Agree 97 - if you know the RPI anchors are coming because of an exempt tourney - then try to schedule appropriatley otherwise.
Here would be my breakdown of the OOC schedule - which typically is about 14-15 games.
RPI Anchors - 4 games where the RPI is over 150, even over 200.
Mid Level - 5 games - RPI games around 75-150. This should be games where luck comes into play. Maybe a lowe conference team, who is picked to do well, so they can squeak in with an RPI around 100.
RPI top 75 - 4 games. I say top 75 because this gives you a little buffer. If the team does not do so well, still a chance they hover around RPI top 100. IF they do well - then maybe they squeak into top 50.
Top Level Games - 2-3 - Big time opponents, who we know will be good. In years past - this would be teams like Kansas, Minnesota, Florida, UNC, etc. This likely will come about as a one time game, or exempt tourney opponent.
From a win/loss prediction - I would assume we would be picked to win all RPI anchor and mid level games. RPI Top 75 level would be 50/50 games. And top level games we would surely be underdogs. Win 2 top 75 games, and steal one upset in the top level games - you could come out with very good OOC record before A10 play.
Again - this is easier said than done as there are so many things behind the scenes with scheduling that makes this extremely difficult. But for a team like us - we rely heavily on the exempt tourney's from year to year. Last year - it hurt us. Years before - it helped us.