If I'm reading that chart correctly, the idea that we *could* finish anywhere from 5th to 13th with only 2 games remaining is just bonkers.
(I realize the yellow boxes are unlikely)
(I realize the yellow boxes are unlikely)
Top 4 seed
- Thread starter VT4700
- Start date
Thanks for clarifying that. I was reading it by the numbers not the colors and thought it said the highest we could be was 10th. And that didn't seem right.
For our easiest path to Saturday I think we should be 9th with SBU 8th. That seems like it would work out well.
By my calculations, we are now locked into playing a Pillow Fight game.
If we win on Saturday to get to 8–10, by my count there could be as many five teams needing a tiebreaker...us, Bona, Joe's, Davidson, and La Salle. Needless to say, we don't fare well against that group.
We're going to finish ahead of three teams no matter what (Loyola, URI, UMass), so we need a way to place ahead of three more, and I don't see a way.
La Salle and Davidson could both lose their final games and finish a game back of us, but we'd still need to beat out one more in a tiebreaker. We could straight up tie with St. Joe's but we lose that head-to-head, and if Bona also loses to finish at 8–10 that could be a three-way tie but we also come out at the bottom of that tiebreaker at 0–3 against the group.
If Bona is involved in the tie, wins by La Salle and/or Davidson to add more teams to the 8–10 tie don't help us get over the hump, as in any of those scenarios we still come out at the bottom of the heap thanks to Bona sweeping us.
If Bona is not involved, a three-way tie of us, St. Joe's, and La Salle doesn't help us since we're 0–2 against the group.
The only scenario where we don't automatically come out at the bottom of an initial tiebreaker then is if it's us, St. Joe's, and Davidson, and we'd all be 1–1 against the group. But then it goes to record against the top seed and work your way down. St. Joe's wins that one being 0–1 against VCU while UR and Davidson are 0–2.
Got all that?
If we win on Saturday to get to 8–10, by my count there could be as many five teams needing a tiebreaker...us, Bona, Joe's, Davidson, and La Salle. Needless to say, we don't fare well against that group.
We're going to finish ahead of three teams no matter what (Loyola, URI, UMass), so we need a way to place ahead of three more, and I don't see a way.
La Salle and Davidson could both lose their final games and finish a game back of us, but we'd still need to beat out one more in a tiebreaker. We could straight up tie with St. Joe's but we lose that head-to-head, and if Bona also loses to finish at 8–10 that could be a three-way tie but we also come out at the bottom of that tiebreaker at 0–3 against the group.
If Bona is involved in the tie, wins by La Salle and/or Davidson to add more teams to the 8–10 tie don't help us get over the hump, as in any of those scenarios we still come out at the bottom of the heap thanks to Bona sweeping us.
If Bona is not involved, a three-way tie of us, St. Joe's, and La Salle doesn't help us since we're 0–2 against the group.
The only scenario where we don't automatically come out at the bottom of an initial tiebreaker then is if it's us, St. Joe's, and Davidson, and we'd all be 1–1 against the group. But then it goes to record against the top seed and work your way down. St. Joe's wins that one being 0–1 against VCU while UR and Davidson are 0–2.
Got all that?
The season has been a failure.
so, a sweet Tuesday night of Spider basketball and $17 beers at Barclays. I hate myself.
With any luck, we end up with the 12-seed and play at 11:30am, lose to URI or UMass, and hit the road home at 2:00.
Right now we would play URI, then Mason, then Fordham. Honestly that's about the best possible scenario for us, so I hope it holds.
Agreed. Just got back from the game and did the same calculation. Only scenario we reach next level tie breaker is a 3-way with Joe's and Davidson. Like you said, that tiebreaker goes to Joe's for only losing once to vcu.
There are 5 teams in play for spots 8-12, and 2 avoid Tuesday games. In order to be in the 3 way tie above you have to give sbu the win on Saturday, which gives them the 8th seed. So, the tiebreaker above is for 9th, and Joe's gets it.
SBU, Joe's, Davidson, UR, and La Salle could all finish 8-10. Any combination is possible, and we lose every one!
UR/Joe's
UR/Joe's/SBU
UR/Joe's/Davidson
UR/Joe's/La Salle
UR/Joe's/Davidson/SBU
UR/Joe's/Davidson/La Salle
UR/Joe's/La Salle/SBU
UR/Joe's/Davidson/La Salle/SBU
Unbelievable!
Makes my decision easy on whether to attend the last game. I'll be in Wilmington, DE for the women's tourny instead. Shorter drive than coming to Richmond. There's a W! If the women, don't make it to Saturday, I'll consider driving to VA but only for the Lacrosse game at uva!
UR/Joe's
UR/Joe's/SBU
UR/Joe's/Davidson
UR/Joe's/La Salle
UR/Joe's/Davidson/SBU
UR/Joe's/Davidson/La Salle
UR/Joe's/La Salle/SBU
UR/Joe's/Davidson/La Salle/SBU
Unbelievable!
Makes my decision easy on whether to attend the last game. I'll be in Wilmington, DE for the women's tourny instead. Shorter drive than coming to Richmond. There's a W! If the women, don't make it to Saturday, I'll consider driving to VA but only for the Lacrosse game at uva!
Its even more unbelievable when you consider how bad the A10 is this year. Sadly, nothing will change next year. We sold out the final home game giving tickets away so all is well. We are so far away from being a serious contender, even in a weak A10. The leadership is not in place for a real turnaround at UR. I don't think it matters who the players are at this point. Unless something changes with the BOT and administration at UR where winning is valued, I fear we are stuck in neutral with no hope of future success.
8legs1dream
Team Manager
I think you can make the argument that every team in the A10 will be improved next season besides 2-3 (we would be included in that group of course). This is a scary proposition considering how much we have struggled this season already.
Mr Spider u r a dedicated fan but weren’t u done attending when we were eliminated as an at large?
I bet you a million dollars St. Joe's knew they could potentially earn a bye with a victory last night. They wanted it! Despite having an equally bad season, they wanted it more.
I bet you another million it wasn't even discussed with our team. Just next game mentality. You don't think it might provide a little motivation to the guys to discuss the situation. Nope. Just next game. Same 'ole shit. Don't get too caught up in the results, just give it your best. Well, without goals, do you even give it your best?
I bet you another million it wasn't even discussed with our team. Just next game mentality. You don't think it might provide a little motivation to the guys to discuss the situation. Nope. Just next game. Same 'ole shit. Don't get too caught up in the results, just give it your best. Well, without goals, do you even give it your best?
Nah. That’s what most said this past offseason about A10 how improved it would be. In fact think it’s the 1 thing spiderdad & 4700 agreed on. I was like pump the brakes the A10 will let u down. The only thing u can count on w A10 is VCU. And us helping them along their way.
Yes. The last game I attended until last night was the vcu game in January. That one finished our at-large chances in my estimation. I'll be there when we are 0-8 as long as there is still a chance for a bid if we win out, but once we're out, we're out. The only reason I was there last night is because we had a shot at a bye to position ourselves better for the A10 tournament.
Now that we blew that, Saturday's game means nothing! I'll see you in Brooklyn when we have something to play for again!
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Our at large chances pretty much went out the window when we lost to W&M…you were more optimistic than most hanging in there until VCU.
I know. In realistic terms, we were done much earlier than mid to late January. But in mathematical terms, there was still a chance. If there's a remote chance, I'll be there swingin'
In all seriousness, it might be best to lose Saturday. I didn't look at the scenarios for that, but I would imagine it would put us at an 11 or 12 seed, which would put us opposite side of Dayton until the weekend. Let someone else knock them out.
Come to think of it...the coaches must have had a similar strategy last night to get on the opposite side of vcu. We just don't give the coaches enough credit.
Note: vcu is always lower case in my post. We should all do that. That or don't ever mention them.
Come to think of it...the coaches must have had a similar strategy last night to get on the opposite side of vcu. We just don't give the coaches enough credit.
Note: vcu is always lower case in my post. We should all do that. That or don't ever mention them.
yeah the bracket I posted yesterday showing us potentially playing BONNE in an 8/9 game and then vcu thxfully won't happen now.
Great job lower-casing those who should not otherwise be named!!
Truth. Right here. It was clear St. Joes wanted that game and likewise that we came to compete.
those first 4 minutes, nobody on either team wanted that game.
Wasn't St. Joe's missing 2 starters and 1 or 2 other guys? I mean that's just pathetic. A team that was "worse" that us (at least record-wise) missing 40% of its starting lineup still took us behind the woodshed and it was never a game in the second half. Just absolutely unacceptable.
00
Then I saw Obinna had missed the last 3 games and only played 16 minutes a game the 9 before that.
Klaczek had missed 8 of the last 9 games, not sure if they count as starters...
They were missing 2 starters up front. I was surprised how big the replacements were.
Then I saw Obinna had missed the last 3 games and only played 16 minutes a game the 9 before that.
Klaczek had missed 8 of the last 9 games, not sure if they count as starters...
I still like my old name for them "sobs" (school on broad street).
Wait, wouldn't that be an acknowledgment that we're located within the city limits? That can't be right.
Yes, that was very reminiscent of the offense when I used to go to 6:30 am pick up games on Wednesdays. After about 5 minutes you are like WTF are we doing out here? Same feel to this game.
so what am I rooting for now? Thoroughly too lazy to try and create scenarios for myself.
I'd like a win tonight, but where does that leave us? The URI / GooMoos / Fordham road is the one we want for sure, if that is still in play.
Selfishly, I'd like the late afternoon game at Barclays for work purposes (i.e. not to have to take a half day for my $17 beer and beatdown, before Pig Beach even opens.)
I'd like a win tonight, but where does that leave us? The URI / GooMoos / Fordham road is the one we want for sure, if that is still in play.
Selfishly, I'd like the late afternoon game at Barclays for work purposes (i.e. not to have to take a half day for my $17 beer and beatdown, before Pig Beach even opens.)
We need LaSalle to lose and/or Davidson to lose, to avoid the bottom four of the league and first round play-in. We went from top 4 to bottom 4.
We've been guaranteed to play in the first round since Wednesday night. Bottom 6 play on Tuesday.
