So us us and VCU beat the Bonnies. Allows StL to take 4th is more likely than us beating Dayton and Bonnies and VCU beating the Bonnies. If we lose to Dayton beating the Bonnies won’t matter so I question those %s
Standings question
- Thread starter SpiderDad75
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Up to a 10% chance of double bye, but chances of 6th are now at 65%. We can do no worse than 7th.
I really don’t think we want to be on the same side as Dayton/VCU. Hopefully we some how finish as a 4 or 5 seed with Davidson as the 1. Obviously even better if we get a little help and become the 4.
I took statistics at Richmond a long time ago but this model SF keeps posting makes no sense to me.
VCU against St Bonaventure is 4 pt favorites and ESPN has their win percentage at 67%.
Richmond tonight is 2 point favorites and ESPN has our win percentage at 55%.
If both of the most probable outcomes happen tonight, then Richmond will be a 3 or 4 (or higher) point favorite against St Bonaventure on Friday night. This spread would imply a >60% chance of a Richmond win and a victory would seal the 4th seed for Richmond.
I’m too lazy — and likely would get it wrong — to do the calculation as to what these percentages and outcomes imply, but it should be a lot higher than 10% chance.
VCU against St Bonaventure is 4 pt favorites and ESPN has their win percentage at 67%.
Richmond tonight is 2 point favorites and ESPN has our win percentage at 55%.
If both of the most probable outcomes happen tonight, then Richmond will be a 3 or 4 (or higher) point favorite against St Bonaventure on Friday night. This spread would imply a >60% chance of a Richmond win and a victory would seal the 4th seed for Richmond.
I’m too lazy — and likely would get it wrong — to do the calculation as to what these percentages and outcomes imply, but it should be a lot higher than 10% chance.
Btw, read this today:
In the past 10 A-10 tournaments, only No. 6 seed Saint Louis in 2019 and No. 5 seed VCU in 2015 have won the tournament without a top-four seed and by winning four games in four days
In the past 10 A-10 tournaments, only No. 6 seed Saint Louis in 2019 and No. 5 seed VCU in 2015 have won the tournament without a top-four seed and by winning four games in four days
SLU can still factor into 4 seed too. But we won’t be a 3 or 4 pt favorite AT St. Bona not sure why u think that so that’s 1 big math prob there. Also I saw your GNerd comment to me. That didn’t deserve removal. Gone b4 I could like it.
Ha, good points. I was only messing with you — I know I’m an optimistic fan! GNerd was definitely said in an endearing matter.
So if there is a 3 way tie between Richmond, St Bonaventure and SLU (ie Richmond wins out, SLU wins out and Bonnie lose out), we would not get the 4th seed?
Yeah, not sure why we would be favored at Bona, even if Osun is out, as tree mighty be tonight at VCU. We can't be tied with them, though, because they will only play 17 games and we will play 18. If we end up tied with SLU, head to head is also tired and then it goes to record against the first place team, second place team, etc., until it's broken.
We both lost to Davidson, we went 0-2 against VCU and they play them Saturday. Not sure if 0-1 is better than 0-2 but I think it is for this purpose, so if VCU is second, that might break the tie in SLU's favor. If not, then us beating Dayton tonight would give us the spot (I think) because we'd be 1-0 against them but SLU is 1-1.
We both lost to Davidson, we went 0-2 against VCU and they play them Saturday. Not sure if 0-1 is better than 0-2 but I think it is for this purpose, so if VCU is second, that might break the tie in SLU's favor. If not, then us beating Dayton tonight would give us the spot (I think) because we'd be 1-0 against them but SLU is 1-1.
I don’t know where you are getting your percentages from but Richmond is a -2 pt favorite tonight and is trending to -2.5/-3
Thank you. I didn’t know that’s how the tie breaker worked to determine seeding. What a dumb system.
Then you should bet it when it happens. Literally a way to show how surprised you are.
Ha, I'm not a gambler. I just can't remember the last time we were favored on the road against a team equal to or better than us. Maybe if multiple starters are guaranteed to be out for them, we would be favored, but even with only Osunniyi out, I just don't see it.
Here's the official breakdown, and it does appear that 0-2 is worse than 0-1, so we would lose out there. We need to win these two and Dayton and Bona need to lose out, it appears. Obviously if we beat them both, that helps!
Ok hold on, hold on. So basically we need SLU to lose one of the next two to either Rhode Island or VCU as well.Here's the official breakdown, and it does appear that 0-2 is worse than 0-1, so we would lose out there. We need to win these two and Dayton and Bona need to lose out, it appears. Obviously if we beat them both, that helps!
Then, we would need Richmond to win the next two and St Bonaventure to lose tonight to VCU. This is the scenario I outlined in my original post this morning.
I mean has to >50% chance SLU loses one of the next two, yes?
Every scenario has to involve us winning tonight and at Bona. If we lose either, we are done.
We can't finish tied with Bona, so if they win either of their last two, they finish ahead of us. But if they lose both and we win both, we finish ahead of them. (They would lose at VCU and vs. us.)
If we finish tied with SLU only, we lose the tiebreaker to them. (We finish ahead of them if we win out and they lose either at Rhody or home vs. VCU.)
If we finish tied with Dayton only, that means we beat them tonight and we would have the tiebreaker over them. (They would need to lose to us and at home to Davidson.)
If we finish in a three-way tie with SLU and Dayton, the round-robin records would be:
Richmond 2-1
SLU 2-2
Dayton 1-2
So we would get the spot in that scenario.
We can't finish tied with Bona, so if they win either of their last two, they finish ahead of us. But if they lose both and we win both, we finish ahead of them. (They would lose at VCU and vs. us.)
If we finish tied with SLU only, we lose the tiebreaker to them. (We finish ahead of them if we win out and they lose either at Rhody or home vs. VCU.)
If we finish tied with Dayton only, that means we beat them tonight and we would have the tiebreaker over them. (They would need to lose to us and at home to Davidson.)
If we finish in a three-way tie with SLU and Dayton, the round-robin records would be:
Richmond 2-1
SLU 2-2
Dayton 1-2
So we would get the spot in that scenario.
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I don't keep up with the moving line. But that is where I saw it 12 hours before betting opened...
Double bye is obviously gone...zeroing in on the 6th seed at 83% chance, though 5 and 7 are still possible. As the 6, we'd play the 11–14 winner, which is firming up to be UMass–La Salle. Big slate of games tonight will obviously make things clearer.
Isn't our goal each year to be a Top 4 seed in the A-10 tournament? Another goal not met by Mooney and the best class ever.
Nope...we'd be 10–7 and GMU would be 7–8, each with one game left. So the worst we could be is 10–8 and the best they could be is 8–8.
Similarly, a SLU win tonight means we can't get fifth, because they'd be a game ahead of us with one to play and they have any conceivable tiebreaker. Tied head-to-head, both 0–1 against Davidson, we're 0–2 against VCU and they can't be worse than 0–1, and we're 0–1 against Dayton while they're 1–1.
So tonight's results could lock us into the 6th spot even before the final game.
Another typical Mooney tournament... Beat some cupcake to get your 20th win, then get roasted by a legit team. Season over. So predictable.
So unless I screwed up somewhere in my analysis, tonight's SLU win and GMU loss mean we're locked in as the 6-seed.
Yeah, bad luck is why we can't ever win close games...the bad luck of having Mooney as our coach.
I don’t believe in good or bad luck in sports. Sure it may seem that either is a thing but they’re really not. Good teams don’t lose games due to “bad luck” they make little plays letting diving for loose balls, REBOUNDING, playing hard nosed defense and smart plays throughout the course of the game that eliminate losing in some of the ways we have this year. Sure some teams have made game winners against us this year but in how many of those games did we win the battle in any of the things I just mentioned? That’s right ZERO.
I do enjoy the discussion, factors and calculating the Spiders seed in the A10 tournament! As if it really mattered...the team has never won the A10 reg season title and only won the A10 championship once in 20 years! Have only played in the final 3 times in 20 years and lost 2 out of 3! And this is a down year for the conference! 
Bob agrees that we are locked in as the 6-seed.
URI is now in the driver's seat for the 11-seed. They're a half game behind UMass in the 10–11 race, so if both win or both lose their final games, URI remains the 11. It would take a URI win at St. Joe's and a UMass loss at GMU for them to flip spots, which is certainly possible.
URI is now in the driver's seat for the 11-seed. They're a half game behind UMass in the 10–11 race, so if both win or both lose their final games, URI remains the 11. It would take a URI win at St. Joe's and a UMass loss at GMU for them to flip spots, which is certainly possible.
Yes, VCU and Davidson would both be 15–3 and split the head-to-head, but VCU would be 1–1 against third-place Dayton while Davidson would be 0–1.
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