Season Starts Friday!!! - Predictions for Season

[SpiderFan]

Season kicks off Friday night against VMI, here's my season predictions, game-by-game:

VMI - W
ODU - W
Robert Morris - W
Hampton - W
Maryland - L
Kansas St/BC - L
@ Bucknell - L
Wake Forest - L
UMBC - W
Texas Tech - L
@ JMU - L
@ Oral Roberts - W
@ Davidson - L
Fordham - W
@ GW - W
St. Bona - L
@ St. Joe's - W
@ Dayton - L
GMU - W
Rhode Island - L
Duquesne - W
@ VCU - L
GW - W
@ La Salle - W
@ GMU - W
VCU - L
Davidson - L
@ Fordham - W
@ UMass - W
St. Louis - W

That gives us a record of 17-13. A-10 record of 11-7 and OOC record of 6-6. Home record of 10-6; neutral 0-2; away 7-5 on the road.

 

[SpiderTrap]

Spiderfan - I think your outlook is a best case scenario for this group. I think the key for this team is get off to a good start. I think the team last year quit on themselves and each other halfway through the season. And if the same happens this year - I can see it happening again. I have us around 16-14 and 9-9 in the league. Not a great year by any means - but maybe enough to sneak into the bottom half of the NIT.

I hope I am wrong. But I think we are hoping too much for our frosh to have a major impact this year and that generally does not happen with our program.

 

[spider23]

VMI - W
ODU - L - Ghost of Godwin loss
Robert Morris - W
Hampton - W
Maryland - L
Kansas St/BC - W
@ Bucknell - W
Wake Forest - W
UMBC - W
Texas Tech - W
@ JMU - W
@ Oral Roberts - W
@ Davidson - L
Fordham - W
@ GW - W
St. Bona - W
@ St. Joe's - W
@ Dayton - L
GMU - L
Rhode Island - W
Duquesne - W
@ VCU - W
GW - L
@ La Salle - L
@ GMU - W
VCU - L
Davidson - W
@ Fordham - W
@ UMass - W
St. Louis - W

22-8 overall
12-6 conference

OK, I'll play devils advocate - Fore, SDW and TJ stay healthy all year and play at a high level. Julius gets over his injury and contributes solid all around play. Marshall finds a role and hits 3's and rebounds and plays like a senior. Paul gets 7 minutes a game and comes along. This allows the three freshman to step in and do their thing, without the weight of the world. We edge Davidson in the A10 final - 78-76.

 

[urmite]

And here is the expected spreads before the season starts. A negative means we will be favored by that many (so will give that many points).

VMI – W (-14)
ODU – W (-7)
Robert Morris – W (-17)
Hampton – W (-20)
Maryland – L (+4)
Kansas St – L (+5)
or
BC – L (-6)
@ Bucknell – L (-13)
Wake Forest – L (-4)
UMBC – W (-17)
Texas Tech – L (+1)
@ JMU – L (+2)
@ Oral Roberts – W (-4)
@ Davidson – L (+4)
Fordham – W (-8)
@ GW – W (+3)
St. Bona – L (-4)
@ St. Joe's – W (+3)
@ Dayton – L (+9)
GMU – W (-10)
Rhode Island – L (+1)
Duquesne – W (-10)
@ VCU – L (+10)
GW – W (-4)
@ La Salle – W ((+2)
@ GMU – W (-2)
VCU – L (+2)
Davidson – L (-3)
@ Fordham – W (-1)
@ UMass – W (-2)
St. Louis – W (-13)

The W/L is from original poster. If the spreads are correct then 19-11, 10-8.

 

[FrontRoyalSpider]

I hope we don"t get swept by the Broad Street Savages!

 

[spiderman]

I hope we don"t get swept by the Broad Street Savages!

why, FRS? why do you keep going there? it's like you want to incite us against you all the time. it's got to be intentional, right? I mean, a UR grad would get that.

 

[PASpider]

You must include a loss in one of our first four games. It seems to be a trend that we lose a game early that we should win, and pick up a victory a few games later against a team from a major conference.

 

[gospidersgo]

I understand the cautious outlook of many, but I think we have enough high level A10 talent returning that 18-20 wins is a very reasonable goal. We have the best front court player in the conference paired with what might end up being the best guard tandem in the conference. That is a great starting point and I think those 3 can will us to a .500 record almost by themselves. And I firmly believe our freshmen are talented and driven enough to push this team beyond last years results.

 

[FrontRoyalSpider]

So it's unacceptable to express my hope that our Spiders don't lose
both games against VCU?

So an alum should not voice support for his alma mater on the school's sports fan web site.

Go figure

FRS
UR. CLASS of 1976

 

[Not-A-Homer]

I understand the cautious outlook of many, but I think we have enough high level A10 talent returning that 18-20 wins is a very reasonable goal. We have the best front court player in the conference paired with what might end up being the best guard tandem in the conference. That is a great starting point and I think those 3 can will us to a .500 record almost by themselves. And I firmly believe our freshmen are talented and driven enough to push this team beyond last years results.

Do not disagree with your analysis, but, a .500 record 2-years in a row with a 12-year coach is not acceptable. 18-20 wins would be a high achieving year for this group.

 

[spiderman]

So it's unacceptable to express my hope that our Spiders don't lose
both games against VCU?

So an alum should not voice support for his alma mater on the school's sports fan web site.

Go figure

FRS
UR. CLASS of 1976

"hope we don't get swept" is voicing your support? your wording is consistent in this manner. you intentionally aggravate. the board has let you know it's irritating, yet you continue. I'm sure you'll let us know what the VCU board thinks again soon, right? despite being told here how many times that we don't want to hear it?

 

[spiderman]

it's rational to have lower expectations but as GO said, we do have some really strong pieces. the question marks are Marshall and Julius, plus the young guns. the preseason propaganda tells us Marshall and Julius are two of the most improved in the program. if so, we're pretty loaded. the freshmen can be blended in without a big burden on their shoulders.
if Wood and Johnson are as ready as they say, we can have a great year.

 

[Spiders05]

Keep in mind that the "Voices" pieces are truly the voices of the athletes, not the AD PR machine. Wood talking about how he has to be accountable and how he's more ready now than ever is him speaking - not the department.

For Wood to put statements out there like he did, he must feel good about his effort. I for one wouldn't want to throw stuff out for public consumption only to fall flat. I think he steps it up a notch this year.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

Based purely on the grainy video of the Euro trip, it looked to me like JJ is improved, and Marshall is not. In one of the preseason pieces (maybe the "Backcourt") one, I think Mooney said JJ is no longer trying to adjust, he is adjusted and is now playing. I think the video evidence from the Euro trip would support that. It did not support the idea that Marshall has focused on or improved anything additional to his good 3-point shooting. I really hope I am wrong on that.

 

[keefusb]

Hehe - spiderman said Wood and Johnson...

Seriously, I think we could go 17-13 this season, and with a strong finish and a signature OOC win, we could sneak into the NIT.

 

[Spideroldie]

A couple of predictions: First, we now have the personnel that is a perfect fit for our "system," which requires that all five guys on the floor be good shooters, and be able to catch, dribble and pass the ball. We now have that, depending on what players we put on the court together. So, our potential this year is high, if we maximize the use of our talent. To me this means that a 20-win season is within reach, but only if we put our best shooters and ball-handlers (and all-around players) on the court, which has to include 20 minutes+ of time for Sherod, Buckingham and Golden. If we give these guys enough time, so that the chemistry really develops, then this team can be VERY good, simply because our back-court and TJ provide 3 players who have the potential to be all-A-10.

However, if we fall back into old habits, like playing guys simply because they have experience in the system (MW and JJ) and we play them even though they are not performing very well, then I see us dropping back to 15-17 wins. If I am shocked and amazed and both MW and JJ show dramatic improvement, and they EARN more playing time than MW and JJ, then we could also win 20 games, but I see this scenario as a less likely path to the post-season. Our best line-ups, in my view include bringing in GG, MW, and JJ (along with Kwesi) off the bench. We would then have a great bench to go along with a dynamic offensive line-up.

No matter what happens, and who we give minutes to, this will be a stronger, deeper and much more fun to watch team than last year's team. Mortal lock!

 

[MrTbone]

A couple of predictions: First, we now have the personnel that is a perfect fit for our "system," which requires that all five guys on the floor be good shooters, and be able to catch, dribble and pass the ball. We now have that, depending on what players we put on the court together. So, our potential this year is high, if we maximize the use of our talent. To me this means that a 20-win season is within reach, but only if we put our best shooters and ball-handlers (and all-around players) on the court, which has to include 20 minutes+ of time for Sherod, Buckingham and Golden. If we give these guys enough time, so that the chemistry really develops, then this team can be VERY good, simply because our back-court and TJ provide 3 players who have the potential to be all-A-10.

However, if we fall back into old habits, like playing guys simply because they have experience in the system (MW and JJ) and we play them even though they are not performing very well, then I see us dropping back to 15-17 wins. If I am shocked and amazed and both MW and JJ show dramatic improvement, and they EARN more playing time than MW and JJ, then we could also win 20 games, but I see this scenario as a less likely path to the post-season. Our best line-ups, in my view include bringing in GG, MW, and JJ (along with Kwesi) off the bench. We would then have a great bench to go along with a dynamic offensive line-up.

No matter what happens, and who we give minutes to, this will be a stronger, deeper and much more fun to watch team than last year's team. Mortal lock!

The notable attribute missing from this analysis is defense. Even without five shooters last year we had the most potent offense I've seen in 25 years and one that was highly efficient. Our defense has to better this year or we should probably expect similar results.

 

[Eight Legger]

VMI - L
ODU - L
Robert Morris - W
Hampton - L
Maryland - L
Kansas St/BC - L
@ Bucknell - L
Wake Forest - L
UMBC - W
Texas Tech - L
@ JMU - L
@ Oral Roberts - L
@ Davidson - L
Fordham - W
@ GW - W
St. Bona - W
@ St. Joe's - L
@ Dayton - L
GMU - W
Rhode Island - L
Duquesne - W
@ VCU - L
GW - W
@ La Salle - L
@ GMU - L
VCU - W
Davidson - W
@ Fordham - W
@ UMass - W
St. Louis - W

A10 TOURNEY
W
W
W
W
W

NCAA TOURNEY
W
W

 

[keefusb]

Keys to the season are maintaining a similar level of offensive efficiency as last season, and playing much better defense than we did.

 

[97spiderfan]

I see this team probably as a 20 win team, akin to what we have had the past 5 years. This team has some real talent and we will some big games. Likewise, this team has some noticeable holes and we will lose some games that will cause this board to got nuts.

If I were to make a guess on end of season outcome, we will be a bubble NIT team at the low end and a bubble NCAA team at the high end.

 

[SFspidur]

Based on this video, my prediction is for poor student support.

 

[spiderstudent17]

I don't think that video is any indication of our support for the games (in that I don't think the support this year will fluctuate more or less relative to previous years). Announcements happen at dhall more than you'd think, and people may not find it socially acceptable to be cheering while in that environment. Not saying student support will be like at Kentucky! But this video should not suggest that it will drop off any lower than how it normally is, which by the way I think it's pretty good given our student body population.

 

[spiderman]

enjoy the game, spiderstudent17. should be a fun team to watch this season.

 

[PASpider]

You must include a loss in one of our first four games. It seems to be a trend that we lose a game early that we should win, and pick up a victory a few games later against a team from a major conference.

I hate it when I'm right.