Quality of a win

[UR80sfan]

There are a lot of subjective comments on what is the definition of a quality win. Probably the best way to define it is using the NCAA NET or for now Kenpom Tiers with Tier 1 = great win, Tier 2 good win, Tier 3 OK win, Tier 4 mediocre win and VCU great win. Our last game was a road win against #123 wofford (good win) and today road game is against #122 Northern Iowa, which would be a good win if we come out on top.

Home	Neutral	Road
	vs. RPI	vs. RPI	vs. RPI
Tier 1	1-30	1-50	1-75
Tier 2	31-75	51-100	76-135
Tier 3	76-160	101-200	136-240
Tier 4	161+	201+	241+

 

[Long Island Spiders]

Thank you. What matters more: (i) the ranking at time of the game being played, or (ii) the ranking at the end of the season.

 

[Eight Legger]

The latter.

 

[Long Island Spiders]

That’s what I thought. Thanks for confirming.

 

[Gospiders06]

If you think of March madness it's how you finish that matters.

 

[urmite]

I agree that too many here ignore location. And go more by Name of the University than analytical rank.

And ranks this season by various services are all over the place. For instance, Torvik without preseason has Wofford 162, UNI 171.

And in my option, the Selection Committee looks for:
a Mininum number of combined Tier 1&2 games, Winning percentage against Each of Tier 1&2, and counts Tier 3&4 losses against you, while ignoring Tier 3&4 wins except as part of your overall record.

 

[fan2011]

RPI doesn't matter at all...

 

[urmite]

RPI doesn't matter at all...

I assume he meant NET but for now KenPom?

 

[kneepadmckinney]

I agree that too many here ignore location. And go more by Name of the University than analytical rank.

And ranks this season by various services are all over the place. For instance, Torvik without preseason has Wofford 162, UNI 171.

And in my option, the Selection Committee looks for:
a Mininum number of combined Tier 1&2 games, Winning percentage against Each of Tier 1&2, and counts Tier 3&4 losses against you, while ignoring Tier 3&4 wins except as part of your overall record.

This seems dead on to me. Cheers, mite.

 

[PhillySpider]

There are a lot of subjective comments on what is the definition of a quality win. Probably the best way to define it is using the NCAA Kenpom Tiers with Tier 1 = great win, Tier 2 good win, Tier 3 OK win, Tier 4 mediocre win and VCU great win. Our last game was a road win against #123 wofford (good win) and today road game is against #122 Northern Iowa, which would be a good win if we come out on top.

Home	Neutral	Road
	vs. RPI	vs. RPI	vs. RPI
Tier 1	1-30	1-50	1-75
Tier 2	31-75	51-100	76-135
Tier 3	76-160	101-200	136-240
Tier 4	161+	201+	241+

I can agree on the tiers, but not so much the names (great, good etc) you associated with each tier. So I'll just call the last two Tier 2 wins!

 

[PhillySpider]

I agree that too many here ignore location. And go more by Name of the University than analytical rank.

And ranks this season by various services are all over the place. For instance, Torvik without preseason has Wofford 162, UNI 171.

And in my option, the Selection Committee looks for:
a Mininum number of combined Tier 1&2 games, Winning percentage against Each of Tier 1&2, and counts Tier 3&4 losses against you, while ignoring Tier 3&4 wins except as part of your overall record.

I believe these things to be among the things the Committee looks for. I further believe these are looked at in the big scheme of things that gets teams on the table for discussion etc. On the more micro level, like when deciding the last 2-3 teams in and 2-3 teams out, they aren't looking at Net tiers etc., they are looking at each resume specifically and a road win against a #123 ranked wofford or UNI won't count for nearly as much as a road win at a #124 ranked Big 10, ACC or SEC program. Despite the similar net rankings and both on the road, a win at wofford will get a big shoulder shrug while an SEC road win will "count" as a much better win. Don't agree with it, but thats certainly my belief!!

 

[urfan1]

i agree with Philly, and I don't like the classification of wins 80s put out there. I appreciate his intent, but prefer to look at them as the committee might, they will pay more attention to the Tier and location. Shame is the way the deck is stacked it's easy for P5s to get a number of Tier 1 & 2 wins if they are mid conference or higher.

 

[RichmondNative]

The fact is you never know what will become a “signature win” and the tournament games this year were definitely not of the same ilk as previous years. I actually think the losses to the other Mid-majors are the real problem with the at-large possibility because in most years the mid-level P5s are going to get nod over the Mid-majors. They have more chances to get their own signature win and of course the Tiers are in their favor too. A Mid-major at large has to be the best Mid-Major that did not win its league championship.

 

[97spiderfan]

Wins at Wofford and Northern Iowa is not going to be move our resume needle one bit. However, losses would certainly move the needle in the opposite direction.

Better get NC State in a few weeks because we need something signature on our OOC slate and we don't have it yet.

 

[spiderman]

sometimes you just need wnis. look at the Bonnies' schedule. eye test ... it isn't very impressive. yet they've been top 25 based on preseason hype and not losing.

a tougher schedule is fun but dangerous. it certainly didn't help us this year.

 

[SFspidur]

NC State has an uphill climb given they're starting out with a NET of 136 and would be a Q3 game for us. They need some good wins like, oh, maybe Purdue?

Last year they started out at #38 in the first NET rankings, were a middle-of-the-pack (pun intended) team in ACC play, and ended up #73 on Selection Sunday.

Obviously there will be a ton of movement still, but it's not great that they're in a hole to start.

 

[VT4700]

sometimes you just need wnis. look at the Bonnies' schedule. eye test ... it isn't very impressive. yet they've been top 25 based on preseason hype and not losing.

a tougher schedule is fun but dangerous. it certainly didn't help us this year.

St Bona schedule seems pretty good. They already have 4 top 100 wins, and still play likely Q1 games against VT and UCONN.

 

[Spider B]

Bonnie just doesn't play the games either. They win them!

 

[spider23]

Bonnie just doesn't play the games either. They win them!

I think they just compete.

 

[spiderman]

Bonnies struggled against awful Coppin St and Canisius teams, they barely beat Buffalo at home and lost to UNI at home. I'm sure their fans aren't feeling great about how they've played.

they did beat a good Marquette team. that's better than any of our wins.
I don't think Clemson or Boise State are anything special.

 

[GKiller]

sometimes you just need wnis. look at the Bonnies' schedule. eye test ... it isn't very impressive. yet they've been top 25 based on preseason hype and not losing.

a tougher schedule is fun but dangerous. it certainly didn't help us this year.

what's so tough about our schedule. Look at the SOS. We had extremely winnable games.

 

[urmite]

There are a lot of subjective comments on what is the definition of a quality win. Probably the best way to define it is using the NCAA NET or for now Kenpom Tiers with Tier 1 = great win, Tier 2 good win, Tier 3 OK win, Tier 4 mediocre win and VCU great win. Our last game was a road win against #123 wofford (good win) and today road game is against #122 Northern Iowa, which would be a good win if we come out on top.

Home	Neutral	Road
	vs. RPI	vs. RPI	vs. RPI
Tier 1	1-30	1-50	1-75
Tier 2	31-75	51-100	76-135
Tier 3	76-160	101-200	136-240
Tier 4	161+	201+	241+

Would you say that NET looks different than Kenpom as to what Tier teams are in?

Richmond Spiders NET Team Sheet at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

A lot can change, and Net was a bit different than I expected but...ugh!

 

[spiderman]

what's so tough about our schedule. Look at the SOS. We had extremely winnable games.

it's a little early for SOS but yes, it doesn't look as strong as we expected.
but when you play good teams on the road, you risk losing some. we lost most.

I don't know the best way to schedule. we talked about needing great road games to build a resume. that doesn't work if you lose them. P5's load up on home games and build up wins OOC.

 

[97spiderfan]

Bonnies struggled against awful Coppin St and Canisius teams, they barely beat Buffalo at home and lost to UNI at home. I'm sure their fans aren't feeling great about how they've played.

they did beat a good Marquette team. that's better than any of our wins.
I don't think Clemson or Boise State are anything special.

Lofton was out with an injury against Buffalo, so I think that is a nice win for them considering their best player didn't play. The loss to Northern Iowa stings for them, but sitting at 7-1 with two pretty nice BCS scalps, I think St. Bonnie is feeling pretty good right now.

I am surprised at how low their NET is given their record and who they've beat thus far. They may be right next to us in the NET but their resume is far better than ours thus far.

 

[urmite]

Lofton was out with an injury against Buffalo, so I think that is a nice win for them considering their best player didn't play. The loss to Northern Iowa stings for them, but sitting at 7-1 with two pretty nice BCS scalps, I think St. Bonnie is feeling pretty good right now.

I am surprised at how low their NET is given their record and who they've beat thus far. They may be right next to us in the NET but their resume is far better than ours thus far.

If you only look at number & location and not at Name, their resume looks less impressive.
I think NET does that. (The committee may not...) NET also doesn't consider the odds of your opponent's resume improving.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies NET Team Sheet at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

If I told you they beat #78, #97, & #110 at neutral sites, would it seem less impressive than Marquette, Clemson, & Boise ST?

 

[SFspidur]

The best way to schedule is to load up on games against decent opponents but which you should still win, then add in a couple of chances for marquee wins. Avoid the bottom feeders.

We tried to do that, but at least as of right now, we're missing a few ingredients. We needed to split with Utah State and Drake. Maryland needed to be one of those shots at a marquee win, not a Q3 loss (I know this is likely to change just due to B10 schedule strength). UNI needs to get their act together and rise 100 spots.

 

[urmite]

I thought GA St was a little higher, then I saw the loss to Mercer...

 

[fan2011]

Lofton was out with an injury against Buffalo, so I think that is a nice win for them considering their best player didn't play. The loss to Northern Iowa stings for them, but sitting at 7-1 with two pretty nice BCS scalps, I think St. Bonnie is feeling pretty good right now.

I am surprised at how low their NET is given their record and who they've beat thus far. They may be right next to us in the NET but their resume is far better than ours thus far.

Bona's margin of victory against really bad teams is too low. That is what is bringing them down In the NET, they are playing bad teams closely.

 

[Section9.RowD]

sometimes you just need wnis. look at the Bonnies' schedule. eye test ... it isn't very impressive. yet they've been top 25 based on preseason hype and not losing.

a tougher schedule is fun but dangerous. it certainly didn't help us this ye

Bona's margin of victory against really bad teams is too low. That is what is bringing them down In the NET, they are playing bad teams closely.

Their Q4 losss against UNI is I suspect the main factor. I thought I read NET doesn't use margin of victory this year but may be wrong.

 

[fan2011]

Their Q4 losss against UNI is I suspect the main factor. I thought I read NET doesn't use margin of victory this year but may be wrong.

Margin of victory and efficiency margin are essentially redundant measures. They may have removed MOV this year due to this, but the effect is still the same with efficiency margin. Bona has not beaten the "bad teams" by enough.

 

[kneepadmckinney]

I thought GA St was a little higher, then I saw the loss to Mercer...

They had major COVID issues that is hurting their performance right now.

 

[urmite]

They had major COVID issues that is hurting their performance right now.

4 of 5 players were back for Mercer. But the PG only played 8 minutes, and none seemed ready to be back where they were.