2022-2023 Season outlook

[spider23]

Good points about Roche. Was able to gain a ton of experience. Had not looked it up, but that is impressive that SoCon 11th ranked conference. I do value actual D1 game time experience. I know I have had this debate with sman over the years - with my position valuing game experience vs practice. I do get that practice and workouts and training are super important, I just am of opinion that the pressure and speed of game experience is hard to replicate and getting some minutes in games is very valuable. I do think this helps Roche "adjust" as he will be more adjusting to system than speed of the game. Of course I am hoping that Nelson going up against Gilly in practice for a year gets him up to speed quickly.

 

[UR Fan 2]

Goose was a facilitator and defensive stopper last year with last year's roster. This year he may score more and still be an elite defensive player. But he is one of our top 3 players imo. Defense wins championships. Watch the Davidson tourney game to see how. Focus on the Goose....u will see it.....I promise

PS...I have no affiliation or relationship worth disclosing w Goose, Rooster, Maverick, Mother Goose, any other bird, Spider basketball(aside from being a ravenous fan) Chris Mooney's family, VT, POM, or really any other regular poster here....

 

[SpiderDad75]

It would be fun to watch some of the summer practices to get a more educated guess.

I will say I like what I’ve seen 😀

 

[SpiderDad75]

Goose was a facilitator and defensive stopper last year with last year's roster. This year he may score more and still be an elite defensive player. But he is one of our top 3 players imo. Defense wins championships. Watch the Davidson tourney game to see how. Focus on the Goose....u will see it.....I promise

PS...I have no affiliation or relationship worth disclosing w Goose, Rooster, Maverick, Mother Goose, any other bird, Spider basketball(aside from being a ravenous fan) Chris Mooney's family, VT, POM, or really any other regular poster here....

For the record…I’m laughing at your last part 😃🤷🏼‍♂️

 

[8legs1dream]

Goose was a facilitator and defensive stopper last year with last year's roster. This year he may score more and still be an elite defensive player. But he is one of our top 3 players imo. Defense wins championships. Watch the Davidson tourney game to see how. Focus on the Goose....u will see it.....I promise

PS...I have no affiliation or relationship worth disclosing w Goose, Rooster, Maverick, Mother Goose, any other bird, Spider basketball(aside from being a ravenous fan) Chris Mooney's family, VT, POM, or really any other regular poster here....

 

[UR Fan 2]

With a Goose on the team, we need a Maverick and Rooster.....just saying

Rooster would be young Goose.....elite defensive player...cocky

Maverick would have to be an offensive first sort of guy

 

[SpiderK]

No no no, there’s two O’s in Mooney boys.

 

[Not-A-Homer]

This is why I think a lineup of 3 transfers is not going to happen until mid-season at best. One of the three is likely just due to a lack of options, but I don’t see Mooney playing program newcomers over experienced system players right from the start. I know most are talking about who is going to score, but I don’t even know if that is an issue to Mooney.

I think whoever runs the system the best plays and since there is so little to base a guess on at this point I have no guess. It would be fun to watch some of the summer practices to get a more educated guess.

I don't disagree with this overall, except, I would wager that Quinn plays major minutes right out of the gate whether he experiences defensive challenges or not.

 

[urmite]

Good points about Roche. Was able to gain a ton of experience. Had not looked it up, but that is impressive that SoCon 11th ranked conference. I do value actual D1 game time experience. I know I have had this debate with sman over the years - with my position valuing game experience vs practice. I do get that practice and workouts and training are super important, I just am of opinion that the pressure and speed of game experience is hard to replicate and getting some minutes in games is very valuable. I do think this helps Roche "adjust" as he will be more adjusting to system than speed of the game. Of course I am hoping that Nelson going up against Gilly in practice for a year gets him up to speed quickly.

This is Kenpom's take for what it is worth...

Rank/Team/positive (above avg?)

6​	pac	9.55
7​	mwc	8.21
8​	aac	7.00
9​	wcc	5.38
10​	a10	4.50
11​	mvc	3.98
12​	socon	0.31

 

[urmite]

No no no, there’s two O’s in Mooney boys.

I thought "Show me the Mooney!" was a different Mavrick movie?

 

[spiderman]

our matchup defense was tougher to learn and perfect than our offense. now we play man.
our offense is pretty basic these days. I'm really not worried about an adjustment from the transfers. high school kids have a tougher adjustment period.

as for the assumed upward projections for Goose ... I just haven't seen any offensive progression since freshman year. he's not a facilitator. a hockey assist isn't a facilitator. he played 25 mpg with 1 apg. he's a good defensive player and a tough slasher, but not a shooter or facilitator. and as for scoring more ... I've never seen a more consistent 4.5 ppg guy over 4 years. if we ask him to shoot more maybe it goes up a little but not likely with more efficiency.

 

[PalmTreeSpidUR]

To continue the movie references,
when we want to play up tempo: we feel the need, for speed!

And coach, when it comes to players experienced in our system: I will not leave my seniors.

 

[VT4700]

Agree, and last year the SoCon was the 11th ranked conference in the country, while the a10 was 10th. So he basically was playing at the same level.

Not even close to accurate. The A-10 had 6 top 100 teams, and the Southern only 2, and only 3 of its 10 teams were top 150.

 

[plydogg]

Agree, and last year the SoCon was the 11th ranked conference in the country, while the a10 was 10th. So he basically was playing at the same level.

Good point EL. Moving up a level but not an entirely huge jump and as far as overall conference goes he’s already played against teams very similar to what we’ll face. Hadn’t considered this and honestly wouldn’t have expected it

 

[urmite]

Good point EL. Moving up a level but not an entirely huge jump and as far as overall conference goes he’s already played against teams very similar to what we’ll face. Hadn’t considered this and honestly wouldn’t have expected it

From my above post it may not be entirely accurate. However The Citadel did seem to have the 157th overall schedule. So it does seem he had some opportunities against Top 120 teams.

 

[MrTbone]

Not even close to accurate. The A-10 had 6 top 100 teams, and the Southern only 2, and only 3 of its 10 teams were top 150.

Well here’s at least one model that had a10 and SoCon back to back. So at least close to accurate.

NCAA College Basketball RPI Rankings (updated today)

NCAA college basketball RPI rankings and ratings for 2024, updated daily for all teams and available historically for every day of the 2024 season.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[POMSpidur]

Why don’t you guys just look at the SOS or strength of schedule of both teams?

 

[KE Spider]

Why don’t you guys just look at the SOS or strength of schedule of both teams?

Is there a difference?

 

[PhillySpider]

Zay was a very bad off ball defender. Probably one of our worst

Don't know that any of us can really know this to be true or not. I think off ball defense is the hardest thing to judge on TV or tape when you don't know what's being asked of a kid in his off ball defense. On ball defense its much easier to judge because its pretty evident, but systems and even individual game plans or specific assignments can greatly alter what a player is asked to do off the ball. Just consider the difference off the ball between a packline defense and "deny" defense. Both are man-to-man, but off the ball responsibilities so different. And consider that one of the keys to off ball defense is where your force (or influence) your man to go and where your help will come from etc. Without being privy to our defensive assignments, I don't think we can really know too much on this one. Like I said, this, to me. is the hardest thing (offensively or defensively) to judge from the outside.

 

[Section9.RowD]

I struggle to understand why there is so much angst and friction in this thread ... can't wait for 11/7 .. go Spiders .. .

 

[POMSpidur]

Is there a difference?

UR SOS: 4.48
Citadel SOS: -1.97

That would suggest it’s not really close. So I’d imagine there is a difference

 

[KE Spider]

UR SOS: 4.48
Citadel SOS: -1.97

That would suggest it’s not really close. So I’d imagine there is a difference

My apologies. Misread your previous post.

 

[Eight Legger]

Not even close to accurate. The A-10 had 6 top 100 teams, and the Southern only 2, and only 3 of its 10 teams were top 150.

My apologies for being positive about things. I'll do worse next time.

 

[PhillySpider]

How Mooney handles the rotation on Day one will be interesting. We are in a whole new position with 3 transfers who may command playing time and not a ton of veterans who have a ton of actual playing time for Moon. In addition, I think Mooney has to think about whether or not he intends to be a big player in the portal in the future. Assuming he does, not sure its the best path to limit early opportunities (i.e minutes or starting jobs) just to favor/reward vets. Not saying I think Moon will do this, in fact I think he likely will end up giving his guys the benefit of the doubt generally, but there is a lot more and a lot different stuff going on this year to put a lot of stock in how he's historically done it. We are just in a totally different spot. Add to that a whole new coaching staff.

Its interesting as hell, because there are some on here who are certain, for example, that Grace is a lock to start on Day one. Others are far from sure. And same thing goes goes for Goose, with some sure he starts and others not at all sure. Quinn has seeming been ordained, while Roche and Bigelow are not. Nelson is being handed a job on here it seems. Just not at all sure about any of it. Except Burton. He will start and get heavy minutes! After that, I just don't know bout anything because our situation is so very different than its been in a very long while and not sure how Moon man rolls with that.

 

[Section9.RowD]

My apologies for being positive about things. I'll do worse next time.

Please be more negative ..maybe it will get you some brownie points from some folks who I might be finding a bit annoying right now ..

 

[Section9.RowD]

How Mooney handles the rotation on Day one will be interesting. We are in a whole new position with 3 transfers who may command playing time and not a ton of veterans who have a ton of actual playing time for Moon. In addition, I think Mooney has to think about whether or not he intends to be a big player in the portal in the future. Assuming he does, not sure its the best path to limit early opportunities (i.e minutes or starting jobs) just to favor/reward vets. Not saying I think Moon will do this, in fact I think he likely will end up giving his guys the benefit of the doubt generally, but there is a lot more and a lot different stuff going on this year to put a lot of stock in how he's historically done it. We are just in a totally different spot.

Its interesting as hell, because there are some on here who are certain, for example, that Grace is a lock to start on Day one. Others are far from sure. And same thing goes goes for Goose, with some sure he starts and others not at all sure. Quinn has seeming been ordained, while Roche and Bigelow are not. Nelson is being handed a job on here it seems. Just not at all sure about any of it. Except Burton. He will start and get heavy minutes! After that, I just don't know bout anything because our situation is so very different than its been in a very long while and not sure how Moon man rolls with that.

so many things to consider . and wow a post that doesn't criticize another Spiders alumn ...

 

[spider23]

Philly, all excellent points that I have been pondering on this board as well. This coming season are really an outlier and outside of Mooney's comfort zone. Usually we are really really good about predicting roles and minutes. This year - it would seem that there should be a lot of competition. It does seem from comments that Mooney is already favoring a Nelson PG and Quinn center lineup. Of course I recall Mooney hyping Josh Duinker as potential newcomer of the year, and he really did not give him much PT, so you never know.

Grace. Mooney recruited him back. It doesn't seem it would be to sit behind Quinn and Bigelow. But I don't see a Quinn/Grace front court being real effective in today's game either. Will be interesting to see how Mooney plays it.

 

[GKiller]

I struggle to understand why there is so much angst and friction in this thread ... can't wait for 11/7 .. go Spiders .. .

yeah someone get the thread back on track...how about a ‘You are who recruits you’ lineup? 😉

 

[UR Fan 2]

Tons of minutes to go around....here is my prediction

Day 1

PG Nelson
SG Goose
SF Burton
PF Bigelow
C Grace

at 16 minute mark...Quinn, Roche, Crabtree, Dji, Noyes come in and we run the "posse" at them


Start of A 10 Play

PG Nelson
SG Goose
SF Roche
PF Burton
C Quinn

at 16 minute mark we bring in a lot of depth and run the "posse" at them

 

[SpiderGuy]

I struggle to understand why there is so much angst and friction in this thread ... can't wait for 11/7 .. go Spiders .. .

2 people look at artwork and have 2 different takeaways

Philosophical differences

Attitudes

Semantics

 

[gcarter52]

I can’t wait until the start of the season too!

 

[SpiderK]

Philly, all excellent points that I have been pondering on this board as well. This coming season are really an outlier and outside of Mooney's comfort zone. Usually we are really really good about predicting roles and minutes. This year - it would seem that there should be a lot of competition. It does seem from comments that Mooney is already favoring a Nelson PG and Quinn center lineup. Of course I recall Mooney hyping Josh Duinker as potential newcomer of the year, and he really did not give him much PT, so you never know.

Grace. Mooney recruited him back. It doesn't seem it would be to sit behind Quinn and Bigelow. But I don't see a Quinn/Grace front court being real effective in today's game either. Will be interesting to see how Mooney plays it.

23 good points. This will be the first time in about 15 years that we know or have seen so little of our point guards. Mooney’s offense has been totally dependent on the play of the pg; shooting, passing and low turnovers. It will be fun to see how Nelson, Dji, and others fill this role.

 

[brooklyn brownstone]

this is actually a good point about PGs. And it may tie together some of the ongoing debate. To me, it's another reason Goose starts - Moon starting 2 newcomers in the backcourt (either PG + Roche) together feels like Moon would really have gone full sippy cup and decided he loves living on the wild side.

I think the PG determines a lot about the SG - if Nelson wins it, Goose is likeliest pairing. If DJi wins it, maybe Roche has more of an opportunity (even given Moon's predilection to the known) to start because it adds a shooter. Note: in these assumptions, I'm relying on the yet-unproven theory that Nelson will be more of a shooter/scorer (possibly better pair with Goose) and Dji is more of a slasher (possibly better pair with Roche.)

 

[POMSpidur]

Day 1
Nelson
Goose
Burton
Grace
Quinn

16 minute mark Biggelow and Roche. After that it gets dicey. Too many guys all unproven in the same boat. IE. Crabtree, Dji, & Randolph all around similar positions with Roche likely being in front of them all because he’s more proven and he clearly can make a three here and there.

 

[VT4700]

Well here’s at least one model that had a10 and SoCon back to back. So at least close to accurate.

NCAA College Basketball RPI Rankings (updated today)

NCAA college basketball RPI rankings and ratings for 2024, updated daily for all teams and available historically for every day of the 2024 season.

www.teamrankings.com

So, do you think the conferences are basically equal? Seriously? Torvik, KenPom, and Sagarin all had only 3 of the 10 Southern Conference teams (30%) in the top 150. That means 7 of the 10 were below 150. That's A LOT of bad teams. By comparison, Torvik had 9 A-10 teams in the top 150 (62%). Let's keep it real. The conferences are not close to comparable.

 

[SFspidur]

Have we looked at SRS yet?

 

[SpiderDad75]

How Mooney handles the rotation on Day one will be interesting. We are in a whole new position with 3 transfers who may command playing time and not a ton of veterans who have a ton of actual playing time for Moon. In addition, I think Mooney has to think about whether or not he intends to be a big player in the portal in the future. Assuming he does, not sure its the best path to limit early opportunities (i.e minutes or starting jobs) just to favor/reward vets. Not saying I think Moon will do this, in fact I think he likely will end up giving his guys the benefit of the doubt generally, but there is a lot more and a lot different stuff going on this year to put a lot of stock in how he's historically done it. We are just in a totally different spot. Add to that a whole new coaching staff.

Its interesting as hell, because there are some on here who are certain, for example, that Grace is a lock to start on Day one. Others are far from sure. And same thing goes goes for Goose, with some sure he starts and others not at all sure. Quinn has seeming been ordained, while Roche and Bigelow are not. Nelson is being handed a job on here it seems. Just not at all sure about any of it. Except Burton. He will start and get heavy minutes! After that, I just don't know bout anything because our situation is so very different than its been in a very long while and not sure how Moon man rolls with that.

Great take and super valid.

 

[97spiderfan]

Start of A 10 Play

PG Nelson
SG Goose
SF Roche
PF Burton
C Quinn

at 16 minute mark we bring in a lot of depth and run the "posse" at them

I like this group. Probably our 5 best players. This does leave us a bit on the smallish side, but not too much.

 

[urmite]

So, do you think the conferences are basically equal? Seriously? Torvik, KenPom, and Sagarin all had only 3 of the 10 Southern Conference teams (30%) in the top 150. That means 7 of the 10 were below 150. That's A LOT of bad teams. By comparison, Torvik had 9 A-10 teams in the top 150 (62%). Let's keep it real. The conferences are not close to comparable.

Would you agree that 2021-2022 SoCon was rather similar to 2018-2019 A-10? Which was a big down year for the A-10…
They seem to often be in the 10 to 15 range. Which would be Top 5 of the large number of conferences “nobody thinks about”.

But predicting individual player stats when moving up or down seems to be rather inconsistent. You need to actually observe the player…

 

[gospidersgo]

So, do you think the conferences are basically equal? Seriously? Torvik, KenPom, and Sagarin all had only 3 of the 10 Southern Conference teams (30%) in the top 150. That means 7 of the 10 were below 150. That's A LOT of bad teams. By comparison, Torvik had 9 A-10 teams in the top 150 (62%). Let's keep it real. The conferences are not close to comparable.

I could be wrong but I think the basic idea was that he was not transferring from a MEAC or SWAC level conference to the A10. We don't think of the SoCon as a great conference but the dropoff from the A10 is probably not as severe as it may seem (based on rankings from recent years).