NET rankings

[ChoppinBroccoli]

It's not just about Quad 1. Quad 2 games are still quality games. VCU is 7-0 in Quad 2, so 7-3 overall in "quality games." They're not ranked ahead of anyone with a comparable record in quality games, except maybe Oregon, who is 6-2 across Q1 and Q2. In fact, not too many of the teams ranked ahead of them can boast a 7-3 record in quality games.

Colgate is just a fluke because they've only played 11 games, and 3 of their first 4 wins were by 40+ points. Their point differential is way out of whack. They're irrelevant to the VCU discussion. Of course they would drop more than one slot if they lost a Q3 home game. They dropped three spots yesterday because they "only" beat BU by 10.

As others have pointed out, there is a difference between losing to LaSalle at home and George Mason at home in OT. We remain the highest ranked team with a Q4 loss on our resume.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Shaka Smart was the media darling while at VCU and maintains that status at Texas. He "elevated" the media hype profile for VCU and the allure remains to this day and affects the NET as well as the committee that votes for NCAA tournament teams. Agree their current NET ranking is nonsensical.

The media hype has nothing to do with the NET.

 

[spider fan]

"Tongue in cheek" maybe, you think?

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

"Tongue in cheek" maybe, you think?

Sorry, I missed your tone. There are some who believe the NET is somehow influenced by human biases.

 

[spider fan]

Think the "thought" that somehow Broad Street/VCU gets all "kinds" of magical/unwarranted advantages is an "easy play" on the minds of many of our fans including me. Sad reality is they "pound us" on the basketball court and when/if/until that changes "they" will stay ahead of us in all kinds of measurements of basketball excellence............and yes "pains me" to say it..............but can't deny it.

 

[8legs1dream]

I 150% guarantee that the next head coach they bring in, whoever it is and whenever it is will care more about beating VCU than the current lame duck does.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

SF, do you have any idea why they're not putting out the Team Sheets this year? I found them incredibly helpful, as we got to look at exactly what the committee would be using in their evaluations.

I certainly appreciate you re-creating them manually.

 

[SFspidur]

I don't know why the NCAA isn't releasing daily team sheets this year, but some of the third-party folks do a pretty good job.

- Nolan's format is awfully close to what the NCAA uses:

Richmond Spiders NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2021 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Richmond Spiders 2021 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants

warrennolan.com

- Bracketologists' is also pretty good:

Richmond Spiders NET Team Sheet at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

 

[SFspidur]

We moved up three spots with last night's win, while SLU dropped five spots, so we're now neck-and-neck. Résumé is firming up...SLU will be a Q1 game, while St. Joe's will be a Q4. Not a ton of potential for quad movement...Davidson has a shot to move back to Q1 with a couple of tough games remaining.

Hofstra is hanging in as a Q3 loss and they're still in a pause...their series against Charleston last weekend didn't happen and their regular-season finale series against Elon this weekend has also been canceled.

Current A-10 rankings:

35. VCU
39. Bona
53. SLU
55. UR
78. Davidson
80. Dayton
99. URI
117. UMass
130. Duquesne
134. Mason
194. La Salle
224. GW
258. St. Joe's
320. Fordham

Our NET résumé:

Q1 (2–2)
11. Loyola (N) - W
15. WVU (A) - L
35. VCU (A) - L
64. Kentucky (A) - W

Q2 (3–1)
39. Bona (H) - L
78. Davidson (A) - W
123. Vanderbilt (A) - W
134. George Mason (A) - W

Q3 (5–1)
99. URI (H) - W
110. Wofford (H) - W
117. UMass (H) - W
130. Duquesne (H) - W
141. Morehead St. (N) - W
149. Hofstra (H) - L

Q4 (2–1)
194. La Salle (H) - L
204. UNI (H) - W
258. St. Joe's (A) - W

 

[urmite]

I wonder if Davidson will be +1 O/U 135 in both their last 2 home games.

Too many of these last few A-10 games help A-10 seeding, but hurt at-large chances or vice versa...

 

[Eight Legger]

It feels wrong that you can win a top-100 game at home and it's only a Q3 win. I think that needs some adjustment.

 

[urmite]

It feels wrong that you can win a top-100 game at home and it's only a Q3 win. I think that needs some adjustment.

75 away Q1
76 at home Q3
always seems like a stretch...

 

[spiderman]

75 away Q1
76 at home Q3
always seems like a stretch...

especially this year when home court doesn't mean as much.

 

[SFspidur]

Gonna update again because we're getting toward crunch time and both we and SLU actually moved up 3 spots yesterday even though we didn't play. St. Joe's moved up to a Q3 for us thanks to their win over Dayton which moved them up 24 spots in the NET. Every little bit counts.

A week ago we were at 61 and now we're at 52. Tomorrow night is a must-win to keep things moving in the right direction if we want any chance at an at-large.

Current A-10 rankings:

35. VCU
36. Bona
50. SLU
52. UR
82. Davidson
92. Dayton
100. URI
115. UMass
134. Mason
146. Duquesne
181. La Salle
227. GW
234. St. Joe's
320. Fordham

Our NET résumé:

Q1 (2–2)
10. Loyola (N) - W
14. WVU (A) - L
35. VCU (A) - L
65. Kentucky (A) - W

Q2 (3–1)
36. Bona (H) - L
82. Davidson (A) - W
125. Vanderbilt (A) - W
134. George Mason (A) - W

Q3 (6–1)
100. URI (H) - W
111. Wofford (H) - W
115. UMass (H) - W
140. Morehead St. (N) - W
146. Duquesne (H) - W
149. Hofstra (H) - L
234. St. Joe's (A) - W

Q4 (1–1)
181. La Salle (H) - L
203. UNI (H) - W

 

[urmite]

Gonna update again because we're getting toward crunch time and both us and SLU actually moved up 3 spots yesterday even though we didn't play. St. Joe's moved up to a Q3 for us thanks to their win over Dayton which moved them up 24 spots in the NET. Every little bit counts.

A week ago we were at 61 and now we're at 52. Tomorrow night is a must-win to keep things moving in the right direction if we want any chance at an at-large.

Current A-10 rankings:

35. VCU
36. Bona
50. SLU
52. UR
82. Davidson
92. Dayton
100. URI
115. UMass
134. Mason
146. Duquesne
181. La Salle
227. GW
234. St. Joe's
320. Fordham

Our NET résumé:

Q1 (2–2)
10. Loyola (N) - W
14. WVU (A) - L
35. VCU (A) - L
65. Kentucky (A) - W

Q2 (3–1)
36. Bona (H) - L
82. Davidson (A) - W
125. Vanderbilt (A) - W
134. George Mason (A) - W

Q3 (6–1)
100. URI (H) - W
111. Wofford (H) - W
115. UMass (H) - W
140. Morehead St. (N) - W
146. Duquesne (H) - W
149. Hofstra (H) - L
234. St. Joe's (A) - W

Q4 (1–1)
181. La Salle (H) - L
203. UNI (H) - W

A win at SLU would replace the falling win at Davidson.
Now how much does Davidson need to win by on Saturday to get to 75?

 

[8legs1dream]

we would actually be in pretty good shape if it wasn't for that loss to LaSalle.

 

[urmite]

we would actually be in pretty good shape if it wasn't for that loss to LaSalle.

LaSalle shooting .594 from 2, .529 from 3...ouch!

 

[urmite]

How many A-10 teams end with a conference record of .500? Especially if LaSalle beats GMU, and Duquesne beats URI...

8 games left in the regular season.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

especially this year when home court doesn't mean as much.

That's what I've been saying! fan2011 tells me the quads are perfect, so I simmered down.

 

[urmite]

That's what I've been saying! fan2011 tells me the quads are perfect, so I simmered down.

I think it was something like...
The location change, away to home, is worth 3.1x2 points and the crowd is worth .3x2 points...

 

[KE Spider]

Shouldn't there be a derivative in there somewhere?

 

[Eight Legger]

Compare us with Virginia Tech across all the various computer rankings and then explain to me how Lunardi has them as a 6-seed and us third team out. Better yet, explain how they are ranked 16th when no computer rankings puts them higher than 40th...

 

[spider fan]

They are third in the mighty ACC

 

[712_VT]

They are third in the mighty ACC

Have to admit that Tech is pretty deceiving this year. They have some big wins; nova, uva, clemson, sort of Duke but also have some bad losses; penn state, pitt, Syracuse and GT-all of which were blow outs. Tech is very reliant on shooting the three and if it isn’t falling on a given night then things can get bad. They are still very undersized and quite honestly don’t have a ton of talent except for a couple guys. That being said if you had told me the Hokies would be where they are right now I wouldn’t believe you. Ya the acc isn’t that good of a league this year but Tech has still stepped up and gotten it done when most of the league hasn’t. What they are doing this year is the sign of a good coach.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Compare us with Virginia Tech across all the various computer rankings and then explain to me how Lunardi has them as a 6-seed and us third team out. Better yet, explain how they are ranked 16th when no computer rankings puts them higher than 40th...

Computers don't pick the tournament field.

 

[spider23]

Villanova win is huge for them.

 

[Eight Legger]

Computers don't pick the tournament field.

Well they're certainly a big part of it. I'm just saying I was shocked to see the difference in their computer rankings across the board compared to their national ranking. I agree they have some better wins than us but obviously there's something missing in their resume or they'd be much higher on the computers. Which for the most part are a lot more in line with the national rankings.

 

[GKiller]

We can stop looking at the NET if we lose tonight.

 

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Well they're certainly a big part of it. I'm just saying I was shocked to see the difference in their computer rankings across the board compared to their national ranking. I agree they have some better wins than us but obviously there's something missing in their resume or they'd be much higher on the computers. Which for the most part are a lot more in line with the national rankings.

I'm really disappointed that Colgate isn't getting any votes.

 

[SFspidur]

Spiders drop four spots to 56, Billikens move up six spots to 44. Bona also moved up to 29 and became a Q1 for us.

 

[urmite]

Spiders drop four spots to 56, Billikens move up six spots to 44. Bona also moved up to 29 and became a Q1 for us.

And for others...

 

[8legs1dream]

And for others...

hmm whatever could you mean Mite?

 

[SFspidur]

Pretty incredible to see some of the NET moves this late in the season. I continue to be amazed by how much margin of victory apparently contributes, even with the NCAA having thrown it out entirely as a factor, so it must be baked into the TVI or efficiency component with a very heavy weight somehow.

Look at GW...they lost at Bona on Saturday. A bad team playing a very good team on the road, so you wouldn't think losing that game would hurt GW too badly...they're already pretty low and Bona should help GW's TVI, being such a quality opponent. But GW still dropped 30 spots in the NET with the loss, and of course, the obvious explanation is they lost the game by 47 points.

Scoring margin as a standalone component used to be capped at 10 points, but it's clear that whatever system they're using now incorporates it somehow with little or no cap.

Anyway, we got our Davidson Q1 win back thanks to them knocking off VCU, so we're now 3–4 against Q1. Our NET rose three spots to 53, while SLU slid back four spots to 49. Feels like the uneven schedule is causing a bigger impact on conference teams on non-game days...like Davidson over VCU kind of balanced each other out on our SOS, but SLU didn't play Davidson, so they only got the VCU hit on theirs. It used to be you could get some differential based on home-and-home pairs, but it's magnified this year with some matchups not happening at all.

 

[urmite]

While all of this seems to be academic at this point...
Interesting that we are in more & higher percentage of brackets than we were Friday morning from 12 of 110 to 14 of 104. But could easily just be the lag in publishing. And anything under 40 of 104 is extremely remote in any case.

If we beat St Joe, I wonder which scenario improves our NET more...
SLU beats UMass we beat UMass (neutral) lose VCU (away)
UMass beats SLU we beat Davidson (neutral) lose SBU (neutral)

I just wish this wasn't academic and that I could predict a victory Saturday...

 

[Eight Legger]

Our only chance is to win the tournament. That's it.

 

[urmite]

Our only chance is to win the tournament. That's it.

I agree, but this is strange...

middle of last night

 

[Eight Legger]

There's no way for us to pass six teams though. We'd have to beat VCU and Bonaventure, but if we do that, we win the league anyway.

 

[3genspider]

just building/justifying his "schedule consultant" resume

 

[urmite]

Our only chance is to win the tournament. That's it.

I agree, but I would like to test going 3-1...at least 3-1

 

[Eight Legger]

I agree, but I would like to test going 3-1...at least 3-1

We'd have to hope for SLU to finish 6th so that we could play them in our first game, then VCU in our second, and we would have to lose to Bona (no one else) in the final in another really close game. If someone else made it to the final and beat us, no chance.