2022-2023 Record Prediction

VT4700

Graduate Assistant
Dec 16, 2016
4,274
1,931
113
Oh buddy… GREAT PG play won’t get us 20 wins. 24 regular season wins is the most in school history… WTF
Well, I disagree, I think it is fine if we disagree here, and that is how I will comment about your opinion. You know how I won't comment on your opinion? By saying WTF.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Long Island Spiders

POMSpidur

Rookie
May 26, 2022
148
74
28
I didn't mean actual advertisements, of course.
Roche hit 110 threes. Quinn went for 15/7/4.
so ... that.
So If they do that we should win 20 games is what you’re saying… now how likely is it that? I’m a firm believer that somebody has to score on bad teams (one of those teams won 10 games and the other won 13). I just don’t expect them to be superstars for the spiders.
 

POMSpidur

Rookie
May 26, 2022
148
74
28
Well, I disagree, I think it is fine if we disagree here, and that is how I will comment about your opinion. You know how I won't comment on your opinion? By saying WTF.
Sorry for hurting your feelings. I just am having a hard time figuring out the thought process. All I’m saying is that Mooney is not to blame if this team doesn’t have a very successful year.
 

97spiderfan

Spider's Club
Feb 2, 2005
13,028
8,479
113
Sorry for hurting your feelings. I just am having a hard time figuring out the thought process. All I’m saying is that Mooney is not to blame if this team doesn’t have a very successful year.
Lol. He is the head coach. We pay him over a million dollar a year to field a successful team. Who should we blame, the fans, the players, the admin? This is his baby, he gets the glory when things are well and the blame when things don't.
 

GKiller

Head Coach
Jun 3, 2003
8,559
4,223
113
Lol. He is the head coach. We pay him over a million dollar a year to field a successful team. Who should we blame, the fans, the players, the admin? This is his baby, he gets the glory when things are well and the blame when things don't.

he's made 3 NCAAs in 16 tries. But the third was last season. That gets him 5 more years w/o blame apparently. 21 years of pay for potentially 3 NCAAs. Personally I'm surprised we have ppl who don't care about accountability at the highest levels but we do. Obv he's safe w his contract extension but no reason this year shouldn't have high expectations, I mean if u weren't an underachieving 3 for 16 already maybe u would get a pass.
 

VT4700

Graduate Assistant
Dec 16, 2016
4,274
1,931
113
devil's advocate ... we finished the regular season with 18 wins last year and then beat URI by 5 in the 1st round. if Gilly doesn't go nuts vs VCU, the season ends at 19.

where have we improved so much? I'm excited about Quinn and I don't expect a huge dropoff, but it's very doubtful we've improved at the 5. I'm excited about Nelson and Dji but it's very doubtful we get better PG play than with Gilly. I'll bite with the MFG fan club and I'm hopeful with Bigelow, but it's doubtful we're better overall at the 4. and we've got the same guys (hopefully a year better) at the 2 and 3.

I'm hoping we do even better than last year, but I don't see this team as more talented.
First of all, I said this year's team could be one of the most talented teams we have had. I never said anything about more talented. Secondly, last year's team had great individual talent, but my biggest fear, questionable 3 point shooting, showed up a lot last year. After Tyler's hot start from 3, he was our 2nd best 3 point shooter at 31% the last 32 games. That is playing almost a whole season where Jacob was the only guy consistently making 3s. It's just hard to win a lot like that.

As a team last year, we only shot 32.9% from 3. Our first 6 games, we shot 40%. Our last 31, we shot 31.3%. Look no farther than that when wondering why we only went 10-8 IC last year. So, you ask where I think we will improve, and there is your answer, and in my opinion, it could not be at a more important area. Yes, we lose Jacob and his 3s, but we add Roche, I like the looks of Bigelow's shot, I feel like Tyler will have a more consistent year from 3, and I think overall we will be better from 3.

Oh yea, and one more thing. Every game we play, we can say, we have Tyler and they don't. :)
 
Last edited:

97spiderfan

Spider's Club
Feb 2, 2005
13,028
8,479
113
he's made 3 NCAAs in 16 tries. But the third was last season. That gets him 5 more years w/o blame apparently. 21 years of pay for potentially 3 NCAAs. Personally I'm surprised we have ppl who don't care about accountability at the highest levels but we do. Obv he's safe w his contract extension but no reason this year shouldn't have high expectations, I mean if u weren't an underachieving 3 for 16 already maybe u would get a pass.
It's just ridiculous, that some people have more allegiance to a man, than they do the University and our program. Been that way for some people forever with Mooney, I just don't get it. Arizona State just canned their football coach on the field after a game, which while poor form, but speaks to the level of accountability that occurs in literally every big time college football and basketball program. These coaches get paid humongous salaries, more than any other employee at the university, but with those salaries come humongous expectations and literally every single person can easily see whether they are met or not by looking at the scoreboard. Except here with some people and Mooney, he gets no blame for the 3 in 16 years for some. There is always an excuse, an asterisk, someone else to pass the blame too.

If he is your buddy, family member, former coach, mentor, I get it, but please have some perspective.
 

spiderman

Spider's Club
Jun 7, 2001
16,724
5,979
113
So If they do that we should win 20 games is what you’re saying… now how likely is it that? I’m a firm believer that somebody has to score on bad teams (one of those teams won 10 games and the other won 13). I just don’t expect them to be superstars for the spiders.
didn't say we "should" win 20 games. said 20 wins is "a reasonable prediction".
 
  • Like
Reactions: plydogg

VT4700

Graduate Assistant
Dec 16, 2016
4,274
1,931
113
Sorry for hurting your feelings. I just am having a hard time figuring out the thought process. All I’m saying is that Mooney is not to blame if this team doesn’t have a very successful year.
Definitely not hurting my feelings here. And, as many know, I have backed Mooney as much as anyone, but no one has really brought up what happens and who is to blame if we have a .500 or below season. Why ruin a rare positive message board with this right now? See if it happens as you predict first, then maybe ask people why they are blaming who they blame? And, it seems a little overboard to say 100% the coach cannot be the blame regardless of what happens this year before the season even starts.
 

spiderman

Spider's Club
Jun 7, 2001
16,724
5,979
113
VT, my fear is that we may not have improved at 3 point shooting. we'll see. we didn't likely improved 3 point shooting at the 1 or 5. we've heard Grace is a great shooter but haven't seen it in 4 years. hoping Goose shoots better is just hope.

plus I don't see where we got any better defensively.

I think Mooney did a great job reloading, but I don't think we're as good as last year ... though I hope we're even more successful.
 

whampas

Graduate Assistant
Jan 2, 2007
3,707
3,299
113
18-13. Hope for better. Spiders not mentioned in Mid-Major top 25. SLU, VCU, GMU, Dayton and Davidson were.
 

VT4700

Graduate Assistant
Dec 16, 2016
4,274
1,931
113
VT, my fear is that we may not have improved at 3 point shooting. we'll see. we didn't likely improved 3 point shooting at the 1 or 5. we've heard Grace is a great shooter but haven't seen it in 4 years. hoping Goose shoots better is just hope.

plus I don't see where we got any better defensively.

I think Mooney did a great job reloading, but I don't think we're as good as last year ... though I hope we're even more successful.
Fair points, but I do think we will be better from 3. I think Quinn will knock some down, and you didn't even mention Roche and Bigelow. Defensively, I think we will be better. Quinn just being 7 feet makes him better because he can block and affect shots. Bigelow should be a huge factor defensively, and Tyler seems big time motivated to be great at that end this year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: urfan1

8legs1dream

Team Manager
Lol. He is the head coach. We pay him over a million dollar a year to field a successful team. Who should we blame, the fans, the players, the admin? This is his baby, he gets the glory when things are well and the blame when things don't.

he gets the glory win, lose, or draw from the members of his fan club
 

VT4700

Graduate Assistant
Dec 16, 2016
4,274
1,931
113
So If they do that we should win 20 games is what you’re saying… now how likely is it that? I’m a firm believer that somebody has to score on bad teams (one of those teams won 10 games and the other won 13). I just don’t expect them to be superstars for the spiders.
I agree that someone has to score on bad teams, and you can't assume greatness from stats while on a bad team. But, also you should not write someone off and assume they will not be good players just because they were on bad teams.

Good team or bad team, Roche proved he can shoot the 3. Good team or bad team, Quinn is a 7 footer with talent. We had a need for both, and both will help us tremendously. I don't think anyone expects them to come in here and be superstars, and I don't think anyone has said close to that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: urfan1

urmite

Head Coach
Gold Member
Dec 2, 2004
9,965
3,156
113
While I don't want to agree with POM, I will state some history that make his statement more reasonable.

Since 1956 we have had 21 season where we were .600 or better on May 1...(.679 in 1954-1955 next was .621 in 1981-1982)

3 of those didn't win 20 games because we played 23, 29, & 30 games.

20 out of 33 is .606...
 

spiderman

Spider's Club
Jun 7, 2001
16,724
5,979
113
including postseason, we've only had less than 16 wins twice the past 15 seasons (excluding shortened season).
7 of those 15 years we had 20 or more, with 19 wins 2 other times.
it's not unreasonable to think we'll get 20 wins if you think this is a postseason team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Long Island Spiders

POMSpidur

Rookie
May 26, 2022
148
74
28
Definitely not hurting my feelings here. And, as many know, I have backed Mooney as much as anyone, but no one has really brought up what happens and who is to blame if we have a .500 or below season. Why ruin a rare positive message board with this right now? See if it happens as you predict first, then maybe ask people why they are blaming who they blame? And, it seems a little overboard to say 100% the coach cannot be the blame regardless of what happens this year before the season even starts.
There is reason because I know there will be people who will blame him and that’s just not understandable to me. So that was the reason for jumping in to make the claim to come back to at the end of the season.
 

RichmondNative

Starter
Dec 16, 2018
849
894
93
Setting the record straight.
The people who are expecting 20 wins are the same people who are going to say Fire Mooney when we’re under 500.
The unrealistic expectations are your fault, not CM’s.
4 teams in the last 10 years have won 20 games and some expect it to be this group. Just seems unrealistic.
I assume you are talking just the regular season, which means the team goes 15-16. I think that is underachievement and if it happens why would fans be happy with the coaching? In terms of what is realistic, I know that after the 2nd round NCAA loss many thought that a sub 500 record was likely; however, that was based on lots of unknowns including the fact that many thought Burton was gone and what Matt Grace would do was also unknown. Then both of them announced they were coming back PLUS the staff pulled in 3 quality transfers in areas of need. In turn, expectations were raised. Essentially everyone praised Mooney for the preparations for this season. Now you are saying that if the team has a losing record it isn’t Mooney’s fault? So if the team makes the NIT or NCAAs, Mooney doesn’t get any credit either, right? Neither statement makes any sense and in addition to that I am sure that the team goals are not something like “finish with a winning record”. The players want to play in the post season just like the fans want to watch them do it.

Go Spiders!
 

PhillySpider

Team Manager
Gold Member
May 14, 2003
1,972
1,226
113
I will have to agree with those who don't see 20 regular season wins and/or a better team than last year. Haven't double checked, but I believe we have won 20 or more regular season games once since 2010-2011. We won 18 last year with the greatest class ever and more experience than any team in NCAA history. We also had 2 program all-timers now gone plus others.

Hard for me to truly see how we can honestly look at what we have and see us as a better team or a 20 regular season win team (which would mean as the 2nd best regular season since 2010-2011). We look to transfers for much of this confidence, but they are certainly IMHO unproven at this level and in this system. Remember we have seen lots of problems with players adapting to the system etc. in the past. In addition, using Quinn as an example - - he put up very similar numbers to grant on a per minute basis last year - - - but at Lafayette. Hard to say how much bigger and more athletic opponents might impact him. And Roche - - - lets think about Blake - - - shot 42+ % from three as a freshman - - then 40+% as a soph for Wagner - - - and shot 36% for us while he was here and drew the ire of many for his shot selection. Loved him, but it wasn't all sunshine and roses. Now if Roche is anywhere near the warrior and player that Blake was etc. I'll be very happy but I sure see risk that he's a largely just a shooter that wont shoot it at the same level against better competition. We just cant know at this level and this system how its going to go. To then put this team down for 2nd best regular season of the last 11 years seems a little (and maybe more than a little) ambitious.

Now, yes its possible for sure - - - but it means everything we are speculating about virtually everyone has to come true. Nelson (or someone) has to be at least close to Gilly, Trey has to be better, Goose has to be better shooting, the three transfers have to measure up to the upsides that are described in this (and other) threads etc. So if Quinn is TJ and Roche is Blake etc. , we could (and in that case probably will) win 20 in the regular season, but I just don't see it all happening. I see specific problems (which, much like the success others see is just speculation) that I don't think will turn out upside and the sheer number of things that have to go our way to hit 20 seems to say it will be tough.

I will go 16-15 and say we'll be better later than earlier.

I will also say this - - - Mooney's teams seem to do much better when expectations are low than when they are high. On both a micro (each individual game) and macro (full season) level. So last year with higher expectations for the year, I thought thought we largely underachieved - - until we had been bad enough that the expectations come post-season were very low and we obviously overachieved those expectations). As I think most expectations will be more reasonable, I think our chances of getting to 20 wins when its largely not expected might be slightly better than normal.
 

urmite

Head Coach
Gold Member
Dec 2, 2004
9,965
3,156
113
I wonder what our 5 to 8 worse opponent's NET/KenPom have been each of the last 8 seasons?

If this season they are worse, would that be a reason to increase the probability of an extra win or two in total?
 
Jan 6, 2016
295
449
63
I'm not going to make a numbers prediction. I do think the beginning of the season will be bumpy, regardless of our opponents. We've got to figure out who does what best in actual game action. That is going to take some time. And it will also take time for the team to gel and the chemistry to develop.

By the end of the season I expect us to be playing well. And I don't know what will happen then. But I agree with the earlier poster(s) who said that we overachieve when our expectations are lower. So I think I am going to go into the season not knowing what to expect (especially at the beginning) and by January we should have a much better sense of where we are.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gcarter52

RichmondNative

Starter
Dec 16, 2018
849
894
93
I will have to agree with those who don't see 20 regular season wins and/or a better team than last year. Haven't double checked, but I believe we have won 20 or more regular season games once since 2010-2011. We won 18 last year with the greatest class ever and more experience than any team in NCAA history. We also had 2 program all-timers now gone plus others.
First, last year’s team was 19-12 in the regular season. In terms of regular season play, the “greatest team ever” underachieved (as you also note in the second part below). To me, the issue last year was the “team” was not playing up to its potential until magic happened in the A10 tournament. I also think it is totally understandable. The Covid years were tough on everyone and I am sure it was hard to be motivated in your 5th or 6th year of college basketball.
I will also say this - - - Mooney's teams seem to do much better when expectations are low than when they are high. On both a micro (each individual game) and macro (full season) level. So last year with higher expectations for the year, I thought thought we largely underachieved - - until we had been bad enough that the expectations come post-season were very low and we obviously overachieved those expectations). As I think most expectations will be more reasonable, I think our chances of getting to 20 wins when its largely not expected might be slightly better than normal.
I agree this this part for both the Spiders and in life in general. Most people like to set goals low so they can surpass them. However, most leaders don’t let their team ”settle” for good and push them to be great.

I think the biggest flaw in the conversations to date is that the comparisons are being made to the wrong team. There is a much larger sample size to draw from than just last year’s team and none of the players were even on the team that I think is a better comparison point - the 2014-2015 team. That team went 7-6 OOC and 12-6 in A-10 play, so 1 short of the magic “20”. I think this year’s team is more talented overall and deeper than THAT team. Thus, I am expecting a slightly better finish and have a stretch goal of 21 wins. I know many say it is all going to come down to PG play. I think the Spiders will be fine at PG. I think it really comes down to Burton. If he is really NBA material, then he needs to prove it and be “the man” all year. He has the athleticism and the drive, he just needs the confidence. If he steps up and always has his A game, then I think there is a very good chance the Spiders win 20+.

By the way, there has only been one season over 20 regular season wins since 2010-2011, which was the 2019-2020 team that also finished 24-7. However, I think the 2016-2017 team could have gotten to 20 wins IF it had played 31 games. For whatever reason UR had 3 seasons in a row with only 30 games (starting 2015-2016).
 
  • Like
Reactions: spider23

brooklyn brownstone

Team Manager
Oct 31, 2007
2,556
327
83
I find it odd to compare a team to a previous version of that team and try to do player vs player swaps to gauge future success. I understand the concept, but think it's a flawed line of thought.

I do think the point about the softness of the OOC can be taken into account in this discussion and that 10 wins should be a fair goal to try and reach OOC. Above that is gravy, below it and there is work to do.

I'd also like to think 10-8 in conference is a goal that can be reached, considering it likely equates to a finish outside the top 6. I think this team has top 6 talent.

I'll take 20 wins I guess is what I'm saying. I'm cautiously optimistic that the pieces that Moon brought in will be good fits for his offense and that will carry the team most games.

If we're at .550 after 20 games, I fear for us all.
 

POMSpidur

Rookie
May 26, 2022
148
74
28
Lol. He is the head coach. We pay him over a million dollar a year to field a successful team. Who should we blame, the fans, the players, the admin? This is his baby, he gets the glory when things are well and the blame when things don't.
This is a rebuild year and you guys are insisting that is not the case. If that was your expectation it would be understandable when the team doesn’t win 20 games here. But I’m sure we can blame mooney for your unrealistic expectations.
 

plydogg

Team Manager
Mar 2, 2018
2,321
2,769
113
This is a rebuild year and you guys are insisting that is not the case. If that was your expectation it would be understandable when the team doesn’t win 20 games here. But I’m sure we can blame mooney for your unrealistic expectations.

My argument against this is that after 17 seasons you should be in a place where you’ve recruited and managed the roster well enough to not be having a rebuild year. The reason our expectations are high is because it looks like we might have a pretty damn good roster.

A team that is fresh off a 2nd round tourney appearance and is bringing back some key players + 3 transfers should not be rebuilding. That team should be able to continue to compete.

We bring back two starters in Burton and Gustavson. Matt Grace had the most minutes off the bench last year, he’s back. Dji and Crabtree played about 7 minutes per game last year, maybe one of them develops into a bigger bench role this year.

We also brought in Neal Quinn, Isaiah Bigelow, and Jason Roche. Quinn just averaged 14.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4 assists and over a block per game. Bigelow averaged 8.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists. Roche shot 39.7% from 3 en route to 13.2 points per game.

Then in addition to the 3 transfers we have Jason Nelson, Malcolm Dread, and Aiden Noues as “new” additions who have a year of learning and practicing with the team. Randolph can pretty much be added here too since he only played 28 minutes last year.

When I look at this roster I don’t see a 15-16 win team. This team has the talent to reach and exceed the 19 win mark. In my eyes the unrealistic expectation is yours.

How can you not get excited when you look at the roster?
 

RichmondNative

Starter
Dec 16, 2018
849
894
93
I find it odd to compare a team to a previous version of that team and try to do player vs player swaps to gauge future success. I understand the concept, but think it's a flawed line of thought.

I do think the point about the softness of the OOC can be taken into account in this discussion and that 10 wins should be a fair goal to try and reach OOC. Above that is gravy, below it and there is work to do.

I'd also like to think 10-8 in conference is a goal that can be reached, considering it likely equates to a finish outside the top 6. I think this team has top 6 talent.

I'll take 20 wins I guess is what I'm saying. I'm cautiously optimistic that the pieces that Moon brought in will be good fits for his offense and that will carry the team most games.
My comparison of teams is not about a player to player comparison, but from an overall standpoint. The roster is one thing to look at, but so is the schedule and outcome. Everything is speculation, but that is what you do before the season starts. History does tend to repeat itself and the head coach is the same. As I said in my first post on this subject, my prediction is my most optimistic one, but based on everything that has happened to date, I think we are in for a “good Mooney” year. This means I don’t expect the Forum to be on fire 🔥 during the season like in years past.

So I agree with the assessment of the OOC and A10 portions of the schedule to get to 20 wins.

I also agree with POM in that having “high[er] expectations” does set oneself up for a possible letdown, but I really think we are going to see a team with a different attitude and energy this year. Can’t wait for the season to start.

Go Spiders!
 

UR Fan 2

Team Manager
May 5, 2005
2,962
542
113
Future looks bright. Matty March will see us back into the NCAA tournament w a strong A10 tourney. Quinn, Roche, Bigelow, Burton, The Goose, Dji, Jason, Crab and the boys will give us enough firepower to surprise, but the biggest improvement comes on Def.....
 

VT4700

Graduate Assistant
Dec 16, 2016
4,274
1,931
113
This is a rebuild year and you guys are insisting that is not the case. If that was your expectation it would be understandable when the team doesn’t win 20 games here. But I’m sure we can blame mooney for your unrealistic expectations.
I would agree about a rebuild year if we didn't land the transfers, and the Nelson, Randolph, Dread, and Noyes class all would be a big part of the rotation and get big minutes. But, we didn't get the transfers just to fill in here and there. Yes, they all have multiple years left, which is great, but there is no denying we expect them to be key pieces THIS year. And, we didn't just get 1, or even just 2, transfers with experience, we got 3. Add those 3 to Tyler, Grace, and Goose, and that is a lot of returning minutes by a lot of talented players. This team should and will win 20+ games.
 

Latest posts