Since this is a forum where differences in opinions are discussed, I will throw my differing opinion in the ring.
80sfan you said that the 3 potential grad transfers are likely to stay since (a) it appears that Mooney will keep his job until his contact ends and (b) because liking the coach is a main reason that players stay.
Point A - I agree with you that IF Mooney is fired then there is one less reason for the potential grad transfers to stay (ie they have a greater chance of transferring).
Point B - As other posters have noted (8leg, Tbone, Broc), liking the coach does not seem to matter based on recent history (Fore, Oddo). To me, liking CM is going to be the least significant factor on whether they stay or go. The primary factors are going to be (1) how well does the team fare this year (2) what other options does each player have and at least in the case of Nick (3) health.