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FDU Game

Opponent: Fairleigh Dickinson (5-6) --> Preseason T-6th in NEC

"It’s the start of a new era at FDU with the arrival of Tobin Anderson, who turned St. Thomas Aquinas into a DII national powerhouse and plans to implement the same unique high octane offense and 90-feet of pressure defensive approach in Hackensack. Anderson didn’t come alone, bringing along three of his key players at STAC, most notably graduate guard Demetre Roberts (Mount Vernon, NY/Mount Vernon (St. Thomas Aquinas)), who scored 1,585 points for the Spartans and was a three-time All-ECC pick, and fellow graduate Grant Singleton (Sumter, SC/Lakewood (St. Thomas Aquinas), himself an All-ECC guard and career 1,115-point scorer.


Key Results:
  • VMI - W: 93-89 --> Richmond won 69-48
  • St. Joe's - W: 97-80 --> A-10 Opponent
  • Loyola (IL) - L: 82-88 (OT) --> A-10 Opponent
  • Pitt - L: 61-83 --> Preseason 14th in ACC
Team Stats:
  • Points Per Game: 80.2 (46th)
  • Points Allowed Per Game: 80.2 (353rd)
  • 2 PT Shooting: 53.9% (94th)
  • 3 PT Shooting: 32.4% (249th)
  • FT Shooting: 74.5% (60th)
Key Player:

Demetre Roberts
  • Field Goals Attempted: 149 (38th in Country)
  • 3-Point Percentage: 38.1% (Highest among starters)
  • Assists: 47 (Highest on Team)
  • Turnovers: 22 (Highest on Team)
All this man does is shoot, shoot, shoot, no matter what. FDU as a team ranks 17th in the country in Field Goal Attempts per game, and though their overall percentages are not great, they do make enough chances for themselves to have Top-50 PPG scoring potential. Tobin Anderson has brought his star players to FDU and they're doing well at the D-1 level. The team has and will continue to live and die by Roberts' performances, and so shutting him down will go a long way. Their press style of defense hasn't gone to plan so far, ranking close to the bottom across all D-1 schools, but expect them to continue that against Richmond, at least to start. Beat the press, play within ourselves, and shut down Roberts and we have ourselves a W!

RPIM's for FDU

PlayerRPIMRPIM/Game
Demetre Roberts254.0623.10
Heru Bligen*196.5321.84
Grant Singleton238.5121.68
Ansley Almonor180.2118.02
Joe Munden36.709.18
Cameron Tweedy69.366.94
Sean Moore67.796.78
Sebastien Lamaute73.066.64
Brandon Upshaw5.135.13
Jo'el Emanuel45.984.18
Trevon Blassingame35.733.25
Brayden Reynolds16.562.76
Daniel Rodriguez6.192.06
Pier-Olivier Racine3.661.22

* = Injured
 
KenPom has us winning this one 81-62. If we bring the same defense we have seen for most of the year, I could see that playing out. Drake did look out of sorts and poor energy and body language right away, as another poster pointed out. BUT, part of that definitely gets attributed to our defense. We are continuing to be very good at moving our feet and helping on that end. I feel like even despite the loss of Gilly we may be stealing the ball at a higher rate this year, as we have a bunch of guys looking to strip the ball when they help, as well as opportunistic in the passing lanes. I really think BIgs is a tone setter on that end. He hates to let a guy get an uncontested layup, lot of charges taken and blocks from the help side.
 
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In trying to look at degrees of separation, they beat VMI & ST Joe…
 
KenPom has us winning this one 81-62. If we bring the same defense we have seen for most of the year, I could see that playing out. Drake did look out of sorts and poor energy and body language right away, as another poster pointed out. BUT, part of that definitely gets attributed to our defense. We are continuing to be very good at moving our feet and helping on that end. I feel like even despite the loss of Gilly we may be stealing the ball at a higher rate this year, as we have a bunch of guys looking to strip the ball when they help, as well as opportunistic in the passing lanes. I really think BIgs is a tone setter on that end. He hates to let a guy get an uncontested layup, lot of charges taken and blocks from the help side.
We are actually stealing at a much lower rate this year than we did with Gilyard, and have the worst steal rate since Mooney's first year.

We currently rank 215th in steal rate, we were top 25 all but one year with Gilyard.

2022: 46th
2021: 8th
2020: 19th
2019: 24th
2018: 18th
 
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Key for me is assist to turnover ratio as a team. Here's last year compared to this year so far:

2021-2022: 1.485 A/TO
2022-2023: 0.983 A/TO

Let it be known Gilyard's A/TO Ratio was 3.414. Regardless, that's unacceptable to have more Turnovers than Assists, and we're averaging 2.86 more turnovers per game than last year so far.
 
In regards to Steals, we're averaging 1.8 fewer steals per game so far this season than last years average. Makes sense without Gilly, but that combined with the low Assist to Turnover ratio doesn't paint our team well both offensively and defensively.

However we rank 77th in Points Allowed this season, compared to 154th last season. Doubling that ranking means the changes we're making are working, event without thefts.
 
I love steals because a lot of times, in addition to taken a chance to score away from the opponent, they often lead to easy buckets at the other end. But, you can be a great defensive team without steals. We are very active, getting hands on balls, making simple passes difficult, forcing guys outside to catch passes, doubling and rotating at the right time, altering shots, drawing charges, and just getting after it. It takes all 5 to give great effort defensively to make things work at that end, and that is exactly what we are doing. I don't care what our steals number looks like as long we keep playing great defense.
 
Speaking of steals, that was a super sequence when Jaynel got the steal flipped it to Burton, who caught and passed it back to Jaynel in one motion for the layup.

Yes, the overall play of the defensive unit has been very good. I have been very impressed with both Bigs and Roche's energy and willingness on this side of the court.
 
Speaking of steals, that was a super sequence when Jaynel got the steal flipped it to Burton, who caught and passed it back to Jaynel in one motion for the layup.

Yes, the overall play of the defensive unit has been very good. I have been very impressed with both Bigs and Roche's energy and willingness on this side of the court.
Yes - that was a great sequence and was also after one of Jaynels 3s.
 
Here’s a Basketball 101 question that must have a very logical answer, but I don’t know what it is… Why is assist-to-turnover ratio a thing that we measure? Are the two really even connected closely enough that it provides any meaningful insight? In some ways it feels like we’re putting together a Dunks-to-Timeouts-Remaining ratio of two mostly unrelated things.

Obviously you don’t want turnovers, and I realize that more assists typically means more points and a more fluid offense, but it has always felt like those ought to just be separate stats that we evaluate individually rather than in relation to each other. So someone enlighten me please!
 
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Here’s a Basketball 101 question that must have a very logical answer, but I don’t know what it is… Why is assist-to-turnover ratio a thing that we measure? Are the two really even connected closely enough that it provides any meaningful insight? In some ways it feels like we’re putting together a Dunks-to-Timeouts-Remaining ratio of two mostly unrelated things.

Obviously you don’t want turnovers, and I realize that more assists typically means more points and a more fluid offense, but it has always felt like those ought to just be separate stats that we evaluate individually rather than in relation to each other. So someone enlighten me please!
agreed. steals to turnovers would make more sense (gaining a possession vs losing a possession).
guess it's just a way to compare ball handlers i.e. who makes more positive plays vs negative plays.
 
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Here’s a Basketball 101 question that must have a very logical answer, but I don’t know what it is… Why is assist-to-turnover ratio a thing that we measure? Are the two really even connected closely enough that it provides any meaningful insight? In some ways it feels like we’re putting together a Dunks-to-Timeouts-Remaining ratio of two mostly unrelated things.

Obviously you don’t want turnovers, and I realize that more assists typically means more points and a more fluid offense, but it has always felt like those ought to just be separate stats that we evaluate individually rather than in relation to each other. So someone enlighten me please!
I think it matters for PGs who handle the ball a lot. Meaning if you are the main PG on your team, you play a lot, and you handle the ball every possession, you want to have a good assist/turnover ratio. Protect the ball and get it to guys who can score. Assists can vary and depend on other guys making shots, but over time this ratio will usually be a good measure of how the PG is playing.
 
Here’s a Basketball 101 question that must have a very logical answer, but I don’t know what it is… Why is assist-to-turnover ratio a thing that we measure? Are the two really even connected closely enough that it provides any meaningful insight? In some ways it feels like we’re putting together a Dunks-to-Timeouts-Remaining ratio of two mostly unrelated things.

Obviously you don’t want turnovers, and I realize that more assists typically means more points and a more fluid offense, but it has always felt like those ought to just be separate stats that we evaluate individually rather than in relation to each other. So someone enlighten me please!

some swear by that stat. Others feel overrated because they believe it was originally intended to gauge "passing ability". But those turnovers that result from say an offensive foul or stepping out of bounds have nothing to do with passing ability.
 
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Totally fair, I don't think it's applicable for all positions and for all teams. One could say, however, that in a Mooney style of ball with the Princeton O, assists are critical for those at all positions, even as a Center. I also think it's a stronger overall season and team statistic, and less so for individual performances.
 
Here’s a Basketball 101 question that must have a very logical answer, but I don’t know what it is… Why is assist-to-turnover ratio a thing that we measure? Are the two really even connected closely enough that it provides any meaningful insight? In some ways it feels like we’re putting together a Dunks-to-Timeouts-Remaining ratio of two mostly unrelated things.

Obviously you don’t want turnovers, and I realize that more assists typically means more points and a more fluid offense, but it has always felt like those ought to just be separate stats that we evaluate individually rather than in relation to each other. So someone enlighten me please!
The stat only makes sense for point guards in my opinion. The reason the ratio is important is that you expect primary ball handlers to have more turnovers since they have the ball more often. You offset the fact that the raw number of turnovers will be higher, even if they are really good ball handlers, by comparing it to assists which should also be higher for primary ball handlers as well.

Kenpom attempts to normalize the stats separately with assist rate and turnover rate.
 
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FDU just played NJIT last night, a now 1-9 team, preseason second to last in the America East. Pulled out a narrow win 73-71, they now have a 3-Game win streak (which should not get overlooked despite subpar competition)

Roberts was 3-8 from the field, 1-4 from 3, but made up for it with 8-11 at the line to reach joint top scorer status.

However, play of the game was a Tip in at the end with 2 seconds left to snatch the win by Joe Munden.

Teams with momentum have shown in the past they can be a Spider killer, we'll see if that's the case tomorrow, but they're not a great team
 
The stat only makes sense for point guards in my opinion. The reason the ratio is important is that you expect primary ball handlers to have more turnovers since they have the ball more often. You offset the fact that the raw number of turnovers will be higher, even if they are really good ball handlers, by comparing it to assists which should also be higher for primary ball handlers as well.

Kenpom attempts to normalize the stats separately with assist rate and turnover rate.
Separately unless you are me and try to combine them... 🤣
 
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Spiders -16.5. This feels a little overinflated due to our Drake performance. Kinda expect us to revert back to slow starts. Hope that’s wrong. I’d bang FDU w the points. This is not like the 5 star lock of the year texts I get from weird numbers every NFL week. Lukewarm 2 star like. Bet enough to cover the free taco coupons that u apparently won’t receive.
 
Let's hope their 362 out of 363 teams kenpom defense shows up tonight and not their two best performance both against the A-10.
OT loss at Loyola and 17 point win at St Joe...

It looks like after 5 minutes in the 2nd half of both games they started playing well.
I believe they outscored Loyola 32-20 St Joes 45-25.
 
3 Game win streak makes me think the latter. I think this game will be a single digit difference and piss off a lot of people in this thread. I hope I'm wrong and am rooting for a 20+ point win for the boys tonight!
 
Spiders -16.5. This feels a little overinflated due to our Drake performance. Kinda expect us to revert back to slow starts. Hope that’s wrong. I’d bang FDU w the points. This is not like the 5 star lock of the year texts I get from weird numbers every NFL week. Lukewarm 2 star like. Bet enough to cover the free taco coupons that u apparently won’t receive.
I think this started at -18 yesterday.
Looking at kenpom, they are ranked 328. They have one really bad blowout loss to Pitt by 20+, and lost to Longwood and St. Peters by double digits. I would stay away on this one altogether - that is my expert opinion haha.

I feel like this is a 9 point Spider win, but could see us winning big if we come out motivated again.
 
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I think this started at -18 yesterday.
Looking at kenpom, they are ranked 328. They have one really bad blowout loss to Pitt by 20+, and lost to Longwood and St. Peters by double digits. I would stay away on this one altogether - that is my expert opinion haha.

I feel like this is a 9 point Spider win, but could see us winning big if we come out motivated again.

If the 1.5 pts screw me it’s coming off the Pig Beach tab.
 
Do I see they have a starting lineup of 5'8", 5'9", 6'2", 6'4", and 6'6"?

It may be time for another "Quinn, Spin, and In" show...
 
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On another note, do we normally try to angle opponents’ wing players to the baseline as we are doing tonight on defense? I haven’t noticed it before but may have missed it. I guess we don’t want them shooting threes and would rather them drive the lane and get stuffed by Quinn since we have a big height advantage?
 
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