Next year team will be better than expected by this board

[SpiderK]

I think that we are putting way too much on
Matt Grace’s plate if he returns. He has had about 5 good games (moments) in his career. He may be ready to break out, but if that’s what we are counting on for next season, wow.

 

[97spiderfan]

I think that we are putting way too much on
Matt Grace’s plate if he returns. He has had about 5 good games (moments) in his career. He may be ready to break out, but if that’s what we are counting on for next season, wow.

Agree. Grace was fantastic in his role last year. And certainly, he has earned the starters nod. However, I think we also have to recognize that Grace has limitations. He is not the strongest guy for a center, he can and does get pushed around a lot on defense. He will have to work on that. While Grace may get overpowered at times, he doesn't just let his man blow past him like Grant did at times when he gets beat.

 

[spider23]

I banged on Grace's defense a bit over the years. I do think he can be a good defender. Ideally, we bring in two bigs, and have a three man rotation in there (or 4 if you slide Burton or Noyes over to 4 sometimes). By having 3 competent 4/5's we can say you need to play strong D, not give up uncontested layup/postups - and our interior D looks much better. Too many times the last several years - with Cline and Golden - we had no interior depth, and my perception was they were instructed to - or made the choice on their own, to make sure they did not foul. If you have depth, you can avoid this .

 

[fan2011]

Honestly, as it turned out, our OOC schedule was not that great. We could schedule those same level of teams next year and it wouldn't be that hard of a schedule. We simply underachieved against it this year.

According to kenpom, we only had one 300+ ranked team and only one team in the 200-300 range. While we didn't have a lot of very good teams on in the OOC, we didn't have a lot of cupcakes either. The schedule was actually not that easy, ranked 94th toughest OOC by kenpom. I would suspect to see a lot more 200+ teams next year.

 

[Eight Legger]

Right, "not a lot of good teams " is the key there. To have a great OOC schedule, you need to have a decent number of good teams on it. One NCAA team out of 13 is a pretty poor hit rate if the goal is to prepare for an at-large birth, which it was.

Had we played a "great" schedule and gone 9-4 with losses to Creighton, Alabama, Xavier and Utah State, for example, ok. We probably don't get dinged for that too much, assuming we also beat a few similar teams.

 

[GKiller]

According to kenpom, we only had one 300+ ranked team and only one team in the 200-300 range. While we didn't have a lot of very good teams on in the OOC, we didn't have a lot of cupcakes either. The schedule was actually not that easy, ranked 94th toughest OOC by kenpom. I would suspect to see a lot more 200+ teams next year.

but why use kenpom? Don’t get me wrong I look at & respect sites like kenpom & Torvik. But ncaa’s own metric had sos at 146 ooc. A 50+ significant difference. I don’t think there’s any dispute ncaa is going to evaluate on their own calculations first & foremost.

 

[Long Island Spiders]

I think you guys tend to overthink these statistics. It’s crazy how much the initial NET rankings probably influence all of this — like if you put most of big10 teams in the top 50 then they have very little downside during the conference play. The problem is the NCAA has no reason to fix this as they are financially incentivized to put teams in the rankings/tournaments that get TV views and sell tickets.

Our rankings and strength of schedule get us into the committee conversation and then I think it goes something like this when deciding an at At Large bid.

“Strong A10 record and performance in the tournament. Good OOC schedule with a 3-2 record against the P5, including a strong win against Wisconsin and played tough against Auburn.”

Ultimately, I think the committee has real discretion on how they pick teams and seed them. Unfortunately, I agree with another poster from another thread that the entire committee should be banned after allowing nine big10 teams to dance.

 

[fan2011]

but why use kenpom? Don’t get me wrong I look at & respect sites like kenpom & Torvik. But ncaa’s own metric had sos at 146 ooc. A 50+ significant difference. I don’t think there’s any dispute ncaa is going to evaluate on their own calculations first & foremost.

I don’t think we are going for an at-large quality OOC next year. I think kenpom does a better job at measuring the actually difficulty of the games, so even though it isn’t used as heavily by the selection committee, it is more relevant when discussing how DIFFICULT a schedule is than the NET. If we want to discuss at-large quality of a schedule, then NET should be used.

 

[spiderman]

Hit the transfer portal hard and get 3 difference makers here that can mix with what we have coming back to put us in position for a bid.

is Downingtown PA in Mooney's wheelhouse?
4 star John Camden ranked 125 in his class got no time at Memphis as a freshman and is transferring. had major offers and he'll get major phone calls, but after a year of sitting he might be looking for more of a sure chance at playing time at a good program.
6'8" shooter. unusually wide base on his jumper.

 

[97spiderfan]

According to kenpom, we only had one 300+ ranked team and only one team in the 200-300 range. While we didn't have a lot of very good teams on in the OOC, we didn't have a lot of cupcakes either. The schedule was actually not that easy, ranked 94th toughest OOC by kenpom. I would suspect to see a lot more 200+ teams next year.

At the end of the day, it was easy. We played a bunch of teams that were supposed to be good but ended up not being very good at all. Some of those teams played in highly rated conferences (SEC, ACC, Big 10, MWC) so their metrics didn't look that bad at the end of the day, but their actual records, where they finished in those conferences was really bad.

I remember when we beat NC State and we felt like man, that is a win that is really going to look good on our resume. They were 7-3 but had just taken #1 Purdue to overtime. They then proceeded to go 4-17 the rest of the way. They weren't a cupcake at the time and not sure you would ever consider an ACC team a cupcake, but they were a really bad team.

 

[SpiderDad75]

Next year's record will depend on 3 things.

1) Returning players - right now, no news is good news - but we need the core of Burton, Grace, and Goose. I am not saying this is a superstar trio, just saying we need their experience and skills to compete next season. Losing just one of them hurt us (some more than others of course).
2) Schedule - I don't think last year was a "gauntlet" but if it was, then expect a much lighter slate this season as noted by JOC. The goal will likely be get to 8 wins or more in OOC.
3) Transfers - we need to score an impact transfer. And by impact, I mean someone who can come in, probably start and give us 25 solid minutes or more a night.

I didn't mention young guys like Nelson, Dread, Bailey, Randolph, etc because given the history of Mooney and players who are predominantly on the bench one season and then we have a big exodus the next, they don't usually produce much in my mind. Not saying these kids can't be good for us in the future - but we are probably looking at them having their ups and downs next season and playing more like frosh. Best case scenario with the young guys returning - they get minutes in OOC, and maybe by mid A10 season - they are starting to play better with less mistakes and more consistency.

But I think if we take care of top 3 on this list - no reason we can't get to 16-18 wins overall, and a 6--8 seed in A10.

So you think guys like Dji, Nelson, Marcus and Crab sit and transfers take the mins? 😬 idk know about that. Dji has certainly been here before…a lot on here forget or choose not to remember he was a signed ACC guard and had other HM offers for guard. Had he been healthy he would have made us better down the stretch for sure. 8 min a game was solid with all the supper Srs. Personally don’t think he will be sitting if healthy good Lord willing.

 

[spiderman]

hopefully Dji can give us all the defense Goose does but with more offense, even if not a big 3 point shooter.

I'm interested to give Randolph a deeper look too.

 

[SpiderDad75]

hopefully Dji can give us all the defense Goose does but with more offense, even if not a big 3 point shooter.

I'm interested to give Randolph a deeper look too.

My faith in his defense is unshaken 🔒down on any guard. He is the ultimate playmaker and I don’t think anytime on the court this season did good things not happen. Get that jumper going and we are in business. I’m with you on Marcus..love the energy and confidence.

 

[Long Island Spiders]

My faith in his defense is unshaken 🔒down on any guard. He is the ultimate playmaker and I don’t think anytime on the court this season did good things not happen. Get that jumper going and we are in business. I’m with you on Marcus..love the energy and confidence.

I bought into this potential a long time ago!

 

[SpiderDad75]

I bought into this potential a long time ago!

🙏🏼✊🏼 No more magic…just has to go out and perform now.

 

[Eight Legger]

Agree with the sentiment that a top-4 finish in the league should always be the goal. Especially now. If ever we were position to plug in a few high-level transfers to supplement what Burton gives us, it is now. We have great arguments to make to these kids. Make the arguments and sign a few. This is how we become a program and not just a team that wins once a decade.

 

[spiderman]

Agree with the sentiment that a top-4 finish in the league should always be the goal. Especially now. If ever we were position to plug in a few high-level transfers to supplement what Burton gives us, it is now. We have great arguments to make to these kids. Make the arguments and sign a few. This is how we become a program and not just a team that wins once a decade.

agreed, and there are a ton of options available out there that can help.

 

[97spiderfan]

So you think guys like Dji, Nelson, Marcus and Crab sit and transfers take the mins? 😬 idk know about that. Dji has certainly been here before…a lot on here forget or choose not to remember he was a signed ACC guard and had other HM offers for guard. Had he been healthy he would have made us better down the stretch for sure. 8 min a game was solid with all the supper Srs. Personally don’t think he will be sitting if healthy good Lord willing.

You know I love me some Dji. Hope he stays healthy and shows us what he can do. But also Mooney is in the business of winning basketball games (unless he wants to get the natives restless again), so he has to go out and shop the transfer market and see how he can improve the team. Plus the competition makes everyone better.

At the end of the day, best players win the minutes.

 

[Section9.RowD]

So you think guys like Dji, Nelson, Marcus and Crab sit and transfers take the mins? 😬 idk know about that. Dji has certainly been here before…a lot on here forget or choose not to remember he was a signed ACC guard and had other HM offers for guard. Had he been healthy he would have made us better down the stretch for sure. 8 min a game was solid with all the supper Srs. Personally don’t think he will be sitting if healthy good Lord willing.

Absolutely .. expecting Dji to start - would rather have to your point an ACC signed big guard who has been in our system two years than a lower league kid trying to upgrade ..realizing I hope/expect we have good transfers coming in but still believe we need big bulky ones that more than guards.

 

[SpiderDad75]

You know I love me some Dji. Hope he stays healthy and shows us what he can do. But also Mooney is in the business of winning basketball games (unless he wants to get the natives restless again), so he has to go out and shop the transfer market and see how he can improve the team. Plus the competition makes everyone better.

At the end of the day, best players win the minutes.

No question he has to hit the portal…I just don’t agree with the guys on the bench don’t get much run or only play OOC…not buying that at least not all of the guys. Some think Jason starts from day 1 then some think it’s guys they bring in from the portal. Some of those same posters talk about coach being loyal and so it can’t be both. There have been some contradictions on the board but totally agree with you about the portal. We have to get at least 2 pref a big and possibly shooter whether that’s a wing or guard.

 

[spiderman]

we haven't been mentioned with a true PG in the portal yet despite losing Isaiah, so maybe Mooney sees PG between Jason and Dji.

 

[SpiderDad75]

we haven't been mentioned with a true PG in the portal yet despite losing Isaiah, so maybe Mooney sees PG between Jason and Dji.

I honestly think we are good in that dept.

 

[GKiller]

I don’t think we are going for an at-large quality OOC next year. I think kenpom does a better job at measuring the actually difficulty of the games, so even though it isn’t used as heavily by the selection committee, it is more relevant when discussing how DIFFICULT a schedule is than the NET. If we want to discuss at-large quality of a schedule, then NET should be used.

But we were talking about this past season schedule not next season.

Also how do u know kenpom does a better job if u don't know the data behind the NCAA Net sos? Kenpom might but I believe the NCAA formula is private.

Yes if we're not attempting to be a ncaa team sos is less relevant. It's important when u expect to be a good team. If we r a bad team next year I don't think we'll be discussing sos much.

 

[fan2011]

You don’t

But we were talking about this past season schedule not next season.

Also how do u know kenpom does a better job if u don't know the data behind the NCAA Net sos? Kenpom might but I believe the NCAA formula is private.

Yes if we're not attempting to be a ncaa team sos is less relevant. It's important when u expect to be a good team. If we r a bad team next year I don't think we'll be discussing sos much.

You don’t need to know the formula to test the quality of the formula. Just see which system predicts more games correctly, that is the system that is batter at measuring the true difficulty of games/teams.

 

[GKiller]

You don’t

You don’t need to know the formula to test the quality of the formula. Just see which system predicts more games correctly, that is the system that is batter at measuring the true difficulty of games/teams.

Ok, do u have that comparison?

the net sos is what I care about & what I think we should all care about bc that has greater factor in ncaa qualification which is what it’s all about. NIT to extent too. But I’m curious bc if kenpom is so much better then there should be some push to have ncaa revise their formula & adopt more of pomeroy’s.

 

[RichmondNative]

So you think guys like Dji, Nelson, Marcus and Crab sit and transfers take the mins? 😬 idk know about that. Dji has certainly been here before…a lot on here forget or choose not to remember he was a signed ACC guard and had other HM offers for guard. Had he been healthy he would have made us better down the stretch for sure. 8 min a game was solid with all the supper Srs. Personally don’t think he will be sitting if healthy good Lord willing.

I posted Kevin Willard’s thoughts on this in Transfer Portal thread, which I agree with. Have to factor in player loyalty and I think Mooney has shown he has an abundance of that. So I don’t think transfers come in and take time from the guys that have been here unless there is a major difference on both ends of the floor.

What the Spiders need from the portal is 2 bigs as others have stated in this thread. That is the huge gap in recruiting, so we will see if the staff can do anything with the portal. Might be able to get by with just one post player, but I would be more upbeat if the staff landed two.

 

[Eight Legger]

All due respect to everyone in the program, but I hope Mooney is not going to just defer to the older guys who have been in the program longer. His job is to field the very best team he can, every year. If that means starting three transfers next year, so be it. If not, that's fine too. Best players play.

 

[RichmondNative]

All due respect to everyone in the program, but I hope Mooney is not going to just defer to the older guys who have been in the program longer. His job is to field the very best team he can, every year. If that means starting three transfers next year, so be it. If not, that's fine too. Best players play.

If we freeze the team as is (rest of returning players plus 3 open spots), there is no way in my opinion that the 3 open spots turn into 3 starting transfers. There is no history of Mooney bringing in 3 quality transfers at once nor has there ever been a situation I can remember in the last 8 years where a younger guy supplanted an older one. Granted there really were not many opportunities for the second thing to happen.

 

[SpiderK]

If we freeze the team as is (rest of returning players plus 3 open spots), there is no way in my opinion that the 3 open spots turn into 3 starting transfers. There is no history of Mooney bringing in 3 quality transfers at once nor has there ever been a situation I can remember in the last 8 years where a younger guy supplanted an older one. Granted there really were not many opportunities for the second thing to happen.

I agree, we will be unbelievably lucky to get one starting transfer.

 

[SpiderDogg]

Agree if we get 2 transfers I prefer 2 bigs. One to start and one to come off bench

 

[SpiderGuy]

All due respect to everyone in the program, but I hope Mooney is not going to just defer to the older guys who have been in the program longer. His job is to field the very best team he can, every year. If that means starting three transfers next year, so be it. If not, that's fine too. Best players play.

For those of us who have been with this program forever and observed Mooney for his entire tenure, there are 2 facts to present. First - Mooney is loyal to returning players. Second - Mooney has a tendency to play smaller point guards. To the second point - Mooney has had exceptional success and continuity with the highly skilled 6 foot and under point guards recruited.

I have no idea what next year’s starting lineup looks like after losing many starters this year and uncertainty of transfers or not. But I’d look for patterns and history to repeat.

I agree that we need to field the best lineup however that plays out.

 

[SpiderDad75]

All due respect to everyone in the program, but I hope Mooney is not going to just defer to the older guys who have been in the program longer. His job is to field the very best team he can, every year. If that means starting three transfers next year, so be it. If not, that's fine too. Best players play.

I agree with you best players play. But who actually knows what these guys can do yet? Transfers are in the portal for a reason and the portal doesn’t always mean better. Wasn’t it you that said Jason starts from day 1? Why? Do you have insight or just a feeling? What is the difference from what I’m saying? Those guys on the bench didn’t come to sit their entire career. I’m not saying if we get transfers they shouldn’t play I’m just saying I didn’t agree with the post that said they wouldn’t play meaningful minutes that is all.

 

[spider23]

If we land Funk, I can agree with spiderDad here, I don't believe he is a clear upgrade at a guard spot over Goose, Dji, or Crabtree. I think the biggest thing holding those three back has been all three have had terrible injury history the last two years. Look at Crabtree's highlights at Tulane, and then compare to Funk's at Bucknell. I think Crabtree has much more athleticism and nicer shot. But Crab had hip surgeries and does not seem to have full explosion back, maybe one more year removed from injuries he takes a jump? Dji has been battling the Mooney quick hook and injuries for two years. But his length, handle, and athleticism say he can be a guy that takes a huge step next year in year 3. Goose has proven to be a winning contributor, very good defender - that we would like to see a little more from in shooting.

Watched some Patriot league this year, and looking at Funk highlights - one impression I get is that it is not the most athletic league. Wright coming from IVY looks way more impressive to my pedestrian eye. I know the IVY recruits more like an A10 or Mountain West than a Patriot League.

Funk does bring some proven stats from his sr year in a D1 league, but that was on cellar dweller in a low-mid level league. If I was spiderdad, would be more worried about us landing Wright or even McCorkle.

 

[spider23]

And the flip side to the argument that "guys are in the portal for a reason" - i.e. that they have some type of issue or deficiency - is that they are in there looking for a spot they can play immediately for the most part. I'm sure McCorkle at UVA is not transferring looking to ride the pine again, after two years doing so at UVA.

 

[SpiderDad75]

And the flip side to the argument that "guys are in the portal for a reason" - i.e. that they have some type of issue or deficiency - is that they are in there looking for a spot they can play immediately for the most part. I'm sure McCorkle at UVA is not transferring looking to ride the pine again, after two years doing so at UVA.

Spot on...I think Carson could help us with the "Shooter" need. I certainly will convey that

 

[Not-A-Homer]

If we land Funk, I can agree with spiderDad here, I don't believe he is a clear upgrade at a guard spot over Goose, Dji, or Crabtree. I think the biggest thing holding those three back has been all three have had terrible injury history the last two years. Look at Crabtree's highlights at Tulane, and then compare to Funk's at Bucknell. I think Crabtree has much more athleticism and nicer shot. But Crab had hip surgeries and does not seem to have full explosion back, maybe one more year removed from injuries he takes a jump? Dji has been battling the Mooney quick hook and injuries for two years. But his length, handle, and athleticism say he can be a guy that takes a huge step next year in year 3. Goose has proven to be a winning contributor, very good defender - that we would like to see a little more from in shooting.

Watched some Patriot league this year, and looking at Funk highlights - one impression I get is that it is not the most athletic league. Wright coming from IVY looks way more impressive to my pedestrian eye. I know the IVY recruits more like an A10 or Mountain West than a Patriot League.

Funk does bring some proven stats from his sr year in a D1 league, but that was on cellar dweller in a low-mid level league. If I was spiderdad, would be more worried about us landing Wright or even McCorkle.

Mostly agree with your sentiment here, however, I think that the fact that the Spiders are hunting hard in the portal for shooting guards is a MONSTER clue as to how the coaching staff sees things. Based on that clue alone, I am inclined to think that they feel that they need something more at that position.

 

[SpiderDad75]

Mostly agree with your sentiment here, however, I think that the fact that the Spiders are hunting hard in the portal for shooting guards is a MONSTER clue as to how the coaching staff sees things. Based on that clue alone, I am inclined to think that they feel that they need something more at that position.

Yeah thats fair...Looking at our roster..who out of that group is really known for having a 3pt clip? Maybe Connor but really no one else. Dji certainly wasn't recruited as a deadly shooter but doesn't mean he or the others can't improve. Noyes possibly but still RSFR with no experience. Lets get a big and a shooter and go to work. 😃

 

[Eight Legger]

I agree with you best players play. But who actually knows what these guys can do yet? Transfers are in the portal for a reason and the portal doesn’t always mean better. Wasn’t it you that said Jason starts from day 1? Why? Do you have insight or just a feeling? What is the difference from what I’m saying? Those guys on the bench didn’t come to sit their entire career. I’m not saying if we get transfers they shouldn’t play I’m just saying I didn’t agree with the post that said they wouldn’t play meaningful minutes that is all.

Yeah, I don't think we are really saying different things. Mooney's history is that he just defers to the older guys when he has them as options, or he starts the highly touted freshmen when he has no older guys. But this offseason is the first one that he really seems ready to embrace the transfer route and likely bring in at least one or two guys with immediate eligibility and long track records at the D-1 level, so I think it's a little more of an unknown as to how things will look.

I'm not a talent-evaluator, so the staff will have to determine whether the guys it has on the team now are better than the ones it's trying to bring in. It's possible that a lineup of Nelson/Dji/Goose/Burton/Grace/Crabtree/Noyes gets us 70 ppg and we're good to go. Or maybe we need a transfer center and transfer 2 guard to get us there. That's what the staff needs to decide.

And to your point, sure, no one goes to a school expecting to sit for four years, but that's always why some guys from every team usually transfer. Hopefully the best players play because they are the best options and not just because they've been in the program the longest. This is an area where I hope Mooney is evolving. We just need to put the very best team on the court we can every year, and if that means playing 5 freshmen over 5 seniors, then do it.

I do see Nelson as a day 1 starter, for a few reasons. He's a 2x state champion at 2 different schools and 2 different levels; he fits the mold of Kevin Anderson/Kendall Anthony/Jacob Gilyard, and all three of those guys played from day 1; and we have a need there. Will he play 40 mpg right away? I doubt it. More likely, he gets 20-25, Dji gets the rest of those and also splits some time at the 2, which gets him to 20-25 mpg too.

Another possibility is that Mooney knows Goose is gone, which creates more of a need at the 2/3 spot.

If everyone comes back, I could see something like this:
1 - Nelson 25 mpg/Dji 15 mpg
2 - Transfer 20 mpg/Goose 15 mpg/Dji 5 mpg
3 - Crabtree 15 mpg/Goose 15 mpg/Randolph 5 mpg/Noyes 5 mpg
4 - Burton 35 mpg/Someone 5 mpg
5 - Transfer 20 mpg/Grace 20 mpg

I don't know enough about Dread to know if he will see much action this year or not.

 

[spiderman]

I don't think Mooney recruiting transfer SGs shows we have a deficiency at the 2 or that Goose is leaving.
we currently have 3 openings. so we have depth problems all over. he'll get the best 3 players he can, with at least one being big. if the best he can get are backups ... that's not ideal. but it's an unfortunate possibility.

I also don't think Mooney has a predisposition to playing small PGs. I just think the best PGs he's been able to land have been small. and since they're the best, they play. I think the idea was Nelson and Wilson be the long term PGs. Wilson really only got a shot to prove himself at the 2. but since Wilson regressed and now left, that opens the door for Dji to move back to the point ... which as Dad has pointed out is really his most natural position and probably where he's best with the ball in his hands. I think it'll be a great competition between the two, and we're probably in a no lose situation. plus Dji can also play the 2 next to Nelson.

Eight, I think your lineup looks pretty good. I'm starting to think Randolph's more of a 2 than a 3. he's quicker than I expected and has a better handle. I think we land Quinn, and Grace's roll is similar to this past year where he backs up at 5 and plays some 4. I think Burton plays 3 and 4 if we land 2 bigger guys.

 

[spider23]

If we land Quinn, again I think Bryce - or a player like Bryce would be ideal to put in the mix. Bryce is big and athletic and with Quinn (opposed to Stephens) not really a 3 point threat - Bryce would be more critical to stretch the floor. With Bryce (or Grace) next to Burton - you now have 3 point shooting threats at the forwards. So if one of the guards on the floor is not a real threat - you still have some fire power from 3.