Standings question
- Thread starter SpiderDad75
- Start date
I see us at a 6th or 7th seed, battling against GW. Bad news is GW has easier schedule down the stretch, but they must win all 3. We just need to win 1 really for 6th seed. As a 6th seed or 7th seed - we are likely looking at Fordham, URI, or St. Joes in first round. I would like to avoid St. Joes if possible.
6th is firming up as our most likely seed at 55%. That would have us face the winner of the 11–14 game. Duquesne has 65% chance of being the 14, with La Salle essentially the other possibility there. The 11 spot is more open, with UMass, URI, and St. Joe's all with decent chances, and even Fordham with an 11% chance.
Our double-bye chances have crept up ever so slightly to 6%. 90+% chance we end up in the 5–6–7 range.
Our double-bye chances have crept up ever so slightly to 6%. 90+% chance we end up in the 5–6–7 range.
If we win our remaining 3 games, and VCU beats St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis and St. Bonaventure win the other games, How would things stand? I believe we would pass St. Bonaventure and be tied with Saint Louis, but not sure how tie breaker would work.
Too many “if conditions”. They never play out as we would like. I hope but have not much confidence that we win all of the last 3 games. It is sad that this late in the season we are hoping for multiple scenarios to fall our way. We did too much damage to ourselves along the way (example - vs VCU twice, St J blowout, etc.)
Provided we win out, putting us at 12–6...
- Bona will be a game short since their postponed game against GW from 12/30 has not been rescheduled, so if they get two more losses down the stretch, we'd finish ahead of them as they'd be 11–6. One of the losses would come at our hands. The second would be most likely to come, as you say, to VCU. (@ St. Joe's is their other remaining game.)
- SLU will play all 18 games, and the loss to us would tie them us in the loss column. An additional loss to URI or VCU would put us ahead of them without needing tiebreakers. If we both finish 12–6, we'd be 1–1 head-to-head, so then you go to record against the best teams in descending order, but it gets complicated if there are ties. We're both 0–1 vs. Davidson, we'd be 1–0 vs. Dayton while they're 1–1, and they'd be 1–0 vs. VCU while we're 0–2.
Again, this is all only in the case where we win out, which has a 9% chance of happening according to KenPom predictions.
- Bona will be a game short since their postponed game against GW from 12/30 has not been rescheduled, so if they get two more losses down the stretch, we'd finish ahead of them as they'd be 11–6. One of the losses would come at our hands. The second would be most likely to come, as you say, to VCU. (@ St. Joe's is their other remaining game.)
- SLU will play all 18 games, and the loss to us would tie them us in the loss column. An additional loss to URI or VCU would put us ahead of them without needing tiebreakers. If we both finish 12–6, we'd be 1–1 head-to-head, so then you go to record against the best teams in descending order, but it gets complicated if there are ties. We're both 0–1 vs. Davidson, we'd be 1–0 vs. Dayton while they're 1–1, and they'd be 1–0 vs. VCU while we're 0–2.
Again, this is all only in the case where we win out, which has a 9% chance of happening according to KenPom predictions.
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We aren't winning our last 3, that isn't happening. We haven't beaten one team as good as SLU or Dayton all year, Bonnie's we did beat, but don't see us going up to Olean on their senior day.
If there is one thing our team has shown us is that they are consistent. Consistent in that they can beat lower level, bad teams but anytime they are matched up with someone with equal talent/skill, they lose. Remarkably consistent if you ask me.
Thanks, this is helpful. I understand it is a low probability of winning our last 3 days against top 100 teams, but at least we control most of our destiny with VCU's help. VCU may have a season 57 NET ranking, but they have been recently playing at a much higher level.
VCU has played a bunch of lower tier teams in the league the past 5 games, hence their 5-0 record. Last good team, they played, Dayton, beat them by 30. This VCU squad is one of the more average ones over the past decade, still beat out best class ever though handily.
VCU over the past decade has been one of the top mid-majors in the country, so yes I would say this team is more average with their other teams during that time period. VCU had gotten better as the season has progressed, which means it is playing better than what their NET ranking would imply. Yes, they lost to Dayton, but also beat Dayton the 1st time they played. I don't know how to calculate a NET ranking for just A10 games, but I would bet they have the highest. Richmond would be better off playing them in the finals, if we make it that far.
Yeah, if we win out, I’ll be at the Robins Center with Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy to present Mooney’s 12-year extension to him personally.
I am not sure I would put VCU above Dayton. Dayton is 11-3 with a 1 point loss to VCU & GMU.
Looking at A-10 games only I would say the offense & defense of the Top 6 are:
Team/Off/Def
Dayton/71.4/59.4
SLU/72.9/65.3
SBU/72.7/66.1
Davidson/75.7/69.7
VCU/67.3/62.3
UR/70.3/68.2
That is good data to consider. It doesn't seem to line up with NET. Not sure which is more accurate. Thanks for posting.
Remember that is A-10 conference games only. I basically took 2/3rd of Kenpom ratings...
VCU led by as many as 12 in the first half, then managed to go scoreless for almost the first 6 minutes of the second half and Mason has taken the lead.
Fordham trying to hold off La Salle in the closing minutes after leading most of the game by double digits but then letting the Explorers back into it.
Dayton pounding UMass and Davidson just finished stomping Duquesne...no surprises there, although Davidson was only up 3 at the half.
Fordham trying to hold off La Salle in the closing minutes after leading most of the game by double digits but then letting the Explorers back into it.
Dayton pounding UMass and Davidson just finished stomping Duquesne...no surprises there, although Davidson was only up 3 at the half.
8legs1dream
Graduate Assistant
Interesting that we're the second "most locked in" team with that 61%. Only Duquense at 65% for dead-last 14th has a higher chance at any spot.
Amusing that Duquesne won their first A-10 game against UMass and have been on a 13-game losing streak since. Dambrot did so well at Akron (.687 winning percentage and 12 straight 20+ win seasons following a 19-win first year), but things are quickly going in the wrong direction for him after it looked like he had the Dukes improving in his first few years.
Amusing that Duquesne won their first A-10 game against UMass and have been on a 13-game losing streak since. Dambrot did so well at Akron (.687 winning percentage and 12 straight 20+ win seasons following a 19-win first year), but things are quickly going in the wrong direction for him after it looked like he had the Dukes improving in his first few years.
8legs1dream
Graduate Assistant
I count 26 kids on Verbal Commits that either left the team or transferred from Duquesne in the last 4 classes. That's not a great look.
He recruited well there… Eric Williams starts for Oregon, Sincere Carry scored 42 for Kent State the other day. Not sure if most guys left for better opportunities or what. I did read something recently where Dambrot said something to the effect of “I didn’t like the chemistry, so we needed to blow it all up and start over.”
Tavian Dunn-Martin leading scorer at FGCU, one of the Weathers brothers. I actually am not sure that Dambrot recruited Williams--I think he ran Williams out.
Chad Baker just had a big game for SDSU, albeit in losing a close game to Boise State. The Duquesne transfer has struggled on D and with turnovers, but has been coming on lately and one of the most skilled offensive players.
Still have a shot at 4th or even 3rd by my count, though we obviously have to win out to finish 12–6.
Assuming we do that, an additional Bona loss to VCU drops the Bonnies behind us with a final record of 11–6.
Getting third involves a bit more to consider. At a minimum, it requires the above plus a Dayton loss to Davidson in their finale...that would put us tied with Dayton at 12–6, but SLU is also in the mix at 10–6 with the possibility of joining that 12–6 group (URI and VCU remaining for them). But either way, I think we win the tiebreaker.
If SLU loses one of their final two, then it's just us and Dayton and we win the head-to-head tiebreaker. If SLU also gets to 12–6, the group records would be the Spiders at 2–1, SLU at 2–2, and Dayton at 1–2. So either way we get the 3-seed.
If all of that Dayton/SLU stuff happens but Bona beats VCU, we still get the 4-seed.
And all of that said, we're still way more likely to end up a 5 or 6 seed.
Assuming we do that, an additional Bona loss to VCU drops the Bonnies behind us with a final record of 11–6.
Getting third involves a bit more to consider. At a minimum, it requires the above plus a Dayton loss to Davidson in their finale...that would put us tied with Dayton at 12–6, but SLU is also in the mix at 10–6 with the possibility of joining that 12–6 group (URI and VCU remaining for them). But either way, I think we win the tiebreaker.
If SLU loses one of their final two, then it's just us and Dayton and we win the head-to-head tiebreaker. If SLU also gets to 12–6, the group records would be the Spiders at 2–1, SLU at 2–2, and Dayton at 1–2. So either way we get the 3-seed.
If all of that Dayton/SLU stuff happens but Bona beats VCU, we still get the 4-seed.
And all of that said, we're still way more likely to end up a 5 or 6 seed.
So why aren’t the spiders shown as a sliver for 4th seed? If we win out and Bonnie’s lose to the hippies. Aren’t we fourth?
Thank you. Seems like a lot of analysis.
Richmond needs to win out and needs either Dayton to lose to Davidson or Bonies to lose to VCU for Richmond to get a double bye.
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