ADVERTISEMENT

RPI basketball rankings

Looking at live RPI it looks like we need to go 12-6 in conference would put us around 50 RPI going into the A-10 tournament. That's 20–10 on the season. Hoping that would be enough to get us a bye and over the hump with a win or two in the A-10 tourney
 
I think with that and the rest of our profile, we'd need to get that bye (to avoid an RPI drag game against a bottom feeder) and then two wins in the tourney. One win against a a decent (but not great) RPI team wouldn't move up up too much because the loss in the next game would probably knock us back a bit. I ran it with Davidson and Dayton as those two games and we end up right at 45. Lots of variables so that will not be accurate, but mid-forties wont get it done. Two wins (against decent or good RPI teams) probably pushes us not only into Top 40 (still bubble) but would also help our SOS and of course, put those 2 more solid wins on the ledger. That would do it I think. Ran an example where we beat DAvidson and then GW but then lose to Dayton. That got us to RPI of 38 and a solid SOS of 56. That would be good enough I suspect.

Problem is that, barring a significant improvement is a couple of areas, I don't see how we can make it through the rest of the regular season and two wins into the A-10 tourney with only 4 losses. THis team just hasn't shown me that they can play at that high a level for that extended a period. Thats said, this exercise had me looking at the schedule and I think it is fairly favorable. What I see are a lot of tough games, but no absolute losses staring at us. We can afford to lose a few of these, but we are going to have to win a lot more of the games against teams at our level than we lose and that looks tough to me.
 
We can't judge our resume in a vacuum, we will have to compare it to other bubble teams at the end of the season. One thing we have going for us currently is no bad losses and 1 potential top 25 win. Here is our resume so far using projected final RPIs from rpi forecast:

Top 25: 0-1 (Cal could end up here if they finish strong)
Top 50: 1-4 (we have 3 to 5 more games against top 50 teams)
Top 100: 4-6 (I am putting JMU and ODU here since they are borderline, but they could end up outside the top 100)
Bottom 100+: 5-0

Look at UCLA's resume from last year:
Top 25: 1-7
Top 50: 2-8
Top 100: 5-10
Bottom 100+: 15-3

Not too different, proportionally. They were an 11 seed. If Cal ends up top 25 in the RPI we would have a much better resume. We still need to finish strong and get 12+ wins in conference, but our resume is currently on par with teams that have made it in the past, perhaps even better depending on how the chips fall.

Kenpom has us favored in 11 more games (which would make us 12-6 in conference, 20 wins overall, final RPI ~50), Sagarin has us favored in 12 (which would make us 13-5 in conference, 21 wins overall, final RPI ~40.)
 
Last edited:
fan2011 said:
We can't judge our resume in a vacuum, we will have to compare it to other bubble teams at the end of the season. One thing we have going for us currently is no bad losses and 1 potential top 25 win. Here is our resume so far using projected final RPIs from rpi forecast:

Top 25: 0-1 (Cal could end up here if they finish strong)
Top 50: 1-4 (we have 3 to 5 more games against top 50 teams)
Top 100: 4-6 (I am putting JMU and ODU here since they are borderline, but they could end up outside the top 100)
Bottom 100+: 5-0

Look at UCLA's resume from last year:
Top 25: 1-7
Top 50: 2-8
Top 100: 5-10
Bottom 100+: 15-3

Not too different, proportionally. They were an 11 seed. If Cal ends up top 25 in the RPI we would have a much better resume. We still need to finish strong and get 12+ wins in conference, but our resume is currently on par with teams that have made it in the past, perhaps even better depending on how the chips fall.

Kenpom has us favored in 11 more games (which would make us 12-6 in conference, 20 wins overall, final RPI ~50), Sagarin has us favored in 12 (which would make us 13-5 in conference, 21 wins overall, final RPI ~40.)
Click to expand...

Good stuff there.

Re: UCLA - They will always get the benefit of the doubt due to name recognition and their history.

Also I'd have to believe that there's a lot of politics in that back room selection process which would tilt towards teams like UCLA.
 
+1 Fan 2011. A couple of games ago we had posters here (quite a few it seemed) who were counting us totally out of any shot at the Big Dance. We had others who were lamenting the terrible losses to JMU and St. Joes. Those were good teams we lost to, and we were missing that.
We have a gritty bunch of guys, who just do not give up (as seen in our most recent game and in the West Virginia game) who play together, and we simply should not give up on a team like this. Also, the outstanding offensive efficiency is 100% more fun to watch than some of the more defensive-oriented prior teams. Our major obstacles the rest of the way may be injuries (#1) , or just not figuring out things on defense (#2). If we stay healthy, and try out some new "D" wrinkles, or just play SOME effective "help" defense, we could be fine.
 
The offense was really fun to watch yesterday. Problem is if we are going to win 80% of our remaining games, D has to seriously improve. There will b off nights on offense as TT game shows.

I just don't understand a D where our guards get stuck guarding the center on a frequent basis. Constant mismatches and getting burnt off the dribble often are why our D has been bad.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SpiderK
Unfortunately, as good as JMU looked when we played them, they have already lost two games in the CAA, including one to Elon. They still may end up winning the league, but they will be a sub-100 loss for sure.
 
Need to protect the home court number one and steal a few on the road. One thing I will say about Mooney is his teams are usually getting better as the season goes on so hopefully we see a strong push from here on out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: urfan1
Eight Legger said:
Unfortunately, as good as JMU looked when we played them, they have already lost two games in the CAA, including one to Elon. They still may end up winning the league, but they will be a sub-100 loss for sure.
Click to expand...

Even with those losses RPI forecast gives them ~30% chance to have a top 100 RPI.
 
fatherspider said:
The offense was really fun to watch yesterday. Problem is if we are going to win 80% of our remaining games, D has to seriously improve. There will b off nights on offense as TT game shows.

I just don't understand a D where our guards get stuck guarding the center on a frequent basis. Constant mismatches and getting burnt off the dribble often are why our D has been bad.
Click to expand...
I've never liked that scenario as part of the defensive scheme. No way a guard can prevent action under the boards by a big man. Have seen it time & time again through the CM years.
 
not disagreeing there, but it didn't matter if it was a guard or a wing or a big guy on Rhoomes. he was going to score. I can't believe we held him to 10 shots. either our switching did a decent job, or they just got tired of scoring all the time. the guy should have gotten the ball every time down the court.
 
I'd agree, it really isn't meaningful until February, and even then, probably mud to late February.

Nonetheless, it's good filler material between games, particularly if our number is getting smaller.
 
  • Like
Reactions: urfan1 and MolivaManiac
MolivaManiac said:
I feel like this board has a tendency to focus way too much on RPI way too early in the season.
Click to expand...

What do you mean? Are you saying that JMU being RPI 100 +/- 100 right now, isn't meaningful to our chances?
 
Even though some may look at that WVU game as "What could have been if we only had won," I look at it as a great game for building our early-season confidence that we CAN compete with anybody. Hopefully, the guys look at it that way too, as WVU continues to do very well in the national polls, and hangs in there as a top-10 (definitely top-20) team.
 
+1 Ulla on both of the points above.

This team still could have a lot of "life" in it, which all begins with the next game. We win the next two, and things look really different. And, I like this team, so am optimistic that we can do it. We need to believe we can do it first, so I hope the coaches and players are exuding some confidence, leading up to these next few games. Let's do it one game at a time, starting with a "put-down" on Davidson.
 
Two games that should or atleast could have been under belts were St. Joes and VCU at home. Those two are daggers on the home court. Yes we can win but will we? Find out soon enough
 
sdspider said:
Two games that should or atleast could have been under belts were St. Joes and VCU at home. Those two are daggers on the home court. Yes we can win but will we? Find out soon enough
Click to expand...

Very true, if we won those we would be in good shape right now. Since we lost those games the road to an at large will be very difficult. We probably need 13 wins in conference for an at large at this point since our ODU and UNI OOC wins are looking worse and worse. That means winning the rest of our home games, @SLU, @Duq, @GMU as well as 2 of @GW, @SBU, @Dav, and @VCU. It is possible, but extremely unlikely. With our offense we can beat any team in the country, but with our defense we could lose to any team in the country. At this point it is probably more likely that we win the A10 tournament than going 10-2 to end the season (unless our defense miraculously gets better).
 
  • Like
Reactions: mojo-spider, urfan1 and SpiderK
+1. Fan2011 We have dug a nasty hole, and almost have to win the Tourney at this point. 4 game run averaging 90 a game on a neutral court is our best bet now.
 
Yeah, but how often does a team without a bye win the tournament? The goal should be getting a bye
 
AnnapSpider said:
Who are the neighborhood trolls?
Click to expand...
He asked if something had been accomplished. It had been accomplished by another team in town last year.

So he was saying a few of their fans would be happy to stop by and talk about that in detail.
 
Last edited:
urfan1 said:
did either team go only 7 deep?
Click to expand...
Not the A10, but in 2011 UConn only went about 7 deep, got a bad seed in the BE tournament and won 5 straight to get the auto-bid for the NCAAs. They then won 6 more straight and won the national championship.
 
fan2011 said:
Not the A10, but in 2011 UConn only went about 7 deep, got a bad seed in the BE tournament and won 5 straight to get the auto-bid for the NCAAs. They then won 6 more straight and won the national championship.
Click to expand...

Hope springs eternal
 
Ulla, I have noticed that many of your posts regarding the A-10 are very negative. They make me want to smoke or drink something. Stop being so pessimistic.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

SFspidur

2025 NIT changes

Replies
1
Views
375
UR Basketball Board
GKiller
GKiller
urmite

While waiting for the NET

Replies
0
Views
189
UR Basketball Board
urmite
urmite
Gallipoli

Dartmouth Basketball votes to join union.

Replies
6
Views
470
UR Basketball Board
spiderman
spiderman
Gallipoli

Basketball Salaries in Virginia

Replies
20
Views
2K
UR Basketball Board
Anachnid
Anachnid
UR80sfan

Richmond Computer rankings

Replies
8
Views
416
UR Basketball Board
Eight Legger
Eight Legger
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back