NET rankings
- Thread starter Eight Legger
- Start date
Their schedule isn't even that good...they lost to us and Wisconsin, and they beat a decent North Texas team. The key is that they're just flat out winning, frequently by large margins. Their average scoring margin is +18.3. Granted, that includes a couple of non-DI games, but remove those and it's still +16.5. Our average scoring margin is +6.0.
which I think shows that teams don't have to schedule really hard. you just have to win.
Win big. NET seems to really reward that...more than it seems like it should. Scoring margin was initially part of NET but capped at 10, but the factor was removed when they simplified the formula this year. So is it somehow baked into the black box that is the TVI component of NET?
Super Bowl Sunday update! Top 4 A-10 teams continue to cluster, but we're slightly below the rest of the bunch. Not really a ton of movement as things seem to be stabilizing as we get toward the end of the season. Kentucky has slipped back to a Q2 over the past week, while URI can't get over the hump from Q3 to Q2.
Current A-10 rankings:
40. Bona
41. VCU
43. SLU
51. UR
67. Davidson
86. Dayton
88. URI
104. UMass
124. Duquesne
165. Mason
170. La Salle
235. GW
266. St. Joe's
299. Fordham
Our NET résumé:
Q1 (2–1)
14. Loyola (N) - W
21. WVU (A) - L
67. Davidson (A) - W
Q2 (1–1)
40. Bona (H) - L
80. Kentucky (A) - W
Q3 (5–1)
88. URI (H) - W
99. Wofford (H) - W
140. Hofstra (H) - L
145. Morehead St. (N) - W
149. Vanderbilt (A) - W
165. George Mason (A) - W
Q4 (2–1)
170. La Salle (H) - L
198. UNI (H) - W
266. St. Joe's (A) - W
Current A-10 rankings:
40. Bona
41. VCU
43. SLU
51. UR
67. Davidson
86. Dayton
88. URI
104. UMass
124. Duquesne
165. Mason
170. La Salle
235. GW
266. St. Joe's
299. Fordham
Our NET résumé:
Q1 (2–1)
14. Loyola (N) - W
21. WVU (A) - L
67. Davidson (A) - W
Q2 (1–1)
40. Bona (H) - L
80. Kentucky (A) - W
Q3 (5–1)
88. URI (H) - W
99. Wofford (H) - W
140. Hofstra (H) - L
145. Morehead St. (N) - W
149. Vanderbilt (A) - W
165. George Mason (A) - W
Q4 (2–1)
170. La Salle (H) - L
198. UNI (H) - W
266. St. Joe's (A) - W
Loyola has won 10 in a row but was just leapfrogged by Colgate, which hasn’t played since Jan. 31.
Colgate is in danger of not even meeting the 13-game minimum needed to be eligible for the dance. Curious to see what happens with that. I don't see any way they'd get an at-large with their profile, as their NET would be viewed as an abberration. A run to an auto bid would include three games in the Patriot League tournament, so they'd only need to get a couple more regular season games in to be dance-eligible. The entire Patriot outside of Army and Navy is in the same situation since they didn't play non-conference schedules and have had a lot of postponements.
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8legs1dream
Team Manager
A10 NET rankings as of this morning
1. VCU = 36
2. SBU = 39
3. SLU = 43
4. Richmond = 53
5. Davidson = 68
6. Rhodey = 88
7. Dayton = 91
8. UMASS = 105
9. Duquesne = 126
10. Mason = 167
11. LaSalle = 172
12. GW = 235
13. St. Joe's = 269
14. Fordham = 300
1. VCU = 36
2. SBU = 39
3. SLU = 43
4. Richmond = 53
5. Davidson = 68
6. Rhodey = 88
7. Dayton = 91
8. UMASS = 105
9. Duquesne = 126
10. Mason = 167
11. LaSalle = 172
12. GW = 235
13. St. Joe's = 269
14. Fordham = 300
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Colgate just beat Army by 10. I suspect they will be in the Top 5 in NET tomorrow morning.
Kentucky up to 76 today with that Auburn win, so we are one spot away from being 3-1 in Q1. Only eight teams ahead of us in the NET have at least 3 Q1 wins and a 75% or better winning percentage in Q1 games.
Vandy also jumped 26 spots thanks to their Miss St. win, making them a Q2 for us.
Kentucky won't finish in the top 75. Keep hanging onto that one amazing, title-worthy, Loyola win.
Keep hanging onto that one amazing, CBI title-worthy, NC A&T win.
75 WKU and 72 No Tx play a double header next weekend. UK could pass one of them...
Without looking at their schedule, I suspect almost the teams UK plays from here on are in the top 100 and a bunch are probably top 25 or 50. All they really need is a couple top 75 wins and they should stick in that range themselves.
Another one that would help is their Senior night against the gators, UK won 1/9 in Gainesville.
The ranges on the Quads has always been the weakness of this system, even before NET. Is the #75 team really a Quad 1 team on the road, while just barely a Quad 2 team at home? Especially this year, when there is practically no home court advantage?
This has hurt us in the past - it may help us this year.
This has hurt us in the past - it may help us this year.
Home court advantage is 3-4 points for most teams, so switching home and away is ~7 point swing. According to kenpom, 7 points the expected margin of victory on a neutral court for the 30th team over the 75th team. Put another way, according to kenpom playing the 75th best team on the road is equivalent to playing the 30th best team at home in terms of expected margin of victory. This lines up perfectly with the NET quads, and most other rating systems. That is no mistake.
I realize it's by design and understand the reasoning. The differences in ratings could be microscopic between #75 and #76. If Kentucky played at Western KY, it would be a Quad 1 game for KY and Quad 3 for WKY. They could switch places tomorrow in the NET based on one random basket in the Missouri-Georgia game, and suddenly it's Quad 2 for both of them? I'm glad there's a human committee looking at it.
I also don't think it's unreasonable to speculate that home court advantage is lower this season. With these back-to-backs in empty arenas, the NET and Quads are probably slightly punitive to the home teams.
For sure...KenPom dropped his model's home-court advantage metric from ~3.5 points to 2.25 points based on the early season results.
The home team has won 57.3% of games so far this year. That number is usually around 60, give or take a point, so it's down a noticeable amount but not earthshattering. Of course, you wouldn't expect it to dip close to 50-50, as there are still some advantages and the OOC schedules still had many buy games advantaging the teams that were largely better to begin with.
The home team has won 57.3% of games so far this year. That number is usually around 60, give or take a point, so it's down a noticeable amount but not earthshattering. Of course, you wouldn't expect it to dip close to 50-50, as there are still some advantages and the OOC schedules still had many buy games advantaging the teams that were largely better to begin with.
Time for another recap of where things stand after the weekend. Loyola actually wasn't hurt by the OT loss to Drake, as a 1-point loss on the road to a highly rated opponent has minimal impact. I still thought they'd drop a few spots.
As I noted yesterday, Vandy has moved up a Q2 for us, which is nice. Kentucky is on cusp of being a Q1, while Davidson is hanging on as a Q1 but drifting back toward the cutoff. Hofstra still hanging in as a Q3 despite getting swept by JMU this weekend, while La Salle is stuck in Q4.
Interesting to see how close the major rating systems are clustered for us...NET, KenPom, Sagarin, and KPI all have us in the 53–55 range. Only the BPI is a bit different with us at 43.
Current A-10 rankings:
31. VCU
32. SLU
41. Bona
54. UR
71. Davidson
88. URI
89. Dayton
111. UMass
132. Duquesne
155. Mason
180. La Salle
244. GW
270. St. Joe's
318. Fordham
Our NET résumé:
Q1 (2–1)
10. Loyola (N) - W
16. WVU (A) - L
71. Davidson (A) - W
Q2 (2–1)
41. Bona (H) - L
76. Kentucky (A) - W
127. Vanderbilt (A) - W
Q3 (4–1)
88. URI (H) - W
124. Wofford (H) - W
140. Morehead St. (N) - W
150. Hofstra (H) - L
155. George Mason (A) - W
Q4 (2–1)
180. La Salle (H) - L
199. UNI (H) - W
270. St. Joe's (A) - W
As I noted yesterday, Vandy has moved up a Q2 for us, which is nice. Kentucky is on cusp of being a Q1, while Davidson is hanging on as a Q1 but drifting back toward the cutoff. Hofstra still hanging in as a Q3 despite getting swept by JMU this weekend, while La Salle is stuck in Q4.
Interesting to see how close the major rating systems are clustered for us...NET, KenPom, Sagarin, and KPI all have us in the 53–55 range. Only the BPI is a bit different with us at 43.
Current A-10 rankings:
31. VCU
32. SLU
41. Bona
54. UR
71. Davidson
88. URI
89. Dayton
111. UMass
132. Duquesne
155. Mason
180. La Salle
244. GW
270. St. Joe's
318. Fordham
Our NET résumé:
Q1 (2–1)
10. Loyola (N) - W
16. WVU (A) - L
71. Davidson (A) - W
Q2 (2–1)
41. Bona (H) - L
76. Kentucky (A) - W
127. Vanderbilt (A) - W
Q3 (4–1)
88. URI (H) - W
124. Wofford (H) - W
140. Morehead St. (N) - W
150. Hofstra (H) - L
155. George Mason (A) - W
Q4 (2–1)
180. La Salle (H) - L
199. UNI (H) - W
270. St. Joe's (A) - W
Things are slip, slipping away, but still worth looking at the NET for now...we dropped 5 spots with the loss, and more importantly missed out on a chance at a Q1 win.
Kentucky beat Vandy last night, but UK's NET didn't budge to push them over the hump to Q1. Vandy dropped a few spots but is hanging on as a Q2 for now. Overall, no change in our quad records over the last few days with the exception of the new Q1 loss.
Current A-10 rankings:
31. VCU
32. SLU
41. Bona
60. UR
73. Davidson
87. URI
94. Dayton
111. UMass
133. Duquesne
156. Mason
180. La Salle
246. GW
269. St. Joe's
318. Fordham
Our NET résumé:
Q1 (2–2)
11. Loyola (N) - W
17. WVU (A) - L
31. VCU (A) - L
73. Davidson (A) - W
Q2 (2–1)
41. Bona (H) - L
76. Kentucky (A) - W
131. Vanderbilt (A) - W
Q3 (4–1)
87. URI (H) - W
121. Wofford (H) - W
140. Morehead St. (N) - W
151. Hofstra (H) - L
156. George Mason (A) - W
Q4 (2–1)
180. La Salle (H) - L
202. UNI (H) - W
269. St. Joe's (A) - W
Kentucky beat Vandy last night, but UK's NET didn't budge to push them over the hump to Q1. Vandy dropped a few spots but is hanging on as a Q2 for now. Overall, no change in our quad records over the last few days with the exception of the new Q1 loss.
Current A-10 rankings:
31. VCU
32. SLU
41. Bona
60. UR
73. Davidson
87. URI
94. Dayton
111. UMass
133. Duquesne
156. Mason
180. La Salle
246. GW
269. St. Joe's
318. Fordham
Our NET résumé:
Q1 (2–2)
11. Loyola (N) - W
17. WVU (A) - L
31. VCU (A) - L
73. Davidson (A) - W
Q2 (2–1)
41. Bona (H) - L
76. Kentucky (A) - W
131. Vanderbilt (A) - W
Q3 (4–1)
87. URI (H) - W
121. Wofford (H) - W
140. Morehead St. (N) - W
151. Hofstra (H) - L
156. George Mason (A) - W
Q4 (2–1)
180. La Salle (H) - L
202. UNI (H) - W
269. St. Joe's (A) - W
We need to beat VCU, SLU and somehow Bona to have a chance at an at-large. I don't know if the Bona game will get rescheduled, but we need it to.
Our NET didn't budge with the win over Duquesne, stuck at 59 where it was heading into the game. But Kentucky's shellacking of Tennessee moved them into Q1 for us, so that was a nice move for us. Mason also squeaked up to a Q2, thanks to them moving up 21 spots with their win over VCU.
Current A-10 rankings:
35. VCU
45. Bona
48. SLU
59. UR
72. Davidson
79. Dayton
92. URI
109. UMass
129. Duquesne
133. Mason
191. La Salle
248. GW
257. St. Joe's
319. Fordham
Our NET résumé:
Q1 (3–2)
11. Loyola (N) - W
15. WVU (A) - L
35. VCU (A) - L
64. Kentucky (A) - W
72. Davidson (A) - W
Q2 (2–1)
45. Bona (H) - L
123. Vanderbilt (A) - W
133. George Mason (A) - W
Q3 (4–1)
92. URI (H) - W
111. Wofford (H) - W
129. Duquesne (H) - W
142. Morehead St. (N) - W
149. Hofstra (H) - L
Q4 (2–1)
191. La Salle (H) - L
205. UNI (H) - W
257. St. Joe's (A) - W
Current A-10 rankings:
35. VCU
45. Bona
48. SLU
59. UR
72. Davidson
79. Dayton
92. URI
109. UMass
129. Duquesne
133. Mason
191. La Salle
248. GW
257. St. Joe's
319. Fordham
Our NET résumé:
Q1 (3–2)
11. Loyola (N) - W
15. WVU (A) - L
35. VCU (A) - L
64. Kentucky (A) - W
72. Davidson (A) - W
Q2 (2–1)
45. Bona (H) - L
123. Vanderbilt (A) - W
133. George Mason (A) - W
Q3 (4–1)
92. URI (H) - W
111. Wofford (H) - W
129. Duquesne (H) - W
142. Morehead St. (N) - W
149. Hofstra (H) - L
Q4 (2–1)
191. La Salle (H) - L
205. UNI (H) - W
257. St. Joe's (A) - W
It just feels like they have a way of gaming the system every year. They have no Q1 wins! Any other team that was in that boat and lost a game like they did yesterday is dropping at least 15 spots. They barely move. It's illogical. Look how far we fell after we lost to LaSalle at home.
GMU is 133 needs to be >160 to compare to LaSalle.
We will see what the humans think as oppose to the computers.
They were 154 before they won yesterday though, that's my point. Basically the same exact scenario.
La Salle was 208 at the time they beat us and moved up to 185.
Yeah, VCU has hacked the NET. 
I'm just saying it makes no sense and I'm trying to understand it. There are three teams in the top-35 of NET without a Q1 win. VCU is one, Colgate is another and SDSU is the third. Colgate obviously has gamed the system, don't you agree? Not through its own doing, but the system is clearly flawed there. Colgate doesn't even have any Q2 wins. But I guarantee if they lost a home game to #154, they would drop farther than #14.Yeah, VCU has hacked the NET.
Shaka Smart was the media darling while at VCU and maintains that status at Texas. He "elevated" the media hype profile for VCU and the allure remains to this day and affects the NET as well as the committee that votes for NCAA tournament teams. Agree their current NET ranking is nonsensical.
