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A-10 Tournament Projected Seedings

That is assuming VCU loses at home to Duquesne and wins away at Davidson.
Not sure that is most likely outcome.
 
urmite said:
That is assuming VCU loses at home to Duquesne and wins away at Davidson.
Not sure that is most likely outcome.
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The projected winner is in red. If you change the winner, it modifies the bracket. A VCU win over Davidson on Friday, makes VCU the 6th seed and Duquesne the 7th seed vs. GW, assuming everything else is equal. The winner would play Richmond.
 
Yes - these projections are good for statistics students who like to play with numbers - otherwise not much value at this point................
 
I would love for Bona to somehow get the third seed but I don't think that's happening. So in that case I want Rhody playing Davidson in its first game.
 
URmite is correct.

If the projected winners play out then we (2) get the winner of Davidson (7) vs GW (10). If the games go to the favorites with the exception of VCU wins at Davidson then VCU moves up to the 6 and Davidson drops to the 8 and we (2) get the winner of Duquesne (7) vs GW (10).

If Duquesne pulls the upset at VCU and VCU does the same at Davidson, then Duquesne slides up to the 6, Davidson drops to the 8 and VCU ends up at 7 vs GW (10).

Bottomline is we need to win these last two to secure the 2 seed. There are lots of scenarios to play out and I would expect a couple of upsets. But the Spiders control their own destiny for the #2 seed. I like our chances with extra rest against any of the teams we would likely have to play.
 
Eight Legger said:
I would love for Bona to somehow get the third seed but I don't think that's happening. So in that case I want Rhody playing Davidson in its first game.
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I don't think it possible for us to get the #2 and SBU to get the #3.

It's mostly us #2 and URI #3. There are a handful of scenarios were it is SLU #3 and one where Duquesne is be #3.
 
Duquesne has swept the season series against the teams tied for fourth, so they will have the edge against any of them in tiebreaker scenarios.
 
SpiderVol said:
I don't think it possible for us to get the #2 and SBU to get the #3.
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Correct...basically any scenario that gets Bona at the #3 involves a tie with us that they would win, pushing us to the 4 slot.

There is, however, a scenario in which Bona gets the 2 and we get the 3. It involves a 3-way tie with URI at 12-6. Rhody gets pushed to the 4 due to 0-2 vs. Dayton, and then Bona gets the head-to-head over us.
 
SFspidur said:
Correct...basically any scenario that gets Bona at the #3 involves a tie with us that they would win, pushing us to the 4 slot.

There is, however, a scenario in which Bona gets the 2 and we get the 3. It involves a 3-way tie with URI at 12-6. Rhody gets pushed to the 4 due to 0-2 vs. Dayton, and then Bona gets the head-to-head over us.
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It's possible to have a 4-way tie for 2nd, correct?
I don't think that would shake out well for us, as we'd be 1-2 against either combination.
Let's just not find out.
 
ChoppinBroccoli said:
It's possible to have a 4-way tie for 2nd, correct?
I don't think that would shake out well for us, as we'd be 1-2 against either combination.
Let's just not find out.
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Yes, that’s the only way we miss out on the double bye. We’d lose out 1-2 against the 12-6 group and get the 5 seed.
 
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SFspidur said:
Yes, that’s the only way we miss out on the double bye. We’d lose out 1-2 against the 10-6 group and get the 5 seed.
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If the 4th team is St. Louis, I believe URI would also be 1-2.
Either way, it puts us on the wrong side of the bracket. (Unless you're trying to ensure a game vs Dayton)
 
Yeah, my bad, there are ways for SLU to be involved and for URI to have sole possession of 2nd and we lose out in a 3-way tie and get the 5 seed.
 
SFspidur said:
Correct...basically any scenario that gets Bona at the #3 involves a tie with us that they would win, pushing us to the 4 slot.

There is, however, a scenario in which Bona gets the 2 and we get the 3. It involves a 3-way tie with URI at 12-6. Rhody gets pushed to the 4 due to 0-2 vs. Dayton, and then Bona gets the head-to-head over us.
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If we go 12-6, we would need to win our tourney no matter what seed we get.
 
Updated scenarios for the double byes. We're locked in at the 2 or 3, and the only way we don't get the 2 is if we lose to Duquesne and Rhody beats both Dayton and UMass.

Still a tiny handful of scenarios in which Duquesne or SLU could sneak in and grab the 3 from Rhody.

 
There is now a 3-way tie for the 4th seed. It's looking very likely we will clinch the 2 seed tonight.
The winner of the Davidson/VCU game will be the 7 seed, and will play either GW or La Salle.
So those are our 4 possible Quarterfinal opponents, assuming Dayton holds on.
 
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ChoppinBroccoli said:
There is now a 3-way tie for the 4th seed. It's looking very likely we will clinch the 2 seed tonight.
The winner of the Davidson/VCU game will be the 7 seed, and will play either GW or La Salle.
So those are our 4 possible Quarterfinal opponents, assuming Dayton holds on.
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And if Davidson loses, it damages their already fragile profile as an opponent.
 
Updated double-bye scenarios...and you'll be able to cut it down to just the top half of this table in about 20 minutes.

 
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urmite said:
So going 3-0 against them wouldn’t have any benefit? If they are NET 74 after?
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It would be great if that happened. Not only would going 3-0 against a top 75 team look good, but it would give us a combined 1 quad 1 and 2 quad 2 wins against them if they finish top 75. If they finish 76 or lower, change a quad 1 to quad 3, and it becomes 2 quad 2 wins and 1 quad 3 win. Big difference, especially considering we only have 2 quad 1 wins now, so getting that 3rd quad 1 win, while we are competing against multiple teams who have 5 and 6 quad 1 wins, would look a heck of a lot better for us.
 
Ironic that the "NET is crazy/stupid/rigged/flawed" crowd is pulling so hard for Davidson to move up two spots.
Only in a crazy/stupid/rigged/flawed NET world could a 15-14 Atlantic 10 team be considered a Quad 1.

If we went back to the "old RPI system," both Davidson games (and a hypothetical third) would be in column 3.
 
ChoppinBroccoli said:
Ironic that the "NET is crazy/stupid/rigged/flawed" crowd is pulling so hard for Davidson to move up two spots.
Only in a crazy/stupid/rigged/flawed NET world could a 15-14 Atlantic 10 team be considered a Quad 1.

If we went back to the "old RPI system," both Davidson games (and a hypothetical third) would be in column 3.
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Hopefully you aren’t including me in that group. I would simply rather the committee have another shorthand point in the chance they over look the 16-15 record to some degree.

Besides it gives me another reason to root for a VCU beat down. :)
 
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urmite said:
Hopefully you aren’t including me in that group. I would simply rather the committee have another shorthand point in the chance they over look the 16-15 record to some degree.

Besides it gives me another reason to root for a VCU beat down. :)
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I am not.
VCU is the higher-rated team. Davidson is the home team. Whoever wins should get a slight boost. Either one would be a solid Q2 opponent in the Quarter-final. As much as it would help our odds to advance, I don't think it serves us well for the opponent to be La Salle or GW.

I will certainly root for Davidson. Rooting against the Rams is always a plus, and I have a somewhat irrational fear of facing them in the tourney. I don't think we've ever beaten them in the tourney.

Weird - I just noticed that all four of our possible opponents are teams we played twice during the regular season.
 
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ChoppinBroccoli said:
There is now a 3-way tie for the 4th seed. It's looking very likely we will clinch the 2 seed tonight.
The winner of the Davidson/VCU game will be the 7 seed, and will play either GW or La Salle.
So those are our 4 possible Quarterfinal opponents, assuming Dayton holds on.
Click to expand...
Looking at the 10 seed
GW lost a home game for the first time ever to Fordham and now get play at Dayton.
LaSalle is away at St Joe in the last Big Five game and has tiebreaker over GW.
 
Am I correct that if UR & URI win, we want SLU to win so the seeds are
3 URI
4 SLU
5 SBU
6 Duquesne

But if UR & UMass win SLU is either 6 or 3 (and facing 6 Duquesne, hopefully still there kryptonite)
 
urmite said:
Am I correct that if UR & URI win, we want SLU to win so the seeds are
3 URI
4 SLU
5 SBU
6 Duquesne

But if UR & UMass win SLU is either 6 or 3 (and facing 6 Duquesne, hopefully still there kryptonite)
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I agree that Line 2 is the "best case" and I was thinking we'd want to avoid Line 4. But having SLU on our half of the bracket might not be so bad, as they are now the 2nd best win we can get.
 
ChoppinBroccoli said:
I agree that Line 2 is the "best case" and I was thinking we'd want to avoid Line 4. But having SLU on our half of the bracket might not be so bad, as they are now the 2nd best win we can get.
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Sort of double edged sword or playing the cards you are dealt.

Best win is good, weaker win may be better than best loss.

Hopefully we have a better plan (or execution?) than the last meeting.
 
Playing vcu in quarters is Mooney’s worst nightmare. We’ll have tough matchup regardless but as long as we beat Duquesne I’d root hard for either team to lose first round & take easier quarters allowing us hopefully to be better rested in semis.
 
I don't want to see VCU in the tourney either. They are a wounded bird for sure and we should win, but it is a rivalry game and that comes with even extra passion, emotion, and uncertainty.

I'd take another shot at Davidson over that. I think we match up really well with Davidson.
 
Agree with GK, we want the easiest matchup possible in the quarters. I think getting to the final with one solid win along the way should be enough to feel good about an at-large, so that would ideally be in the semis against URI or SLU (Duquense not as favorable for résumé purposes, and neither is Bona, but only way the Bonnies end up on our side of the bracket involves us losing this Friday.)

Give me UMass or GW as co-first choices for the quarters, and if not, then Davidson. Don't want to play VCU due to uncertainties of the rivalry.
 
SFspidur said:
Agree with GK, we want the easiest matchup possible in the quarters. I think getting to the final with one solid win along the way should be enough to feel good about an at-large, so that would ideally be in the semis against URI or SLU (Duquense not as favorable for résumé purposes, and neither is Bona, but only way the Bonnies end up on our side of the bracket involves us losing this Friday.)

Give me UMass or GW as co-first choices for the quarters, and if not, then Davidson. Don't want to play VCU due to uncertainties of the rivalry.
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I don't think UMass can be in our Quarter. They're locked into the 8/9 game, unless I'm missing some way they can win a 3-way tiebreak with Davidson and VCU.

I can see that side of it. I was thinking just get two Quad 2 wins in our next two games and we're in. But perhaps the "easiest" path to still playing on Saturday is best. A lot of teams will fall off the bubble between now and next Saturday. Hopefully.
 
With the lackluster showings we've had in the A10 tournament we need the easiest opponents possible every step of the way.
 
ChoppinBroccoli said:
I don't think UMass can be in our Quarter. They're locked into the 8/9 game, unless I'm missing some way they can win a 3-way tiebreak with Davidson and VCU.
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You are correct. The only way UMass could end up in a tie for 7th is if they win and VCU beats Davidson, and they're all 9-9. VCU wins the tiebreaker in that case by virtue of 2-1 against the group (2-0 against Davidson and 0-1 against UMass). UMass would be 1-1 and Davidson 1-2.

Actually maybe a better shot for La Salle to get the 10 seed than GW since GW is playing Dayton and La Salle is playing St. Joe's, and La Salle has head-to-head tiebreaker against GW if those games go as expected. 10 and 11 of course both on our side of the bracket, but 10 obviously more direct path to facing us.
 
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SFspidur said:
You are correct. The only way UMass could end up in a tie for 7th is if they win and VCU beats Davidson, and they're all 9-9. VCU wins the tiebreaker in that case by virtue of 2-1 against the group (2-0 against Davidson and 0-1 against UMass). UMass would be 1-1 and Davidson 1-2.

Actually maybe a better shot for La Salle to get the 10 seed than GW since GW is playing Dayton and La Salle is playing St. Joe's, and La Salle has head-to-head tiebreaker against GW if those games go as expected. 10 and 11 of course both on our side of the bracket, but 10 obviously more direct path to facing us.
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Not sure what to expect in LaSalle St Joe. It is at Hagan. There is no Croswell.
But Explorers beat Bonnies in first game without Croswell, just not sure how...
 
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