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2021–22 NET Rankings

There are 15-20 teams ahead of us currently that won't remain there, but of course we can't afford any bad losses. I still can't wrap my brain around the fact that the only two completely random teams to start in the top 30 of NET just so happen to be the ones that won at vcu.
 
Eight Legger said:
There are 15-20 teams ahead of us currently that won't remain there, but of course we can't afford any bad losses. I still can't wrap my brain around the fact that the only two completely random teams to start in the top 30 of NET just so happen to be the ones that won at vcu.
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Tough to win at Costco.
 
SpiderGuy said:
All this is interesting, but if we’d have won at a minimum 2 of the 4 losses, this discussion takes on a different meaning. These losses are on us, and easy to see the impact. $hit - no reason we couldn’t or shouldn’t be undefeated at this point. I don’t think that’s unrealistic looking at the schedule to date. I mean 4 fair to decent teams are our losses, not none of those 4 are what I think are really really good teams. Just win.
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Yep but its the reality with a coach as inept as Mooney. Its been the same year after year. Losing 3 or so games we should win in OOC is a pattern every single year. To think we will beat Bonnies VCU Dayton Davidson on the road is a pipe dream and that we wont lose a couple home games we should win, is even more so. Its the moondogs MO.
 
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I think the only way our at-large bid hope stays alive is we must win out into the A10 play. That would put us at 9-4 with a rising NET ranking as this would include a win vs. NC State.

THEN - I think we have to win 13 games in the A10, maybe 14. Which is asking a lot, but something this team can do (we did win 14 two years ago).

So out chances are not gone, but we do have an uphill battle.
 
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SFspidur said:
Spiders debut at #98 with a SOS ranking of 178.

Q1: 0–1
Q2: 1–2
Q3: 1–1
Q4: 3–0

A-10 rankings:
54. Davidson
67. Saint Louis
72. VCU
83. Rhode Island
88. St. Bonaventure
95. Dayton
98. Richmond
125. UMass
149. George Mason
170. Fordham
211. Saint Joseph's
267. Duquesne
281. George Washington
286. La Salle

OOC Schedule:
NC Central (300): Q4 win
Utah State (52): Q2 loss
Georgia State (176): Q4 win
Drake (87): Q2 loss
Hofstra (91): Q3 win
Maryland (155): Q3 loss
Mississippi State (49): Q1 loss
Wofford (114): Q2 win
Northern Iowa (246): Q4 win
Toledo (74): Q2
NC State (136): Q3
Old Dominion (241): Q4
Bucknell (327): Q4

NCAA Statistics

stats.ncaa.org stats.ncaa.org
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Well, the good news is that we are beating the teams we are supposed to... The neutral court losses have been brutal. It is nice to see the team finally defending the "home turf". We need to continue to fiill the Robins Center and establish a home team advantage atmosphere.

SpiderNation -- Rise Up!
 
We dropped to #100 today. Dayton’s at #99.

Somewhat limited number of games over the next week with most schools in exams.
 
To add some perspective Bart Torvik who is a reputable analyst now puts our at large odds at .1 percent. 1 in 1000!

he factors in NET. Pre NET rankings & before we picked up our last 2 road wins it was at ~ 3%. He at least gives us decent odds at auto bid but that’s still a longshot regardless & bit of a crapshoot as we know.

granted I’d put some $ down on Spiders if anyone was offering 1000/1 but u can see how damaging the initial NET is to us. Oof.
 
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8legs1dream said:
So what you are telling me is if we give Maestro Moonie a thousand year extension we are guaranteed to make the Big Dance at least once. I like those odds. The future is bright.
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but it actually means there's only a ~63% chance of making it at least once in 1,000 years if the odds are 1:1,000.
 
GKiller said:
To add some perspective Bart Torvik who is a reputable analyst now puts our at large odds at .1 percent. 1 in 1000!

he factors in NET. Pre NET rankings & before we picked up our last 2 road wins it was at ~ 3%. He at least gives us decent odds at auto bid but that’s still a longshot regardless & bit of a crapshoot as we know.

granted I’d put some $ down on Spiders if anyone was offering 1000/1 but u can see how damaging the initial NET is to us. Oof.
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The realists know it is down to the win the A10 tournament option. Sure there is “a chance” that the Spiders get an at-large, but it is less probable than winning the A10 tournament.
 
GKiller said:
To add some perspective Bart Torvik who is a reputable analyst now puts our at large odds at .1 percent. 1 in 1000!

he factors in NET. Pre NET rankings & before we picked up our last 2 road wins it was at ~ 3%. He at least gives us decent odds at auto bid but that’s still a longshot regardless & bit of a crapshoot as we know.

granted I’d put some $ down on Spiders if anyone was offering 1000/1 but u can see how damaging the initial NET is to us. Oof.
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Team/AQ %/ AL %
SBU/19.3/47.5
UR/18.1/.1
URI/16.8/0
Davidson/12.1/0
VCU/11.0/0
SLU/10.0/1.7
Dayton/5.4/0
GMU/4.1/0
UMass/1.6/0
SJU/.8/0
Fordham/.4/0
Duquesne/.1/0
LaSalle/.1/0
GW/0/0

But how many teams had expectations?
 
If any of the top 7 teams listed above go 15-3 in the A-10 and finish 1st by themselves, I would say chances are above 75% they would get an at large bid. To put teams at 0% is just factoring in what his computer thinks will happen and where they would end up, so I certainly would not read too much into that right now. He has us projected to finish 20-11, so yes, 0.1% sounds about right if we do that.
 
Ok - now getting into pct chances based upon odds, probability theory, metrics,etc. This is where we are and all the quantitative analysis looks stacked against us. Those 4 losses are looking uglier by the day. Repeat - just win.
 
By beating Bradley last night, Toledo dropped ~20 spots to #99, making them a Q3 game for us now. We’re at #98.

Utah State edged up to #50, giving us a second Q1 loss, so…yay?
 
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VT4700 said:
If any of the top 7 teams listed above go 15-3 in the A-10 and finish 1st by themselves, I would say chances are above 75% they would get an at large bid. To put teams at 0% is just factoring in what his computer thinks will happen and where they would end up, so I certainly would not read too much into that right now. He has us projected to finish 20-11, so yes, 0.1% sounds about right if we do that.
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idk about all it depends on those teams sweeping their remaining ooc games. A10 could be back to Juan bid. 15-3 is hard no model nor human is really going to put any A10 team at 15-3 besides St. Bona.

back to Richmond like I said on another thread it will probably take 19 of 22. What do u think VT can we win rest of ooc then go 15-3 in league? Vibe check.
 
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SFspidur said:
By beating Bradley last night, Toledo dropped ~20 spots to #99, making them a Q3 game for us now. We’re at #98.

Utah State edged up to #50, giving us a second Q1 loss, so…yay?
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I feel like the daily fretting can probably wait until about February 14. We should maybe be on weekly or bi-weekly fretting. it's just too volatile a metric at the moment.
 
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No fretting here. I just think the movements are interesting to watch, especially since the NET formula is still a black box. The early season data is particularly interesting precisely because the movements are bigger.
 
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GKiller said:
idk about all it depends on those teams sweeping their remaining ooc games. A10 could be back to Juan bid. 15-3 is hard no model nor human is really going to put any A10 team at 15-3 besides St. Bona.

back to Richmond like I said on another thread it will probably take 19 of 22. What do u think VT can we win rest of ooc then go 15-3 in league? Vibe check.
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Absolutely we can, but I am thinking 14-4 with the right conference wins and a top 2 finish would be enough. 9-4 OOC and 14-4 IC with 2 A-10 tourney wins would give us 25 wins, but who knows? If some of our wins end up a little better quad wise, maybe 23 or 24 wins is enough, but, a top 2 finish IC is key, and I think winning the regular season title would go a long way toward a bid as well.
 
VT4700 said:
Absolutely we can, but I am thinking 14-4 with the right conference wins and a top 2 finish would be enough. 9-4 OOC and 14-4 IC with 2 A-10 tourney wins would give us 25 wins, but who knows? If some of our wins end up a little better quad wise, maybe 23 or 24 wins is enough, but, a top 2 finish IC is key, and I think winning the regular season title would go a long way toward a bid as well.
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Hope so too. While not insurmountable it's not exactly too far from that either. btw if any forecasting includes reaching the A10 finals well our odds to win in that 1 game are much better than losing and getting a bid.

19-3 run would be only way to ensure it imo. Too bad our program never had the urgency from the get go and yes I'm convinced of that listening to players and primarily Mooney this year and over the years. I hope they now realize how locked in they have to be and the run it will take to do what they set out to do in returning this year. Maybe they read these boards and can find out here bc I doubt they get that message internally.

Any moment with a loss or 2 early it will only be about practice games and just getting a top 4 bye to help your A10 odds, and individual accomplishments.
 
KE Spider said:
Only thing I'm reading into this program is it has shot itself in the foot, maybe both, out of the box waaay too many seasons.

Hoping Spiders can get a bid, but damn, come out ready to play from game one.
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This is not the Mooney approach. Always tomorrow, get better throughout the season is our mantra. The sense of urgency or for the now with this program has been gone for years. Just look at his comments coming out of the Bahamas, he thought it was a good experience. WTH, this guy just doesn't get it. Never will.
 
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SFspidur said:
No fretting here. I just think the movements are interesting to watch, especially since the NET formula is still a black box. The early season data is particularly interesting precisely because the movements are bigger.
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Agreed and it makes the 930 to 10am timeslot interesting each morning.
 
VT4700 said:
Absolutely we can, but I am thinking 14-4 with the right conference wins and a top 2 finish would be enough. 9-4 OOC and 14-4 IC with 2 A-10 tourney wins would give us 25 wins, but who knows? If some of our wins end up a little better quad wise, maybe 23 or 24 wins is enough, but, a top 2 finish IC is key, and I think winning the regular season title would go a long way toward a bid as well.
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That's great but you think Moonie correctly solving a Sudoku puzzle would be enough to get us in the NCAA's
 
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While I am definitely not uber excited about our current position, there is still plenty of time and opportunity to move up in the rankings. We need to avoid bad losses big time. Winning that game against NC State feels like a must have for our OOC schedule despite their current position in the NET rankings. They will undoubtedly move up themselves and at some point we need to have a big name win. It's people that pick the teams, not the NET rankings. Also going 0-4 on neutral courts will not look good at all.
 
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urmite said:
Team/AQ %/ AL %
SBU/19.3/47.5
UR/18.1/.1
URI/16.8/0
Davidson/12.1/0
VCU/11.0/0
SLU/10.0/1.7
Dayton/5.4/0
GMU/4.1/0
UMass/1.6/0
SJU/.8/0
Fordham/.4/0
Duquesne/.1/0
LaSalle/.1/0
GW/0/0

But how many teams had expectations?
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His % seems silly to me. Dayton beat Kansas in OOC and he gives them 0% chance of an at large?? Thats nuts!! If they win out in OOC it wouldnt surprise me if they get ranked. The NET is a barometer only. If they play great from here on out the committee will look at the fact that bad losses occurred in first weeks of the season.
 
fatherspider said:
His % seems silly to me. Dayton beat Kansas in OOC and he gives them 0% chance of an at large?? Thats nuts!! If they win out in OOC it wouldnt surprise me if they get ranked. The NET is a barometer only. If they play great from here on out the committee will look at the fact that bad losses occurred in first weeks of the season.
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Of course if Dayton wins enough of the remaining games they will get an at large bid, and I guarantee you Torvik's algorithms agrees with that premise. It also thinks that there is a ~0% chance Dayton will actually win enough of its remaining games to get an at large bid.

They already have 3 Q4 losses... its not like Kansas is the only game they played.
 
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fan2011 said:
Of course if Dayton wins enough of the remaining games they will get an at large bid, and I guarantee you Torvik's algorithms agrees with that premise. It also thinks that there is a ~0% chance Dayton will actually win enough of its remaining games to get an at large bid.

They already have 3 Q4 losses... its not like Kansas is the only game they played.
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If the entire selection to the dance is based off of NET rankings why have a committee at all. Wakes Duncan/childress team lost to chaminade in the Maui classic and ended up a number 1 seed. I guess that could never happen again with the NET.
But whatever, I guess he's right, they have 0% chance to get an at large because they came out of the box slow.
 
fatherspider said:
If the entire selection to the dance is based off of NET rankings why have a committee at all. Wakes Duncan/childress team lost to chaminade in the Maui classic and ended up a number 1 seed. I guess that could never happen again with the NET.
But whatever, I guess he's right, they have 0% chance to get an at large because they came out of the box slow.
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The entire selection isn't off the NET. These metrics are used because the committee members don't have perfect knowledge of all 358 D1 teams, and need some sort of trusted reasonable numbers to compare teams, wins, resumes etc. The committee members have never seen the majority of D1 teams play in any given season, and have seen many of the teams they are considering for the tournament play once, if at all. The metrics are tools the committee uses, but at the end of the day people are making all the decisions on who is selected and where they are seeded.
 
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And by what fan2011 posts that's why if years ago Mooney and Co started scheduling as many P5/6 away games possibly UR could be thought of as in the same category as Cheney's Temple teams. Possibly given the benefit of the doubt with the selection process. So since committee members haven't seen all the D1 teams, when someone mentions how about the Spiders, some will say who are they? Are they going to attract a TV audience? No.

When UR gets an at-large bid, they definitely earned it. The Spiders had/have everything to become a major player for years within the mid-major classification. The one exception is a coach who isn't scared to fail.
 
fan2011 said:
The entire selection isn't off the NET. These metrics are used because the committee members don't have perfect knowledge of all 358 D1 teams, and need some sort of trusted reasonable numbers to compare teams, wins, resumes etc. The committee members have never seen the majority of D1 teams play in any given season, and have seen many of the teams they are considering for the tournament play once, if at all. The metrics are tools the committee uses, but at the end of the day people are making all the decisions on who is selected and where they are seeded.
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Ok How many teams have made it as an at large with a 50+ NET ranking. Not many I would assume. NET is a very flawed system… more flawed than RpI IMO. Now with NET when a teams ranking is skewed it has a double effect in the quad system and that goes both ways.
 
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