Remaining relevant CAA Games for UR
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Delaware, welcome back to the CAA. It's too soon for you to think you can jump to the FBS. You thought you could just waltz right through to the playoffs. Then you lost to Elon and you may just lose to Villanova. That places you on the outside looking in, at 4th place in the league.
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This is from last year, but presumably the same this year. Once you get past head-to-head and common opponents, which wouldn't appear to break a three-way tie involving us, it goes to point differential in conference games (max 21 per game).
If I did the math right, here's where that stands at the moment:
Albany: +76
Delaware: +76
Villanova: +75
UR: +44
So yeah, not good for us.
If I did the math right, here's where that stands at the moment:
Albany: +76
Delaware: +76
Villanova: +75
UR: +44
So yeah, not good for us.
Except Delaware and Villanova play each other in the last game of the season. If we win out, the Spiders are top 3.
Yes, I was following on from previous discussions where that was outlined. A three-way tie for us would be with Albany and either Delaware or Villanova, so the stats on all four programs are relevant.
Top 25 losses 11/4/23:
Elon 33
No. 5 Delaware 27
Colgate 37
No. 20 Lafayette 34
No. 23 UAlbany 24
No. 24 William & Mary 8
Elon 33
No. 5 Delaware 27
Colgate 37
No. 20 Lafayette 34
No. 23 UAlbany 24
No. 24 William & Mary 8
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I agree, all we have to do is win out and let the chips fall where they may. We upset Elon if they are ranked, then beat W & M we are in period.
We need to be Army fans this weekend when they play Holy Cross. Holy Cross and Lafayette have one lose each in conference. Lafayette beat Holy Cross. They both win out and Lafayette gets the auto bid due to the head-to-head. Two of the Holy Cross loses (if they lose to Army will be FBS) and they can end up 7-4. They also lost to Harvard who is ranked, so they have no bad losses. Lafayette plays Fordham (who is pretty good) this weekend. A loss by Lafayette only gives them 3 total and they could still end up 8-3 and slip into an at large. Holy Cross might as well slip in at 7-4, but I would think with several Missouri Valley and BIg Sky teams that will end up 7-4 Holy Cross would be more likely to be left out.
Just Guessing on my part.
Teams Behind No. 1 SDSU in FCS Top 25 Poll Have Their Eyes on the (Playoff) Prize
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Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll | Opta Analyst
South Dakota State is a unanimous No. 1 in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll, but No. 2 has competition between Furman, Montana and Idaho.
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Elon moved to #25 in the Any Given Saturday poll. Have no way of knowing if the committee pays attention to that poll, but the field most times gets filled pretty close to that groups rankings of the teams left after the automatic qualifiers have been filled in. Not always, but pretty close.
Spiders moved down to #30 in that poll but did get more votes this week.
Also, in the polls remember to leave out Harvard, Ivy schools do not participate in playoffs and N C Central (Spider need them to win out) as the MEAC champion goes to the Celebration Bowl versus the SWAC champion. At present Floriday A&M is leading SWAC at 7-0 in conference and 8-1 and ranked T-13 in STATS poll. That gives us three to pull for in their remaining games as they will not be participating if ranked above Spiders, if I remember correctly how the Celebration Bowl teams are filled. Incarnate Word lost to Nichols (5-4 overall, 5-0 in conference) last week and is one game back in Southland Conference standings at 7-2 overall, 4-1 in conference, they will likely win their last game and are ranked, I would not even guess if the committee would give the Southland an at large bid. Problem is they went deep in playoffs last year and have a name.
Maybe the committee will notice that Hampton just won their 5th game of the year, but do not know if they will win anymore. Morgan State has a good chance to end up 5-5, their game vs Stony Brook got cancelled so only 10 total. They may well have ended up 2-2 vs CAA had that game been played.
Those two losses could look not quite as bad. As a side bar, Morgan State lost 16-10 to N C Central, who is now about #11 or so on average in the polls. Morgan State defense is better than they get credit for, they took Albany to two overtimes before losing. I hope the committee notice such things.
Long post about things that will not matter if Spiders stump their toes.
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With two weeks remaining in the season, the FCS Playoffs has its first automatic bid and a whole lot of chaos elsewhere — especially the CAA.
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Based on this, taking down Elon with a follow up victory over the Tribe would likely put us in.
Git er done!
Git er done!
Agree a win over Elon helps, but W&M has fallen from grace. Had they been ranked would be a done deal. I believe we still need help. Albany needs a loss at Monmouth next week, and Nova needs another loss. UD is in, after being highly ranked all year. We never had a chance of a ranking after morgan and hampton, so now we are out there on a hope and a prayer.
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This is big-really big plus he gets to take a redshirt year.
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No doubt help will be appreciated from any of the opponents, especially Monmouth and Delaware...and we need to make sure we take care of business against the Fighting Christians and Indians which won't be easy...
Many observers believe the best the CAA can do for the FCS Playoffs is three teams...the auto-bid which doesn't look like it could go the Spiders way unless we win the Championship outright which seems nearly impossible and two At-Large bids...
the way the standings and schedule play out it looks like the most likely scenario is a three way tie for the CAA Championship...three teams at 7-1...
let's say the Spiders win out to finish 7-1 in the CAA...that gets us at least a piece of the CAA Championship and would leave two At-Large teams from the CAA unless the conference gets more than three...
I'd hate to think that the NCAA/CAA would overlook and leave at home a CAA Champion for a two loss squad...I believe this type of thing may have happened in 2012 when we got screwed, but there was only a 16 team Playoff at that time?
if we win out and get a piece of the CAA Championship...Hardt, Hallock and anyone else at UR with leverage and credibility better be working the phones and their contacts/connections to make sure that a Co-CAA Champion isn't left out for a 2nd place finisher!
Go Spiders!
Going undefeated in Oct and Nov should count for something!!!!
...Hampton was in the red zone looking to go ahead, but threw an INT.First play, Tribe gets a wide open 76 yd TD.
First play of the ensuing Hampton drive, the ball bounces off a falling receiver and the Tribe gets a pick-6.
14 points in 10 seconds, and it's 24–10 Tribe.
Bring on the Tribe. It's time to end a good season with a great win. Let’s destroy Wilma and Mary.
While I am glad our guys didn't give up on the season, I would hardly qualify this as a good or successful season yet. We lost a pay game and another home game to a bad team, something our better teams would not of done. Our best wins are Elon/URI which don't hold up to other bubble teams who have ranked wins.
We have been a strong enough program historically where we should be disappointed missing the playoffs any season. A loss to WM would certainly ice ANY chance we have of making the playoffs. Most posters agreed this cupcake schedule should of at least yielded an 8-3 record and those losses were not coming from Morgan St or Hampton. This game should of been for playoff seeding not a final push to make it, period.
I am probably in the minority here, but I am disgusted that we wasted easy opportunities earlier this season against inferior opponents that could render our late season push nothing more than playing for respect.
With the exception of last season, RH has not elevated the program and in fact has lowered its prestige since he took the reigns. I love how he has us playing now, hopefully he can parlay it into a playoff berth. He owes us a deep playoff run at some point.
We need to beat W&M 60-0 next week to win the point differential and get a bid. Now go do it!
Nov 11 Top 25 Final Scores:
FCS Scoreboard
No. 1 South Dakota State 34
No. 22 Youngstown State 0
No. 2 Furman 37
VMI 3
Weber State 31
No. 4 Idaho 29
No. 5 Montana State 57
Eastern Washington 14
No. 6 South Dakota 14
No. 10 North Dakota 10
Howard 50
No. 7 NC Central 20
No. 8 Delaware 45
Campbell 7
No. 12 North Dakota State 34
No. 11 Southern Illinois 10
No. 13 Villanova 33
Towson 10
Missouri State 35
No. 15 Northern Iowa 16
No. 17 Western Carolina 58
ETSU 7
No. 18 UAlbany 38
Stony Brook 20
No. 20 Austin Peay 30
Utah Tech 17
No. 21 UT Martin 41
SEMO 14
No. 23 Mercer 28
Samford 21
No. 24 Harvard 25
Penn 23 (3OT)
No. 25 Lafayette 24
Fordham 16
Others Receiving Votes (schools listed on two or more ballots): Central Arkansas (6-3, 3-1 UAC) 75; Tarleton (7-3, 3-2 UAC) 47; Holy Cross (6-3, 4-1 Patriot) 43; Elon (5-4, 5-1 CAA) 41; Richmond (6-3, 5-1 CAA) 23
FCS Scoreboard
No. 1 South Dakota State 34
No. 22 Youngstown State 0
No. 2 Furman 37
VMI 3
Weber State 31
No. 4 Idaho 29
No. 5 Montana State 57
Eastern Washington 14
No. 6 South Dakota 14
No. 10 North Dakota 10
Howard 50
No. 7 NC Central 20
No. 8 Delaware 45
Campbell 7
No. 12 North Dakota State 34
No. 11 Southern Illinois 10
No. 13 Villanova 33
Towson 10
Missouri State 35
No. 15 Northern Iowa 16
No. 17 Western Carolina 58
ETSU 7
No. 18 UAlbany 38
Stony Brook 20
No. 20 Austin Peay 30
Utah Tech 17
No. 21 UT Martin 41
SEMO 14
No. 23 Mercer 28
Samford 21
No. 24 Harvard 25
Penn 23 (3OT)
No. 25 Lafayette 24
Fordham 16
Others Receiving Votes (schools listed on two or more ballots): Central Arkansas (6-3, 3-1 UAC) 75; Tarleton (7-3, 3-2 UAC) 47; Holy Cross (6-3, 4-1 Patriot) 43; Elon (5-4, 5-1 CAA) 41; Richmond (6-3, 5-1 CAA) 23
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Losers 11/11
No 7 NC Central (8-2)
No 10 N Dakota (6-4)
No 11 SIU (6-4)
No 15 UNI (6-4)
No 22 Youngstown St (6-4)
RV:
EKU 24 v C Ark 27
(4-6,3-2). (7-3,4-1)
Hail Mary for the win! Central Arkansas stuns EKU with last-second TD
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Tarleton St 31 Abeline Christn 30
(8-3,4-2). (5-5,3-3)
Holy Cross(6-4) 14. Army(4-6) 17
No 7 NC Central (8-2)
No 10 N Dakota (6-4)
No 11 SIU (6-4)
No 15 UNI (6-4)
No 22 Youngstown St (6-4)
RV:
EKU 24 v C Ark 27
(4-6,3-2). (7-3,4-1)
Hail Mary for the win! Central Arkansas stuns EKU with last-second TD
View Now
Tarleton St 31 Abeline Christn 30
(8-3,4-2). (5-5,3-3)
Holy Cross(6-4) 14. Army(4-6) 17
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No 7 NC Central will likely get an at-large bid if it wins next week, and then Howard beats Morgan State to secure the MEAC berth to the Celebration Bowl.Root for a Morgan State win next week for this NOT to happen.
Otherwise this will take away a 6th bid from the MVFC, or a 4th from the CAA or SoCon, or a 2nd from the Southland,
Otherwise this will take away a 6th bid from the MVFC, or a 4th from the CAA or SoCon, or a 2nd from the Southland,
If I am reading correctly, Spiders can lock up the auto bid with a win, Nova and Albany losses.
Auto Bid Scenarios
Yes, we'd win a head-to-head over Delaware because it's broken by descending common opponents. Elon would break that tie since we beat the Phoenix and UD lost to them.
Our only other common opponents with UD are Hampton, Campbell, and NC A&T, and none of them (most importantly Hampton) can catch Elon even with Hampton and Elon playing each other next Saturday.
A head-to-head with Villanova can't be broken that way since we didn't play their loss (Albany) and they didn't play ours, so it goes to point differential.
First let's beat the Tribe.
Our only other common opponents with UD are Hampton, Campbell, and NC A&T, and none of them (most importantly Hampton) can catch Elon even with Hampton and Elon playing each other next Saturday.
A head-to-head with Villanova can't be broken that way since we didn't play their loss (Albany) and they didn't play ours, so it goes to point differential.
First let's beat the Tribe.
Assuming I've understood correctly, here's what I've got for point differential among the contenders right now:
UD: +97
Villanova: +96
Albany: +92
UR: +58
Given the max differential in a game is 21, it's not possible for us to catch any of them in that metric.
UD: +97
Villanova: +96
Albany: +92
UR: +58
Given the max differential in a game is 21, it's not possible for us to catch any of them in that metric.
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