting 46.8% from the field. Duquesne is 132nd in the nation shooting 44.6% from the field. The Spiders are attempting 1.5 more shots per game but they are averaging 1.9 more made shots per game! That shows you the Spiders are taking good shots and making their shots. But what about from 3? Well, the Spiders shoot 36.4%, 44th in the Nation. Duquesne shoots 31.8% from behind the arc which is good for 259th in the nation! That hasn't stopped the Dukes from shooting though as they attempt 24.4 per game! Richmond attempts 22.2.
To get even deeper, Richmond is averaging 1.29 points per shot (64th in the nation)
Dunn-Martin, Carry, and NLance Norman Jr. have attempted 62.3% of Duquesne's 3s (each has attempted at least 120 and combined attempted 441) and have made 34.5% of them. Francis, Sherod, and Gilyard have combined for 75% of the Spiders 3's (each has attempted at least 154 and combined attempted 499) and have made 39.3% of them. The story behind the arc may be the biggest story this game as we may be able to get Duquesne to take (and miss) a LOT of 3's. The Dukes have shot 38% or better a total of six times this season and in their two OOC games they went 8-43 from deep (18.6%). Richmond has shot 38% or better from deep twelve times. A common theme in Richmond losses is horrid 3 point shooting but the Spiders have also overcome some bad nights from 3 to win.
Duquesne actually shoots 2's at 54.3% while we shoot them at 53.1%. They are 28th in the country in that regard so it is a wonder they don't shoot them at a higher rate. So we really want Duquesne to shoot 3's instead of shooting inside. Obviously they could catch fire from 3 but the odds of that are low. I wouldn't even consider 38% catching fire, but if that is "catching fire" then Duquesne has only been able to do that in 21% of their games. Duquesne is currently 309th in the country in 2 point attempts. This amount is not on a per game basis but still that would only slightly increase their amount. Despite being 309th in attempts they are 237th in made 2's! That is significant and if they shot more 2's they could be an even scarier team.
Duquesne does not have that "go to" guy as they have 5 players who have attempted between 206 and 280 shots (Richmond has 4 players who have attempted 275+ shots (with Francis leading the pack at 348). Keeping one of their guys from getting hot will be key but if they continue to spread the ball around (5 guys with 1.6+ assists per game) then they will keep us on our toes. As good as we are at passing (we average one more assist per game than Duquesne) we only have 4 players who average 1.6+ assists per game). This could also help prevent a guy on their team from getting hot and just gashing us. It also means we need to focus on team defense as anybody can score on us any given possession.
We all know what a difference maker Jacob Gilyard is but in this game he can be the one to lead us to a commanding victory in the turnover margin. Duquesne is very careless with the ball (12.6 turnovers per game, 113th in the nation) and we are 33rd in the nation in steals with 8.07 per game. Duquesne meanwhile average 6.93 steals per game (114th in the nation) while we average only 10.83 turnovers per game (17th best in the nation!). Our assist to turnover ratio is 8th in the nation(!!!) at 1.41 and Duquesne's is a solid 1.14 (77th).
The biggest way that Duquesne impacts the game at a high level is altering shots. The Dukes are 9th in the country with 5.48 blocks per game and that is something we will need to seriously watch. With blocked shots comes fouls, but Duquesne is one of the best in the coutnry at limiting fouls. They have committed the 31st fewest fouls in the nation this season and their "block per foul" rate of 0.35 is 4th best in the nation!
Now...Let's go Spiders!!
Duquesne Dukes (21-8, 11-6 A10)
The Dukes are having an incredible year and the 21 wins are their most since 2008 when they also had 21 (they went 21-14 that year and made the NIT). If the Dukes are able to win one more game this season the 22 wins would be their most in a season since 1961. They would have to reach 24 to set a program record (lets hope we don't contribute towards that number). Also looking through their program history, a fun fact about the Dukes is that they made the Final Four in 1940 (the next year they DECLINED an invitation to the NCAA tournament). Oh yeah and in 1940 they beat Western Kentucky 30-29 to get to the final four.
Who have they played?
Here is a list of Duquesne's nonconference lossesat home:
......
That's right. Duquesne did not lose a nonconference home game this season. They lost two games at neutral locations (they played an astounding 7 games at neutral locations) and here are those two losses:
UAB (17-13)
Marshall (15-15)
Something about Conference USA I guess? These were also the final 2 nonconference games as Duquesne went 10-0 but did not play a true road game until January 8th at Saint Joseph's!
Here is who Duquesne beat out of conference. W-L and net rating in parentheses:
Princeton (12-12, 153)
Lamar (13-14, 260)
Lipscomb (13-15, 263)
Indiana State (17-11, 99)
Air Force (11-19, 217)
Loyola Marymount (9-20, 206)
VMI (5-23, 295)
Columbia (5-22, 312)
Radford (18-10, 177)
Austin Peay (18-11, 158)
As you can see they played a lot of mediocrity. BUT the important thing to note is that they won. In the past Duquesne would play awful teams and would lose. A lot. But people forget last season their OOC losses were higher but they only had one bad loss (NJIT) compared to two this time around. This year things are different and they wiped the floor with these opponents, until the final two games (UAB's net is 213 and Marshall's is 179). They also wiped the floor with Radford (22 point win).
Conference play predictably did not yield the same win percentage but the Dukes have gone 11-6 and boast wins over Davidson, St. Bonaventure, VCU, and a sweep of Saint Louis (both by 14 points). The downside is they also have featured losses to UMass and George Washington. The bad part for UR is that their other 4 losses are completely justifiable. Twice to Dayton, once to the Bonnies, and once to Rhode Island. We may be two games better in the standings but if we played Dayton and Saint Louis twice we could conceivably have the exact same conference record as they do. This Duquesne team has won 3 straight but they have included two overtime victories and a total winning margin of 10 points. These were the 3 game scores: 81-77, 81-78, 80-77. This team can really score and has been doing it a lot lately. This could favor us as we look to keep the pace up.
Key Players?
Duquesne's leading scorer is F Marcus Weathers who averages 14.4 points in only 29.3 minutes. He is also the leading rebounder with 7.9 boards per game. 38% of his boards are offensive rebounds so we need to do whatever we can to keep Duquesne from getting second chance opportunities. The biggest downside to Weathers game is that he is currently shooting 16.1% from 3. We need to absolutely leave him open whenever he has the ball outside the arc. Similar to what teams do to Grant when he puts up a 3 he shouldn't be taking. Let Weathers take the 3. If he makes it then more power to him but if we can get him to take even 2-3 shots from behind the arc it will essentially be the same as forcing 3 turnovers. Weathers shoots 61% on two point shots so we definitely want to keep him taking inefficient shots.
Their second leading scorer is G Sincere Carry. He averages 12.4 points per game but is most effective when passing as he boasts 5.3 assists per game. Carry shoots a putrid 41.9% from the field and seems to take a lot of shots and doesn't care whether or not they are falling. He also averages 2.8 turnovers per game so his assist to turnover ratio is only 1.89 (still a nice number but not elite and not as good as Gilyard's 2.95).
The final "key" player I want to preview is G Tavian Dunn-Martin. Dunn-Martin has 10.0 points per game and 2.5 assists but is averaging 1.3 steals. His point total is just barely at double digits but in order to reach that point he has to shoot a lot. If you thought Carry's shooting percentage was bad wait until you hear his. Dunn-Martin is shooting 34.4% from the field. He is actually better behind the arc where he shoots 34.9%. He is a very good free throw shooter though at 84.2% but he only averages slightly over 2 free throw attempts per game.
The fourth Duquesne player to average double digit scoring is C Michael Hughes who averages 10.3 points (on 57.3% shooting) with 6.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 2.8 blocks.
Keys to victory?
Scoring will be an obvious key to victory but I want to note just how different Richmond and Duquesne are as far as scoring goes. Richmond is 66th in the country with 75.4 PPG. Duquesne is 151st in the nation with 71.9 PPG. I know that number is only 3.5 points a game but shows how big of a gap that is for all of college basketball. But I know what you are thinking. Volume matters and those numbers may not tell the full story if the efficiency isn't there. Well, Richmond averages 58.4 shots per game. Duquesne? 56.9. So a difference of 1.5 shots per game. We'll dive deeper into the efficiency behind these totals below.
Richmond is 33rd in the nation shooting 46.8% from the field. Duquesne is 132nd in the nation shooting 44.6% from the field. The Spiders are attempting 1.5 more shots per game but they are averaging 1.9 more made shots per game! That shows you the Spiders are taking good shots and making their shots. But what about from 3? Well, the Spiders shoot 36.4%, 44th in the Nation. Duquesne shoots 31.8% from behind the arc which is good for 259th in the nation! That hasn't stopped the Dukes from shooting though as they attempt 24.4 per game! Richmond attempts 22.2.
To get even deeper, Richmond is averaging 1.29 points per shot (64th in the nation)
Dunn-Martin, Carry, and NLance Norman Jr. have attempted 62.3% of Duquesne's 3s (each has attempted at least 120 and combined attempted 441) and have made 34.5% of them. Francis, Sherod, and Gilyard have combined for 75% of the Spiders 3's (each has attempted at least 154 and combined attempted 499) and have made 39.3% of them. The story behind the arc may be the biggest story this game as we may be able to get Duquesne to take (and miss) a LOT of 3's. The Dukes have shot 38% or better a total of six times this season and in their two OOC games they went 8-43 from deep (18.6%). Richmond has shot 38% or better from deep twelve times. A common theme in Richmond losses is horrid 3 point shooting but the Spiders have also overcome some bad nights from 3 to win.
Duquesne actually shoots 2's at 54.3% while we shoot them at 53.1%. They are 28th in the country in that regard so it is a wonder they don't shoot them at a higher rate. So we really want Duquesne to shoot 3's instead of shooting inside. Obviously they could catch fire from 3 but the odds of that are low. I wouldn't even consider 38% catching fire, but if that is "catching fire" then Duquesne has only been able to do that in 21% of their games. Duquesne is currently 309th in the country in 2 point attempts. This amount is not on a per game basis but still that would only slightly increase their amount. Despite being 309th in attempts they are 237th in made 2's! That is significant and if they shot more 2's they could be an even scarier team.
Duquesne does not have that "go to" guy as they have 5 players who have attempted between 206 and 280 shots (Richmond has 4 players who have attempted 275+ shots (with Francis leading the pack at 348). Keeping one of their guys from getting hot will be key but if they continue to spread the ball around (5 guys with 1.6+ assists per game) then they will keep us on our toes. As good as we are at passing (we average one more assist per game than Duquesne) we only have 4 players who average 1.6+ assists per game). This could also help prevent a guy on their team from getting hot and just gashing us. It also means we need to focus on team defense as anybody can score on us any given possession.
We all know what a difference maker Jacob Gilyard is but in this game he can be the one to lead us to a commanding victory in the turnover margin. Duquesne is very careless with the ball (12.6 turnovers per game, 113th in the nation) and we are 33rd in the nation in steals with 8.07 per game. Duquesne meanwhile average 6.93 steals per game (114th in the nation) while we average only 10.83 turnovers per game (17th best in the nation!). Our assist to turnover ratio is 8th in the nation(!!!) at 1.41 and Duquesne's is a solid 1.14 (77th).
The biggest way that Duquesne impacts the game at a high level is altering shots. The Dukes are 9th in the country with 5.48 blocks per game and that is something we will need to seriously watch. With blocked shots comes fouls, but Duquesne is one of the best in the coutnry at limiting fouls. They have committed the 31st fewest fouls in the nation this season and their "block per foul" rate of 0.35 is 4th best in the nation!
Now...Let's go Spiders!!
