Standings question

[SpiderDad75]

The latest standings are:
Davidson - 10-2
VCU - 10-3
Dayton - 10-3
St. Louis - 8-4
St Bona - 7-4
UR - 8-5

This is for our math experts 😃 IF we win out, to make the top four we need help...right? Who would we need that help from? I just would like to know scenarios...not don't worry we won't, coach sucks, etc...just the scenarios and the chances(asking for miracle in that respect😂). If I'm looking at it correctly...it seems almost improssible statistaclly. That would mean no top 4 and we would begin play on Wed against who or is it too soon for a potential A10 tourney bracket talk?🕷️🏀

 

[8legs1dream]

I did see this chart floating around the twittersphere the other day which outlines the probabilities of where each team will land. 6th, 7th, and 5th are our top three most likely final seeds according to it.


So it is possible that we claw our way into a double bye, just highly unlikely statistically speaking (10% chance).

And yes probably a little too soon for actual bracket talk. I have mentioned a few times in other threads what our path would look like "if the A10 tournament started today". Still a lot of movement can and will happen all around the conference.

 

[Eight Legger]

Assuming we win out, then Bona and SLU also would have five losses. In that case, if SLU or Bona only play 17 league games somehow, we would then be ahead of them by percentage.

If we all finish 13-5, then the H2H would have us 3-1, Bona 2-2, and SLU 1-3, so we would get the fourth seed if I have interpreted things correctly.

 

[ur2K]

Best thread to follow at this time of year - https://www.basketballforum.com/threads/if-the-a10-tournament-started-today-2022-edition.693087/

 

[SpiderDad75]

Thanks guys...I'm terrible at Math and that is why I teach History 😃 Do the teams playing less games benefit them any? Last year was a crazy year and we didn't get that full schedule and didn't know if a different formula would come in to play.

 

[8legs1dream]

Thanks guys...I'm terrible at Math and that is why I teach History 😃 Do the teams playing less games benefit them any? Last year was a crazy year and we didn't get that full schedule and didn't know if a different formula would come in to play.

the "pillow fight" teams have no chance, however you can win it without getting the double bye (our neighbors pulled that off a few years ago). But yes, usually both teams in the final had the double bye.

 

[urmite]

the "pillow fight" teams have no chance, however you can win it without getting the double bye (our neighbors pulled that off a few years ago). But yes, usually both teams in the final had the double bye.

I think he meant playing less than 18 regular season games.

If same wins then yes, if same losses then no.

 

[8legs1dream]

I think he meant playing less than 18 regular season games.

If same wins then yes, if same losses then no.

Right you are! I read over that too fast, oops. I don't think it will play a huge role this season since we are on track to get 98% of the games in.

 

[Eight Legger]

It would just go by percentage, so 13-5 > 12-5.

 

[urmite]

If I don't look at Davidson (they aren't losing 4 games) or us or teams with more than 5 A-10 losses then remaining games are:

Dayton 10-3 (10-4 if we win out) St Joe & LaSalle away, Davidson & UMass at home
VCU 10-3 (10-4 if we win out) SLU & UMass away, SBU & GMU at home
SLU 8-4 (8-5) Davidson & URI away, VCU, St Joe & LaSalle at home
SBU 7-4 (7-5) VCU & ST Joe away, URI, UMass, & Duquesne at home
GMU 5-5 (5-5) Davidson & VCU away, Fordham & St Joe away, GW & UMass at home

If we win out (only because he asked) we tie head to head with VCU, SLU, GMU
We win Dayton & SBU.
We lose Davidson

 

[urmite]

It would just go by percentage, so 13-5 > 12-5.

Yes and 13-4 > 13-5 that is why I said the quickest way is to look at which is tied wins or losses.

 

[Eight Legger]

True but if we win out, then Bona, SLU and Dayton can’t end up 13-4, so we’d be fourth.

 

[8legs1dream]

If we win all of our remaining games and the rest of the A10 loses all of their remaining games we have a legit shot at the double bye.

 

[SFspidur]

0.12% shot at the top seed...we've got this.

 

[Eight Legger]

Basically if we win out we get the double bye. If we don’t, it’s going to be tough.

 

[urmite]

0.12% shot at the top seed...we've got this.

I see the combined 1 to 4 seed is about 16%
I wonder if that is simply if every game in the A-10 is 50/50 the rest of the season.

Which I assume isn't "actually" true.

 

[SFspidur]

He uses simulations based on KenPom win probabilities.

 

[urmite]

He uses simulations based on KenPom win probabilities.

Good, that means it is more accurate.

 

[97spiderfan]

Basically if we win out we get the double bye. If we don’t, it’s going to be tough.

I'd be more interested to find out where we end up if we go 1-4 or 2-3, as they are far more likely scenarios.

 

[GKiller]

Spiderdad if we r not top 4 we would play Thurs. not Wednesday. The quarters r Friday. Omg if we actually play Wed it means we fell to a bottom 4 seed.

 

[SpiderDad75]

Spiderdad if we r not top 4 we would play Thurs. not Wednesday. The quarters r Friday. Omg if we actually play Wed it means we fell to a bottom 4 seed.

Ok thanks...that def helps. Trying to make hotel arrangements. Not sure why I was thinking if we didn't get the top 4 then we played starting Wed. Maybe it's my extremely old age of 46 😂

 

[8legs1dream]

Ok thanks...that def helps. Trying to make hotel arrangements. Not sure why I was thinking if we didn't get the top 4 then we played starting Wed. Maybe it's my extremely old age of 46 😂

Here is last years bracket and sessions schedule to give you an idea: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_10_Men's_Basketball_Tournament

 

[97spiderfan]

Ok thanks...that def helps. Trying to make hotel arrangements. Not sure why I was thinking if we didn't get the top 4 then we played starting Wed. Maybe it's my extremely old age of 46 😂

Who you calling old?

 

[SpiderDad75]

Who you calling old?

My self 😂😂 unfortunately

 

[Long Island Spiders]

The latest standings are:
Davidson - 10-2
VCU - 10-3
Dayton - 10-3
St. Louis - 8-4
St Bona - 7-4
UR - 8-5

This is for our math experts 😃 IF we win out, to make the top four we need help...right? Who would we need that help from? I just would like to know scenarios...not don't worry we won't, coach sucks, etc...just the scenarios and the chances(asking for miracle in that respect😂). If I'm looking at it correctly...it seems almost improssible statistaclly. That would mean no top 4 and we would begin play on Wed against who or is it too soon for a potential A10 tourney bracket talk?🕷️🏀

When can we expect Dji? We need him!

 

[spider fan]

My self 😂😂 unfortunately

c'mon now - 46 was a good year - I made the scene for the first time!

 

[SpiderDad75]

When can we expect Dji? We need him!

He worked with the team fully yesterday. Still not a 100 but progress 😀 maybe just maybe VCU but nothing definitive.

 

[Long Island Spiders]

He worked with the team fully yesterday. Still not a 100 but progress 😀 maybe just maybe VCU but nothing definitive.

Let’s gooo! Would be awesome to see him get some high quality minutes.

 

[SpiderDad75]

Let’s gooo! Would be awesome to see him get some high quality minutes.

I agree…but I have to be realistic too. IF he’s ready hopefully he make an impact with whatever mins he gets. I think right now it’s more mental for him bc he’s never really had a lower leg/ankle injury. 🙏🏼🙏🏼

 

[GKiller]

Let’s gooo! Would be awesome to see him get some high quality minutes.

But what in Dji's two seasons under Moon would make you think that could happen

 

[Long Island Spiders]

But what in Dji's two seasons under Moon would make you think that could happen

Let’s dream, GK!

 

[SpiderDad75]

But what in Dji's two seasons under Moon would make you think that could happen

Let that man dream😀

 

[wr70beh]

Best thread to follow at this time of year - https://www.basketballforum.com/threads/if-the-a10-tournament-started-today-2022-edition.693087/

so it looks like we’ll beat a bottom 4 squad on Thursday and get beat down by VCU on Friday. 7-23 coming up. It’s all on Mooney.

 

[SpiderDad75]

so it looks like we’ll beat a bottom 4 squad on Thursday and get beat down by VCU on Friday. 7-23 coming up. It’s all on Mooney.

Way to stay on topic👍

 

[spiderman]

 

[urmite]

Way too short, Sman. Here is my long version for tonight...

 

[GKiller]

Ok thanks...that def helps. Trying to make hotel arrangements. Not sure why I was thinking if we didn't get the top 4 then we played starting Wed. Maybe it's my extremely old age of 46 😂

u might want to keep Wednesday open after all

 

[SpiderLaw]

u might want to keep Wednesday open after all

If we lose out, what is the lowest possible seed?

 

[SFspidur]

I believe 10th is the worst we can do.

 

[urmite]

I believe 10th is the worst we can do.

So Wednesday is not possible…